Did you see Poet’s post earlier about autopsies and pneumonia? But you’re right about the Germans being very advanced with nutritional/herbal medicine. They have all the major herbs standardized for medical prescription. I have a number of German textbooks in various areas of neuromusculoskeletal medicine and they are more precise and advanced than what I’ve read in the US or in the Commonwealth country literature.
Yeah , they really hammer out the kids today. its just wrong… My school wants my daughter vaccinated for hep b and hep a – Hep B , per CDC site, cannot get it from kissing, touching , sharing utensils… etc… but is transmitted by sexual intercourse , sharing needles, surgery etc… Why the heck does a 5 year old need this??. “NO RISK REWARD HERE” same with Hep A the risk is way tooo small for the reward of these vaccines.
Nice article that tells how the virus progresses in your body
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/the-story-of-a-coronavirus-infection.html
It’s clearly serious.
Please don’t confuse my suggestion that the CFR is currently overstated, with the suggestion that this isn’t any more serious than 'flu. Purely in terms of deaths, I believe it is at a minimum 10x more serious than 'flu, and quite possibly 40x as serious.
And if our hospitals get overwhelmed, that could rise to 80x as serious or more. And yes, I do expect that people I know will die. And that makes me sad.
There’s definitely something wrong with Germany’s numbers. On the worldometer page, yesterday’s numbers show 84 dead and 2 serious cases. Today’s numbers show 94 dead and still 2 serious cases. That can’t be right. I think we can ignore Germany’s numbers for now, except, perhaps, the known cases.
Could have at least giving us a happy ending.
https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3
I usually get blocked from FT articles by the paywall, but for some reason I could see this one.
FT doesn’t want me to cut and paste as it’s a copyright violation apparently, so I will paraphrase:
Germany running 160,000 test per week and increasing - more even than South Korea.
Germany detecting many infections with few or no symptoms with much higher rates of survical which explains low fatality rate.
Also notes that more than 80 per cent of all people infected are younger than 60 - which does seem to match what we are seeing in US so I may have been wrong to reject that as bad data.
End of paraphrasing.
It has crossed my mind that if countries run huge numbers of tests on completely asymptomatic people (e.g. Singapore and maybe now Germany) they may also suffer from a false positive problem. Let’s say a single test is 93% accurate (no idea how accurate this test is - just guessing), and it is run twice with two positive results being required for a confirmed case - so the double test is 99.5% accurate. Then if Germany runs 1,000 tests and gets ten positive results 5 of those will be real cases and 5 will be false positive results. So the number of reported cases will be twice as high as the actual number, which would make the fatality rate appear to be artifically lower.
This article (https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/continuing-coverage/coronavirus/ohio-department-of-health-says-100-000-ohioans-are-carrying-coronavirus) from 3/12 suggests that Ohio had at least 117,000 cases at that time despite reporting only 5 positive test results.
“We know now, just the fact of community spread says that at least 1%, at the very least 1% of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today,” said Dr. Amy Acton, Director of ODH. “We have 11.7 million people.”
According to the Governor Mike DeWine’s Office and the ODH, cases are expected to double every six days.
“Whenever you know of 2 people that have it due to community spread, then you can assume that 1% of your population has it,” said ODH Press Secretary Melanie Amato, citing a 2017 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the CDC.
I think the conclusion drawn by the newspaper is false, because it has arbitrarily decided that the “community” is the entire state. It feels more logical to me that we should assume that 1% of the community (township?/city?/county?) where the community spread occurred might be infected, but generalizing to the whole state is probably a stretch.
Still the implication is that there were hundreds of times more cases than were reported at that time.
That explanation only partly potentially explains the German numbers. Why was the serious/critical number static, despite ongoing deaths?
Update: the serious/critical number just increased to 23 (from 2) but it still doesn’t seem right. The Vo study implied that there aren’t huge numbers of asymptomatic carriers and other countries that have aggressive testing do not see such a low rate of death and serious, relative to overall cases.
If any country can be trusted for statistics it would be Germany. They are known through the years as perfectionists. My best guess is that they test a lot lot lot more than other countries. In Holland they only test if you are symptomatic AND older than 70 years… So, shown fatality rate will be high automaticly
Guys, the German numbers aren’t wrong. It’s because we only have relatively few old infected people and because of the best ICU system in the world. We have so few old infected since most of our infections have been imported from Italy or were spread during Carnival.
BTW, only because Quinines might be useful for acute cases, that doesn’t mean that it has any use as a daily supplement. The use of Quinine is risky and taking it too early might even inhibit the normal healthy immune response. This has been shown in a mouse model [1]. Check this post about the false information that is spread on the topic.
The numbers, as reported by worldometer, are definitely not correct. Last change was an increase of 24 deaths but the previous day, there were only 23 serious cases. Today, there are still 23 serious cases.
Testing doesn’t seem to be the whole story, particularly in light of the limited studies that have been done so far (one of which suggests the case count might only be 73% higher than official numbers).
However, the death numbers do seem to be increasing, so the reports may change.
Found this chart. Really good data.
Jim H,
I am also perplexed by case counts on the East coast versus West Coast, as well as different countries, and maybe there are different strains in different areas… More than the S and L strains? Approx 3 weeks ago when I first learned of the worldometersinfo website, I have been checking it daily and out of curiousity I created a Word document for myself after someone here had asked if anyone knew when cases first started showing in the U.S., so I scrolled all the way to the bottom of the site, copying and pasting as I went. Bits about what states had how many new cases and deaths. Now the U.S. has so many new cases (and it’s in third place, and soon will bypass China by the looks of it) it only shows the total number of new cases and deaths. In the beginning Washington cases had started showing up pretty regularly, going boom, but now New York’s has gone boom. Somewhere, here maybe?, I read initially that WA was our version of Wuhan, but now New York state has a LOT more cases than Washington. Today I was curious about case counts in each of the states and out of curiousity I clicked on the link “US”. Wow, New York now has 23,230 cases compared to Washington’s 2,221. I’ll post the chart showing the states below, but I don’t know what it will look like after pasting it.
Earlier tonight I read this online:
"Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R) seems to think that if given the choice, Americans 70 and over would be willing to risk getting coronavirus and possibly dying if it means stores re-open and the economy rebounds.
On Fox News Monday night, Patrick lamented not being asked how he would balance protecting some of the people most at-risk for contracting coronavirus — adults 65 and over — while keeping businesses up and running. “No one reached out to me and said, as a senior citizen, are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?” he said. “If that’s the exchange, I’m all in.” He’s completely disregarding the fact that 20-40’s are getting infected and seriously ill s well, in addition to a few even younger than that… Idiot.
| USA State | Total Cases | New Cases | Total Deaths | New Deaths | Active Cases |
| New York | 23,230 | +2,355 | 183 | +26 | 22,939 |
| New Jersey | 2,844 | 27 | 2,817 | ||
| Washington | 2,221 | 110 | 1,987 | ||
| California | 2,162 | +29 | 43 | +3 | 2,113 |
| Michigan | 1,328 | 15 | 1,313 | ||
| Illinois | 1,285 | 12 | 1,271 | ||
| Florida | 1,227 | 18 | 1,209 | ||
| Louisiana | 1,172 | 35 | 1,137 | ||
| Texas | 806 | 9 | 786 | ||
| Georgia | 803 | 26 | 777 | ||
| Massachusetts | 777 | 9 | 767 | ||
| Colorado | 720 | 7 | 713 | ||
| Pennsylvania | 644 | 6 | 638 | ||
| Tennessee | 615 | 2 | 613 | ||
| Ohio | 442 | 6 | 436 | ||
| Wisconsin | 416 | 5 | 410 | ||
| Connecticut | 415 | 10 | 405 | ||
| North Carolina | 410 | 410 | |||
| South Carolina | 299 | 5 | 294 | ||
| Maryland | 288 | 3 | 281 | ||
| Indiana | 259 | 7 | 252 | ||
| Utah | 257 | 1 | 256 | ||
| Virginia | 254 | 7 | 246 | ||
| Mississippi | 249 | 1 | 248 | ||
| Nevada | 245 | 4 | 241 | ||
| Minnesota | 235 | 1 | 210 | ||
| Arizona | 234 | 2 | 231 | ||
| Arkansas | 197 | 197 | |||
| Missouri | 196 | 5 | 191 | ||
| Alabama | 196 | 196 | |||
| Oregon | 191 | 5 | 186 | ||
| District of Columbia | 137 | 2 | 135 | ||
| Kentucky | 124 | 4 | 118 | ||
| Maine | 107 | 104 | |||
| Rhode Island | 106 | 106 | |||
| Iowa | 105 | 105 | |||
| New Hampshire | 101 | 1 | 100 | ||
| Delaware | 87 | +19 | 87 | ||
| New Mexico | 83 | 83 | |||
| Kansas | 82 | 2 | 80 | ||
| Oklahoma | 81 | 2 | 78 | ||
| Hawaii | 77 | 77 | |||
| Vermont | 75 | 5 | 70 | ||
| Nebraska | 50 | 50 | |||
| Idaho | 47 | 47 | |||
| Montana | 45 | 45 | |||
| Alaska | 36 | +4 | 36 | ||
| North Dakota | 32 | 32 | |||
| South Dakota | 28 | 1 | 21 | ||
| Wyoming | 26 | 26 | |||
| West Virginia | 20 | +4 | 20 | ||
| Diamond Princess Cruise | 49 | 49 | |||
| Grand Princess Cruise | 30 | 1 | 29 | ||
| Total: | 46,145 | 2,411 | 582 | 29 | 45,268 |