A side note on lung scaring. My father had very severe pneumonia in about 1940. At the beginning of 1942 he was drafted, but rejected as 4F. They told him he had lung cancer. It took him the whole war to figure out he was not going to die of cancer.
Expert says survival of virus declines with warmth.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-expert-says-knows-virus-204850255.html
Look at this in the New Zealand Aoteaora media today…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307892
Another novel idea?
If the virus were indeed a weapon wouldn’t it be interesting to have someone do a deep dive on the stock market and see if people were uncharacteristically profiting from the stock market during the early days of the virus? Cui bono - who benefits? Just would be interesting but not enough to do the digging.
Does anyone know much about patient zero and what time this patient became symptomatic? Now knowing from Chris’s recent video that the incubation period is up to 24 days it would then be easier to gauge precisely how long this has been travelling around theoretically, especially given it’s got such a high RO.
I made a mistake.
From the beginning i said that Chinese wouldn’t kill Chinese on purpose.
This i still hold firm.
Either it was a mistake or foreign.
I still hold firm.
Then i said, because the Chinese released the genetics almost immediately, that chances where the Chinese where responsible.
Now, i don’t know that even by biggest chance. You grow… I just don’t know.
China is no longer reporting asymptomatic cases lol. The new data dump “shows” declining new cases.
There are currently 44,754 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,112 fatalities.
The international case numbers are as follows
478 confirmed infections with 2 fatalities. Of the 478, about 130 of them are on the cruiseship Diamond Princess. I saw a youtube video where the lady that was confirmed infected and released from the ship described her symptoms and said it was mild.
Just gotta be honest here, my level of concern about this outbreak is dropping more and more. If this bug is here to stay then I can worry about it more if it ever becomes widespread in my area (southern california). Lets be honest here, so many people came from China before the travel ban was announced so by now there would be a bunch of sick people in Socal. But crickets. I’ve stocked up more than enough which I’m glad. Until I see more data for my local area I’m going to tune out a bit.
Cheers
One of the things I do for a living is recruit physicians, which means I spend a lot of time calling doctor’s offices all over the US. Today I am recruiting Family and Internal Medicine docs in CA and for the first time heard a recording that plays for anyone on hold saying that if you had traveled to China recently or had contact with someone who did, to please inform the person you speak with.
Using conservative assumptions, University of Toronto researchers developed an interactive model (link below) that indicated the nCoV outbreak started earlier (mid-Nov.) than commonly reported (mid-late Dec.). The study and results were published in the Annals of Internal Medicine. (link below).
Chris and others here may want to play with the interactive model to develop different scenarios (e.g., different Ro). Apparently the case report data are uploaded (source?) daily.
Model built by U of T researchers suggests coronavirus outbreak began in November, has yet to be controlled
“The coronavirus epidemic started one month earlier than is commonly reported and has yet to be brought under control, a new disease-transmission model created by University of Toronto researchers suggests.
Using open access data that are updated daily, the model replicates epidemiological scenarios and allows researchers to test narratives about the outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China – including the notion that it started in December.”
https://www.utoronto.ca/news/model-built-u-t-researchers-suggests-coronavirus-outbreak-began-november-has-yet-be-controlled
Reporting, Epidemic Growth, and Reproduction Numbers for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Epidemic
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2760912/reporting-epidemic-growth-reproduction-numbers-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov
Interactive UoT nCoV model: https://art-bd.shinyapps.io/nCov_control/
The world stock markets during the past few months have increased in value by $trilllions, much, much, more than the Chinese government support. The US and Europeans governments do not prop up the equity markets.
It is established science that sunshine and heat kill viruses, which is the reason the flu season is during the winter. Premier Xi was just mentioning the obvious. Below is an interview with a virologist. Heat and sunshine may save India from catastrophe.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-expert-says-knows-virus-204850255.html
Three day incubation:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus
As I mentioned elsewhere, I bought $200 worth of defense goods, masks, etc. I doubt I will use much of them.
Supporting the premise that we are not being given straight numbers by the CCP,
South China Morning Post, Feb 11
At least 500 Wuhan Medical Staff infected by coronavirus
At least 500 hospital staff in Wuhan had been infected with the deadly new strain of coronavirus by mid January, multiple medical sources have confirmed, leaving hospitals short-staffed and causing deep concern among health care workers.
While the government has reported individual cases of health care workers becoming infected, it has not provided the full picture, and the sources said doctors and nurses had been told not to make the total public.
The reason for this edict was not explained, but the authorities have been trying to boost morale among frontline medical staff, especially following the death of Li Wenliang, who was killed by the disease weeks after being reprimanded by police for warning colleagues about the new virus....
Thanks, James, this is interesting, but not especially convincing, IMO.
It seems odd that this information was provided not by/through health or medical venues, but through a private conference organized by a brokerage house for the benefit of investment analysts:
“In a private conference call organized last week by CLSA, a brokerage firm based in Hong Kong, investment analysts had a chance to ask Nicholls, one of the world’s foremost experts on the topic, questions about the novel coronavirus. News of the private conference call was first reported by The Financial Times…”
Other excerpts from the article that make me question Mr. Nicholls’ (he’s a professor, does not have his MD or Phd) assumptions and conclusions (bold added):
“Nicholls also said that he doesn’t consider SARS or MERS, a Middle Eastern novel virus that spread in 2012, to be an accurate comparison for this year’s outbreak. Rather, the novel coronavirus most closely relates to a severe case of the common cold.”
“Compared to SARS and MERS, we are talking about a coronavirus that has a mortality rate of eight to 10 times less deadly to SARS to MERS,” Nicholls is quoted as having said on the conference call. “So, a correct comparison is not SARS or MERS but a severe cold. Basically, this is a severe form of the cold.”
“Similar to a common cold, the surrounding environment of the outbreak plays an important role in determining the survivability and spreadability of the virus, he continued. Because of the impending shift in seasons, Nicholls said he expects the spread of the virus to be curbed in a matter of months.”
'“I think it will burn itself out in about six months,” Nicholls said."
Here’s the transcript of the call. (I haven’t had a chance to go through it.): https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert
“Three things the virus does not like: 1. Sunlight, 2. Temperature, and 3. Humidity,”
The world stock markets during the past few months have increased in value by $trilllions, much, much, more than the Chinese government support. The US and Europeans governments do not prop up the equity markets.Wow, where have you been while the Federal Reserve has pumped billions into the repo market since September? https://peakprosperity.com/wtf-what-the-fed/
This is from the Hubei province Health Committee (official) - have google translate as needed. Note that the new cases specifically call out pneumonia: “1638 new cases of pneumonia”
http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200212_2024650.shtml
Perhaps this is all lost in google translation, but reading it makes you think the numbers being reported are those with pneumonia, which would be a minority of actual people with the virus itself - most who get mild symptoms.
Anyone who can read chinese and report on what the announcement actually says would be greatly appreciated.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Scroll down and look at the numbers.
19% of active cases are serious or critical.
Scroll down a little more and you’ll see that there still are not many cases out of China.
This was just posted on the BNO News case Tracker https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
I read through the transcript, interesting perspectives . Some of his commentary is shoot from the hip predictions (guesses). I think his points about many chinese not tested/under testing is valid.
In other comments I think he may be wrong/misinformed (see pic below). The Reports i’ve read indicate high transmissibility. This includes the 138 case report which details how a large group of hospital staff were infected…
https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/conference-call-coronavirus-expert
Not one has been reported as infected
This is the problem. If we depend on ‘official’ reporting, we will be led like the sheep, or worse, like the lemmings over the cliff.
It is best for ‘official reporting’ if everyone believes the official narrative and nothing is happening here and life is to return to whatever ‘normal’ is supposed to be.
Remember that stored food is somehow magically ‘wasted’ if you never eat it. And we all know that you won’t eat food that you already have! Silly humans only eat food bought within the past 72 hours with funds approved by Mr. Emmanuel Goldstein! How could you forget your brainwashing, I mean education by public schools so many years ago?
There is a Chinese-manufactured pharma drug to help you with those nagging worries which wake you up at night. Nothing to see here. You are a paranoid conspiracy theorist who sees empty pharmacy shelves and no masks or food available. Grab another bag of Cheetos!