Looking at Ben Hunt’s “case, case, case, cluster, cluster…BOOM!” progression for covid-19, more and more countries are now entering the late cluster stage.
That means, expect Italy, Iran, South Korea, Japan, Spain, France, Germany, the US and a number of others to enter the “BOOM!” phase shortly.
That’s when hospitals become hopelessly overwhelmed, deaths begin skyrocketing, and government mass lockdowns get enacted.
We’re not saying this to scare you. We just want you emotionally prepared for what’s likely coming.
Look at the phase change in attitude that has happened in the past 2 weeks.
The public went from complacent to panicked. The markets tipped from greed to extreme fear.
That’s with less than 2 thousand known covid-19 cases in the US.
What will be like if the models are correct, and we have 4 million cases in two months?
Hopefully you watched our update yesterday in which Chris walked through the Adjustment Response progression. Make sure you and those around you are taking the time now to process your own, so that when the real crisis gets started, you’re ready to face it.
The time to prepare is now over. Now it’s about managing through what’s coming.
Get ready. And stay safe!
The coronavirus preparation megathreads available for free on PeakProsperity.com are a great resource for those still preparing:
If you’re one of the many new readers here on Peak Prosperity, be sure you’re up-to-date on developments with the coronavirus. All of our latest covid-19 video updates, podcasts and articles can be accessed here for free.
And here’s a brief list of the more recent material that Chris and I have published for our premium subscribers, to give you a sense of what’s behind the paywall (free executive summary, enrollmentrequired for full access)
Think it might be worth talking 2nd and 3rd order effects.
Fin collapse
Hospital collapse
Doctors suddenly retire
Retail collapse
Recession depression
Renewed family bonding
Institutional collapse - churches
Personal bankruptcy
Community outreach
Interested in other thoughts.
My sister in law was just sent to the ER by her Dr. My bro said its a shit- show at the hospital - she is now in isolation… She is one never to be sick and usually gets very mild symptoms compared to most. She has no underlying medical and barely 50 years old.
Update, I was pretty upset they went to hospital - it would certainly pose a risk … if you didnt have it… But what i dont get, is how stupid they both can be. Anyway she doesnt have it… she has the flu… But , I was angry they went - they said she couldnt breathe - and was dizzy… I told them there is no way she is sick enough to need the hospital… She caught the flu from her son that was home last weekend from school. . You cant develop pneumonia in three days… with covid or the flu… I cant believe they are this dumb to expose themselves - for something obvious… She had what I define as A COVID panic attack… .
My small town was slow to boil, but it is full tilt panic. It just went from zero to 60 in 1 day,
Calm, till we got out 1st covid case. Now, not a roll of toilet paper in any store.
At Amazon, I cannot comment officially as I am a small worker bee… But if you look at our web page, toilet paper and Lysol were already sold out. But now food items like Mac and Cheese are sold out. Rice is gone. Spaghetti is gone. But lol, plenty of international foods. Get your falafel while you can!
I see Idaho has its first case. The US crossed the 1000 case line on Tuesday, and I see we are over 2000 cases, confirmed, today, Friday. So, even with crappy testing, which means orders of magnitude higher actual infected, the doubling time appears to be around three days. I am in far eastern Oregon. Last trip to town was Monday, this week. Grocery store stocked up. No concern, clerk in hardware store laughed at my gloves. Got a package I signed for from UPS, today. I took it at the locked front gate, with gloves and a garbage bag for the delivery guy to drop it in. UPS guy not even gloves. Closest case is near Bend in central Oregon, about two hours west. A lot of locals go there for medical and Costco runs. All our mail and UPS, Fed. Ex., travels from there. So, I wait.
I have to crack up when I see people cleaning out the toilet paper in stores. There’s just something that’s humorous about that to me. I wonder how the cloth diaper supply is holding up?
We all here are way ahead of the curve, thanks to Chris and Adam, so take a deep breath and exhale.
This weekend is when you should stay in and hunker down. The people who were dismissing everything we told them are running scared and its going to be a mad house out there.
Even if you still need a few things, just stay home. Shelves are going to empty and people are going to be short tempered and angry. Don’t mix up in that.
There is still a deep supply of most things in warehouses around your towns but not at the stores, so shelves will empty but by Monday or Tuesday we should see them restock. That’s your window to go grab what you need. Most people will still have to go into work next week. Its not to the point many companies are going to send their workers home.
Review what you need, make your lists and decide where you want to shop. Have alternative sources. Know where you can get by without or with less.
The national government was slow to do anything about this, which almost certainly means they will overreact in the opposite direction soon. Local officials and local law enforcement is going to have everyone up their behinds, making them short tempered. Don’t put yourself into a position of having to interact with them. Drive the speed limit, use your turn signal.
Health care workers are already at their limit and can clearly see how they are going to get screwed. Don’t add to the problem.
Everyone of us is miles ahead of the pack. Remember that and take comfort that you are going to be ok.
why is toilet paper such a necessity? i mean we have water? i guess they plan for no water… which i guess is a problem if you live in the desert. But , a bucked and a rag - is all you need , why all this paper? I mean arabs dont even use toilet paper… They use water and a rag.
I’m sick and can’t get tested.
I returned from Europe near the end of February, symptoms started showing a week later. It was like having a cold or hay fever: runny nose, post nasal drip, slight cough, a little achey, no fever. A week later, they progressed to severe s.t., severe headache, major coughing, (small blood spots in phlegm) trouble breathing at night, slight fever 99/100. Called a telemedicine provider and got antibiotic. Started getting better slowly with the antibiotic and with supplements and herbs listed in the Mega threads. Thanks PP people!)
A day or so later I was told to go for a follow-up to local hospital. Mine is a renowned system here in San Diego, just down the road from the Salk Institute. They tell me to park in a pop up tent, (like the small ones you bring to a soccer game for shade) in front of the hospital for assessment. There is a lot of confusion from the harried triage nurse who comes out after an hour, why am I here? who told me to park here? (I’m the only car who can fit into the tiny tent.) who is the nurse who told you to park here? and on and on. It seems the urgent care nurse who told me to park in the triage area failed to inform the triage nurse they had a patient, and there was friction. She disappears for another half hour. I consider peeling out of the parking lot carrying the soccer tent with me.
Nurse comes back to say I’ll have to wait, she has other patients and sometimes the wait is five hours. Meanwhile I’ve been there, first in line for an hour and a half. Several cars pull up in back of me, she takes them all before me. We all wait for assessment and possible testing, all of us slowing the flow of hospital traffic, in and out of the lot.
The ambulance drivers give me dirty looks and make remarks because I am blocking the Ambulance Entrance, for hours. In fact the tent and the rest of the triage area impede their progress, forcing them to wrangle their patients next to my car, with me coughing constantly, and through the triage area.
When the nurse finally comes to assess me, I explain I’m starting to breathe and feel better, but was told to come in by their e-medicine nurse who was concerned about my symptoms and travel. I try to show her my calendar with the dates of foreign travel and the symptom on-set a week later. She doesn’t want to see it, just wants me to tell her and interrupts constantly, with questions that show she isn’t listening.
Finally a P.A. comes out and listens to my lungs and says yes I am still congested, asks me if I have asthma. I say no. He says “Well you’ve been sick too long to be shedding the virus enough for the test to pick up, and besides you’re starting to feel better, so we won’t test you. It sounds like you have some pluerisy, though so I’ll prescribe you a steroid and an inhaler and some cough syrup.” I am coughing violently throughout the assessment.
I am dejected at this point because I’m sick, and it’s been a long wait in the car for little result. He says “But you look great, so there’s that!” He gives me big smile and off he goes.
I get home and open up my mail from the medical system and read the hospital visit notes: the entire assessment notes are incorrect, including the listing of onset of symptoms as being a week earlier than they actually were; this makes it look like I’ve been sick for close to a month instead of two weeks, and listing me as having a high fever at the onset, no, it was much later and only slight, etc.
If this is the protocol for testing patients, God help us when they try to care for them.
I live in San Mateo County south of San Francisco. Some anecdotes:
All county schools closed from today into April at least.
Local markets are totally out of rice, pasta, toilet paper, bottled water and hand sanitizer.
My whole company is now remote with no return to work date.
My wife works in the City and cannot work remote. She’s been stretching her PTO but has to go in on Sunday. N95 masked of course.
It’s been very warm and dry in California for all of Feb but cold and rain scheduled starting tonight into next week.
Outside of the (relatively large) Asian community, very few people wearing masks.
My family is somewhat prepared. We have a deep pantry of the staple items above for at least a month. It doesn’t freeze here so I’ve had some winter crops growing, mainly garlic, lettuce and potatoes in addition to our fruit trees. Our Meyer Lemon has been going gangbusters. Vitamin C!
Bottom line, I fully expect a lockdown “all’Italiana” to take hold here soon. Our governor quietly announced executive authority to seize hotels through eminent domain and deploy the national guard to battle the virus. Yikes. My meager preps won’t save me from the chaos but at least give me a tiny bit more discretion about when I venture out for supplies. Stay safe everyone.
Its easy enough to understand. You're at home and see all the people buying toilet paper and the empty shelves on the news and laugh. Then you get to the store. You see people with full carts of TP, and think "What do they know, I don't?"
You go to the aisle and see it almost cleaned out, people grabbing packages and you think "What do they know, I don't?" so you grab a package or two, then grab one more for insurance.
You think what a bummer it would be to not have toilet paper to wipe your butt, so you grab one more just to be safe. You think, "What if I run out too?" Now you are at the checkout with a cart full of TP.
Multiple that hundred times.
I worked today as home health care for woman in rent-controlled senior/disabled apartment building in Boise, ID, 48 units, run by City of Boise. I asked manager if they are wiping door handles and elevators buttons. No, only maintenance allowed to do that and he isn’t doing it. Then 12 Boise State nursing students sailed in to teach residents the basics of diabetes self-care. NOT ONE had used hand sanitizer or had gloves. I dispensed sanitizer to each of them, while each noted my frown of disapproval.
@Janie-em
Wow, yeah, our health care system is an epic fail at this moment. My wife and I have Kaiser up here near San Francisco. We both have what could be Covid-19: low fever (always 99-101), sore itchy throat, a bit of dry coughing and runny nose. Nothing serious at all, but it just feels lodged there in my throat and chest for the last week or so. I may be imagining things, but it doesn’t feel like anything I’ve had before.
In any case, we can’t get tested either. We don’t qualify by Kaiser’s standards. It’s possible we’re classic community spreaders.
Two suburban school districts in the area were closed today after a positive test of a student and a direct contact with a confirmed case. At 3 PM the governor announced not penalties for falling short of 180 school days this year. Within minutes, at least 6 more districts including my town announced they would be closed next week. I have been in communication with the superintendent all week feeding him information which he did his best to digest, several times asking for more. I’ve included well organized summaries of the data organized into a coherent narrative (with a heartfelt appeal) that tells the story “Why Close School”. This particular piece helped a lot. He was interested in the spreadsheet it links to for computing your organization’s risk so he could share it with other superintendents (see the link in the first comment). I believe the spreadsheet is too conservative especially with low case counts because it assumes too many imported cases that would not be linked to current undetected community spread. That might have been valid a month ago, but not now.
Anyway, I hope I played a role in his decision.
