Coronavirus: Up To 24 Days Before Symptoms Start Showing?

News & Current Events Public News & Current Events
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A new report finds that the incubation period for the coronavirus may be as long as 24 days, 10 days longer than previous expected.

That means that the potential size of "infected & contagious yet unaware" masses walking around (outside of China's quarantine borders) could be substantially larger than feared.

On top of that, additional data from China's hospitals in Wuhan show that once a patient is hospitalized, meaning their condition has become severe, the death rate is very high (~20%). More reinforcement that you want to avoid this virus if at all possible.

And yet, the stock market remains unconcerned to the pandemic threat. Another up day, despite a warning from the Council on Foreign on the fragility of the US economy’s dependence on Chinese supply chains.

Scary stat: 97% of all US antibiotics come from China.

Meanwhile, many regions in China are extending their ‘return to work’ deadlines as efforts to fight the outbreak continue. As we’ve been saying daily now, at some point, the markets are going to have to acknowledge the large and growing lack of economic production that is not occurring.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-up-to-24-days-before-symptoms-start-showing/

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20 years from now when students are studying this outbreak in school, one of the names a few will do class reports on will be Chris Martenson. LOL Chris, you may even get a high school named after you.

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Your latest video led me to believe you are in a city not in the rural countryside. Not that it is any of our business of course. However, we would love to hear your thoughts, frustrations and speculations for the future in a more informal manner. I, like many, anticipate your next update but would like your informal thoughts too.
Perhaps, this is the role you were meant for in life. We are grateful to not have to go through this time in history without you.
Love to be a fly on the wall as Chris and Adam BS about the state of affairs,
Grateful Granny?
 

4

Thank you so much for honest reporting! I am so glad I found this site.

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Perhaps this matters not, with some posts about the development of Rapid testing that can be done in a CLIA/COW (waived) manner as a POCT (Point of care test), as the current RT PCR rapid test for influenza, RSV and Group A Strep?
Copied/Pasted from CDC.gov
CDC has developed a new laboratory test kit for use in testing patient specimens for 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). The test kit is called the “Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time Reverse Transcriptase (RT)-PCR Diagnostic Panel.” This test is intended for use with upper and lower respiratory specimens collected from persons who meet CDC criteria for 2019-nCoV testing. CDC’s test kit is intended for use by laboratories designated by CDC as qualified, and in the United States, certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) to perform high complexity tests. The test kits also will be shipped to qualified international laboratories, such as World Health Organization (WHO) Global Influenza Surveillance Response System (GISRS) laboratories. The test will not be available in U.S. hospitals or other primary care settings. The kits will be distributed through the International Reagent Resourceexternal icon (IRR).

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Wow, up to 24 days incubation period for nCoV symptoms to manifest?? This is really bad news. Think of all those people screened and cleared using the 14-day criteria that may be infected–including the repatriated citizens from Wuhan to countries all over the world. This, in addition to using fever as a rapid screening indicator for nCoV infection, missing all those infected who may be asymptomatic. The US and other countries were very late to acknowledge person-to-person transmission of nCoV. Likewise, it’ll be weeks before they revise their screening criteria to reflect the potential 24-day incubation period. This pandemic is simply going to explode worldwide in the next few weeks and months.

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We are wondering if we are getting enough information , when I begin to feel the effects of information over-load. But if to wade through the minutia, the big picture is clear - and it pretty much is as your synopsis states. Basically we have a very transmissible virus with an incredibly long incubation period potential. The implications here are straight forward as you mention , virtually impossible to trace or contain. next we have a majority of 80% likely to have mild symptoms. And the bigger problem is the 20% left that will need some sort of medical care… And this is the BIG IF - how overwhelmed will the system be to adequately treat these people and how much will needed resources be affected? That question will determine whether we will have a fatality rate as low as 1% or as high as 15-20 %. In either case, even 1% CFR for a disease that will affect more than 15-20% of the population annually, will have an impact equal to having at least 10 flu going at once. So, the implications here are straight forward… a best case scenario is still very very significant to the health care system and the total amount of people to suffer. its not the flu… in no way shape or form and its not going to be contained in any shape or form… I think this all stated here is consistent no matter which data you look at and whether you take a conservative or aggressive standpoint.

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The Real Dangerous Of The NCOV Is Much More Than All The Media & Governments Are Telling You

If you want to win the battle, you must fully know & understand the enemies, their mechanism & features, weakness & strength.

The Chinese Government has underestimated the nCOV new Corona Virus, that is why they are failing and on the verse of a complete total collapse.

As a master of this Earth game, I can tell you that the real dangerous of the nCOV is not just above what the media & scientist are telling & will discovering in near future, but even far more than what any Governments & secret societies even dream & thinking.

In your thinking, what is a perfect deadly virus, what features it should have?

Then that is exactly the nCOV feature humanity are facing. It is even beyond novel & video game virus version one. It is the absolutely perfect one virus.

I will tell you some basic features of the nCOV:

– It can hide and stay in many popular daily objects like technology devices, doors, motors, cars, cloths, etc.

– It can stay in almost all conditions like humans including cold and hot.

– It can easily spread through air.

– It has all the features of a combination SARS, Ebola, HIV and even more than that.

– It can detect bad & good people & has it own spirit like a seen animal.

– It can develop and has it own evolution daily non-stop to adapt new environment.

– No any vaccine drug can work for this type of virus.

Etc.

You may ask so are we all going to receive that deadly virus?

My answer is that yes, all of you are going to receive that type in your life.

Many “weaker” Virus exist in your daily life environment already, it just that they are not “strong” enough for human need to be aware. But now it is just a more “stronger” one.

How to counter & overcome that nCOV virus?

I am not telling you now because I want to change the world system completely and give people more choice. And my blog website not yet famous. I do not want any secret societies, beings, government stealing & take credit for my own invention & creation.

Maybe many of the world leaders are in same bed, same secret societies and work against & want enslave the rest. Many of them are going to die because of this nCOV virus for sure !!!

Why there are no bounty reward from your government or any international organization for whoever able to solve this epidemic problems? Why don’t use the brain & mind set of all humanity together, but only rely on some “doctor, scientist”.

You need to remember that the SARS was cured not because of any vaccine or drug from the doctor/lab house. It came from pure luck of understanding the feature/mechanism of the SARS.

So you better stop waiting the doctors, scientist, etc.

The only way out of this deadly global epidemic event is listen to me and receive full mechanism, features of this new Corona virus, and of course include a working cure as well.

So if you want a perfect working cure for this deadly nCOV virus, you guys better telling your government/groups and share it to your friends about my web page https://theworld.data.blog & https://freejoy.aimoo.com .

Best Regard,

The Savior

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I’m not sure that mentioning the death rate once symptoms are severe enough to require hospitalization is helpful. It is the overall death rate that is most important and that appears to be staying constant at a little over 2%, possibly less if there are cases that aren’t being reported, perhaps because the symptoms are slight in those cases.

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2 points not to be missed from https://peakprosperity.com/new-research-suggests-the-coronavirus-may-be-far-worse-than-we-thought/
GreenDoc found this one. I’m shocked… SARS patients cured shedding up to 80 days virussen
A direct PDF link…
https://watermark.silverchair.com/42-11-1561.pdf?token=AQECAHi208BE49Ooan9kkhW_Ercy7Dm3ZL_9Cf3qfKAc485ysgAAAlcwggJTBgkqhkiG9w0BBwagggJEMIICQAIBADCCAjkGCSqGSIb3DQEHATAeBglghkgBZQMEAS4wEQQMFNJZeofdqfZcPLCfAgEQgIICCgSu8qEWvYkN8nkmHs8lID63K0BLKF-q1xEl121HvQOrhjpu3GWKLVbqaHDWB9Fs4VRONfLHvOfD5OZUpDZiA2MHgPx4iFWStWlPBkCf2kNnvFDpt1YPrW2o23ek5Pj8N5-kTCnzoVFt1Cw18DlaxV6VszQauAbOsPtnkfpcPPw0bTdKj_011xjek5FGioE9s_ahkhVedtt5MzCDWNzw2kAYT4AnWQ58mME2C64jIppVzy05G_C_qJl7OOMdQ1Kx4NWImx0L0kCUgFokNcurLIvXu9B5ldCMTxWa_lpM0qgLd3KkFZXsEiivTQasBtLDUqM739QZ11QGolr7A_MpQc7_8jq1BAyvCcOLwusCWR2hba1hndfsHKeyDGbqgB491AENXVzsNdmt4-F3bGKfDHZujqZlKZTljrMM4284EkhJIDyfKRngSn5zo5bNvZT7OR2v8MwNy8nMbD4HIRLfY5Qp_Nx8AOQVat8AD90sTZ9oRYMEjYfI-YikDRWaMprZO1jOVP7oPWSfgRYCNpOKWZ39SwlgdlhfMwnQYKihq1T6-wMBHiF7EaRsBa3F1e2KsVN450dJD9fzXuovucS168Ok4HIgGTI1w-xNBCJ4-ZudMMYmW3Hf0A_OlmaN8bGdCBn8xnywzVcNVFo00J5xVPD6kCMuQZbPt-JdwuemENm6iOJvxk9bkL-Zag
Another post was from Nate about Wuhan conditions.
A coworker from Wuhan told me the Chinese leadership decided long ago not to heat homes during the winter south of the Yellow River. This includes Wuhan. I asked him if the windows were closed to maintain some heat, and he said the humidity will spike and mildew will take over. Windows are kept open all winter. This time of the year the temperatures are about -10C. He thought hospitals would vary on heat – some would have it, some won’t.
Cities north of the Yellow river (Beijing) utilize coal generated steam and pump it through pipes. The air quality is horrible after every November 2nd.
Side note – he has visited family in Wuhan frequently and ALWAYS comes back to the states sick.
My take is that Wuhan and large cities in China are a biological and chemical cesspools. And when you throw in no heat during the middle of winter, I can’t image a decent survival rate. I don’t know if the virus will retreat with warmer weather, but a case can be made for reduced mortality during warmer weather.

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A letter to the world:
 
(09.02.2020)
 
The corona virus is spreading and the governments around the world are still pretending nothing is happening. Officials say not to worry because it’s just a flu. In a risk assessment even if you believe that there is a low probability that a harm occurs but the consequences are catastrophic such as a potential pandemic you still need to act. This threat should be taken more seriously and governments should provide all necessary supplies and staff to China and Asian countrys in order to slow the spread. We cannot afford to take the risk and just hope the problem will conveniently solve itself. This is a global threat. There needs to be a global response.
 
I still remember the Tabacco companies. Most experts said “smoking kills” (common sense), but Big Tabacco found some experts that said, “it’s not a problem.” The next time you read the newspapers, there was the slogan “experts say smoking is not harmful.” Well, Big Tabacco was telling the truth, there were experts… but reality was much different. What do I hear now from the news? “Mortality is not that high, future numbers will maybe relieve the situation. The action taken is a big burden on the economy (true) and could be a potential threat (supply chains).” We don’t have all the data yet! Cases just doubled in Singapore (since Feb. 3). It will take two weeks until we get reliable data from these cases, cruise ships (reliable data), Japan and so on.
 
I can’t believe that the global community didn’t even try to throw at least the same amount of money that got used to bail out the banks at the WHO to try and stop the spread. I mean at least TRY, there is a window of opportunity that could get exponentially smaller every day. There is stuff we can do! What happens right now is going into the history books, mark my words.
 
Point one: If we let this pathogen burn through the population, we have to live with it again and again and again. Imagine INDIA and AFRICA with the lack of healthcare and undernourished bodies. We are going to see different pictures from there.
 
Point two: This is a single-stranded RNA virus. The reason you have double-stranded DNA is that it’s more stable (lower mutation rate, less cancer and many other reasons). The RNA will produce many mistakes in its replication process leading to a higher potential for mutation. That could be good or bad. The Spanish flu circulated three times around the globe because it changed. People that got through the first wave were not immune to the new surface structure of the next wave.
 
I don’t want this! At least try, world! If the next generations have to live with it, they should read in the history books that we did every rational thing that we could do. Otherwise, it would be such a SHAME… I refuse to believe that we are talking monkeys with smartphones that are more scared of a recession. The Chinese extended holidays were supposed to end on Sunday (if I am informed correctly) and some people seem to be very scared of what will happens if the Chinese don’t go back to the factories and work and remain in quarantine instead. The numbers of the last two days, if correct, are a reason to have some hope. If we resume business as usual too fast, i am afraid that we will lose this advantage and contagion will become hopeless or very difficult and expensive.
Mr. John Campbell (watch him), your fact-based approach and honest discussion are a rare and very important tool for people to make objective and rational decisions with on this evolving topic. In the name of our little community -THANK YOU.
 
Mr. Gates, thank you for being smart and warning us of the obvious event that just had a big mathematical likelihood of happening. Please don’t feel offended by these weird conspiracy theories, they don’t know any better and subconsciously hope that some human is in control.
 
Mr. Musk, I guess you were right that people don’t understand exponential curves. They are emotional beings. What’s behind the simulation – impressively smart answer.
 
Mr. Buffet, always a step ahead - nice Basket.
 
Mr. Bezos, your super effective business concept is deeply connected with the Chinese supply chain. It would fit your name and your business if you helped the WHO. Others would follow.
 
To get this straight, a chemical or nuclear contamination will decrease exponentially with time. A biological contamination can increase exponentially with time.
Regarding all these conspiracy theories, later you have all the time in the world to compare homologous sequences and point fingers. In my opinion, I think it’s most likely that it originated from nature. It looks to me that the Big Investment companies got surprised by this event and need more time and good news to unload all their stocks to the little man (good book by the way). Just check Google trends.
 
Basic information (our past future calculations have been matched three weeks in a row ± 20 percent): R(0) between 2 and 4.08 (source: WHO), asymptomatic spread (source: WHO), human to human transmission (source: WHO), 3 - 12 (maybe 21) days incubation period, time being sick 6 - 23 days (you are able to infect others during the whole incubation time and time being sick), mortality rate - insufficient data but it looks like it’s not like SARS for now, regarding European countries air travel is still engaged with China (necessary for medical equipment and support, but seeding potential), air travel to China and people that have been to China in the last 14 days (incubation period) were stopped by the USA (it reduces the number of potential seeders/infection chains), single strand RNA virus, potential bacterial secondary infections (basically nearly all antibiotics are produced in China), no immunity (we are a virgin population).
 
Governments, you should have acted three weeks ago. Please act now to stop or at least slow the spread (healthcare capacity can be used for more people over a longer period of time if the infection chain is slowed down). In the words of the famous Elvis Presley, “a little less conversation, a little more action please.” The most efficient first steps will be to help China and Asia in containment. They need medical supplies, medical staff and maybe basics like food in the future if they are willing to keep up the containment efforts (if you do – thank you). In this case, solidarity might result in lower costs, “better” ROI; it will be a very expensive process anyways.
 
People, if your community is affected in the far future (might not happen), you are increasing your selfish individual benefit by an order of magnitude if you follow and maintain the social order! I urge you to follow the orders of the officials and stay rational! Any behavior that increases entropy will tie up resources and help spread the disease or its negative impact on society, which would directly or indirectly have a negative impact for you and your loved ones! To efficiently fight a virus, collective intelligence is the key and this lesson might have very good consequences for the future as well. To finish this, don’t be too scared, it’s not the end of the world. Fortunately, it’s just a coronavirus and it seems to be “harmless” enough to not constantly interrupt the global division of labor and working world we live in and all depend on. Listen to and follow the officials, help others and always, always! treat animals with respect as fellow beings on this planet to avoid something worse than this happening in the future again. Many Chinese factories opened today (10.02.2020) and I am afraid that we gone see outstanding numbers between April and May.
 
OK, I tried my best. While I am writing this, there is actually a storm approaching my hometown today, which reminds me of this proverb:
 
When The Winds of Change Blow, Some People Build Walls, Others Build Windmills – Chinese Proverb
 
Cheers, the little man.

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The link is faulty. This one should work.
https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/42/11/1561/282653

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Sharing this credible debunking of the SO2 and body burning on Reddit. In short it is modeled data, not real time sensor data. https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f19uc8/debunking_the_burning_bodies_sulphur_sulfur/

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When you wrote “It is the overall death rate that is most important” and I read that I burst out laughing.
No man, nobody is interested in that. What we are really asking ourselves when we talk statistics is if our personal death rate is going to happen. Lol
The most important death is our own.
Why else would we take a morbid interest in who this illness is killing and what their risk profiles were? Its because we are trying to compare ourselves against the fatality pattern over there to try and estimate our personal chances of survival.
Fortunately our chances are excellent. Part of it is the advantage of heightened awareness since the infection has struck first in Asia allowing us time to prepare.
But there are other factors. We tend to live alone and demand more personal space. Millions more people on this continent own private vehicles and do not share space willingly at the best of times. That in itself is a good defensive posture to take.
And millions more of us telecommute. We are surely one of the most connected societies on the planet where employers are willing to allow us to work from home and a lot of us don’t even have traditional employment anymore.
Third, cash use is low and falling so physical risk is on the decline in that one area of our lives. Not everyone agrees with a cashless society but at the moment it sure suits me to pay online, by phone or via the internet instead of going to town with wads of infected money. LOL
Fourth, we have a first rate medical system and some of the best educated and skillful people on planet Earth taking charge there. If I had my choice of where to fall ill whether in North America, China or Africa the answer is obvious.
So when I look at all the options and consider my personal chances of survival (my death rate!) I am pretty confident my odds are as good here as they will ever be.
Everything else is in the hands of the Angel’s.

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When you wrote “It is the overall death rate that is most important” and I read that I burst out laughing. No man, nobody is interested in that. What we are really asking ourselves when we talk statistics is if our personal death rate is going to happen. Lol
All we can say is you're not interested in that. All you care about is yourself but other people have family and friends they care about and many it may surprise you care about people dying in general. Of course our own death is normally the most important but saying 'nobody is interested in that' is somewhat obtuse. All we can say is it's your own personal view.
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My own checklist goes like this:

  1. Shop online
  2. Work from home
  3. Don’t rideshare or drive guests around
  4. Stay out of malls and restaurants and 7-11’s
  5. Avoid using physical cash
  6. Spend more time with the cat and avoid clubs
  7. Take my vitamins…stop smoking
  8. Avoid clinics and hospitals at all cost!
  9. We only need to live long enough until a vaccine is created. This can’t be that hard really. Like 18 months tops.
  10. We will be just fine. It’s the poor countries I feel badly about. Especially Africa. Let’s not forget to be charitable and generous. We have all the advantages they don’t.
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There are many accolades to Chris & Adam and Peak Prosperity in this video:
https://youtu.be/OtlNI-lJTgE
ADVChina is SPOT ON! These doctors lived here in Shenzhen and are married to Mainland Chinese families and even Chinese doctors. They have the best real time, boots on the ground data. They COMPLETELY understand Chinese culture and the CCP.
I know - I’ve lived here in Shenzhen for 7 years, worked in China for 30.
I was so happy to hear them shout out to Peak Prosperity!

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what is going on? Business Insider reports an outbreak of H5N1 in Hunan, which has a 60 percent mortality rate. What are the odds on such virulent pathogen outbreaks so close to each other. Is this nature strikes back or germ warfare?

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So, prior to the lockdown of Wuhan.
There is info tracking flights & cell data showing at least 60,000 people who left Wuhan alone after the outbreak, but prior to lockdown, and they’ve basically covered the globe.
Sobering.

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Nothing can be said until this outbreak has reached some sort of steady state, meaning more time has to pass. There is a big (unknown) lag from time of inoculation to death. Also, hospitals will likely get overwhelmed as time goes on, and as the ICUs get full the mortality rate will go up further. There are actually two mortality rates: those who receive first rate care including mechanical ventilation, etc, and those who do not have access.