Coronavirus Pandemic: The Next Two Weeks Are Critical

They grow wild in much of the US. They don’t ripen until late summer in most of those places but are very prolific growers. They are very easy to identify. They are darker purple in the eastern US and in the west, more of a med. blue color.
A quick web check will reveal whether you have them or not.

Thanks for going into more detail on that, Chris! I really appreciate it!

Arthur Schopenhauer’s explanation of how truth is accepted has been playing out in my family this last few weeks. From “you are(roll of eyes) SO obsessed with this virus thing”, to “Dad, just be quiet-that is just depressing-I don’t want to hear another word”, to “so, I’m taking some extra Vitamin D now, what do you hear new out there?”
1.Ridiculed, 2. Violently opposed, …2.9…3. Accepted as truth.
I would not suggest for a minute that my family is much past 2.0 as a whole, but their curiosity towards me and acceptance of me as a crazy old man will make it easier for them to reach 3.o. The cognitive dissonance they are experiencing in the meantime is well worth it.
Chris’s comments on this subject are a hard push for us not to sit on our derrières and fumigate on this subject ad infinitum, but to jump up and get ready. Many of this tribe have already made their preparations, some have not. Buck your own internal conflicts and make some concrete moves to 3.o in actions, not just words.
The armed high jacking of a toilet paper laden truck in Hong Kong is a vivid reminder of where things can go in a jiffy.
As an example, I was surprised at how easy it was for our physician to prescribe some extra medication for us. Since it was from the doctor’s office the insurance worked. That was the Rubicon for my spouse.
Best of preps to you all.
Thank you Chris and Adam.
Aggrivated as usual

For what its worth, perhaps of special interest to the many PP members that are health workers, and others:
Something must have got lost in the translation as these guidelines did not prevent those very unfortunate 1,700 Chinese health workers from being infected with Covid-2019.

Washington State is having 712 potential carriers on self monitoring. I live rural and order quite a bit from Amazon. That will stop this week and all packages loaded into back of pickup, with gloved hands. Everything Lysol sprayed before bringing into house.

I was hoping for a more in depth discussion about the big study coming out of China, “Vital Surveillances: The Epidemiological Characteristics of an Outbreak of 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19)” (it’s cached here if the official source takes too long to load).
Edit: Most of this post is wrong. In a new post below I explain why.   I read the Chinese study I mentioned above and while useful, there's something that seems very troubling. (I recommend you open the PDF and follow my argument looking at the figures I mention.) In Figure 1, when they break down by date of onset (defined for confirmed cases as date on which patients selfreported the start of either fever or cough), it's readily apparent that the disease, for those who eventually end up dying from it, usually takes close to a month from symptom onset to death. The problem is, most of the sample had not reached the month before the study's data cut-off date (Feb 11th). It's reasonable to expect that many who had a date of onset on Jan 11th or later will soon die from the virus or died after the cut-off date for the study's data, since the reported case fatality rate (CFR) drops precipitously as the time shortens from date of symptom onset to study cut-off. The 2.3% overall CFR is mainly (86%) composed of cases with symptom onset on Jan 21st or later, and that group as a whole has an average CFR of 1.55% [(494+102)/(26468+12030)]. If one ignores the big bias created by the fact that many mild or asymptomatic cases probably go undiagnosed, the true CFR for cases that do get confirmed is probably closer to 15.46% [(15+102)/(104+653)], which is the average for cases with onset of symptoms by Jan 10th. Curiously, there's no mention of this issue in the article! One potential explanation could have to do with the fact that the outbreak was confined to Hubei province for the first ~23 days, and Hubei's health care system collapsed, so maybe the reported CFR drops as onsets become more recent because that's when more cases happen outside of Hubei (where hospitals are not overrun to the same degree). However, this theory is not supported by the evidence. See figure 3-B (epidemiological curve for confirmed cases in all of China), and figure 4-A (epidemiological curve for confirmed cases outside Hubei). By simply eyeballing the figures it's clear that this theory cannot contribute to any substantial degree to the phenomenon described above. In trying to estimate the expected CFR to my age group, 30-39, I take the reported CFR (18/7600, ~0.2%), multiply by average CFR of those who had onset by Jan 10th (15.46%), and divide by CFR reported for all confirmed cases (1023/44672, ~2.3%), arriving at an estimated 1.6%, up from the reported 0.2% for my age group. That figure also needs to be adjusted by the fact that I'm male, which leaves me at 2.0% CFR. That's an approximate CFR in China for a male my age group, conditional on being confirmed infected, but since many mild and asymptomatic cases probably go untested, the real CFR is probably substantially lower. By how much, that's anyone's guess. Another big wildcard is how much of this CFR is due to the fact that the health care system collapsed in Hubei. (I'm not adjusting by the fact that I have no health conditions because there's no way to tell apart the influence of age on health conditions, and I presume that most of the effect of health conditions is already baked into the age data.)   Another interesting data point. It seems that of those cases that ended up being confirmed, most cases probably tended to be confirmed within 12 days after symptom onset: "Although for confirmed cases onset of illness peaked around January 23–27, diagnosis of infection by nucleic acid testing of throat swabs did not peak until February 4."

Re: having someone who can nurse you at home. I don’t think they would release you at home if your O2 sat was under 93%, which is the Chinese cutoff for initiating testing. I need to study that chart more carefully but once you are in the hospital (presumably because you are too sick to stay home), and test positive, I don’t see how they would send you home to potentially infect someone else. And I think we’ve all agreed that we shouldn’t cram urgent care and ERs with people who are just unwell but not too sick to stay home.
That said, I also don’t think the details of whether you have cough, or fever, or nausea, or headache are the most important. From what I know of the virus so far, as a doctor I would want to know if there is a known exposure and when that was, when the first symptoms started, and whether there is presently shortness of breath. Also if there is a history of underlying health problems and as you mentioned, the medication list. Rarely are supplements used in hospitals in my experience.
Name, DOB, SSN, and who to call (ideally one person to call with updates), advanced directives as to resuscitation and what measures are acceptable, medical power of attorney (there are forms that can be filled out online).
Also, religion, and allergies, especially to medication, but also to food.
Don’t leave any valuables with the patient; in my experience, hospitals can’t keep track of these in the best of times.
I haven’t been working in hospitals since 2008, so others please chime in.

You are likely correct in that assessment, dryam2000. That might partly explain the videos of middle aged people in China dropping like birds in the street or inexplicably kneeling over and dying.
Their immune systems are backfiring. Total failure. It is an abrupt sudden death without any reference point familiar to us.
Who ever heard of that kind of an immune system response other than cases of bee stings where patients instantly develop anaphylactic shock and suffocate?
But kids don’t get this because they do not yet have an immune response. So it’s like a disease that does not exist for them.
So maybe don’t bother with the vitamins or vaccinations? Wow! Anything that makes you stronger will lead to your death now?
What evil madman dreamed up this disease!!

As previously discussed/reported, in a paper by the Chinese CCDC (released on February 17) the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology found that the risk of death increases the older you are, as follows:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
Age Fatality Rate
80+ 14.8%
70-79 years old 8.0%
60-69 years old 3.6%
50-59 years old 1.3%
40-49 years old 0.4%
30-39 years old 0.2%
20-29 years old 0.2%
10-19 years old 0.2%
0-9 years old no fatalities
Does anyone have this “age” breakdown between men and women? Also between men who smoke and those who do not smoke? Thanks!

I’m still mulling over this. Kids may have weaker immune systems (infants do, not so sure about older kids) but the immune system doesn’t get stronger and stronger as we age. What does get more common is cardiovascular disease, which appears to play a role in causing death for COVID-19. Male gender also is correlated with cardiovascular disease, but mainly before 55 or 60, as with menopause, women start to catch up. Blood lead levels are also correlated with cardiovascular disease, which could be a risk factor for people living in polluted places. It’s interesting that prior lung disease is not as strong a factor as cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Anyways, air pollution worsens cardiovascular (and pulmonary) issues. Diabetes, also a predictor of cardiovascular disease, comes with significant inflammation, which could make an aberrant immune response more likely.
I understand that the study analysis has already taken a multiplicity of risk factors into account, but many 40 and 50 year olds walking around don’t know what degree of cardiovascular disease they may have. It’s certainly more than a child’s.
One thing about the “exuberant” immune response is that it’s not necessarily a sign of a great immune system. The system is designed to start up in an exponential fashion (cells calling other cells with cytokines), but also to turn itself off, otherwise any infection would lead to death. So in my mind, ARDS is related to an aberrant immune response -something that went wrong, not the immune system doing its normal job.
Which is why I think that measures that help “right-size” the immune system are needed. We don’t have medications for that, but lifestyle approaches have that effect, and perhaps some supplements may help.

It’s killing people over 80 years old much more than other ages, so it’s definitely not killing the healthiest. Whether vitamins or vaccinations make you healthier I won’t tackle here. Vaccinations give you antibodies that can protect you against a disease. Will they do anything against another disease? There may be studies on that.

I am hearing reports from health care professionals, that cases have been confirmed in uk hospitals over the weekend and are being treated as confirmed coronavirus. The sources are trust worthy close family friends, so i have good reason to trust them. They are also directly treating these people in full PPE gear.

I do not believe the Chinese CCDC numbers for one second based on what we have learned over the past few weeks.
Since when did we start accepting that 2.4% was an honest CFR mortality figure? If that is true then why are 700 million people still under quarantine and lockdown?
If this illness really only kills old, sick people then why are entire cities full of healthy able-bodied people shut down?
Why are police in China forcefully rounding up so many people who appear to be young or at most early-middle aged?
Why did Wuhan buy 40 portable incinerators with a theoretical capacity to burn 3000 bodies per day (I did not read that statistic anywhere btw. It is just based on rough math given the incinerators supposedly can burn 5000 tonnes of material daily).
It is lies, lies and more damned lies from authorities everywhere. Not just in China but here at home too.
I figure insurance companies are behind it. LOL! Once this thing was declared a pandemic your life insurance became worthless. Same as a war or deaths caused by civil unrest.
I was reading Bill Blaine yesterday and he remarked that a huge baby boom is coming to China as a result of this quarantine. Probably right.
We can now probably redraw the population pyramid of China with our newfound data. Most of those pesky seniors will be out of the way. And large numbers of middle aged men will be buried while millions of fresh born babies will be added at the bottom of the pyramid.
Its a demographic miracle!

Myrto, you are accepting the Chinese data at face value that “its killing people over 80 years much more than other people”.
I do not believe the numbers. They are BSing us the same way they BS their own people in China.
What about those Doctors who died? They were not elderly. And recall the videos of medical staff collapsing to the floor suddenly. They did not appear elderly either.
They almost had me there for a minute.
But then I snapped out of the trance. Those mortality figures are “goal-seeked” as Zerohedge likes to say. They are part truth and part propaganda.
This is how you build a narrative so the readers cannot easily discern between facts and fiction when you combine them together.
Let’s keep our heads screwed on. The Chinese propaganda machine is so effective lately it has our own governments entranced.
Its also why that idiot from Ethiopia in charge of the World Health Organization actually convinced his own countries airline to keep flying non-stop direct daily flights from China directly into the heart of Addis Ababa.
That is called an agenda if you don’t know it.

Nairobi, don’t go scaring people about their life insurance. There are very few exclusions in policies now days. It would be wise for a concerned policy holder to check with their vendor. Often, risky situations can be handled with an increase of the premium.
My thought had been a possible bankruptcy of the vendor if too many claims are made.

It’s great that China has had some success but not everybody can take choloroquine phosphate. I for one, can’t, and For many other elderly people like me it is contraindicated:
heart failure and arrhythmia
hearing and vision impairments
leukopenia-low white count. Which is concerning because one of the presenting features of Covid19 is leukopenia.
I’m glad that the young are spared but it looks like us Boomers are in for some serious trouble

Yes, elderberries can be found growing wild in a lot of places. However, proceed with caution. There are many varieties of elder plants so unless you are skilled at knowing which elder you have found, stick to elderberries purchased from reliable sources. Two reasons: not all elder plants are medicinal and the ornamentals will do no good as medicine. Second, some are poisonous! I was taught to always look for black elder (Sambucus nigra). Red is dead is what I was taught.
This is also important if you are planting elder bushes. Make sure you are getting a medicinal variety. Crimson Sage Nursery in Orleans, CA is a great source of all kinds of medicinal plants and they ship! I have both the medicinal and an ornamental variety in my garden. Buhner's book Herbal Antivirals has a lot to say about elder varieities. On a side note, I have chosen to go on my vacation because I will be with a very small number of people out in nature for two weeks and I feel confident I can travel and get home before this explodes in the US. However, I am traveling with an unusual level of prep. I want to send a big thank you to Chris and Adam and this entire community for coming together to help us address this and make informed choices. See you in the other side of my trip!

let do some simple math. lets start with 74,000 people having the covid 19 virus.There about 1,700 hundred new infection every day.If you were to add this up for the next 16 days you get 101,200 total. There are 2,006 deaths so far,if you where to add 132 deaths for the next 16 days you get 4,118. Now divide the deaths by total infections and you get 4.07%. Numbers tell a story and this not a good number, if the death rate and new infection stay the same China can’t hide the truth munch longer.

With your usual thoroughness. Perhaps the primary care folks have more to add but it is a good list. I think it’s most important to check vitals when people aren’t feeling well (feeling feverish, short of breath) and at least a few times a day if they are ill. ALL symptoms should be reported. I agree with prior posts indicating that knowing your baseline numbers is important (before you get sick). The change in numbers can be just as important as the current numbers.
2 items to add are recent travel history and exposure to high risk individuals (people returning from Asia, known cases, contact with sick people.) No one has to name names but it is relevant.

If the numbers coming out of China are even remotely accurate, this might be the only infectious disease in the history of the world where the more people contract it, the fewer people they pass it on to.
It seems impossible for me to believe that the number of cases are rising, but the number of new cases is steady almost everyday. Using common sense and our understanding of exponential growth, the number of new cases already has to be in the millions. We need only look at the response from the Chinese, and governments around the world. Would they be going through all of this if the number of cases was so low? And, if the death rate from this thing was so low?
No way. None of what they are saying adds up.