Coronavirus Pandemic: The Next Two Weeks Are Critical

While China remains largely in lockdown, covid-19 cases in the rest of the world are at a key juncture.

To-date, confirmed cases have been lower than feared. Though increasingly, we’re suspecting that’s due to inadequate testing & reporting.

And the cases we *do* know of (now at ~1,000) appear to be growing at an exponential rate. So the next two weeks will be critical in telling the tale. We'll soon know whether the spread is indeed slower than initially feared, or we'll start to see huge increases in the number of infected ex-China.

Meanwhile, the authorities around the world, including the WHO and CDC, continue to downplay the threat. But at the same time, governments are busy mobilizing massive containment efforts. Their words do not match their actions. Is there more we're not being told?

As we’ve said, time will soon tell. Keep up your efforts to remain informed, as good information is scarce right now.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at

The massive amount of cases on the cruise ship show plainly that this coronavirus can spread like wildfire. I’m very curious as to how the cases all over the world are so muted, yet the Diamond Princess was a Petri dish full of agar. I suspect the virus is replicating at the rate the cruise ship experienced in multiple locals presently. But until we know…pure speculation. Is there silence from authorities or is Covid-19 an Asian problem? So curious…

Since the info thread seems to move to whatever article is current, i’ll repost what others have posted here at the top:
That’d be the reason for the diamond princess being so infectious. It probably gives us the best estimation of an R0 yet - what the disease does in total amateur hour (so effectively no protection).
EDIT: And JUST to make matters worse; some fresh info:
First 500 people are set to be released in 15 minutes from this post!

I have to believe infants are spared by Co-vid because the bad symptoms are from the exuberant immune system response & not from the virus itself. Infants do not have much in the way of active immunity, and have very weak immune systems… Breast feeding provides passive immunity by the transferring of antibodies from the mother to the baby. This is why breast feeding is recommended; to help fight off infections that the baby’s immature immune system has yet to encounter. Passive immunity also take place when patients get plasma (antibodies) from others who have recovered from Co-vid. The severe & deadly part of this illness is the cytokine storm that attacks the lungs as well as possibly the heart. That storm comes from the over exuberant immune system response. That’s probably going to be the target rich area for medicines & treatments for Co-vid.

Japan - Releasing 500 folks into city and then back to their countries… I hope they are being put into isolation rooms the virus will likely be in some of them just undetected!!!
South Korea - 15 new cases from 31 taking it to 46! thats an explosive jump… well detected. I hope they have good contact tracing and know where these folks got it from, or we’re in the potential abyss again!

Site flipping me to other posts.
I just tried to like a post and got flipped into my microsoft email site.

Like I quoted of the CDC last week. It is one thing to say we dont know but to make statements that its spread by droplets in close contact with in 6 ft and there is no evidence and such of spreading on objects. This is absurd deficient and reckless and clearly just lies and misinformation. The italian site looks like a clone of the CDC. and the WHO is being just as blatantly as dumb. It seems North Korea , has its shit together… why not the US?

I am thinking the serious illness part of this could from a presensitization to this from a previous infection. This would make it less likely that those very young would have a significant response.

China was first…Japan and Singapore a month later have low/moderate case counts (Assuming higher interaction rates / travel with China.)
I would guess here in US we will be at least a month after Japan/Singapore to reach over 50 cases. Not to mention per video topic that identification will be delayed due to poor testing procedure. I think folks in US might get lulled by a long calm thinking we’re good. If we get it here I’m thinking the big news starts end of March or later.

I was hoping for a more in depth discussion about the big study coming out of China, “Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)” (it’s cached here if the official source takes too long to load). The video mentions a NYT article that talks about the study, but there’s a lot more to it. You can use estimates of the case fatality rates for different age groups, and there’s a lot to discuss regarding biases in the study.

Not sure how this thing will be contained unless all countries adopt appropriate measures to reduce the r0 to under 1. Singapore style measures seem pretty decent with 2 degrees of separation tracing. Financial measures to pay and incentivize folks with cold/flu symptoms to get tested at clinics to proactively seek diagnosis also appropriate for the asymptomatic nature of this disease… without detection, the numbers reported are kind of not too meaningful to be honest.

Like Chris, I believe we have maybe 2-3 weeks before this gets ugly.
Its a given that most of us are going to have to care for ourselves at home when this gets serious. There may come a time though, no matter how prepared we are, that someone with us (or ourselves) become so sick that seeking professional medical care is called for.
When that happens, you are almost certainly going to end up at a hospital that is at the breaking point, with few resources and personnel. Maybe the government sets us some online resources to field calls before you go to the hospital, but I doubt it.
I’m thinking the more information you can provide that first nurse or doctor who sees you, the more likely they can make a good diagnosis in the shortest amount of time and keep you from siting there waiting.
I assume a form with basic patient info would be helpful. Things like age, sex, home address and SS# and basic descriptions (so they can identify you). Medical history of past illnesses or injuries, any medication they are on, either prescription or over the counter, Insurance contact info if they have it. Anything else?
So what illness specific information would be important to have documented?
I have (or will have soon) a thermometer, oximeter, and blood pressure cuff.
I figure that I should establish a base line over a couple of days, then at the first sign I should be recording temperature, blood oxygen level and blood pressure. How often would I want to take these?
Any other symptoms I should note? Fatigue, shortness of breath, nausea, chills or hot flashes first noticed?
I’m pretty good with making forms (have a good set of graphics programs on my pc). If I can get some guidance I can make one people here can download and print to fill in as they home treat and then take with them to a hospital.

I also think having a medical care directive and a health care power of attorney made up and signed for each person would be useful.
If you end up at a hospital, having one would give you a little more legal right to be there while treatment is going on, and might prevent the hospital from shipping the ill person off to a quarantine camp if they appear too sick to make a decision for themselves. Having someone fit, who can say “I can treat them at home!” might get them to release the person to you just to get you out of their hair.

Makes you wonder, Are these people even being tested?

I thought I would share something POSITIVE that has come out of the last 3 1/2 weeks. (has it really only been 3 1/2 weeks? wow!)
We have been drinking Chris’ Elderberry syrup since 1/28, and Cindy told me a few days ago that her Asthma symptoms and med requirements have been down for the last 2 weeks! That good news, along with our huge order of meds from India have us feeling better about the meds aspect. And, her breathing is better! :slight_smile:
We’ve ordered another few lbs of the Elderberries Chris liked to, and will be picking up an Elderberry bush from the tree farm here shortly.
Best to all,
Eric and Cindy

The Abel’s have posted videos regularly from their quarantine suite on the Diamond Princess and now have thousands of followers worldwide. Today they received test results that confirmed that both David and Sally are infected with Covid-19. Here’s an update provided by their son, Steve; as well as a video posted by the Abels yesterday.
The Abels are both elderly, but David has some health issues that make him at high risk of serious outcomes from the virus and/or his comorbidities. There are no definitive evacuation plans of UK citizens (whether well or infected) from the ship.
The Abels are an endearing couple. They worried that they might be separated for the first time in their 50 years of marriage. At least it looks like they’ll be together, location yet TBD. :'-| Very sad. I hope they recover their health and sense of normalcy back in the UK soon.
My Quarantined Parents Now Have Coronavirus
‘Absolute balls’: David and Sally Abel deny feeling unwell over coronavirus (recorded yesterday before the received they positive diagnosis)

I have seen were there is now bird flu virus in china, any chance that bird flu virus and corona virus become a new virus? My wife says that my mind can be strange at times.

Your wife is correct, your mind is strange.

I previously posted a comment stating that I believed that in Singapore we are past the peak of infections. That is being borne out by the facts at the present time with a lower number being infected each day than the number being released from hospital following multiple negative tests to ensure that they are no longer carriers of the virus. I have to say that Singapore has done a fantastic job in controlling the virus and in tracing any close contacts of those infected so it is improbable that there are more than a very few cases that have not been detected in the country.
“At the same time, five coronavirus patients have been discharged, including the one-year-old boy evacuated from Wuhan that was announced on Monday. To date, 29 people have been discharged.
The baby was evacuated on Feb 9. He had been warded in an isolation room since Feb 13 and had only mild symptoms. He was confirmed on Feb 16, but cleared of infection on Feb 18.
He is now well, but has been put back on quarantine with his parents.”

According to the news report you linked, no testing unless the quarantined become symptomatic for Covid-2019.
“County officials say doctors are able to video conference with patients around the clock while monitoring their conditions. “You’re watching to see if people develop symptoms of the disease, and at that point, you would then test them if they did,” Amler said.”
The report didn’t state the number of days these 26 individuals would be quarantined.