So you think it is normal for the US to create war because Putin accepts the markets to function like they should. You think it is normal that a cartel set prices. You think the world must pay for American prosperity.
Well dream on…
Labcat,
Yes, I’ve seen exactly what you describe. People are desperately hanging on to “the flu is worse” narrative. Especially in the US. As soon as people get emotional, you know they are acting on feelings and beliefs, not research, data, and facts. Sadly, these people are a danger to those around them, the very people they care the most about. They are not taking precautions of any kind because they “believe” that all is well. Unfortunately, they will be proven very wrong, and people will be infected and some may die because of their immaturity and irresponsibility. It’s disgraceful.
That’s interesting. I copied the link to that video to my partner and his computer said it had malware in it.
Not at all Matties. You are misreading me. We just know from history what happens next. That is what the comment is all about. It’s not a recommendation. But we need to be ready and keep our minds open to what will unfold. The answer to excess supply, low demand and low prices is to destroy supply when there is no other options. Its just history and this repeats time and again. Cue the Houties missile attacks yada yada. Don’t you follow the Sunday night news? Nothing ever changes.
Canadian Prepper: “How to Filter Airborne Viruses and Survive! A Complete Guide” (video, 3/8/20) https://youtu.be/VnoF6FduMII “CP” is pretty legit, does his research, and uses most everything he sells which is high quality, not necessarily high priced. In this video, he reviews different types of respirators and goes over pros/cons.Great video Sparky. I learned quite a bit. Seems the difference between the 3M pancake filters and the oblong canisters, is the canisters have a layer of activated charcoal and a HEPA filter layer. He did do a good explanation on why even though the actual virus particles are in at 1.25 microns, and the N95 masks are rated just down to 3 microns, that the virus almost always piggie backs on a contaminate which will increase their size. Also that the N95 filters do more than just strict size filtration. They also depend on a variety of other methods, including the electo static which has been discussed re: salt solution soaking to increase mask efficiency. --- Now one thing I've been wondering about. That is does the virus die when its dried out or does it go inactive? I'd assumed that when you dry out the water droplets the virus' enzyme shell cracks open and exposes the virus itself to the air, killing it but I've come across a couple of references to the virus going dormant, which might put a nick in the idea of storing soiled masks for 9 days and then reuse them. Any ideas/opinions from the white coat brigade here?
Yes, people are still hanging on to the flu is worse - it kills much more. Hurry go get a flu shot you can die. See how they push that - yet most people do not get a fly shot - most people are not scared of the flu - as it normally does not kill 1:1000 - there is no disease with less fatality. in fact there is nothing you can do during the day that carries less risk. However, they only see this as how many they have documented it kills and not how many it can kill. I say to these people - you are the real fear mongers - trying to get people afraid of the flu… hurry go get your own medicine ( without any liability by the makers ) and put into a otherwise healthy person for a disease that does not kill. In fact the people who are most at risk from the flu are those that the shot is least effective. Reprehensible. to tell people the flu is worse. when it clearly does not cause issues for 999 out 1000 and even less complication rate… When was the last time you heard of flu leaving a nursing facility a waste land with 16 dead out 120 in one week? when?? are they nuts?
@Chrissie Sugden, I think the virus is coming from dtrammels server since he moved all the megathreads over there to his site temporarily. Maybe wait until they come back on this site before downloading them. I saw the same message and so did others. Right dtrammel? You need t clean up your machine since you are not doing anybody any favors with infected megathreads. Not to mention that this article was posted at ZH along with the links to your site which gives Chris a bad name don’t you think?
I won’t touch them anymore.
I am sure you have saved at least 1 life if not many more already… We need more health care workers as yourself.
At least this is a field i have a life long experience in so i do consider myself an expert. The fact that many people are reacting like “it’s just the flu” is very normal. It may be harsh, but you can’t fault them for that reaction. That is not a cultural thing, as we’ve seen it happen all over the planet. It is a natural reaction that some of us humans, actually most of us, have.
It’s called Normalcy Bias. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias
This is simply the way that the human brain works. Hell, if anything i’m about the most bearish person around it seems and even i noticed, in moments where my symptoms where away and the world was burning around me, i was looking at memes and seriously doubted all the effort i put it. Everything felt so… normal. Maybe normal would continue after all.
And that’s when my chest started burning again so i was like “NOPE still sick. Ow. Ow. Ow.”.
I’ve gone through tremendous trauma before, many times before in fact, before i could ever reach the point where i’m strong enough to say “I’m sane. The rest of the world has gone crazy” but that is a very hard point to reach. We are social animals, and to go against the grain is to isolate ones self. None of us here are really willing to do that, after all we congregated again after leaving the original group we recognized as wrong.
In fact it’s so strong, you’re posting on the internet about how stupid it is those people do that, so that you can have others agree and verify your opinion. If it was so obvious that it’s irresponsible you wouldn’t need to state so, now would you?
It’s not a personal attack. It’s just how we all are. I’m typing this too after all. Needing verification that the crash is happening even though literally every single chart is already telling you so is part of it too: the new normal is the crash and it must be verified.
Is it a good part of humanity? Sometimes. It made sure people didn’t go crazy when the media went ham on Ebola. Or the Swine flu. Or the Bird flu. Or SARS.It’s just that sometimes, there actually is an epic crisis, and only then does it not serve us well.
The way to “fix this” is simply Education. Good Education. Not the current standardized try to shove everybody into the same size box. But flexible education that also includes courses on Perspective (seeing things from another points of view) as well as Critical Thinking and Truth to ones Self (If the indicators say i’m right why do i feel the need to have that confirmed regardless?).
Alas. That’s for another time. Right now we’re going to have to work with what we got. A not very educated populace in my opinion. Capable of recalling a lot of information, sure, not very capable of using/manipulating it for previously unknown situations.
All you can do now is argue endlessly about how it’s not the flu. Try and save as many as you can. Remember as Chris says, Panic is not an binary state, an on/off switch. It’s a Spectrum. And the closer we get to total panic, the sooner people around you will listen. Maybe not to the desired level of preparedness in the beginning, but as things get worse, they will react sooner then everybody else - which is what you’re trying to achieve. In other words, the more people that panic gradually, the less problems we actually have dealing with it.
But. In the end, you cannot save everybody. That’ll become painfully obvious. And those people, if they live, will learn the hard way, as so many times in history before. Will we learn the lesson of Hubris this time?
The charts say Yes. For about, 20-30 years 
Sprott PHYS is green, Comex/GLD red. Why, what could possible cause this? (sarcasm off).
I am so sick of hearing that. (Especially from my adult children who are worried that I am over-reacting. Grr) Does anyone have a simple chart that compares the virus and flu that I could show people?
There is no virus on the other site. I just went there, and have been there for years. Your browser likely gave you a warning - the warning is wrong. He mentioned this up thread somewhere. Once I overroad this my browser no longer warns me, so I forgot it is there. There are other sites, Kunstler may still be this way for example. Has to do with Browser upgrades now expecting something that some older, smaller sites havent upgraded too.
Anyway, hit override and go there anyway, there is no virus !
Some software flag all sites that are not “fully https” as being potentially malware, not that they are. Rather than virus companies keeping updated lists of actual sites, they have begun just flagging every old site.
Once you have updated all your links in your site software, you still have to go out and buy a subscription from a company that then “verifies” you are who you are, which is just another fee to be on the internet. Something many small sites don’t do. I’ll see this week if I can get that fixed though.
I’ll see if I can get Chris to put the megathreads on PP here.
ADDED: I disabled the links. It might take a few hours though for servers to update this change for people clicking on PP though. Not much I can do there. Email into Adam with the files to see if they can host them here.
I know they try to implicate everything now from race, age, sex and more to who gets this virus. First, I think anyone with adequate exposure will get the virus - its a contagion… with the exclusion of 1:10000 natural immunity perhaps. As who can develop symptoms that are severe, that is a good question. And though it looks like elderly people are more at risk, it is likely. as with the flu, But make no mistake that someone young does not have to worry. and that the same elderly people “highrisk for flu” have to worry… I think healthy elderly people have to worry and everyone else has to worry too. What I think we have to stop looking at is, race, sex and smokers. Sex , more men than women? has anyone let us know the sex ratio in wuhan ? china? I think after the one-child policy, more men were born because that is what they wanted if they only have one child. but again, there is not a significant enough difference in infections, to say, I am woman , we dont get this. That is stupid, same with race now, we see others clearly get it. and we see other races die from it… at one ppoint people were saying only asians have died from this - that was dumb too. I have never seen other than age “and underlying illness be associated with the flu” except for h1n1, which people over 50 clearly had an infection in ther life time that seemed to impart some immunity. I actually believe this disease is exactly the same - ANd this same effect is in play. but backwards. instead of having a previous infection that imparts immunity, you have had a previous infection that imparts sensitivity. That is why babies with no immune system at all are not getting severely ill. Perhaps the other reason for a small ratio difference with men and woman is men were in the military, perhaps something went around then or was given in a vaccine that more military received than the general public… The only inference in the end of day here to me - is not really a difference in demographics - being susceptible but the thing that determines susceptibility with the flu… “previous exposures”
Desogames,
Denial of the facts and putting people at risk is still disgraceful. This can be applied to other behavior like high risk drug use putting your spouse at risk for disease.
And I don’t give a s*** about validation. Needing the approval of others is a recipe for unhappiness and insecurity.
Once you have your food and supplies set, please give some thought to your cash flow situation. Time may be limited to do any type of a cash out Refi to access any equity you may have sitting in a property. Closed on mine this morning and I will now sleep better knowing I can bail out my adult children and pay my employees (perhaps half pay?) if/while they are locked out of my office. Remember, real estate appraisers base their estimated values on closed sales, which are in the past, so basically on history. At this point the possible bleak future will likely not affect your appraised value. If we have a financial crash, property values are also going to take a hit, and therefore your appraised value will suffer, and in turn your equity and ability/amount to cash out. Please don’t just get a line of credit, these can be withdrawn/cancelled. Get the cash and break it up between several accounts at various banks. (instruct your closing attorney that you want your loan proceeds in the form of several smaller checks, not a single large check) Then take out small amounts of cash to have in hand from each. Remember, bank employees by law must report any suspicious activity, like withdrawing large amounts of cash, and/or numerous small withdraws in a row. (If you are unfamiliar with cash reporting requirements, please google it) It is always nice to have a cover story to chat about during your withdrawal if the teller gets nosy. “I finally found that good used riding mower I’ve always wanted, but the seller will only take cash”. Please don’t get just $100 dollar bills, some $100’s is Ok but get a mix of bills. I actually prefer my emergency cash fund in all $10’s and $20’s.
I believe you had the flu, it has hit schools hard this year. You also said you had a productive cough , again flu, not covid. and 3 weeks, doesnt seem quite long enough to be covid, more the like flu with lingering cough… Please be careful… you are still trying to avoid this. and yes its out there and has been out there.
I’ll still stick with my opinion of Saudi Arabia switching sides. It’s one thing to not get a cut from OPEC, but to immediately deeply discount oil AND announce a production increase? That’d be absolute budgetary suicide unless it was prepared for in advance. It’s an crazy strategy. Especially because they’re trying to bankrupt US shale. Not any other country – the US.
Every relationship counts both ways. The US is now an net exporter of oil. So it doesn’t need SA – and SA doesn’t have the US as a customer anymore.
It could just be to see if Russia’s bluffing (Russia may not be bluffing, but no harm paying a little bit to see) or a desperate attempt to balance the budget and keep MBS’ backside on the throne.
If Saudi has, or is really trying to, switch sides, then surely it has already done so? Pissing off the US before you have reached agreement with China - now that would be truly crazy! Personally, I think the Saudis might be too deeply in bed with the US MIC to switch sides in any case. And what would it mean for Saudi’s relationship with Iran? Or Israel? It’s not clear to me that such a switch is politically tenable for Saudi.
But if we assume for a moment that it is, or that MBS has convinced himself that it is (and desperate people can make bad decisions), then I think that means that Saudi and China planned this a while ago. It may also mean that China planned the virus too. In which case releasing it on its own territory - presumably calculating that it could withstand the fallout better than the US could - was a cunning plan to deter blame. And Russia would likely also have been involved at the planning stage and the oil shock just part two of the attack. And if this is the case there may be further moves planned - not sure what they would be though.
I still think it’s more likely that the virus happened and that folks are just reacting. My guess is Russia saw a chance to apply some real pressure to the US and likely wants the US to concede the European gas market and perhaps formally accept the partitioning of Ukraine. Saudi got caught in a vice and has to ramp up production to balance its budget. In this case the next move is down to the US - give Russia what it wants and the oil price goes back to normal…
Whatever’s really going on, the world needs to start ignoring all these lunatics and their nasty games of politics and war.
Rebel
From an ID conference in California #COVID19
3/8/2020
Notes from the front lines:
I attended the Infectious Disease Association of California (IDAC) Northern California Winter Symposium on Saturday 3/7. In attendance were physicians from Santa Clara, San Francisco and Orange Counties who had all seen and cared for COVID-19 patients, both returning travelers and community-acquired cases. Also present was the Chief of ID for Providence hospitals, who has 2 affected Seattle hospitals under his jurisdiction. Erin Epson, CDPH director of Hospital Acquired Infections, was also there to give updates on how CDPH and CDC are handling exposed health care workers, among other things. Below are some of the key take-aways from their experiences.
1. The most common presentation was one week prodrome of myaglias, malaise, cough, low grade fevers gradually leading to more severe trouble breathing in the second week of illness. It is an average of 8 days to development of dyspnea and average 9 days to onset of pneumonia/pneumonitis. It is not like Influenza, which has a classically sudden onset. Fever was not very prominent in several cases. The most consistently present lab finding was lymphopenia (with either leukocytosis or leukopenia). The most consistent radiographic finding was bilateral interstitial/ground glass infiltrates. Aside from that, the other markers (CRP, PCT) were not as consistent.
2. Co-infection rate with other respiratory viruses like Influenza or RSV is <=2%, interpret that to mean if you have a positive test for another respiratory virus, then you do not test for COVID-19. This is based on large dataset from China.
3. So far, there have been very few concurrent or subsequent bacterial infections, unlike Influenza where secondary bacterial infections are common and a large source of additional morbidity and mortality.
4. Patients with underlying cardiopulmonary disease seem to progress with variable rates to ARDS and acute respiratory failure requiring BiPAP then intubation. There may be a component of cardiomyopathy from direct viral infection as well. Intubation is considered “source control” equal to patient wearing a mask, greatly diminishing transmission risk. BiPAP is the opposite, and is an aerosol generating procedure and would require all going into the room to wear PAPRs.
5. To date, patients with severe disease are most all (excepting those whose families didn’t sign consent) getting Remdesivir from Gilead through compassionate use. However, the expectation is that avenue for getting the drug will likely close shortly. It will be expected that patients would have to enroll in either Gilead’s RCT (5 vs 10 days of Remdesivir) or the NIH’s “Adaptive” RCT (Remdesivir vs. Placebo). Others have tried Kaletra, but didn’t seem to be much benefit.
6. If our local MCHD lab ran out of test kits we could use Quest labs to test. Their test is 24-48 hour turn-around-time. Both Quest and ordering physician would be required to notify Public Health immediately with any positive results. Ordering physician would be responsible for coordinating with the Health Department regarding isolation. Presumably, this would only affect inpatients though since we have decided not to collect specimens ordered by outpatient physicians.
7. At facilities that had significant numbers of exposed healthcare workers they did allow those with low and moderate risk exposures to return to work well before 14 days. Only HCW with highest risk exposures were excluded for almost the full 14 days (I think 9 days). After return to work, all wore surgical masks while at work until the 14 days period expired. All had temperature check and interview with employee health prior to start of work, also only until the end of the 14 days. Obviously, only asymptomatic individuals were allowed back.
8. Symptom onset is between 2-9 days post-exposure with median of 5 days. This is from a very large Chinese cohort.
9. Patients can shed RNA from 1-4 weeks after symptom resolution, but it is unknown if the presence of RNA equals presence of infectious virus. For now, COVID-19 patients are “cleared” of isolation once they have 2 consecutive negative RNA tests collected >24 hours apart.
10. All suggested ramping up alternatives to face-to-face visits, tetemedicine, “car visits”, telephone consultation hotlines.
11. Sutter and other larger hospital systems are using a variety of alternative respiratory triage at the Emergency Departments.
12. Health Departments (CDPH and OCHD) state the Airborne Infection Isolation Room (AIIR) is the least important of all the suggested measures to reduce exposure. Contact and droplet isolation in a regular room is likely to be just as effective. One heavily affected hospital in San Jose area is placing all “undifferentiated pneumonia” patients not meeting criteria for COVID testing in contact+droplet isolation for 2-3 days while seeing how they respond to empiric treatment and awaiting additional results.
Feel free to share. All PUIs in *** so far have been negative.
Martha L. Blum, MD, PhD
Thanks to Ye olde Donald; you don’t even need a chart. Simple calculation will do.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1237027356314869761
37,000 deaths. The WHO states that there’s currently a 3.4% fatality rate. sites like https://covid19info.live/ support that. Though it will take a long time to know the true rate, but thanks to overwhelmed hospital systems it’s not unthinkable it’ll be worse. So then we just run that calculation in reverse.
If 37,000 is 3,4%, then 100% is ~1.1 million. So if 1.1 million people catch SARS-Cov-2, roughly 37,000 die.
the estimated influenza disease burden for last flu season was 35,5 million people. 3,4% of that is 1,2 million people dead.
And considering this is far more infectious then the flu… 35,5 million people (if we take no precautions as we would with the flu) is a very low ball number.