In our last video, we predicted that we’ll know within the next 3-5 weeks if the loosening of state lockdowns and rash of nationwide protests will result in an increase in covid-19 cases.
Well…we may not have to wait that long.
Over 20 US states are already reporting rising coronavirus cases. How much higher things will surge from here remains unknown, but you can be certain will be monitoring closely.
Are we just entering the next verse of the hammer and the dance, the ongoing back-and-forth process of loosening defenses until cases rise, and then tightening them again until cases start falling once more? Quite possibly.
We realize this is unwelcome news to a populace with coronavirus fatigue. Millions of household that have been under forced lockdown for the past several months just want this to be over. Especially with the drop in perceived risk and the arrival of summer weather.
But what we want doesn’t really matter here. As this virus has told us from the start: “Honey Badger don’t care!”:
The tribe is suiting up! We’ve seen tremendous response now that our RESILIENCE shirt production partner is finally back in action.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/no-new-covid-19-cases-reported-after-infected-hair-stylists-n1230346
It’s so frustrating that the most promising, cheap method of getting us back to “normal” is completely rejected by large proportions of the population.
Here in Missouri, very, very few people in my county are wearing them or bothering to practice social distancing. They want it to be “over,” so they’ve decided to act like it is.
The other day in one of your videos there were some possible reasons given for what appears to be an improved mortality rate…improved treatments, virus mutation, etc. I wonder if the lower inoculum theory upon original infection is playing a role. It’s unclear how many people are actually wearing masks, but if people are wearing more masks on average then people would be theoretically getting infected with lower inoculums. Lower inoculums give the immune system a head start versus getting over run with a billion virus particles all at once. Thus, one would think the mortality rate would be improved to some degree.
Hi Chris,
While you do provide some explanations about the high surge of cases in Brazil, I had thought that the country would be actually your irrefutable proof that hydrochloroquine works since they (at least) claimed they were going to continue using it widely. Can you find any data around that?
I almost never post but have been following all the info that you’ve been providing over the years and just want to say thank you for the incredible work that you (and Adam) are doing. Although I’ve expected a pandemic to take care of (some of) our overpopulation overshoot for many years, and have wondered with each of the recent ones (SARS, MERS) as well as this one if this was “it”, I admit I thought you were maybe overreacting at the beginning of this pandemic. Boy was I wrong!
I’m lucky to live in BC where we seem to have the situation under control (until now - may it last), good luck to everybody living in areas that are not doing so well. Remember to wear a mask!!
Moderna (Gates heavily supported) is in the final COVID vaccine trials using 30 thousand test subjects in Brazil. Some news reports cited they could not test in the UK as there were “not enough sick people there”? Event 201 used Brazil as the case study. The patent for some coronavirus vaccines exist from Jan 2020, not sure what that is all about. Something smells fishy to me.
I think the right question to ask is the death rate. No country is using HCQ as prophylactic, at least not outside of some like India using it for front line workers. The question then becomes one of mortality. Here then is a view that would suggest Brazil is handling things better thank France or Italy did; https://twitter.com/niro60487270/status/1270759242538967040/photo/2
You know what double-blind test I’d like to design? A correlation between attitudes and comprehension of mask functioning with standard IQ measures, cleverly veiled of course, as we live in such easily triggered times. P= .05 for sure!
H.L. Mencken did not say, exactly “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public,” but it is a good condensation of what he wrote. Me, I get lost in the double negative, so maybe I’ve been hanging out on the frontiers of Covid awareness just a little too long, and lost a few points myself.
Run, Forrest, run!
Chris,
I wanted to thank you for mentioning in this video that there is still a lot of confusion about how long this lasts on surfaces, along with the reminder to continue treating it with respect. I am certainly experiencing quarantine fatigue, right along with the rest of us, but I am also very aware of the strong possibility of a significant up-tick several weeks from now after all the protests.
Thanks again for all you and Adam do- keeping us informed and safe. Hope you have a good weekend.
“From the beginning, when we were hearing what was going on in China, I was, as a doctor, listening very carefully to how my colleagues were reacting, and how we should treat these people. One of my specialities is treating infectious diseases. And I also have some good contacts. We have groups of doctors who discuss (COVID-19 treatments). But it was quite unusual that this topic of how to treat this viral infection was absent in the whole media discussion. It was all about having masks and keeping (social distance) and the lockdown. But we were getting a message from the World Health Organization that there is no treatment. And that is not at all a correct message. It is certainly not a correct message to be given from a doctor…It’s very important to be searching for the treatments that work."
The folks here in Texas! Man, I don’t get it! At a supermarket today there were perhaps one in ten, maybe one in five, customers wearing masks. All the employees were wearing them.
I thanked one of the workers for wearing a mask all day long and we spoke for a few minutes. She told me that a friend of hers had to go to an urgent care doc for some problem. The doc confided to her that he had seen eight sick people that day (Monday, June 8) and tested them for Covid-19. Sixof the eight were positive for the virus and he sent them to the hospital. He told her to wear a mask everywhere she went.
Six out of eight at a little urgent care place in Lufkin, Texas.
Most people here are acting as if everything is normal, as if there is nothing to fear, as if it’s all been a mistake to do social distancing and in any way allow the threat of a virus impinge on their lifestyle.
I guess we’ll see in the near future, but I’m not hopeful for a good outcome here.
I was talking about covid fatigue about 3 topics ago. It is definitely an issue. Its hard to continue to practice all this - its not a normal process that we were raised with. We need to stay diligent. It seems people dont get it still, went shopping today, people still without masks. they must think and believe the WHO and CDC . you cant get from food and objects. Like no one else was in the store… I heard someone coughing ( really bad cough - thankfully about 2-3 isles away. BUT where they wearing a mask? how do you go to the store sick without mask… Store said curb side pick up at entrance … NO excuses anymore. People do not get the damage this causes people who do not die… THANK YOU Mainstream Media and Mainstream Medical Authorities ( oxymoron. ) We will end up with a ton medically incompetent and disabled people… likes its not bad enough now… Who will pay for this ? like medical costs in US are affordable now?
Daddy-O, so that doctor tested 8 people and got results before seeing someone else in the same shift? That’s quick testing; all of the tests here in New Zealand seem to take up to 24 hours to process.
I’m back working on the casino floor again. I don’t really have a choice, but my co-morbids sure wish I did. Eight hours in a N95 is no bueno, I salute you health care people who have been doing it for months now. I definitely do not want to drag this Badger home with me, so I am doing the strip in the garage protocols. I am also using hand sanitizer every time I go into a different room at work, or touch anything in a common area. I went through a 4 oz. bottle today. I keep remembering watching the donning/doffing protocol videos where they stop and use hand sanitizer after every step. I need to start buying it by the gallon . I am also really starting to identify with the TV show character “Monk” now. Thanks for reminding us to keep our guard up, when so many others are letting them down.
I do not think those 8 patients at the urgent care were tested… I believe, the OP said that the doctor clinically diagnosed 6/8 as serious enough to be positive and be checked at the ER at the hospital.
So in the following chart, Brazil is in green/red, and US is in blue/black (cases vs deaths).
There certainly seems to be a big thing that happened in the past month, starting mid-May. In the US, deaths really started to diverge from cases - Brazil too, at roughly the same time.
Now, Brazil’s deaths (red, left axis) have started to noticeably flatten, while cases (green, right axis) shoot higher. In the US, cases (blue) seem to be slowly turning back up, while deaths (black) continue to decline sharply. Two weeks ago deaths were 1000 per day in the US. Now, 798, while case counts are roughly the same. I call that the case-death gap. Lines used to move together. Now there is a very noticeable gap.
Did you notice that that this gap started to happen at almost exactly the same time, in two very different countries, with two very different case trajectories, medical systems, etc?
Theories:
we do a better job protecting the vulnerable
Whatever theory is correct, and maybe its all of them, things are - by the numbers - getting safer by the day in the US. When viewed nationwide. Same thing in Brazil.
Likewise, there are two things to consider here:
the national policy response; what should we as a nation do?
our own personal response; what should we, individually, do?
These two things should not be conflated. Some of us will, most likely, not be greatly affected by an infection. Others of us have a much higher chance of death. For that second group, the longer we can put off getting infected, the better our personal chances of survival will be. That’s what the chart above says. Deaths are dropping w.r.t cases as time passes.
As we go about life, we might consider the following: Not All Situations Have The Same Risk. A subway, a bus, singing in the choir = infinitely higher risk than, say, a warm, humid, breezy day at the beach. I definitely want to wear a mask in high risk situations. I find wearing a mask in very-low-risk situations tedious. Being on guard 24/7 is wearing. You might find it all easier to bear if you only “suit up” when you believe your risk to be relatively high.
So I’d suggest: “wear a mask” ()
() In high risk situations.
Sweden is the centre of attraction but lots of comparisons in other countries and lots of myths busted. The most obvious potential error is the equating of stock markets with the anticipated health of the economy, but the rest is good. Coronavirus: should we aim for herd immunity like Sweden?
Might be time for another podcast with a virologist. I recommend this one. I think he pretty much gets it.
" 2. Even a vaccine that works likely won’t solve the pandemic.
Haseltine also wants citizens to appreciate this bit of wisdom: a vaccine will not likely end this pandemic for several reasons.
For starters the most affected population, people over the age of 60, are the most difficult population to develop vaccines for. As the immune system ages, the effectiveness and duration of vaccines wanes with it. “It is very difficult to develop a vaccine for older people,” notes Haseltine.
Second, coronaviruses make difficult vaccine candidates because they produce many proteins that allow them to trick and evade the immune system." https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/06/03/Vaccine-Will-Not-Erase-Pandemic/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=060320-3&utm_campaign=editorial-0620&fbclid=IwAR034HF1sY6HeE-3tLfAnnnKfqLLyTmqhVAa-Ywmey5WhiG3-Mm9Ko0Afjg
