Late last night, I had a phone conversation with my girlfriend who is staying in Southwest China.
She confirmed what this podcast is saying. Chinese television is telling people flat-out that the incubation period may be a full four weeks.
This might be research that could save some lives…Or at least a break from the resp wards Non-stop choking patients… some relief for them ?
Just saying
I have no unrealistic fantasy at 57 of surviving the trauma to heart and lungs typical of this virus so far…the scans on the lancet site were terrifying in their implication.
Quality of life for a large portion of survivors post Icu…probably won’t be a happy time.
The lungs scarring typical of the infection isn’t likely to improve much. this link might be a treatment safer than hyperbarik chambers as a last resort .
This link is old tech and now almost ready to deploy…
…but might actually give Dr’s a way to introduce meds and ease the suffocating terror of one whose heart & lungs are failing coughing unable to take deep a breath …fluid building up, exacerbating a hopeless situation with a slow buildup of still more co2 til it overloads us …Finally too exausted from fighting for air…we eventually give in.
If co2 wins we lose…
But possibly allowing some respite…this crazy memory of 50+yr old idea.
Remember the abyss?
Be a good way to get to mars too if the ships filled with a similar stuff…?
Its not science fiction anymore.
Some hospitals are using it to save preemies with bad lungs
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://academic.oup.com/bja/article/91/1/143/276179&ved=2ahUKEwiS7b7F9cnnAhUNcq0KHfXACGs4ChAWMAV6BAgFEAE&usg=AOvVaw0GlL6M2hBuNzO4-Aaj-W5s
What happened to these?
Finallly a local US testing capability (but says still has to be double checked by CDC if positive). Lots of issues remain with testing but hoping this is a good step.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-coronavirus-first-state-to-test-illinois-20200211-65tlopwjijfelmzyebfvk55gku-story.html%3FoutputType=amp
Would be interested in anything your girlfriend would share regarding conditions …her direct observations …anything to help us sift out the truth…
At least Tom Cotton is talking about this too:
“Simply and horribly, this is likely to become another Chernobyl or Fukushima – a catastrophic illustration of mankind’s hubris and intransigence clashing with Nature, as fate again reaps a once unimaginably tragic toll.”
Mjvoet, I would imagine Chris and Adam are pretty busy going thru the news and getting the almost daily video done to have time for the daily market reports. Not sure how many additional people they have on staff.
Two items
- Total non-China cases for the last week:
2-10 457, 2-9 376, 2/8 361, 2/7 318, 2/6 310, 2/5 257, 2/4 213, 2/3 188
The cases are coming in irregularly, but have been doubling every six days for 2/9 and 2/10. Could be exponential? Not good if it continues. - Another good indication of the success for China’s virus response will be how successful China’s manufacturing restarts are over the next few weeks. It will entail close quarters in commuting to the factories and on the factory floors. Also, most types of PPE interferes with working 8-10 hours. We will see.
The world is not a closed environment.
I’m just hypothesizing that the results of locking people in a giant test tube aren’t going to be 100% applicable as to rates of infection in the public at large. I’d say that the rates of infection would be greater on a cruise ship.
Is a “Lord of the Flies” type scenario a good model of social structures in the real world, or are they constrained by the circumstances?
Let’s get this party started.
All stocked-up on food for a few months, elderberry syrup, decongestant, throat lozenges, vitamins, supplements, water, disinfectants, masks, and on and on … staying strong and building the immune system. Plant based diet for seven+ years now.
If what we hear is true, then it’s best my generation doesn’t get this virus… too old … the associated pneumonia is bad news…if it doesn’t kill us, quality of life will be diminished with the scarring of the lungs and heart damage…
This boomer and his wife could self-isolate for months. We are in for the duration.
Do you think we in the USA may have overreacted? Or, is this just the lull before the storm?
Haven’t seen or heard of much concern in Atlanta.
The AP headline from January 11th, barely more than a week earlier, was “China reports 1st death from new type of coronavirus.”
On January 19th, no one had said people were contagious when asymptomatic, no one had said the virus could remain active on surfaces for up to 9 days, no one had said it was airborne, no one had found it in patients after they appeared recovered, nor had they found the virus present in every conceivable bodily emission except for toenail clippings.
On January 19th, people from Wuhan were still boarding airplanes. The Daily Mail ran an article about a frantic search for “missing” people who had entered the UK before flights were suspended. " Almost 1,500 people flew from Wuhan to the UK between January 10 and January 24 before all flights in and out of the Chinese city were cancelled."
People reading here already know this stuff, of course. It’s just meant as a prelude to my question: What about the stewardesses? I haven’t flown in over a year, but they do still employ them on airplanes, do they not? Stewardesses who walk the aisles handing all the passengers those bags of mini-pretzels, and napkins to wipe their fingers and faces with, and cups of pop or booze to drink from, and who come back to pick up those same plastic cups after they are coated with saliva. I don’t remember seeing any of them scrubbing their hands down with sanitizer or switching off pairs of latex gloves between servicing every passenger.
So, if any of those airline employees contracted the virus, they could potentially only now be showing symptoms of an illness they unknowingly were contagious with for more than three weeks. How many other flights did they work? How many people could they have infected? And, of those passengers, especially the frequent-flyer businessmen or extended vacationers who were infected, how many bars and restaurants did they visit while waiting for their next flight to board? How many bartenders and waitresses picked up those used glasses and utensils, and then served another customer? How many hours did they pass hanging around an airport lounge while people from every destination on earth brushed past them, put their hands on the same armrests, or followed them into restroom stalls.
If everything we’re being told about nCoV today is accurate, I guess we’ll know the answer pretty soon.
The Telegraph headline is based on the Imperial College study from Jan 25th. They came up with 20% by estimating the time lag between case rate and fatalities at that time.
We have more recent and better data now which implies that the death rate is significantly lower than this. The JAMA paper from a few days ago and the Straits Times interview with its author Dr. Peng. Dr Peng is suggesting that
- of patients admitted to hospital approximately 26% enter ICU
- of patients entering ICU approximately 15% die (he indicates that this may edge up a little but he does not expect it to change too much as most of his patients are now on their way to recovery)
- this translates to a 5% death rate for those admitted to hospital who receive good care - 4 patients needed ECMO (artificial lung) for example.
Dr Peng also notes that “most” patients do not need to be admitted to hospital at all and that therefore the overall rate is much lower than 5%, but acknowledges that he does not have accurate data here.
Zerohedge has reprinted most of this story wothout a paywall here: https://www.zerohedge.com/health/death-rate-5-harrowing-admission-wuhan-doctor and the JAMA paper is here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdYOmBA6VVo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuenKXZQ-kY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CG0up6TeJCI
The article below says 24 day period is rare. This is great news because the hundreds of passengers who flew to the US and Europe last month on planes with infected persons would be sick by now. The RO factor then must be around two or less.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/research-shows-3-day-median-incubation-period-for-coronavirus
Westcoastdog, Have you been watching and learning from Chris’ videos, not just the nCoV series, but also those in the Crash Course series? It may take time but they are very enlightening. Here’s another excellent resource for well-researched reporting regarding economies and the ““markets””: http://themoneygps.com/youtube/
You said, “the stock markets around the world are up, ignoring the NcoV virus. Obviously, the smart money is dismissing the threat of the virus.”
The stock market is being pumped-up through daily injections of billion$ by the buyer of last resort, the Federal Reserve, through their repo operations. (FR daily reports here) Banks have been using the funds to maintain liquidity, with fed funds sloshing among and between these TBTF banks. Otherwise credit would freeze-up and the system would come crashing down. Company executives and other insiders have been cashing in their stock options, selling stocks back to companies, which have been using this cheap/free money to buy-back their insiders’ stocks, pumping up their stock price without producing anything of real value (e.g., capital improvements). PE/stock valuations are ridiculously, dangerously high. The ““markets”” are also pumped by institutional investors (e.g., pension funds, 401Ks) who are chasing high-yield, high-risk investments given that traditionally safe investments (e.g. bonds) have tanked to record lows. The ““markets”” have become manipulated signaling devices with no reality-based price discovery function. The ““markets”” relentless trend higher regardless of good news or bad, signals to the masses that “everything is fine!”–until it isn’t. The “smart money” has been getting out of the market and of those that haven’t, they’re engaged in pump-and-dump operations. They’ll get out through the few remaining exits, while the majority will get trapped inside collapsed ““markets””. nCoV just might be the Black Swan catalyst for a series of cascading economic and social failures. My guess is that TPTB are/have been prepping for this outcome for a long time, and will likely benefit on the down side–if they don’t lose total control.
“It has been more than two weeks since the planes carrying infected people to the US and Europe, and not one fellow passenger or crew member has become contaminated.”
How do you know that for certain? There is still much we don’t know about this virus given the limited and questionable data available. Now with a 24-day incubation period possible and asymptomatic infectivity, it may be too early to identify those infected individuals.
And what do we know about the nCoV “recovered”? Do they remain infective after, and if so, how long? The media and passengers are reporting on the status of quarantined cruise ship passengers and crew, there’s been very little reported about the status of repatriated citizens and travelers under quarantine. Where are the first-person stories, the warm homecoming reunions of families cleared from quarantine, or recovered if sick? No updates posted on FB, Instagram, Twitter by individuals or loved ones about life during and after nCoV quarantine? Its like they entered a witness protection program-style information/communication blackout. Maybe our media and authorities are taking some tips from the CCP censorship playbook.
“I find that reassuring. Premier Xi believes the warm weather in April will mitigate the spread of the virus.”
And why does Xi (and Trump) believe that? Is this based on science or spin? Where’s the evidence and it is reliable? And even if true, will the warmer temperatures be sufficient enough to off-set the multiple biological and systemic variables already well underway that will drive this nCoV outbreak into a full-blown worldwide pandemic?
I’m glad you feel reassured by Xi’s and Trump’s hope-inspiring words. I hope their assurances plus your $200 worth of defensive supplies will be enough to keep you and your loved ones safe and healthy if this pandemic explodes.
For me, I plan for the worst and hope for the best rather than rely on the pacifying assurances of “leaders” whose interests may or may not coincide with mine.
The Council (local government) are furious at being kept out of the loop:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/brighton-councillor-coronavirus-threat-hidden-samer-bagaeen
Anybody who thought democratic countries would do better at transparency than China may be about to discover otherwise.
There are reports of more GP surgeries closing. Three so far:
https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/18227707.coronavirus-brighton-another-gp-surgery-closes/
The story is that they were all visited by a GP that caught the coronavirus in France and then came to Brighton. Though other stories mention two health workers infected:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-brighton-gp-county-oak-medical-centre-nhs-uk-outbreak-test-a9327446.html
Initial reports were that the man walked into the local hospital, now they have been corrected. Makes you think whether it was known, when the story broke out, that healthcare workers were infected, and journalists were hunting for a plausible explanation. Which wouldn’t be needed if they knew how it happened, and why wouldn’t they be told? Maybe because the truth is another plausible explanation: by the time that contact tracing got to this man, he already had symptoms and had gone to his doctor, not knowing he possibly had this coronavirus. That would also explain why local councillors are saying things like that this has already spiraled out of control.
The name of the man that started the cluster is Steve Walsh. It rings a bell, I used to be involved in nonprofit activities in Brighton and he’s been described as a scout leader. Probably he was involved in other charitable activities and events. I’ll try to see if I can find any further information from my contacts.
There are also reports of more suspected cases. Probably the news of the virus has led to more cases of people reporting in the area. But if any of those becomes a confirmed case unrelated to Mr Walsh, I would start asking: How come there are two clusters in Brighton (a small city) and zero in London? Does that look remotely likely?
China is ruled by gangsters. The proces of truth finding is not to be found.
US is ruled by Chinese bought or terrorized ‘business’ people.
From DARPA many unicorns sprouted. Who got the IPO ?
These tech companies are now suppressing the normal people.
Let us name them, shame them and then lame them…
My local department of health is accepting the 3 day incubation period, 1 percent mortality data. They are also telling school staff that it’s not necessary to put masks on people who violate quarantine and show up at school before day 14, just put them aside and call the health department. My question to them is how confident are they? Would they sit in a room of new arrivals from an epicenter, with no PPE in the room, on day 4 after exposure to the virus? It is still very early and while I respect the doctors and hope they are correct the risk of being wrong is quite high. Typhoid Mary comes to mind, one person with a 24 day incuation period could innocently infect many people. It is quite a quandry.
Oil markets may be less subject to money-printing manipulation, but still subject to geo-political manipulation. Given that the petro-dollar system still rules trade and politics (for now), declining price of oil below threshold (e.g., $55/pb I’ve heard) increases the likelihood of conflict or war.
In the short-term, conflict and war increase demand (and price) for oil as militaries are the biggest consumers of oil. Defense-based stocks increase as demand for weaponry and war-related equipment and supplies increases. Oil supply shocks (e.g., tanker bombing, impeding or closing oil supply transportation routes) may also increase price of oil.
PP member Dave Fairfax has a much better understanding of ““markets”” and economic drivers and indicators. You can find his outstanding analysis and charts, and informative comments by other PP members on the PP PM forum: https://peakprosperity.com/forum-topic/pm-daily-market-commentary-02-10-2020/
So, this woman from Oregon only found out she has the virus by answering “yes” on a questionnaire that she takes over the counter pain medication (Tylenol, Advil etc). She had no symptoms. Because of her answer, she had a throat swab and was found to have the virus and was transported to a hospital in Tokyo. This is a 10 minute interview. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TAafDOqfN3M Hopefully, her symptoms don’t escalate and she makes a full return to health. Her husband is still on the ship and so far has tested negative. https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=1896470
So how many others have no idea they have this virus and are walking among us all over the world? How many others on that ship are infected and haven’t been tested? If they let them go after 14 days, they may still have the virus and pass it on exponentially. I’m just thinking out loud. Thoughts from others welcome.