Tune in for a Peak Prosperity livecast on YouTube with Chris and Evie. They’ll be discussing the SVB banking collapse and laughing at the clown show that is Congress. See you in the live chat!
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/chris-evie-live-2/
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I feel like I need to be the voice of the “devil’s advocate”.
Dodd-Frank is the current law of the land that makes bail-outs illegal. Don’t think for a second that this law would not be repealed if enough pressure from the political elites were placed on congress. I have seen two national elections in a row with plenty of election fukcery and I am not convinced that there would be any political consequences for the politicians that voted for this.
I have had a great track record of correctly predicting future economic problems. What I have been nearly 100% incorrect about is when it will happen (I am always early) and I have been wrong most of the time about how our leaders deal with these economic blowups. Our leaders either refuse to follow the law or simply change the law when the wheels fall off the bus.
No one knows how the current financial problems will play out. The Federal Reserve has failed in meeting its three mandates for most of my life. I will admit that I was born when Carter was President and I saw my first presidential election when I was 5 months old (I don’t remember it). What I do know is that the dollar’s status as the world reserve currency is now under threat. This was not a concern in 2007-2008.
I see many people scream “bitcoin!”, “gold”, “silver” and I always roll my eyes. I see bitcoin as being worth less than zero. It represents the end product of making a ton of entropy (waste heat). How does this actually store wealth? Having faith in bitcoin requires the same thinking as feeding your dog expensive cuts of meat and expecting the resulting dog crap to be valuable. It is basically converting something of value into entropy and waste.
I see people talk about gold and silver. This makes more sense to me than bitcoin. How valuable is silver or gold? It has industrial uses. The main reason it has value is because people think that it has value. This is the same reasoning that the Dutch used in 1637 to assign value to a tulip bulb.
What is valuable? I think the most valuable thing in the world is a renewable source of food that can both give me the energy to stay alive and provide all the materials needed for my body to function. A large patch of clover that fixes nitrogen into the soil, provides bees with nectar, and fills our atmosphere with Oxygen is extremely valuable! Clean water that can be safely consumed without getting sick is extremely valuable.
We all need to kind of step back and stop worrying about the money in the banks. We can’t control what is going to happen. Many promises will be broken and many people are going to end up loosing a lot of money. What would you do with your cash even if you could pull it out of the bank? Holding a lot of cash creates a lot of risk for you and your family.
It is possible that the only way to win during the next few decades is to survive/thrive and create viable progeny that also survive/thrive and carry on. The Sun has enough fuel to continue living as a main sequence star for another 5 billion years. The Earth will likely only remain habitable for another 1 billion years. Yes, the end of the world will eventually happen. Until then, find happiness and joy where ever you can and brace yourself for a lot of uncertainty in the next year.
I was about to eat supper and remembered this bit. Good laugh for the times!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZwW7oEE91o
It’s fun to laugh and the posh neighborhood bank run, but a lot of people I know are really concerned about this situation because there could definitely be a lot of normal people supporting their families getting screwed by this.
For example, Etsy has been sending out emails telling sellers they aren’t getting deposits this weekend because of ties to SVB. At least one of the larger ad networks bloggers use uses SVB, at least in part.
I wonder how many Cryptos have a stake in this bank. I would think this could easily bring down a few cryptos if they can’t cover their withdrawals because of lost assets or lack of liquidity. There’s no telling what is going on in the derivatives side. I think those deals are still allowed to be private. Correct me if I’m wrong on that.
I agree with most of your points. However, we must not forget that we are all biased in Western values. Gold and Silver are Global and very much alive and well in the East. We are currently shipping our inflated paper (and imagination) backed dollars to the East for real goods and their real labor to make such goods. When they no longer want our paper, then what? When we turn on the forever printer, then what? I do know they (The East , Middle East, and South) like gold and silver, even though most in the west don’t. I had a friend tell me that gold’s value is hard to understand. I told him to go to a bank and try to walk out with a gold bar and see what happens. It is still very valuable and always will be. Maybe we just need to rethink our current likes? Our paper games are coming to a quick end.
Thank you for all you do Chris, Evie and Peak Team. My mom now logs on and listens to you as well.
Scary seeing such rapid fire collapse with the banking, but validates all I have been working towards.
Expanding the garden every year. And looking forward to the new website release so I can connect more with other tribe members!
While I am less than sad for the Big Tech players to get beat up I doubt this loss really hits them that hard. Google, Facebook, Twitter, etc. have funds with plenty of other banks. It probably hurts quite a few VCs who I’m also not that sad about. However, it also falls hard on current startups. The ones that are struggling with small teams of people working 60 hr days to try and make something. That group is not only quite non-influential, but as a group they’re also one of the places where innovation is happening. So thinking of that group, the SVB collapse actually does hit some groups I might be inclined to “save”. For a cut that is…
I am an Etsy seller and got one of these letters.
I get my sale funds transferred to my bank daily, and noticed they did not transfer Thurs or Fri. Morning as usually. Got the letter Friday afternoon.
Sounds nice, but will be interesting to see how long it takes to get paid, etc.
Here it is:
Etsy
Hi there,
We wanted to let you know that there is a delay with your deposit that was scheduled for today. This delay was caused by the recent developments regarding Silicon Valley Bank, who Etsy uses to facilitate disbursement to some sellers. We are working with our other payment partners to issue your deposit as soon as possible.
We apologize for any inconvenience or disruption this may have caused. We know that you count on us to help run your business and we understand how important it is for you to receive your funds when you need them. Please know that our teams are working hard to resolve this issue and send you your funds as quickly as possible.
No further action is needed from you at this time. Please feel free to reach out to our Help Center 24/7 with any questions you might have.
I used to be an Etsy seller, but haven’t been active in a few years.
That’s interesting that you noticed problems on Thursday. I really hope it resolves quickly for you.
I’ll admit I had trouble sleeping last night. My main income source is blog ads. I am no longer with the management company that is known to use SVB, at least in part. But I don’t know about my company. They haven’t said anything either way yet. They’re a really good company that I trust to communicate transparently (unlike the other one, which I didn’t like working with and doesn’t have the same reputation). I’m hoping they send out something tomorrow. It’s normal for them to take weekends and holidays off. Even if they don’t due business directly with SVB, what about their payment processor? And the advertisers they work with? No idea, and it’s not a comfortable place to be.
Fingers crossed for you! I hope they do communicate on Monday that you will be unaffected by this!
What a giant house of cards. Amazing how quickly the ripples are felt.
Went out yesterday and stocked up on more goat and chicken feed, deepened the pantry even more, and bought more bioregional seeds… I feel vastly more prepared than when the shock of Covid hit my business, but I’m def. a “normal” person compared to many here on PP, and sometimes feel unqualified to participate on this site because of it. But as Chris prefaced this video about being responsible for our own feelings, I approach life with this same framework and when this conversation stung a bit, really knew in my heart if he knew me and my story, he would not laugh. So I’m good. Scared for sure, but not offended 
Thank you. I’m hoping no news is good news and that they would have said something if they expected a significant impact.
I hear you. I know I’m more prepared than most, but definitely less prepared than many here.
I’m reading your book on Kindle, saves the trees, but no mention of hemp. Hemp is renewable and can be used as a replacement for many things. Ford was building a car body with it and it was to run on hemp oil… destroyed by big business. Time to rethink?
Your thoughts please.
Its Sunday and I am at Dave and Busters drinking a beer while my kids play video games. And I am thinking about the potential range of events tomorrow morning. Are we being managed by clowns or is the likely trends in finance and energy being more directed to make sure the masses are sufficiently collared? For example, the fall of SVB could negatively impacts both future disrupting companies and current risk takers ie the ETSY community. Isn’t that a net positive for people currently in power? I’d like to know where I’m wrong in this dystopian line of reasoning.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/12/investing/svb-customer-bailout/index.html
Some serious doublespeak in this…
Shopify is at least somewhat involved, too. Shopify is the biggest platform for individual e-commerce stores.
I’m not sure of the extent of their SVB exposure. Some Shopify forum members are reporting payment delays, others are saying the “Shopify Capital” options just vanished. Shopify says things are okay (don’t they always?) Their exposure may be limited to using SVB for their Shopify Capital program. I’ll be waiting to see if my Shopify deposit that is “in transit” arrives tomorrow!
Pretty much everything that has been banned is quite useful and empowering.