Hang onto your hats, grab an entire pot of coffee, and settle in for the longest podcast I’ve ever done.
Dave Collum and I go way back, 25 years or more, dating to our early days stalking the early internet chatboards seeking fellow contrarians to bounce around our bearish ideas.
In this podcast, he details why this year’s Year In Review “Error 404” almost didn’t happen. He also goes pretty extensively into his “part III” from last year that never happened.
Yay. Happy New Year. So full of hopes and dreams. Wouldnt it be great if our government had New Years resolutions they tried to achieve? Oh wait, thats what elections are for. To give us hope that the person we vote for would do great things. Maybe, who knows, make America great again. Maybe, just maybe not side with the swamp. Maybe, just maybe drain the swamp? Maybe, just maybe care about constituents and not companies. Maybe, just maybe not be controlled by people who arent elected. Maybe, just maybe, ah who am i kidding. F IT they all suck. Id say burn it all down, but whats to burn down? We dont even know who is pulling the strings and if that isnt just what they want.
We are traveling from SD back to Michigan tomorrow, I know what we will be listening to . I told my wife it was over 3 hours , and she said”, that’s Iowa baby” .
H
I have been saying this math for 50 years. If you have a poor country and it’s in debt, that makes sense. If you have a country that is running well, it should not be in debt. If you have the most prosperous country in the world, and not just for a few years or decades, you should have a massive surplus. If you don’t, you are being robbed and the government needs to be at a minimum, replaced, but more appropriately, arrested and put in mass prisons as a message to those who might consider repeating this crime.
To elaborate on the snake eyes thread, tommy just did this podcast looking into it more:
Long podcast short, the Charlie Kirk saga was a multimillion dollar psyop to showcase to other Intel analysts, every one should ignore any blustering on nuclear weapon dominance.. ie USA signals to Russia/China please don’t test our nuclear deterance because it doesn’t work.
only 30 mins in but I have to say … the infamous “Part 3” from 2024 that was verbally discussed early on … I know why Dave is cautious, I can feel it myself, I self censor on the topic of pedophilia, why? … I think it is so damn evil, so ugly & dark, it is an assault on one’s spirit … it almost has to be ‘buried’ or the psychic pain is too great. If one was to bring it up and speak openly about the topic, one would quickly find yourself ‘alone’ and having to deal with that knowledge completely on your own. Does this make any sense? I am fishing here. I am struggling to understand why the topic of pedophilia is verboten.
@cmartenson re: Data Centers capex spend and unsustainability
I’ve been thinking about this a lot for the past about 8 months or so. As much as I want someone to stick a pin in it and let it deflate, I’m a bit concerned that it might not. Part of me wonders if what will happen is that the US government will try to backstop the datacenter owners, propping them up to use the compute for surveillance. The computers don’t care what they’re doing.
Part of why I’m concerned about it is that I’m more used to being the weirdo that no one agrees with. I’m seeing way too many people for my liking saying that AI is a bubble that’s going to burst. And certainly, that’s the intuitive answer, but something tells me that it doesn’t fit as well as they think it does.
Had to take a break near the end of this phenomenal podcast to watch the aerial fireworks on Zuck’s spread from my back window. Thanks for the show Mark,…
A minor issue:
the 15th-century 25% portfolio of cash, gold, real estate, and stocks…
The first stock ever sold in the world was issued by the Dutch East India Company (VOC) during its initial public offering (IPO) in August 1602.
The only way to interpret the ‘25% stocks’ would be as holding stocks of certain commodities: corn, liquor, linen etc. or partnerships, as ‘shares.’ Fugger was also a banker, so one might consider his loans as investments. He also contributed to various undertakings, such as trading voyages, and housing projects.
That’s a very fair point. I use “stocks” as a convenience to convey ownership in a company to modern folks.
Here’s what Gemini says about Fugger:
The Modern “Fugger Portfolio” Investment Strategy
This is a balanced, diversified investment model often attributed to Renaissance banker Jakob Fugger “the Rich”. It suggests dividing assets into four equal parts and periodically rebalancing them.
The recommended allocation is:
25% Stocks: For growth potential.
25% Real Estate: For equity-like diversification and a potential hedge against inflation.
25% Bonds: To provide stability and income.
25% Gold Coins: As a real asset and a safe haven against currency collapse or stagflation.
This strategy is similar to the “Permanent Portfolio” but replaces cash with real estate. It is designed for low cost, good returns, and resilience in various economic conditions.
The Historical Fugger Family Business
The actual business activities of the Fugger family, particularly under Jakob the Rich in the 15th and 16th centuries, were incredibly diverse and far-reaching, establishing a vast merchant and banking empire across Europe. Their portfolio included:
Banking and Lending: They were the primary financiers for powerful figures like the Habsburg emperors, including Maximilian I and Charles V, providing substantial loans to fund political alliances and military campaigns.
Mining Operations: A significant portion of their wealth came from investments in the mining industry. Rulers often granted them mining rights for silver and copper in Tyrol and Hungary as repayment for loans.
Trade and Textiles: The family fortune began with a successful textile business in Augsburg, which expanded into trading a variety of goods, including spices, jewels, and religious relics across different cultures and territories.
Real Estate: They invested in property, including the establishment of the Fuggerei, the world’s oldest social housing complex, in Augsburg.
