ao-
Yeah, I’m guilty of overfocus on the virus too.
Part of my issue/excuse is that I think this event could be a forcing function that might actually bring about a reality check that endless printing has been able to paper over now for a decade. Its like “nature batting last.”
I also see it as an astonishingly asymmetric trading opportunity, with a “reward” out there for anyone who can look ahead to the course of economic events 3-6 months down the road. Real black swans don’t happen often, and especially black swans that flap around for weeks, croaking out loud, black swan noises, while the markets seemingly just sits there, pretending that nothing is going on, leaving you plenty of time to take a position - enough time to wonder, “is this just my imagination?”
These things don’t happen often - a few times in a lifetime. 2001. 2008. And now. Its the super bowl. The world series. I’ve created my tools. Here it comes…
My puzzle: how to participate in this experience while retaining my equanimity. Without getting sucked into the emotional vortex of fear that - as we know - will act to pound my immune system and bring about the very events that are the cause for concern.
As for the relative importance of this: I don’t see any other single near term force that comes close to this in terms of market impact.
So I want to participate, and maintain my equanimity at the same time. That’s the real test.
AO,
I agree. I’ve read the prospectus too. Very shady. What’s the point of owning gold with counterparty risk? I saw a chart the other day that showed an increase in GLD inflows over the last six months as the price of gold has risen. When people see the price of gold rising, they call their financial person and tell them they want into gold, and of course they buy GLD. If things go really bad, GLD investors may be left holding an empty bag. Imagine being right about the trade, but wrong about the vehicle. Ouch.
Something I hadn’t considered.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/disruption-enormous-coronavirus-epidemic-snarls-science-worldwide
Also a bit about pharmaceutical supply chains too.
Iran reports 2 more deaths, 13 new cases of new coronavirus
https://apnews.com/ebdbf56585701c3e8a298c51368b810d =========================Coronavirus updates: South Korea reports big jump in cases, virus spreading in Chinese prisons
South Korea declares 'special management zone' following spread from church
The mayor of South Korean city of Daegu said it was facing an “unprecedented crisis” after a series coronavirus infections linked to a single church service, as worries mounted in the country.
The number of cases of coronavirus in South Korea has doubled in 24 hours, reaching 204
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-update-south-korea-reports-big-jump-cases-virus-spreading-n1140201 ============================ 23 more infected with coronavirus in Japan, including 2 gov't workers https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200221/p2a/00m/0na/004000c =============================Japan Limits Large Gatherings to Thwart Coronavirus
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-hit-japan-limits-large-gatherings-11582282621 ==========================More than 500 new coronavirus cases are detected in PRISONS across China, fuelling fears about the virus's ability to spread - as Iran confirms two more deaths and Israel and Lebanon announce their first cases
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8028275/More-500-new-coronavirus-cases-detected-PRISONS-China.html ============================Three Italians test positive for the coronavirus in northern Italy
The first patient had dinner in early February with a friend who had just come back from China, according to Lombardy welfare councillor Giulio Gallera.
Around 100 people are now reportedly being tested for the virus in the city of Codogno, where the three live.
Italian media said 60 people had been placed under quarantine as a precaution.
https://www.thelocal.it/20200221/three-italians-test-positive-for-coronavirus-in-lombardy“That’s on top of last week’s confirmed case in Africa. So now the virus is on every continent save Antarctica.”
I don’t see any cases in South America.
Death was stalking Jeffrey Epstien months before his end. Had he not died already Corona would have gotten him eventually.
You can’t run and hide. Especially in prison. But even solitary is not far enough away when it comes to airborne viruses.
I expect this illness to take a steep toll on those who are incarcerated. At the best of times prisoners do not get much medical care. Some jails in poor countries will become graveyards. Note to others…This is a very bad time to piss off the judge at your child support hearings.
So stay outa jail!
Yes, South America is one of the seven continents
dtrammel -
If this is indeed the onset of the Fourth Turning societal crisis, that makes Millenials the Hero archetype. It’s up to the Millenials to “save” us. Probably with vehement tweeting and social media angsty warfare.
As a Boomer and a Prophet archetype, I am of the opinion that we are screwed.
Get off my lawn. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7X2_V60YK8
How did U.S. go from 29 to 16?
Why has the US not updated their travel restriction put in place earlier in February?
Being pro-active I would think about adding Singapore, South Korea, and even Iran (yes anyone can hop a a plane there now, but not sure who is).
As I understand the existing restrictions now are
- Set of health checks and mandatory quarantine for those coming back from Hubei province. Foreign nationals may be denied entry completely.
- For those coming back anywhere from China , a health check and self imposed quarantine at home.
These existing restrictions are probably not effective either because of asymptomatic nature, short quarantine, and dependent upon folks to self quarantine. I don’t know all the factors But why not consider making these stricter by increasing quarantine length and/or make it more of a true ban?
While the available flights are reduced I checked and can book a flight this weekend from LA to Beijing on United and China southern air and come back to US and just get temp taken and go home.
New one in Humbolt County, CA that is not being picked up by any major news sources. Definitely something fishy going on in the US. Especially with the CDC kits not working so no local testing can be done.
https://krcrtv.com/north-coast-news/eureka-local-news/first-case-of-novel-coronavirus-confirmed-in-humboldt-county
James -
I can’t recall the source article, but I read that the spike to 29 came from considering individuals who may have tested negative on the current nucleic acid diagnostic test, but show all of the coronavirus symptoms to be classified as confirmed cases.
After a trip to the replay booth, the call on the field was overturned and 14 cases were later determined to not be COVID-19.
Great, CDC and State Dept. arguing…not sure which one is more inept at virus response but when you have both not listening to each other well…
None of the infected passengers were showing symptoms of the virus, triggering a debate between the State Department and the CDC. The State Department and a Trump administration health official wanted to send the passengers home on the chartered flight out of Japan anyway, the Post reported. CDC officials, however, warned against evacuating the infected, due to concerns over re-exposing healthy passengers to the virus. When State Department and administration officials decided to go through with the evacuation, the CDC’s principal deputy director, Anne Schuchat, requested not to be included in the news release announcing the decision.
While not top of mind now, here is interesting commentary about Coronavirus in the workplace, especially those in healthcare:
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/coronavirus-at-the-workplace-19261/
In support of the idea that nothing gets detected until there’s unusually severe cases of viral pneumonia is the situation with the six new patients in Italy. One man presented in serious condition with pneumonia, and was found to have been to a dinner with someone who had traveled to China. The traveler to China himself was not ill, and tested negative for the virus!
I read these reports to get an idea for what is the most likely unusual event that I might experience. How about being accused of spreading a virus no one can prove you have! The man who traveled from China is now in isolation in the hospital, unable to work, because he is the most likely link. But who knows where they all got the infection honestly. Confusing!
A few days ago I came into contact with someone whose family member travels to Asia frequently. The family member was sick last week, but I’m going to guess they did not ask for a coronavirus test. Who would do this to themselves voluntarily unless they were so short of breath they had to go to the hospital?
and to those who feel reassured thinking that Asians are more severely affected, note that all six Italians who tested positive for the virus are in severe condition.
With a supposed demographic breakdown of mortality by age of:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE: Age Fatality Rate 80+ 14.8% 70-79 years old 8.0% 60-69 years old 3.6% 50-59 years old 1.3% 40-49 years old 0.4% 30-39 years old 0.2% 20-29 years old 0.2% 10-19 years old 0.2% 0-9 years old no fatalitiesI am a little surprised by the reported deaths of doctors in China. To be sure, it has been indicated that potentially thousands of health care personnel have been infected (1700 with 7 deaths according to AP) but they are by definition the most likely to be rapidly diagnosed and get the best care. That said, the deaths reported in western media include: Dr. Li Wenliang - age 33. Sick Jan 10, hospitalized Jan 13, diagnosed Jan 30, dead Feb 7. (well-known whistleblower) Dr. Liu Zhiming - age 51 (Hospital director) - "he became infected and died despite “all-out” attempts to save him." Unnamed doctor (today) - Age 29. Hospitalized Jan 25, worsened Jan 30, died Feb 21. I haven't seen reports for the others who died (maybe nurses don't get high enough billing?). I am also not sure what the likely percentage of doctors is among the 1700 health care professionals who are afflicted with COVID-19. The young ages of the known doctors who have died from the virus is unusual but perhaps not statistically impossible given the reported mortality rates. What doesn't make sense is the apparent lack of older doctors dying from this virus. Are there so few older Chinese doctors? Are the fatality rate age demographics accurate? We probably won't know until the unfortunate mortality statistics reach large enough numbers in countries outside of China. Even when the infection levels rise though, it looks like the time between hospitalization and death can be ~4 weeks so we will always be behind the curve on understanding the demographic outcomes.
11 of the 12 new cases is the US last night were from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. Of the reported 14 infected Americans, 13 ended up in Nebraska (not sure where number 14 went). Now eleven of the 13 have been verified to have tested positively for the virus (confirmed by the CDC).
I’m really not gaining a lot of confidence in the ongoing US response to this virus outbreak… I guess being the vaunted World’s Sole Superpower isn’t all it been cracked up to be.
Mark I have to agree with you and admit that the same thought crossed my mind.
When you have young doctors making an exit to the celestial realm it is time to reassess things. These folks are well versed in what to look for, and can count on getting the best care that their relative nations have to offer. These are not cases of the old or the poor being tossed aside by an uncaring and ineffective system.
From what I can see this virus is bad. And if it is as bad as it seems from what reading I’ve done? I’m not sure there is going to be a way to contain it or guard against getting it if you have a job that entails being around others. Unless you can check out of the current economy you have to get out and mix with others.
Maybe the best we can hope for is that it is contained to a degree that gets us into spring. Then maybe it will subside in the northern hemisphere until we can perhaps get a vaccine ready for next winter.
Will
Chris,
As someone with identified coronavirus in my area, I appreciate your work to keep COVID19 information analyzed and updated for us. You have also helped clarify the interactions with our broken economy.
That said, I had two thoughts regarding other topics.
First everything is connected, so if we focus only on virus statistics and economic manipulations, we might miss a subtle 2nd order effect or another “black swan” that could come back to bit us.
Second, whenever MSM and the officials start orchestrating a circus, I wonder what we are supposed to NOT SEE. E.g. Impeachment circus distracted from events in China. - just mentioning.
So Chris, you and Adam are doing a bang up job keeping up with coronavirus and it’s potential social and economic impacts so the rest of us don’t have to do that in depth analysis. What you’re making available publically is providing a critical service. Thank you.
I’d like to remind the members that we shouldn’t be posting speculative information on the public posts, but to keep unverified thoughts behind the paywall. I say that because I’ve caught myself in the wrong location a couple of times.
As you point out, we’re all self-directed adults here. We can be each other’s eyes and ears to monitor other issues that MSM is trying to hide so the entire group can benefit from wide monitoring for other factors that may otherwise creep up on us as we focus on the biggest event.
We’ve talked about drug shortages and food safety, but I’m monitoring the flooding in agricultural areas. It’s possible the breadbelt will have another wet and less productive summer. If travel restrictions limit food imports from heavily infected areas, there could also be food shortages and massive increases in food prices, perhaps at the same time the economy starts to go south as the supply chain crumbles.
So keep up the good work Chris and Adam while some of the rest of us use the time you’ve given us to scan for other potential risks that often come as an add-on to possible collapse.
Here’s a list of potential additional neon (ok he likes “white”) swans to monitor from Roubini. Here’s Roubini’s covid comment.
“The Covid-19 outbreak has reinforced the position of those in the US arguing for containment [of China] and lent further momentum to the broader trend of Sino-American “decoupling”. More immediately, the epidemic is likely to be more severe than currently expected and the disruption to the Chinese economy will have spillover effects on global supply chains – including pharma inputs, of which China is a critical supplier – and business confidence, all of which will likely be more severe than financial markets’ current complacency suggests.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/19/the-white-swan-harbingers-of-global-economic-crisis-are-already-here?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR2758x89Cgh_cMmKjqNlDII3Xps6roM48qERDin9PK2DvOlGowb98UKCK0
Ms. Tverberg, over at her blog “Our Finite World” has posted a great overview:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/02/18/easily-overlooked-issues-regarding-covid-19/