Coronavirus: Are We Planning To Fail?

News & Current Events Public News & Current Events
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https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-38-days-when-britain-sleepwalked-into-disaster-hq3b9tlgh
This FB group has a post with extended quotes from the paywall article in its comments: https://m.facebook.com/PeoplesAssemblyNottingham/
One key nugget: the UK had gradually replaced its stockpiles of PPE with pre-negotiated just-in-time contracts, mainly with Chinese suppliers. By the time we got around to calling in the contracts, of course, we were talking to air. Makes sense of the constant messaging from the top that “we have PPE” when staff in health services knew we didn’t. Like having an order for toilet paper with Amazon means “I have toilet paper!”
The article makes it crystal clear, by the way, that the UK had all of the information it needed to act, from the start of the year - certainly from the point of Chris’s alert. The dates are explicit in the article. Presumably other governments had the same. I mean, we all knew it, but here it is in black and white.

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Yes! Thank you! Very well written! We must embrace the complexity of our environment and reject the false dichotomies that we are handed by those who seek to exploit us! Regardless of whether you are “right or left,” you are being exploited by the elite financial class. Witness the outrageous inequity of distribution of “stimulus” funds. And many thanks to Chris for his continuing commitment to clarity, honesty, and reason.
One question, thoughts on if we are operating under Chris’s Scenario A or Scenario B? The MSM is all aboard the idea that we are in Scenario B - majority of population asymptomatically infected, as it supports the opening of the economy. However, I am skeptical. Any insights from the membership?

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First the People | Epsilon Theory
This is not a chronicle of errors and mistakes made during COVID-19. This is the story about the inevitable, simultaneous failure of each of the institutions designed to operate in our interest. It is the story of how we respond to the fragility with resilience. Read more
https://www.epsilontheory.com/first-the-people/

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This may be your future and mine.
https://youtu.be/9JedINrKWxA

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But he was the first one to stop incoming flights from China. He wanted to talk about this threat at the G10 but was refused, after which he stopped flights coming in from Europe. Yes he was too late anyway, but fact remains, he was the first country leader to do anything to stop importing the virus.
That's not actually true. Russia, Pakistan, Japan, Singapore and Italy were the first countries to stop flights from China. USA and Australia followed on 1st Feb.
Middle of March, when Italy really was in disaster, a big university student club of 900 members went to Italy for some skying. Now THAT is what a real idiot government allow to happen.
Wow, how did the students even manage to get there? Italy quarantined large areas in the north on 22nd Feb, and on 7th March extended that to an area covering 16 million people, with no movement allowed into or out of the 15 provinces affected, and all public places (including restaurants and ski resorts) closed. On 15th March the lockdown was extended to the whole country. Do you have a reference for that skiing trip in mid-March? I'm intrigued to know who they were, how they got there and why they would venture into such a hot spot!
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Gov Whitless has gone too far, and people are fed up and not going to take it anymore.
We don't get a lot of US media (in Oz), just the major news, so I'm intrigued by this statement. What has happened that they are fed up with? Is there a lockdown to stop the spread of the virus, or more than that? Where I live, we've been in lockdown since 16th March, and people are pretty tolerant of it. A lot of people have lost their jobs, but there's been a very decent package to support everyone on unemployment benefits (the rate has doubled for the next 6 months, mind you, it was very inadequate before), pensions have also almost doubled, and businesses that have lost >50% of their income are subsidised up to $750/week to keep paying their workers and keep them on the books (so they'll have jobs to go back to). All this from our conservative government (admittedly in consultation with the opposition and the state premiers). We're not allowed to leave our homes except for essentials, which includes buying food, going to work, doctor, exercise and a few other things. But then Australians are pretty compliant if they think it's for a good cause. We wear seatbelts, have a system of compulsory voting for all three levels of government, strict guns laws etc. There's a lot of positive community spirit, looking after people at high risk (doing shopping for them etc.). Apparently the Italian government was surprised at how their population complied with their strict lockdown and quarantine laws without complaint. Perhaps they could see how quickly the virus was spreading and the high death rate (due to their ageing population, and many younger people still living with parents or grandparents)? So I guess the situation, along with culture, politics etc. is different everywhere. I'm interested in your opinion of what it's like where you live, and why.
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https://www.dvhn.nl/groningen/Studenten-van-Vindicat-vermaken-zich-met-900-man-op-de-piste-in-Noord-Itali%C3%AB-Er-is-hier-niks-aan-de-hand-25413510.html?harvest_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F
 
it’s in Dutch language
 

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Russia closed the physical border in the East to Cina on Jan 31st. Flights were still accepted. And yeah, ofcourse also neighbouring countries of China closed earlier. However, compared to Europe mr Trump reacted much faster.
On another topic, according to WHO agreement the Dutch government sent 6 million masks to China in Januari, and later found they had no inventory for our own hospitals. Even now in April there is not enough for our elderly homes that are getting decimated. It’s a shame…

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There are some holes in your post. Maybe the most obvious is the lack of supplies due to the US not manufacturing them. All of those supplies were/are being made in China, masks, virtually all ppe and pharmaceuticals and supplements. We don’t make anything here anymore. The entire world operates on a just in time supply chain. As has been mentioned it is awesome till something like a one micron virus comes along.
The ability of the US or should I say the inability to deal with this has many factors. A chief one is the WHO and it along with the entire UN should be defunded.

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Gov Whitless took it too far.
MI is a complicated bi-polar state. It’s a state that is very into hunting, fishing, and outdoor activities, and a state that has a lot of union workers, many of whom have second homes in the woods. The well compensated union people tend to overwhelming vote Democrat. There are also a large qty of small to medium size businesses, along with the big OEM fortune 50 type companies. Irrespective of political leanings, many in the state value their freedoms.
Right now, the official unemployment is 25%, and it’s my personal believe the number is actually much higher. Those that are still employed, are dealing with pay cuts of 20-50%. Higher salary levels are receiving the higher reductions.
Gov has “forbid” traveling to your second home, and yet she states it’s ok to travel to enjoy outdoor activities
Dept of Natural Resources and interpreted her “order” to forbid being on power boats, but it’s legal to be on canoes, kayaks, or sail boats.
You can travel for outdoor activities, but not too far.
Police have been writing $1,000 tickets, so far the courts are throwing them right out of court. Several sheriff depts have publicly that in their counties, her orders will not be enforced.
Non essential businesses are ordered closed, and police have shown up to ensure they are closed. Essential businesses are told they can’t sell things like seeds or plants, or anything not considered immediately for the essential support of life. HOWEVER, a retail business under 50,000 feet can sell everything.
Personal friend of mine owns or co-owns three completely unrelated businesses. He says 2 are on the doorstep of closing. His expenses don’t end when the business is closed. My opinion is the 30-50% of small businesses will close in the next 90-180 days. In my small city, we’ve already had two close up shop. Another friend of mine is going to decide in the next few days if he’s going to close his business. I’m hearing from friends all over the state, that their employers are questioning if they are just going to close their doors. It’s a financial wrecking machine that will not easily or quickly recover.
At my own employer, major OEM, what’s been publicly released should disturb anybody that reads the details.
I’ll leave you with two of our nations constitutional amendments, 1st one (0f 10) is from the bill of rights, which are considered higher than any laws, basically restricting govt rights. These have gotten watered down in modern time by activist courts.

Amendment I

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.

Amendment XIV

Section 1.

All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.
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Not sure if this has already been posted somewhere. More to ponder regarding possible covid related civil rights abuses.
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/04/18/sooner-later-americans-will-have-choose-between-freedom-and-micro-chipped-vaccine/
I am not necessarily subscribing to the herd immunity theories talked about, just concerned about the possibility of mandatory vaccines with microchips and digital tattoos. Not a fan of that at all.
Jan

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In French, https://www.facebook.com/david7fox7/videos/10220994396425545/
When you get older you have nothing to lose. Dr Montagnier stating that the genome COVID-19 has elements of the HIV virus - that can only be a result of human hands. That the report from an Indian doctor’s team was “annulé” (trash can) - who reported the same thing. You would think that the guy that discovered HIV, won a Nobel prize for it, would know waht he’s talking about and not be questioned like he was by a bunch of idiots.
From French - HIV in French is VIH Aids in French is SIDA
He talks about inserting a séquence of HIV.
NB To the small clan of people cheering for a rapid end of the confinement - which must also include a medical protocol to treat infected persons so that they avoid ending up in the hospital system or worse.
The nobel prize winner when asked abou Dr Raoult with about 30min to go on the podcast says clearly that the best results for treatment come from HCQ+ treatment.

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On his live WAAM radio show out of Ann Arbor.

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Great find. Excellent essay.
Thank you

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I have posted this before but seems to be appropriate here.
If anyone is under the delusion that this is a constitutional republic that functions under the rule of law I suggest you watch this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNO18dRip-U&list=PLagVUKF7CUTRiG64CklL1AN0mbmNaETfp&index=1
 
Well there is this from 2006.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wmc60JmaLbE

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This literally reads as a legal brief, as it was written by a lawyer. Deep into the document is multiple stories of the police state in action.
.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ru0bqQLV8k0u0nrcAp1WHlU0DQhx7m6O/edit

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Well a lot of people don’t know about this little gem. It was signed by Obomba (the constitutional scholar)
https://www.aclu.org/issues/national-security/detention/indefinite-detention-endless-worldwide-war-and-2012-national

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https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/claim-that-sars-cov-2-binds-to-hemoglobin-in-red-blood-cells-unsupported-and-implausible-andrew-gaiziunas/
https://chemrxiv.org/articles/Flawed_methods_in_COVID-19_Attacks_the_1-Beta_Chain_of_Hemoglobin_and_Captures_the_Porphyrin_to_Inhibit_Human_Heme_Metabolism_/12120912
Hi Chris,
I’ve been following your coverage of the coronavirus on YouTube for some weeks now and I highly appreciate the work you do and the quality of your analysis of the science and financial systems. I saw these two articles recently and felt a strong need to share them with you. They describe the argument against the hemoglobin theory that you covered recently. Showing the clams from the original article to be somewhat false and at times chemically impossible. I hope you can give these a read and comment on them. I have a background in chemistry and biotech, and I somewhat agree with there findings. Thanks for your time.
Cheers.

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Hi Chris, You invited comments in the Day 85, “Planning to Fail?” video on Case Fatality Rates (CFR = deaths/ cases). I hope you find this highly unusual response rewarding.
You suggested a 7 day lag between the time cases are “confirmed” and when the associated deaths for those cases occur. I note you used Worldometer data for your analysis. You suggest this might indicate about a current 7.4% CFR for the USA. No. Relying on the WHO China joint mission report:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
, on average, symptoms appear after about 5 (4 - 7) days incubation, so adopting day 7 a for when a case is confirmed would be about right. Day 21 (source Prof Neil Ferguson, Imperial College) is the accepted average lag from when the initial infection occurs until death.
On this basis, the total cases extracted from Worldometer on any day submittedly correspond with the deaths 14 days later (not 7 days later) to calculate a CFR. Let’s call this 14 days lag Theory 1. For various reasons the Worldometer data should be seen as very rubbery numbers, and the case numbers in particular. Fatality numbers are probably reasonably credible, but case numbers around the world might under report, lack definitional certainty, double count or not count cases, and might include asymptomatic positives (Germany is an example of the latter).
Asymptomatic cases don’t cause deaths, and without backing those numbers out of the total cases first, using them to calculate a CFR is meaningless. You’d need to verify and perhaps adjust all the States’ data individually to arrive at an aggregate number of symptomatic cases for a credible CFR calculation for the whole USA. That would be a big job, but here’s another way that’s both much simpler, and much more accurate. Relying on a British Medical Journal article: https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375 it is suggested that “mature” Covid 19 epidemics present a fixed ratio between symptomatic and asymptomatic Covid 19 cases of 22% : 78%. Let’s adopt that ratio too, as Theory 2. Sure, it’s from a very small Chinese Study, but proves its accuracy and scalability globally in this analysis, just you wait and see! If Theory 1 and Theory 2 are both correct, then the total reported deaths 14 days later will equal 22% of reported cases, if and only if those case numbers represent symptomatic cases only. This test validates the 22% : 78% ratio for the case numbers reported at 14 days (+/- 3 days) for:
World - 17 days USA - 17 days Italy - 15 days Spain - 14 days Sweden - 13 days Belgium - 10 days
The implication here is that the good fit with the total case numbers for these regions above indicates those case numbers comprise mostly, if not all symptomatic positives.
The raw French cases and deaths extracted from Worldometer in my analysis were officially adjusted upwards wholesale on April 2 and 3 by 17,827 cases and a total of 1516 deaths. Adding these numbers to the Worldometer data brings France in at:
France - 11 days As I suggested above, Germany (and Austria it appears) total case numbers include asymptomatic positives and if you factor them down to exclude those cases, the test gives:
Germany - 14 days Austria - 15 days The test doesn’t illuminate Switzerland, Norway and Denmark (yet), though, and I could only make sense of their numbers with more information. I do however have the information to substitute the Worldometer case numbers for the UK with the audited adjusted total case numbers, which do then test at:
UK - 11 days Let’s just say that although professional epidemiologists and modellers might scoff at this “naive” curve fitting approach, Theory 1 and 2 provide a dead simple and accurate correlation with the story the world data tells, do they not?
A further implication from assuming Theory 1 and 2 is that it now becomes a piece of cake to estimate the hidden epidemic behind the reported cases, in the circumstance where reported deaths 14 days later correlate with 22% of reported cases. The hidden epidemic (Unreported symptomatic and asymptomatic cases plus symptomatic reported cases who don’t die) is equal to 78/22 x reported cases. KISS.
Your gracious Support people at Peak Prosperity tell me they’ve forwarded a “reality check” by this naive method (#129472) to you and Adam on the Imperial College Study #13 you reported. That Study “estimated ‘true’”(now there’s a weasel word) “total” (symptomatic plus asymptomatic) “cases” for Europe and the UK.
Firstly, the conclusions of the Study are self evidently impossible. The Study claims that in Norway there are supposedly about 4 hidden cases for every reported case, whereas the same epidemic has supposedly generated about 100 hidden cases for every reported case in Spain and the UK? WTF? That translates to about 6.7M alleged phantom Covid 19 survivors in Spain, over and above the 0.26M prediction of the naive model.
As you say Chris, bad information causes bad decisions, which in this case puts literally millions of lives at stake if global leaders get it wrong on account of this alleged Imperial College “fake news”.
And this Study #13 is allegedly only one instance where the Imperial College and other mathematical muddlers (please pardon Freudian slip) are submittedly causing great harm to the increasingly limited chances the world has to very delicately dance our way out of this Covid 19 dilemma.
And, of course, there being no solutions for a dilemma, if we can’t even measure the damn pandemic, then we can’t even manage it intelligently either at present, can we?
We can do better.
A KISS to all,
Andy