That’s because the ninja viruses arch enemy is the 80 degree and sunny weather there!
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George, I can respect your views and wanting to check out a bit. Sometimes I find it draining to always search for latest updates.
Realistically, I wouldn’t expect any news of significant outbreaks in the US until late March/April ( If there ever is any big outbreaks period). I would guess China has been in a transmission cycle for at least 3 months. Plus I would expect any spread in US to be slower than China given our increased sanitary conditions and knowledge gained from China’s experience.
I am really angry at what is going on in the USA. And its one thing for drs and others to express thier ridiculous opinions, buts its another to censor media all together. Facebook and instagram have now censored all coronavirus searches to what they consider credible sources ie the CDC. this is reckless… I guess the US is out of control because they know what is coming well appears they are about finished. AND revolt will soon ensue.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/tanyachen/instagram-coronavirus-cdc-warning
And I have finally officially boycotted google. Their results have become really bad over recent mos and years and continuing to become worse and worse each day… They have become unusable and since there are better alternatives “duckduckgo” who doesnt track your every move, I have changed all my browsers default search, and no longer use them “at all” and I am a web marketer by profession, and i will not use them , advertise with them ( but that is another story ) . I have cut out facebook too and instagram is done as well.
Just want to be clear. I’ve got no basis for this other then looking at patterns for too long. But if i look at the below chart (courtesy of worldometers) That’s what i see.
And the reason i think they’re doctoring the numbers this way is to “force” factories to open again. See people, it’s all clear, nothing to see here, go back to work.
Communism is all about (well not all but a lot) production targets. These cannot be met, so people lie and say that they are. So if you can hit those production targets, next time, they’re a little higher, and the lie gets a little bigger. This is unsustainable of course. Eventually a watershed event shows the corruption and everything collapses.
Funny thing i was talking to a Russian friend about this the other day because he said the whole situation reminded him of Chernobyl.
The line follows the pattern of an outbreak too neatly. If you look at the actual SARS outbreak it’s a really choppy line. The below was drawn with paint.net, using a simple bezier curve with 4 points lol.
If i where to reassure people that the outbreak or even the worst is over, i’d expect the above line. Almost exactly.
In light of the zillions of airline flights between the US and the Wuhan during January 2020, I don’t understand why there aren’t more than 13 cases. Of course, I don’t want more cases, it just seems low. Maybe there’s some good news there for our ability to contain it since we aren’t so crowded.
Desogames, you may find this study and link to an interactive model developed by the University of Toronto interesting. Using sliders, you can change some of the variables and assumptions to graph results. Here’s the info with the link from my post earlier today: https://peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-up-to-24-days-before-symptoms-start-showing/#comment-331571
dont worry its out there , the US is done. This cannot be contained. look at the cruise ships. Yes they are in close quarters. However, the time this virus lives on surfaces, its obvious incubation period ( reference US 13th Case ) dictates that this is here and its not going to be stopped. It just takes a long time to develop to illness due to incubation plus time to get severe, then time to succumb. And with all that, it will still be missed. Viruses are like bacteria as they are quantitative for them to multiply… ( exponentially ) the first weeks of the culture will be slow… and then it gets a head of steam. it took a month or little longer after its discovery to realize it was an issue. Then it has to mushroom a bit to get enough numbers to get just a few spread around the globe - this all happened in mid jan- 3rd week of jan… We will need a good month to 5 weeks to see where were are at. I dont expect the issue to show in the US before 28 of Feb to 10 of March… And then you can post this same question. The US will not quarantine , they even stated they do not agree with china shut down and isolation together ," its like closing the barn door after the horses have left" they are already in the camp - there will be no isolation and no quarantine. They will play with the numbers worse than the chinese - and let everyone know this is not fatal… its mild… We will see less than 1% death rate by far… The US would never publish more or true numbers. They need to control social unrest in their own way… they will down play it limits its exposure on media - censor the media - which is already being done. they will be ambiguous to real questions and real facts. and they will keep you in the dark . You are just a number - a game they have no problem with… it will be no where near the concern in numbers of fatalities to bother the US officials… They wont burder the medical costs… in fact they are looking at as a win win-- kills the oldest population… save millions in medicare and ssa costs… WIN win. No problem, if the US could have created a virus - this would be the one, Which they may have… according to the chinese -and wouldnt put it past the US govt.
I live in Singapore. Singapore has a very tight control of everything and has been quarantining every close contact of every known case. IE a very high rate of discovery of infections is likely. So far number infected, 47, number dead, zero. The last 2 days only 2 new infections identified each day and more patients are now leaving treatment having recovered than being diagnosed. In China, number of new infections collapsing and has now dropped to approximately half from peak.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-2-new-cases-in-spore-including-man-who-works-at-rws-casino-2-more
Many countries in Europe are still accepting tourists from China (excluding Hubei province) and still no explosion of cases. And remember, even though max incubation time may be 14 or even 24 days, the average incubation time is FAR lower - approximately 3 days.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus
This is a storm in a teacup and it is close to blowing itself out.
Thanks for helping me find info on Patient zero and how long this thing has been going on. My son went to Vietnam but had two 24 hour stop overs in China coming back Christmas day. His brother has been sick for the past few days with a horrendous headache, body aches. Could be regular flu or not I’m not sure but now his girlfriend has it and her lungs hurt. Makes me wonder. She’s a nurse and I’m trying to figure out what to do. Pretty unlikely but not impossible and seeing in Canada we can’t even get a test unless someone was in China very recently AND develops symptoms, how would we ever know? Should I post this on the forum generally to get people’s advice?
I think we have got to weigh the costs here. The Chinese model of containment points to economic collapse if it goes on long enough. Not just for them but for all of us.
We know where this is going. At some point the healthy will just carry on and the sick will get left behind. Nothing ever changes with human nature. Only fear keeps people confined right now but patience with that has almost run out already.
The economy will restart. Let the chips fall.
Yeah.............. unless it’s YOU who need a hospital bed and respirator, or your child. Everybody else.............
Sparky1 we just lack too much accurate data. Models are only as good as the data fed into them and once the truth comes out I’ve got a feeling all the models will be adjusted.
I’ll put the most faith into the earliest studies and reports actually. Bureaucratic machines are big, lumbering, slow. There was a good period between somewhere around the 15th when zero hedge started reporting on it and after the lock down of Wuhan when information started to become restricted that a few good bits of info came out.
Let’s not forget that the first study that came out with an R0 number was a study that put it at R3.8 to 4.0 and that same study was adjusted down within a day to the 1.8 to 2.5 number Chris was using in his video. It’s obvious now that was due to political pressure and not science.
I jumped on this as early as it was reported on ZH, not because i have any knowledge about viruses (heck i even don’t have a high school diploma) but because i’m autistic and i’ve learned how normal humans behave.
And when i saw persistent rumors (AKA rumors that come into existence independently from each other but neither can be verified so they continue to be rumors) about the asymptomatic spread, with the official channels downplaying every aspect of the virus… i knew it was bad.
If it wasn’t bad; it would’ve been blown out of proportions so the CCP could swoop in and “save” everybody. Communism Loves a Hero story.
And lies. Many lies. And Obedience. Strict Obedience. The bosses expect results; paper or otherwise. Underlings can’t deliver so they lie more and lie harder. People who lie get promoted; those who don’t get gulagged. This breeds and promotes incompetence, as only the incompetent will spend more effort on lying then actually producing while the competent and their conscience get silenced.
On that note; the reason i’ve checked back here; another important news message:
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/angry-people-will-no-longer-be-afraid-1000s-chinese-miltarypolice-quarantined-dozens
I mean this makes sense. Remember the images of the medics going to wuhan? They wheren’t exactly using full body gear now where they? and we knew the hospitals where out of resources before the military came in. Plus the reports that boxes have stacked up at the red cross, PLUS that the military is now in full control of all medical provisions in hubei.
It might very well happen that the truth is gonna come out together with complete societal collapse of china; and then we’re in a real pickle.
EDIT: Adding this link as well. Same subject. However it shows also how infectious this thing really is; or how little supplies they really have in Wuhan. Remember; all of it is under military control at the moment.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050077/least-500-wuhan-medical-staff-infected-coronavirus
After a huge military battle has finished and the villages count their dead soldiers do the people stop farming and just starve while they grieve? I am only speaking to a truth we all know is self evident. Whatever the cost we shall carry on. That is human nature and has nothing to do with the emotional aspects of any given disaster.
The truth is determined by those in power. Look at how this subject us being censored.
Our jobs were off-shored to China and now we are supposed to feel bad for the economy? For greedy, indifferent corporation’s? Our owners are afraid of us! Yep we the people who are supposed to die so the economy can rock and roll. How about we get pissed and demand change! Remember Rosevelt stepped up and created change after the depression cause he was afraid of what the people would do.
Acquiescing will not help us.
In case you missed this update, remember China has now stopped counting positive cases that are asymptomatic in their daily infection data. The belief is this will help support the image of decreasing cases. This makes their already garbage suspect data even worse…
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490
The authority likes to think it has gained a good grip on the spreading of the deadly virus, but much remains to be seen for the following reasons. One, as of February 11th, the total confirmed case is 42,747 and the death 1,017, which seems a bit too low from what originally announced mortality rate of 4%. To say the very least the figures reported daily are definitely on the conservative side as all information released through the news outlet is sanctioned by the government which regards political stability as the ultimate guarantee for China’s continued development and prosperity. Up to this day even through the conservative official news media, there is no discernible trend suggesting the emergence of new cases are in the decline. Two, with the extended Chinese New Year holiday finally coming to an end, vast number of migrant workers once again swarm into big cities to work. And along with those migrant workers they bring worrisome possibility of spreading the virus they caught during holiday at their hometown: they use public transportation, they live in densely populated districts with each of them remain in close proximity to one another.
The central government has intensified its pressure on each provincial government to keep tight control of the flow of its people as the first line of defense to stymie the further spread of coronavirus. So each province is now making its own rules to regulate how people live and how business be allowed to resume operation. In Shanghai, there is not a declared rule that prohibits the reopening of our factory, but we are having a difficult time to proceed. What our factory learnt was that it needed to have X number of facial masks on hand along with X amount of hand sanitizing solution, etc. Once our factory can prove that it has all the necessary precautionary measures in place, it can then apply for permit to start production. The problem is that the facial masks are nowhere to be found, no matter the price! For private citizen, the government allows each household to register with local authorities for purchasing 5 masks in every five days from local, but no such provision for business. And we are told for all these days factory remains closed we still need to pay the workers as usual. For factories whose labor forces are from other provinces, I am not sure how they will cope with this extraordinary circumstances.
The city’s predicament is that it definitely does not want to see the migrant workers return to Shanghai for fear of them spreading coronavirus and bring down the city; yet it cannot operate without the migrant workers taking on the jobs the local people shun.
We do not see the end of this ordeal although some experts forecast the beginning of the end should be in late March. The scare is palpable everyday and everywhere and it is more so than two weeks ago.
Our jobs were off-shored to China and now we are supposed to feel bad for the economy? For greedy, indifferent corporation’s? Our owners are afraid of us! Yep we the people who are supposed to die so the economy can rock and roll. How about we get pissed and demand change!Ayn Rand perhaps had the best suggestion: Let it suffocate under it's own weight. At some point people will begin to realize that we are human beings and not cogs in a corporate/national/tribal machine. We will reform in local communities and begin making solutions which do not involve participating in any massive regime of money/power/control. People will create their own software, manufacture locally with 3D printing technology (or the old-fashioned way), produce their own food. Logistics will still exist, but on the scale of modern-day buggy whip manufacturers. The leaders will be there. Their [paid] cheerleaders will be there. The meeting halls will be empty: no crowds will form, no one will vote for them. They will be irrelevant. They may get bored and go home. And a new era will dawn.
For those unfamiliar with the stock market vocabulary.
Equity Market Definition - Investopedia
www.investopedia.com › Investing › Markets › Stock Markets
Mar 29, 2019 - Equity markets are the meeting point for buyers and sellers of stocks. The securities traded in the equity market can be either be public stocks, which are those listed on the stock exchange, or privately traded stocks.
Institutions, not individuals, invest in repos. The Chinese government controls companies and can get active in the market directly or by ordering companies to purchase stocks.
https://www.ft.com/content/0d41cb6e-4717-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
nCoV-2019 to COVID-19 - I just dont see what the problem with nCov was it was novel for 2019 - we are not in 2019 anymore so there is no chance of have a more novel coronavirus… so this seems pretty dumb to me.
If temperature impacts the virus, then the incidence should be much lower in Hainan Province which is at the same latitude as Hawaii’s Big Island and more prevalent in Heilongjiang Province which is at the same latitude as Siberia. Probably not enough cases to see a statistically significant difference yet, but that is what I would expect.