Coronavirus Pandemic: The Next Two Weeks Are Critical

There is some information on this twitter thread. They were evidently Iranian nationals. https://twitter.com/yasnaH_/status/1230171926431240194

My dad was told the same thing. Keep a long-term supply of low dose aspirin and you can use it in place of plavix.

This just now from Arirang news in Korea
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pshp3uZzHTw

Most probably these are patients from somewhere in the Northwest. The first US case was that young man in Snohomish county, WA. Richland, WA, southwest of Spokane, is home to many scientists, esp. Nuclear engineers and scientists who travel worldwide. It appears they are being transferred from other hospitals. I sure wish we got more detailed information where they are from. Seattle? Next state north of me (yes, it’s all about me.)

Sacred Heart was selected because of its airborne infection isolation rooms, and the patients will be transported sometime in the next 48 hours, according to the statement.
https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/feb/19/providence-sacred-heart-will-treat-five-patients-w/
They are set up for high risk situations like Ebola.

I was reading our little rural county weekly paper, and noticed this huge set of help wanted ads for… CT tech, acute/ER nurses… and much more, can one of you docs or RNs let me know if this looks like a gearing up move?

thanks,
Eric & Cindy

Out of more than 30,000 passengers screened for fever by the CDC in the past month at US airports, not one passenger was identified as suspected for Covid-2019.
Regarding CDC’s guidance and prevention activities, '“They’re doing a great job at this,” said Osterholm, the epidemiologist in Minnesota.
These are the measures – information to travelers, doctors and hospitals – that can help stop the outbreak, Osterholm said, and less so the temperature screening.
“But everybody around the world is doing it, so I guess if we didn’t do it, we would look like we were being derelict in our duty,” he said." (Source)
I wonder how much the temperature screening façade cost, and who is footing the bill? Wait, are they still doing it???

Can’t find any definitive info on the origins for these cases. Posted youtube link below to full local news report (can also check local news site krem.com for updates). Reporters state they have asked where they are from but have not been told.
It will be interesting to see if these are new cases originating in US and when discovered? (if it turns out these had been hidden/delayed reported that opens up question to if there are others)
https://youtu.be/cOV2BpltZsY

Effectiveness of airport screening at detecting travellers infected with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
Full text: https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000080
Excerpt from abstract:
“We evaluated effectiveness of thermal passenger screening for 2019-nCoV infection at airport exit and entry to inform public health decision-making. In our baseline scenario, we estimated that 46% (95% confidence interval: 36 to 58) of infected travellers would not be detected, depending on incubation period, sensitivity of exit and entry screening, and proportion of asymptomatic cases. Airport screening is unlikely to detect a sufficient proportion of 2019-nCoV infected travellers to avoid entry of infected travelers.”
Link to (very cool, IMO) interactive model to change variables, assumptions: https://cmmid-lshtm.shinyapps.io/traveller_screening/

Has anybody seen the lights on in Hu Wey city in China? I hope I am wrong!No food, no water?

I think we’d probably agree with the idea that most economic disruptions are more predictable than the Black Swan idea would imply. Personally, I prefer the term Neon Swan - pandemics, climate disruption, etc. It’s NOT a question of IF there will be disruptions. The question is exactly when will we see an impact, how big and in exactly which variation.
"There are times when we should expect the system to reach a tipping point — the “Minsky Moment” — when a boom and a bubble turn into a crash and a bust. Such events are not about the “unknown unknowns,” but rather the “known unknowns.”

"Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the US presidential election. In addition to the increasingly obvious risks associated with climate change, at least four countries want to destabilize the US from within."
"The COVID-19 outbreak has reinforced the position of those in the U.S. arguing for containment, and lent further momentum to the broader trend of Sino-American “decoupling.” "More immediately, the epidemic is likely to be more severe than currently expected, and the disruption to the Chinese economy will have spillover effects on global supply chains — including pharma inputs, of which China is a critical supplier — and business confidence, all of which will likely be more severe than financial markets’ current complacency suggests." https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-ignoring-these-white-swan-events-that-could-upend-everything-roubini-warns-2020-02-18?mod=home-page&fbclid=IwAR0Sc9mQCTLUQndg1PlbiZpkCJjSN2m7YwPVCGA4HGsI0xHIniaNCJHOsYI

I start thinking something is not right - With reports saying 80% are elderly- though, I would not consider someone, normally healthy under 75 as an elderly person. I know plenty people like this that will easily work circles around the average millennial.
And then you have infants which are definitely not with a fully functioning immune system , and seem to have no issues.
and finally, this clearly seems to catch people in their 30s without any known health problems. I know the numbers are low. But never the less what bothers me is the severe cases still show in this age group. Meaning they all are getting significant treatment and having significant issues. They may obviously be more resilient to all the treatment and wear of the illness. But , is it possible that even if they survive, they end up with some sort of heart or respiratory damage? So, the questions is do we really need just to worry about those that die that are elderly. Or do we need to worry about the care that is required for these other age groups , and is it possibility many would end up with some sort of permanent disability. Are we just looking at CFR or should more attention be paid to those who actually survive and what this means and how much treatment even a young person will require and that it still about 20% complications rate , and then how much life long issues are on the horizon… and this doesnt even address the issue of being able to acquire the infection again, with even greater damage to the organ systems. ?? I mean what are we concerned with now?

Hundreds, if not thousands, of returning travelers have been quarantined at home, at military bases or medical facilities across the US. These 13 repatriated Americans from the Diamond Princess had a “high index of suspicion” for Covid-2019 infection, and some tested positive on the ship but were asymptomatic. All will be retested at the NE facility.
Could it be that health officials are taking extra precautions, concerned that the new coronavirus strain from Diamond Princess travelers is different (mutated?) and/or more virulent than what has been previously identified?
13 people, some of whom have tested positive for coronavirus, quarantined at Nebraska Med Center
“About 10 of the 13 reportedly had tested positive for the virus, officials said Monday. One of them, who has an unspecified chronic condition, was taken to the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit with a cough and lightheadedness, officials said. The 12 others have been placed in the National Quarantine Unit in the Davis Global Center at 42nd and Emile Streets.”
“Omaha was selected as the destination for these returned Americans because of the newly opened quarantine unit, which was built in partnership with the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, part of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.”
“Among those involved in the evacuation effort in Japan were two American infectious disease specialists: Dr. James Lawler of Nebraska Medicine and a doctor from Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. They accompanied the evacuated Americans back to the United States. Lawler is co-director of the Global Center for Health Security, which includes the quarantine unit. The unit consists of 20 negative-pressure, hotel-style rooms with TVs, refrigerators and Wi-Fi. It is separate from the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit, which is elsewhere on the campus.”
https://www.omaha.com/news/local/people-some-of-whom-have-tested-positive-for-coronavirus-quarantined/article_0c9c09f9-a6ff-5b83-8a59-6cf3a0b2041e.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/thousands-americans-voluntarily-self-quarantine-after-returning-china-n1138731

Thousands of travelers who have returned to the United States after recent trips to China are spending nearly half a month behind closed doors, under voluntary self-quarantine, even though they do not pose any immediate coronavirus-related health risk to others.

These are not people sick with COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. They have had no fever and no cough, and they aren't necessarily being tested for the virus.

Instead, they simply traveled in China within the past few weeks and have since been flagged by health officials at one of the 11 airports nationwide through which all U.S. citizens and their families flying from China are being routed. And now they're being asked to stay home for 14 days — the maximum amount of time it's thought to take to develop the illness after being exposed — limiting physical contact with others as much as possible and watching for symptoms.

"They don't want to expose their friends or their family. They just want to be home and safe," she said.

“Virus Catcher?”

(Source)
Note the health official is not wearing protective goggles.
Fast-forward a few weeks and there will be other countries with nets also chasing this bug, which will be much larger by then.
 

WA state now has 745 on self quarantine, up from 712. Where are these people coming from, I thought China flights were stopped?
For people returning from trip, wouldn’t the first place visited be the kennel housing your pet?

I was at the pub with some people earlier today and soon realized that one couple I was speaking to just got off a cruise ship and another person just got back from Vietnam 2 weeks ago. Another person at the table had been on a domestic flight. On top of that my wife works with a guy who just got back from Hawaii. All this is just in my piddly little western town in the US. As far as I could tell, nobody had the slightest concern about ‘the virus’.

Petition signed by 14,496 individuals. It is not known if/how many of those that signed are from the Alahambra Unified School District in California.
Prevent Spread of Wuhan Coronavirus in AUSD by Cancelling Schools until Outbreak Ceases
https://www.change.org/p/alhambra-unified-school-district-prevent-spread-of-wuhan-coronavirus-in-ausd-by-cancelling-schools-until-outbreak-ceases

Hospitals across the US prepare for coronavirus outbreak to become global pandemic

The COVID-19 epidemic in China has not yet met world health officials’ designation of a global pandemic that spreads far and wide throughout the world. While it has spread to more than two dozen countries, international health officials say there’s very little transmission on local levels outside of China right now. But they’ve warned that could quickly change. The virus is proving to be far more contagious than the flu, having spread from 300 people in mid-January to more than 75,700 as of Thursday morning. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/19/hospitals-across-the-us-prepare-for-coronavirus-outbreak-to-become-global-pandemic.html

Iran confirms three more coronavirus cases