If this blows like it could and probably will, that last thing that anyone in their right mind will worry about is paying their bills or debt.
They engineered every last bit of this bs…It is up to us to finish it.
The latest Australian 60 Minutes news program covered coronavirus and featured Prof Gabriel Leung, Chair of Public Health Medicine at Hong Kong University. Chris has cited Prof Leung many times, for which I am very grateful.
It’s gratifying to see the show discuss so many of the points that Chris brings up in his videos, including speculating whether a hard quarantine period would be effective in a Western nation.
Episode entitled ‘World of Pain’
https://www.9now.com.au/60-minutes
Cheers,
Mr Pool
If you’re having trouble going straight to the multi-part video from the link above, try going here first https://www.9news.com.au/just-in and then click on the 60 Minutes link in the top header. Hopefully that may take you to the video and avoid the sign in process. ~ MP
Hello everyone. My bright red line was crossed this morning and Evie and I are now in self-isolation mode.
This is community level transmission in our neck of the woods. No travel history, no idea where this guy might have got it…means…here we go.
For us this means:
- Nobody coming into our house any more. I need my house to be a "green room." This is for my own mental health...I need a place of refuge which I know, for certain is clean. I can't have that niggling worry that maybe that last person in was a carrier...this is for my own mental health.
- All trips out, which will be few, will involve full PPE and decontamination on return home. This means clothes stripped off outside and left there until either time has passed or they have been dunked in bleach water.
- No more handshaking with anybody. Nobody closer than 6 feet. Social distancing works. Read the latest from Hong Kong where they have been doing this (in spades!) and now recording a huge decline in flu and other communicable diseases. It works, but it's awkward at first if your culture isn't used to it. Okay, so time to be awkward then.
- Complete awareness when out and about. In 'condition yellow" I will be observing other people. Is anybody coughing or seemingly ill? Extra wide berth. No getting caught in a crowd. No trains, no planes. Disposable gloves in my car to use before picking up a gas pump, or placing items in the shopping cart. Plenty of hand sanitizer with me at all times. Stray bottles of bleach and plastic garbage bags to put any outside items in for transport home. Leaving things outside in the sun for 9 days if possible before bringing them in.
Hi Myrto
I agree with you often growth rates appear higher due to “catch up” in testing for the virus. Typical pattern is lag (under testing) – catch up (expansive testing) – settled growth (continued exponential growth) – decline in growth rates (either due to saturation or invasive Wuhan style non-pharmaceutical-interventions ie. Lockdown). See table below with change in South Korea growth rates over time.
| South Korea | ||||
| Cases | Daily growth rate | Weekly growth rate per day | Cumulative growth rate per day since first case | |
| 22-Jan | 1 | |||
| 23-Jan | 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24-Jan | 2 | 100% | 41% | |
| 25-Jan | 2 | 0% | 26% | |
| 26-Jan | 3 | 50% | 32% | |
| 27-Jan | 4 | 33% | 32% | |
| 28-Jan | 4 | 0% | 26% | |
| 29-Jan | 4 | 0% | 22% | 22% |
| 30-Jan | 4 | 0% | 22% | 19% |
| 31-Jan | 11 | 175% | 28% | 31% |
| 1-Feb | 12 | 9% | 29% | 28% |
| 2-Feb | 15 | 25% | 26% | 28% |
| 3-Feb | 15 | 0% | 21% | 25% |
| 4-Feb | 16 | 7% | 22% | 24% |
| 5-Feb | 19 | 19% | 25% | 23% |
| 6-Feb | 23 | 21% | 28% | 23% |
| 7-Feb | 24 | 4% | 12% | 22% |
| 8-Feb | 24 | 0% | 10% | 21% |
| 9-Feb | 25 | 4% | 8% | 20% |
| 10-Feb | 27 | 8% | 9% | 19% |
| 11-Feb | 28 | 4% | 8% | 18% |
| 12-Feb | 28 | 0% | 6% | 17% |
| 13-Feb | 28 | 0% | 3% | 16% |
| 14-Feb | 28 | 0% | 2% | 16% |
| 15-Feb | 28 | 0% | 2% | 15% |
| 16-Feb | 29 | 4% | 2% | 14% |
| 17-Feb | 30 | 3% | 2% | 14% |
| 18-Feb | 31 | 3% | 1% | 14% |
| 19-Feb | 31 | 0% | 1% | 13% |
| 20-Feb | 104 | 235% | 21% | 17% |
| 21-Feb | 204 | 96% | 33% | 19% |
| 22-Feb | 433 | 112% | 48% | 22% |
| 23-Feb | 602 | 39% | 54% | 22% |
| 24-Feb | 833 | 38% | 61% | 23% |
| 25-Feb | 977 | 17% | 64% | 22% |
| 26-Feb | 1,261 | 29% | 70% | 23% |
| 27-Feb | 1,766 | 40% | 50% | 23% |
| 28-Feb | 2,337 | 32% | 42% | 23% |
| 29-Feb | 3,150 | 35% | 33% | 24% |
| 1-Mar | 3,736 | 19% | 30% | 23% |
| 2-Mar | 4,335 | 16% | 27% | 23% |
| 3-Mar | 5,186 | 20% | 27% | 23% |
| 4-Mar | 5,621 | 8% | 24% | 23% |
| 5-Mar | 6,088 | 8% | 19% | 22% |
| 6-Mar | 6,593 | 8% | 16% | 22% |
Good luck, Quercus bicolor!
As I type this on 8 March, there are two flights in the air from Milan to JFK, Alitalia 604 and Emirates 205, bringing in 500+ people from the center of the Italy hot spot. As far as I can tell, it is business as usual. Last report I read, there is no screening whatsoever going on at JFK. Has this changed in the last few days? BTW, for information about the current state of air travel, there is a useful site “flightaware.com”
https://www.sfgate.com/news/bayarea/article/Sunday-Morning-News-Roundup-15114715.php
The City of Gilroy is currently evaluating all city programs and public events to ensure compliance with the latest recommendations from the Santa Clara County Department of Public Health and the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, after firefighters treated a person Thursday who later tested positive for coronavirus, Gilroy police said Saturday.
The Gilroy firefighters, who have shown no coronavirus symptoms, are being allowed to return to work while being monitored on a daily basis for the next 14 days, police said.
Gilroy firefighters on Thursday went on a medical call for a resident experiencing chest pains. The patient was taken to Kaiser Hospital Santa Teresa in San Jose for treatment. It was there that the patient was later confirmed to have Novel coronavirus.
That patient as of Saturday was being treated according to Santa Clara County Department of Public Health protocol, police said.
First, to Chris, David, et.al: Godspeed to you as you live and work in closer (known) proximity to your local red-line cases. Please be careful! And please continue to share how you cope so those of us in infected areas can model your decisive responses when we cross our red lines too.
Someone with a more empirical background can weigh in on this scholarly paper from Australia National University’s Center for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. It projects economic impacts from seven pandemic scenarios—shocks to various business indicators and industries; drains on GDP, consumption, government expenditures, etc. The numbers look bad, real bad. The most modest pandemic scenario extrapolates over 15 million deaths worldwide (Table 9).
The policy recommendations in the conclusion, emphasizing strong strategic government response and cooperative global prioritizing of public health systems, seem unlikely to occur. So the report does nothing to dispel my ongoing belief that we are screwed. But note that the efficacy of bovine semen was not among this study’s criteria, so perhaps there is hope.
https://cdn.uc.assets.prezly.com/f608a96a-ca11-4a06-99ec-adb478629363/-/inline/no/
If this is all staged, planned and progressing on course, then you’ve got to hand it to TPTB, they know how to maintain control. Brandon Smith has said similar/same - verbatim I think.
But control to what? None of it sounds better.
Hmmm, maybe I answered my own question - perhaps only better for some than others might still be the goal of TPTB… - “in the valley of the blind, the one-eyed man is king” so to speak.
Yknow i realized with the news of the Saudi’s increasing production i didn’t describe all the reasons of Why the Saudis would do this. I mean, sure, Russia’s a big producer, and sure the US will collapse, but that’s a process of years while we have a real emergency now. Why start a war on top of a virus? (hang on to your seats this is another article length post, but i find the whole thing fascinating. And it helps me recover by just keeping busy ^_^)
Well the reason for that is, in my humble opinion, what is generally known as the Repo crisis. However I’ve recognized it as something else; the day that the US went bankrupt. Now this is a controversial, yet brave statement I’m sure, so let me fully explain my self. I’ll try to keep it a bit entertaining.
First; what is Repo exactly? Don’t know. Stay with me though this explanation will end up making a lot more sense then anything technical in the end. I’ve seen the chart, it’s all very complex but neither you nor i need to concern ourselves with it (AKA I’ve got better things to do then to waste energy understanding that mess). I’m a data driven guy sure but my focus isn’t entirely on economics (i can’t even do beyond basic algebra really) but far more on Human behavior. Which i find describes economics far better then math.
Since i’ve got aspergers i never know how humans feel at any given time or how i should convey the right feeling, causing me to just behave based on intelligence - mirroring what i see others do, figuring out the reason behind that behavior etc. If you don’t look at how i talk, but at what i say instead, we get along just fine. Or yknow, i act the part you expect (and yes, that is both as creepy and as sad as that sounds).
In any case. All you need to know is, Repo is the way it is because of Trust. In the case of Bonds, the longer dated it is the more trustworthy it is. This sounds weird, but look at it this way. Even if we have a full blown pandemic, economic collapse, dollar hyperinflation, depression and even a civil war on top of that… Do you think that’ll last longer then 30 years? I’m pretty darn good at prediction and even i say that’d be highly unlikely. In fact i’d be bullish on whatever came out of all of that because that is quite the fat trimming leaving tons of room for growth. And the US doesn’t need to have my money in 30 years; simply the ability to borrow money to cover their debt to me in 30 years. Buying a 30 year US bond is still a very safe bet in my opinion.
But 10 years? How about 2? Would you lend the US government money right now for 6 months, knowing how they’re handling the epidemic?
Well. Nothing in life is black and white. I’ve mentioned the first rule of trading “to sell, you need a buy. To buy, you need a sell”. Well, the second rule is “Every man has his price”. Note that that price does not have to be monetary; but we can probably find a monetary expression of it somehow. After all, money is nothing more then an representation of an underlying value.
In this case, i would lend to the US for 6 months… but not at current rates. The Risk is too high. Liz Specht’s run of the numbers is spot on, by then there will be a full blown epidemic raging on. I am not at all sure the US will pay me back because anything is on the table. So to compensate me for that Risk i’m taking, i want to see a high Yield.
Now, the reason Yields are plummeting right now is because of the >traditional< safe having status of the US treasuries. But tradition is only tradition until it is not; generally changing after some unforeseen event exposing the inadequacies of said tradition. But if we remember September 2019… Nothing was going on really.
Sure, the market had dropped in December 2018… but that was 9 months ago. The Fed was already easing conditions, central banks around the world where still in easy mode. The Fed put was still very much in place. A bit of EM trouble (emerging markets) but there’s always EM trouble. I think bankers take a shot every time Argentine goes bankrupt these days.
and then suddenly, the shortest term lending facility there is, the 1 day repurchase agreement, blew up. In other words, taking rule 2 into account, nobody trusted anybody to pay back anything tomorrow unless there was a 10% interest on it. And that’s in a day, had nobody intervened, it would’ve gone exponential within a week.
Now of course, there’s lenders and borrowers in the Repo markets. Generally speaking, there’s the Fed (non active in repo before the repo crisis, but needs a mention), big banks with cash (cause of course) on the lending side and levered up to the hilt hedge funds on the other side.
You might’ve heard or read about JP morgan “engineering” the repo crisis. Well, what’s meant by that is JPM (others as well, but Jamie Dimon is simply the most ruthless so he’s first) has slowly but steadily been withdrawing liquidity from the repo market for the last year. And it’s easy to blame them because they’re usually involved anyway, like his reputation can get any worse. What this means is, there’s been less and less money for more and more takers.
Now, for once, i believe the big banks to be not at fault here. After all it’s easy to hide truth in a sea of lies where nobody will look for it. The problem isn’t with the repo market, it’s with the Treasury (bond) market. Because something did happen longer before the market decline in december; Trump’s tax cuts. Don’t misunderstand, i’m not against tax cuts in general, but i’m merely pointing at it’s effect: A big increase in the deficit.
Deficits need to be funded. But there’s another thing that happened: The Trade War with China. Which at no point during 2018 had any indication of getting better. Logically, the Chinese stopped buying treasuries, not only officially but through secondary dealers (like Belgium) as well. The Japanese stepped in for a while but they are beyond bankrupt at this point and in some sort of shadow realm. So they’re of no use.
Europe has it’s own sovereign debt crisis that was never solved; so who does that leave? Russia? HAH.
It leaves Domestic buyers. Pension funds and institutionalized investors. Just a problem with those 2: Pension funds may be obligated to buy treasuries but they are absolutely bleeeeeeding money because of the low rates. Their calculations include very high returns - yearly returns of 7% or higher in some cases - so to buy a 10 year on a 2.5% rate is ludicrous. And do you think institutionalized investors are going to buy bonds at 2,5% when the S&P goes up by 10%+ each year? When the Fed has their backs?
The big banks are nothing but institutionalized investors… however, they are also beholden to the Fed. And if the Fed says buy you buy. Regardless, as i’ve stated. 30 year treasuries still aren’t bad investments. 10 years might be at these rates. But hey; if the Fed wants you to buy you buy.
But how are you going to make money off of this? Remember; you’re Jamie Dimon and you don’t give a fuuuuuuuuck. So are you going to use your excess reserves parked at the Fed that you’re going to need pretty soon because even an idiot can see this writing on the wall? NAH.
I’ma take it from the repo market instead; force QE4 and ride the stock price up with my own shares and make millions! WHABAM!. (JPM stock went up 30% from the repo crisis to the corona highs).
So the treasury market stayed stable while the repo market imploded sight unseen. Jay powell (LOL i just mistyped that as “jaw powell”. I’m keeping that one because of his damn jawboning but not being able to do shit otherwise) is a completely Reactionary fed chairman. If you will, a Weak King. JPM knows this. JPM forced his hand.
However. There’s a Fiat lining to all of this (was looking for "what’s the opposite of a Silver lining? :D). 2 actually:
- If the Treasury market was healthy, the banks wouldn’t need to draw on any repo cash OR excess reserve. The Collateral market would take care of things easy.
- If the Repo market was healthy, the banks withdrawing some liquidity shouldn’t have to affect it that much. Rates should slowly rise, causing others to step in. You know, supply and demand.
So why is this the case? Why did it just blow the hell up? Well because of the Fed Put.
Nobody wants to buy treasuries at these rates. Everybody also is very much aware of this. Rates have been too low for too long. To go full Ferengi; There’s no profit in it. But if Rates go up, the chart i’ve posted before (and that is also why it’s the only chart that matters) Really goes exponential. As the Fed has become beholden to the politicians and markets (because again, weak king) not to mention their continued ability to print money is more or less based on the dollar surviving, they do not dare let a normalization of rates happen. They will print whatever they need to print to keep rates low.
If the banks risk any of the real cash reserves they have, they have nothing left for the coming collapse of the bond market. First there’s a deflationary crash, then there’s hyperinflation through printing. You buy low and sell high (or in this case, buy at the bottom and sell in whatever new currency we end up with).
Remember i’m just a guy on the internet. I’m incredibly smart sure but there’s plenty of just as smart people working for these banks having access to far more accurate data (doesn’t mean i’m wrong, it means they’re steps ahead of me and even i realize things after the fact - i did not see the repo crisis coming while they built it).
The conclusion is simple: Everybody, without saying, agrees, that the US market is broken beyond repair. FUBAR. If there’s ever any profits to be made, it all needs to come the fuck down and start the fuck over. The only people who don’t want to believe this are the people who’s salary depends on believing the party is still going. It’s not even a question of the US consumer/tax payer believing it, they won’t be notified until the collapse is already happening.
Remember the panic buying you’re seeing now. That’ll happen because of financial reasons as well. But it won’t happen until 10% a month inflation, just like it didn’t happen with the virus until the cases already went exponential. At that point it’ll really be “too late” if you compare the wealth of those people at that time compared to my wealth when i switched from fiat to physical in December 2019. Even with the recent decline off highs - i’m still at a profit remarkably enough (i’m counting if i’d buy now at spot - because you always pay a commission for physical something people also forget). while buying it i expected a 25% decline in current prices which i was more then willing to accept just to be in the market when prices bounced, so that i’m still at a profit is a pleasant surprise.
So; if there’s profits to be made, the Fed Put must Die. Since the Fed won’t let the Put die until it dies, the Fed must die. How to kill a Fed? Kill the Bond market. That is the simple conclusion. With rates going negative soon (meaning Cash is the preferred option; gee, i wonder why the banks didn’t use their excess reserves) the Fed will have lost all control of what it can do except print more money. Which the banks will happily take. (Small mention at this point: The virus just accelerated what would’ve happened in April anyway with the Repo Tapering by a month or 2. It has changed virtually nothing except presented even more opportunity).
Seems weird doesn’t it? No, they’ll spend it all on assets. They won’t loan out a bit of it. Why? Well because I’m Jamie Dimon bitch Fuck you. If i can match the economic deflation due to the corona crisis with spending the hyperinflation money on assets; i can slow the whole thing down while accumulating assets!
Why would i ever do such a thing? Cause of the bottom. There will be a bottom to the market. There’s always a bottom. The trick is finding it. But that’s from a traditional point of view, not from a societal collapse point of view, a hyperinflation point of view. Just look at Venezuela; that took time too. A collapse bottom doesn’t need to be found; you only need to prepare for the bounce (AKA hold as much as you can except cash and bonds during hyperinflation).
Statistically it’s genius because in GDP terms, you will see a slow decline. Because no way the fed can print itself out of a societal collapse. However; the real working man on the streets will feel it in price inflation. How could that possibly happen? Oh simple math will suffice:
$100 dollar economy. $10 dollar wage. $1 dollar bread.
$50 dollar economy. $5 dollar wage. $0.55 dollar bread.
50% GDP deflation. 50% wage deflation. 45% price deflation.
Your bread costs have gone up as a total percentage of wage (11% vs 10% before) while real prices have done nothing but drop.
Rule 3 of trading: “In a bull market, you make money by making more then the other guy. In a bear market, you make money by losing less money then the other guy”.
From a collapse point of view; the bottom is the point Inflation takes hold. The moment faith in the system (or growth) is restored is also the moment everybody realizes how much money everybody really has (price discovery and normalization) and prices start going up again. Real quick. I mean, REAL real quick. At that point the stupid idiots will try and grab all assets they can - Assets i, Jamie Dimon, already own and am unwilling to sell driving up price even further. Multiply hyperinflation with supply and demand.
Why would i sell assets when i know the US will collapse and only the legality of who owns what remains? Is it any surprise that JPM bought out Bear Sterns and is now one of the the largest holders of Physical Silver in the world? While the silver/gold ratio nears 100 and everybody is dog piling into gold? Isn’t that a really weird thing to have still 12 years after the takeover if it’s such a bad asset to have? (I swear to god, in Juli 2008 when banks started being taken over by other banks for pennies on the dollar, my very first instinct was “this is a power play” by the big banks. The whole crisis. Just a way to cut the top 10 banks in the US down to the top 5 banks in the US to increase their market share. But i think it got a bit too out of hand for that in the end).
That means they kept all of it during the 2011-2012 silver price spike where prices quintupled off the lows, and tripled off the point they bought bear sterns. They might’ve sold silver futures, sure. But not the physical stuff. Isn’t that just strange? At such extreme valuations that the price is now, even after all the termoil of 2020, still at only 1/3rd the post-2000 high, they kept it?
Oh at this point i think it’s also nice to remind everybody that The Federal Reserve is neither federal nor do they have any reserve. They’re a private entity with private shareholders who are being paid dividends off the interest the US government pays the Fed for the money the US government has loaned from the Fed, all made by paper backed by nothing.
In theory, central banks can’t go bankrupt as they’re backed by the living breathing populace of the country it’s from. This is true, the worth of a central bank will never be 0. The Fed isn’t a central bank, it’s a private bank with a license to print money. That license could just as well be revoked and given to another bank. Because why not? It’s just a law that says “You are allowed to print money, we will borrow it off you, and we pay it back with interest”.
Somehow nobody ever really makes that distinction. The Fed is backed by nothing. A law, which is in itself again a piece of paper. Laws can change. The Constitution even changed, remember slavery? What changes if that ability to print money is returned to the US government? Absolutely nothing at this point. The US government is backed by the US citizens, simply because even if politicians change, there will always be a government for the people on the landmass of Northern America, regardless of what they call themselves. If the Federal reserve was owned by the government it could truely be called a central bank. But it’s not.
The Fed has served it’s purpose, now it is to be disposed of and a new Fed to take over so the cycle can begin anew. The shareholders stay out of the line of fire, the rich get richer, the poor have their central bank and politicians to lynch.
And with the current polarization happening i would not be surprised to learn JPM has started investing in weapons companies. Though i doubt that’ll ever be made public
Trump did just spend $2 trillion on the military which is worry some. Like the old bullets weren’t deadly enough already. How about actually winning against a couple of farmers with AKs first?
JPM simply figured out that the end was nigh. And they decided, that if it’s to start, if it starts with them they stand to lose the least. Rule 3 of trading. There was actually a movie made about this kinda fact, though based on the 2008 crisis it applies here as well: Margin Call with Kevin Spacey from 2011 (good movie, by the by). Just imagine that movie playing out over a stretch of 24 months instead of ~24 hours.
September 16th was simply the moment the frog jumped from the water coming to a boil because it got too hot. Press F on that urban legend.
As Sven Henrich is fond of saying, if everything is healthy, have the Fed stop all repo operations for a week, see what happens. See if rates stay the same. I think we all know the answer to that rhetorical question.
There is a simple question to extend from that fact: If the Fed stops expanding it’s balance sheet completely, so no repo or QE4 (or Twist or anything like that), would there still be buyers for treasuries at current rates?
Since the 16th of september 2019, the answer to that question has become No. And that is why it’s the day the US went bankrupt. The bankruptcy of nations doesn’t happen overnight. And those of reserve currency nations happen even slower. Just look at Lebanon: They just defaulted for the first time in their nation’s history. But getting there was a long long road involving bloody protests and capital controls (they didn’t even default during their civil war).
Those will come to the US as well (the riots that is). Just as sure as the virus >was< coming and now >is< here. I’ve been paying attention to this virus even longer then Chris has because as soon as zero hedge reported on it, i saw “Asymptomatic spread”, a Chinese media that said “Everything will be fine” combined with social media posts of people dropping dead in the streets. That was all the indication i needed to drop everything i was doing and commit 100% of my time to looking at the virus (as well as the economic implications) by tracking all news i could possibly find (though i didn’t tell my friends until i had Chris’s first video to link them. Not having a degree being weighted so heavily against you regardless of the reasoning of your arguements is criminal too).
Compare that to economics which i’ve been reading about since september 2008 (so i’ve been reading about economics even longer then Zerohedge exists, though they make my job a heck of alot easier by existing) because i just could not imagine all those smart people trading all day looking at charts all day could ever not see this coming. Surely, something that big must’ve been noticeable before hand, right?
As we’re now rapidly discovering, no, nobody noticed it before hand. A couple of guys did, partially through luck, partially through hard work. One guy actually saw it by connecting the dots (funnily also self diagnosed with Aspergers) and he got a movie about it. Consider this my pitch Hollywood
Aaaaaanyway. That’s how it hooks into what Saudi Arabia and Russia have been doing, and why destroying OPEC was ever even an option for Saudi Arabia in the first place. They lend their existence to the Petro-dollar, but that sword cut both ways: If the US goes bankrupt, they don’t have any more dollars to give for ye olde petro now can they?
On top of that the US has invested heavily into shale, both from a money perspective but very much from a national security perspective too. Should the US go to war, they no longer need Saudi Arabia. They can just nationalize the bakken shale if they really have to (remember, everything is fair in love and war. That might as well be trading rule #4).
Which also means the US could go to war with Saudi Arabia without their armor running dry. The Saudis also being the side that’s been losing the middle east to the Russians/Chinese/Iranians. The side filled with backdoor riddled US military hardware. The side that is a small minority religiously speaking. And would never have come to power where it not for the Petrodollar.
Which might stand a chance to survive if either: - The US comes back to the table and pays mucho money in subsidies so the royals don’t explode under their debt commitments/budget deficit, and they continue to exist.
- They switch sides like the Italians at the end of world war 2 (consider this the end of “Pax Americana”) and mitigate the fallout by still having trading partners willing to protect them at the end of all this. It won’t be the Russians. So they’re aiming for the Chinese.
That last makes sense if you consider the regime in Iran is veeeeeery wobbly. First their top icon gets killed. Then they botch the counter (the strikes where well targeted, last i heard 106 servicemen ended up with “headaches”) by taking down that commercial airliner, then they botch the response to that by lying instead of instantly blaming it on the situation the US caused, THEN they botch this whole virus fiasco by getting even themselves infected. It wouldn’t surprise me if one day the ayatollah is simply gone; caught a plane ride outta the country (or dead in a ditch). Honestly if i was him right now i would get the fuck out. The US will have bigger problems to worry about then done striking him. Even if there’s a regime change Iran’s economy has taken such a hit from sanctions and the virus that it’s game over for them for quite a while.
So if China has to deal with that, OR, a willing vassal…
In any case. We’ll have to see how everybody plays it. Those are the cards on the table right now. The US is broke. The Russians smell blood in the water. The Sauds have jumped for the lifeboats right away, the rest of OPEC is reeling and will take a while to decide. China is waiting out the virus but when they restart they will need oil. Lowest cost+a hassle free premium gets to set up the supply lines; it’s that simple. Africa’s indebted to China (literally) so no contest there, while China is a big consumer now of South American Agriculture; with thanks to the trade wars, and will not abandon it for an ill conceived trade deal that never going to be honored any way.
Because Trump doesn’t honor deals, that is his WHOLE shtick of his presidency, he’s broken up every deal the US had to make a new “better” ones. That’s not a slight against Trump, his campaign his choice of doing politics, but it is history.
And that’s the whole story really. It will take a while (years) before historians realize that is what has transpired. From this point onwards the “bankruptcy infection” will just spread from the short end of the curve to the long end (stopping at the 10 year most likely, the 30 year might well become inverted for reasons mentioned above). Currently it is masked by the severe panic buying and “fleeing into traditional” safe havens. That entire thing gets to go in quotes because Silver is down from it’s peak on the 24th of january by -10% so i question the whole fleeing part. But i’ve posted about the ease of manipulating precious metals before.
At some point we’re either going to A. hit a bottom and bounce to inflation or B. go so deep negative that everybody will be scrambling for cash, causing another liquidity crisis. Either one forces interest rates up again out of their own accord and then there’s nothing the Fed can do while the dollar hyper inflates. Even worse, with jay powell at the helm, they will raise interest rates, but only after the market has already raised them for him. As a reactive chair, he’ll be laughed out of the room.
They’re going to need to find a start date for the madness. The moment the end started. While there are many good corrections and events to choose from, to me, the moment the starter pistol went off was the 16th of september 2019.
The end date though? That is anybodies guess. I’m no where near that good yet
EDIT: Goddamn this issue is SO complex even this long a post isn’t nearly long enough. Just to emphasise the beginning again, why trust matters: The real world value counterpart to Fiat money is Faith - faith in the currency. That faith is built upon Trust - Trust that the US will pay back it’s debts. September 16th (and the Fed’s reaction to it more importantly) showed that trust is no longer well placed. Not misplaced (the moment that happens it’s a default), but not solid either. It’s all interconnected is what i’m saying
Thank you for all the invaluable data and incites we can use to think with and act on. Peak Prosperity staff and members, thank you for making PP so very resourceful.
From Albuquerque
Sparky1, when prepping makes Town & Country magazine, high society’s genteel apologist for having allll that money, you know it is not only mainstream, but chic at last. And every grande dame worth her baubles knows one must be “more sophisticated than a pantry full of Spam.”
https://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/a30857654/judy-doomsday-survival-kit/
A company called Judy can outfit you and the little scions to hit the road, with a brilliant orange bug-out bag visible from outer space. It’s “carefully curated by disaster prep experts,” so there. To be fair, emergency planning guides ostensibly calibrated to your zip code have some merit for newcomers. I’m just kicking myself that I didn’t think of this 10 years ago. I could afford an orange bunker by now!
https://readyjudy.com/
By Carol Brown.
Reports suggest some people test negative up to six times even though they are infected with the virus, according to the BBC and Chinese media. Such was the case with Dr. Li Wenliang, the ophthalmologist who first identified the outbreak and was reprimanded by Chinese authorities when he tried to warn others.
Dr. Wenliang developed a cough and fever after unknowingly treating an infected patient. He was hospitalized, testing negative for coronavirus several times before eventually receiving a positive result. On Jan. 30 the doctor posted: “Today nucleic acid testing came back with a positive result, the dust has settled, finally diagnosed,” according to the BBC. Dr. Wenliang passed away on February 7 in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.
False-negative test results…cause several problems. Patients may be turned away from hospitals and medical facilities when they require care. They may infect others…Patients’ conditions may also worsen without treatment.
When faced with a highly infectious, potentially deadly pathogen, even a small number of false negatives can have a potentially serious and widespread impact on the larger population.
Read more: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/03/coronavirus_one_test_may_be_insufficient.html#ixzz6G7VBQpHM
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook
Hi David,
What is the URL of your site?
Thanks.
JM
You are a blessing thank you for everything. Yes, it is going to be awkward, how to coordinate the glove thing between town stops. For me, easiest is to stay home. “No Visitors” and “No Trespassing” signs, and locked front gate.
Blackeagle, as a long, long time webmaster, I’m sensitive to the perception of posting your website to another person’s website. For a small one like mine, posting here can be seen to be trying to piggie back off of the amazing work done here by Chris and Adam to get traffic to mine.
Its a small sort of poor people’s advice on how to live off grid and prepare for the coming long descent of our current global connected civilization, into something more local and personal. Nothing like this site for the depth of financial data. More ways to garden, back to nature and live frugal. Though I’ve been running it for a decade, and its based on a well known author’s book.
The only reason I mentioned it, was the current problem the software here at PP has, which when you are active in the forum, it limits the amount of posts and their sizes. I can either post just once a day (if I’m lucky), or just put things on my site and link. Second option means I get the info out, though I’m gonna hate to see my bandwidth bill this month.
Also being a non techie, I have a glitch in my site software (Durpal). The theme I’m using has one line of text font the creator forgot to type “https” instead of “http”. There has been a push to go https, since its more secure, though it requires you buy a certificate to say you are you. I just haven’t had the time to correct that. Google hates that, so they sometimes flag my site if you visit it as unsecure (aka BAD!).
I need to take a day or two next week to get back and update it, I’ve been working here alot (serious understatement), lol, and neglecting my readership there.
I’ll send you a PM with a link.
OliveOilguy, I’ve pretty much given up on the whole “official testing” thing.
I understand their limits, the virus manifests first in the deep lungs and so throat or nose swabs just doesn’t pick it up until the virus is all over your body. Of course by then, you’ve been shedding virus particles for a week or more.
I’m going to some simple criteria.
If I start having dry deep chest coughs then I have it. A bit of a problem because my allergies produce a scratchy throat and coughs. I live on cough drops sometime. Gotta love Spring as things get warm. Though when I have a cold/flu I get heavy mucus, allergies not so much. If I start getting some white/yellow mucus coughed up in the shower then I’m doubly gonna worry.
I haven’t yet, but at first sign of problems, I’m going to start documenting my temperature and blood oxygen levels (have a oximeter), probably 3-4 times a day. If I get a fever above 100F or a drop in O2 levels, I’m going to do some serious herbal/supplement additions to my current prophylactic regime. I have little faith that the hospitals will be available then, for anything other than infections sinkholes, if not pathways to a big stadium of public quarantine.
Now that we have a case in St Louis, I’m assuming everyone is a asymptomatic carrier, especially those with a cough and will go out at late/early hours, practice social distancing and limit my trips out. The case is from a trip to Italy, but I’m sure she’s spread it to some unknown side sources, so I expect “community spread” within a week to be announced here.
I’m 62 but in good health. No underlying conditions, still I’m in that slice of the population it will hit hard.
Maybe I can get off my a$$ and get back to writing some fiction, like I was doing. I have a bite from a publisher on a climate fiction/private investigator story set in St Louis of 2055 that might be a series.
We’ll see.
I always have my stock of bovine semen to fall back on (late night joke, if you don’t get it, look up thread, lmao.)
Going to go take a nap now. Remember sleep is a critical factor in keeping you healthy and super charging your immune system.
While watching the news, my eyes almost popped out of my head: people “escaping” the quarantine zone???
So sad, so sad. However while listening to interviews I realized the following: many older people in Italy live with their children. Could this be an extra factor? We know the italian honey badger virus is very infectious, and elderly people have more severe symptoms.
I’m glad in some ways, that my father, who in his last days was in such a care facility, has passed. I’d be very worried if he was still there.
This nursing home is at the center of Washington’s coronavirus. Here’s what one first responder saw there
Some Life Care Center residents have gone from no symptoms to acute symptoms within an hour, Killian said."We've had patients die relatively quickly under those circumstances," he said.
All this joking about stocking up on bovine semen but if I didn’t have a good stock of it and supplies become scarce I wouldn’t be able to get my mama cows pregnant in the fall and around 40 families would lose their source of healthy beef!!! No one would be laughing then! 