UNCONFIMRED
NZ is seriously considering closing the border. If yes (?) will be announced this week, my guess Monday night/Tuesday morning NZ time.
Nice to have you aboard.
By all means Montana guy, buy the dip. Nobody should dissuade you and I won’t be the first since bounces are assured from oversold conditions. That’s just part of how markets work. I don’t recommend holding though since the outlook of metals prices is dismally clear (to me anyway) but please do make your own calls. We need guys like you.
But never mind gold for a second, what really interests me right now is the DOW more than anything else and so I will write my forecast here and let you judge it as Sunday rolls around and the new week begins.
Foremost in my mind is that the DOW has not yet hit bottom.
The ferocious bounce we saw on Friday was the result of computers and their companion algo’s mechanically hitting a 20,230 low target that was the support line in all their code. In the process, the DOW never even reached down to 20,000 nor settled and consolidated at 20,230 correctly and as an outcome its now going to fall even lower. What we should have seen at 20,230 was a proper close and an overshoot on the daily level below that price point but obviously the market was feeling insecure since the humans really have no idea what’s happening right now and so the machines were in total control.
And so, being machines, the computers just kicked in automatically at the technical low and took price straight back up by 1000 points without many objections from anybody and then carried on higher before finally closing the day around 23,000. It was enough to make a lot of guys think the bottom had been hit. Too bad for them.
Starting Sunday night things will be a little different since over the weekend the bats and the vampires have pretty much sorted things out and see the opportunity. And they are going to be taking these markets right back down because that bottom was both imperfect and incomplete and everyone knows it. So if you had big plans to see a huge bounce continue from where price stopped on Friday and have bought heavily for the bounce then this memo is not going to be good news for you.
What I believe is that there could be as much as 3000 points of loss on the DOW next week and we are heading to 19,590 as a bottom that can be bought for a genuine reversal (using the front month contract as my measure here). It does remain to be seen of course and should Dow futures soar Sunday night then feel free to write back and tell me I don’t know what the hell I am talking about. LOL
Being humiliated by total strangers on technical matters is apparently my specialty lately. Otherwise, get ready to sell when you wake up Monday morning if its another sea of red since, from my viewpoint, the bleeding is not quite over yet.
Hi I am not sure who asked, they were looking for Chris’s adjustment or was is awareness. I think it was March 12 video.
nordicjack,
Yes, I’m referring to the infection fatality rate. This is the data point mentioned in the study of the Diamond Princess, trying to apply what they can learn from that to the general population. They came up with the figure 0.5% to 1.2% (if I recall correctly). I’ve also read the “below 1%” figure a few times. I haven’t seen the figure that Chris claimed mentioned except in the early phases before much had been studied.
I get your point about the damage, though.
Hey, I do think that 5 times as bad, is bad enough to worry people and that the real possibility of 20%-30% lung capacity loss just adds to that worry. I just don’t like extreme numbers being posited frequently without some kind of reasoning.
Thanks for the reply.
No. Oh no no no.
Things are happening faster than I thought. Hospitals are running out of equipment, health care wokers are calling in sick, there are shortages of staff as well as supplies. And we have the situation authorities were trying to avoid: Mr Badger is - most likely - in hospitals.
To make things even worse, there are rumours that UK’s strategy is being considered. I really hope those are just rumours, because if true, that would be more horrifying than anything else I have heard this far.
(Sweden)
Update: For now the herd immunity strategy seems to be mainly rumours. Our CDC equivalent denies that this is the current strategy and says it’s totally focused on slowing the spread.
Unless there is a “Miracle Cure” from China, the news will continue to be bad. More infected, dead, cancellations, earning downgrades, business closures, bankruptcies, unemployment, recession, talk of depression etc. Fridays close is back to about where we where at the start of 2019. How do you think companies are going now vs the start of 2019? I don’t think we will see a bottom for many months till the bad news is all out and we know what the forward earnings look like. I’m surprised that under the continual disclosure rules that companies are not flooding the wire with earning downgrades.
…and image what happens to the markets when the US starts to get 10,000’s of deaths and the panic really sets in.
You’re going to feel so bad pretty soon…
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/price-physical-gold-decouples-paper-gold
I just saw a couple of interesting lectures on Youtube. These are out of date (from Feb 26 and March 7), but have a lot of interesting info about infectious diseases and Covid-19 in particular. It seems that Marcel Salathé had been invited to give a lecture before the Coronavirus became a thing and changed his first lecture to give info on the subject.
The first is 1 hr 33 mins, but worth a look if you have some time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RQBtA4dK9s
The second is more recent (still out of date, from March 7) but shorter 22 mins:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0cjSnAynGs
Just an FYI, but he gives an epidemiologists perspective. I wish I had found them sooner.
You know i learned an very important lesson in 2011, when i was absolutely certain Greece was going to collapse the Euro and EU with it that i bought a few bags of sugar and salt in almost a panic.
Turns out i never anticipated €350 billion in government guarranteed bailouts. Rotated the entire banking sector debt onto the balance sheet of the EU governments dontchaknow.
So the lesson i learned was:
You can’t see everything on a chart.
The economy is peoples and the charts only show what peoples did. If you don’t know at what time they did what, the charts are meaningless. The line doesn’t move by itself; it’s moved by people.
So with my real life experience of how people work; here’s how that flattening the curve really looks in actuality once things get going. NOTE: I used the vox’s chart only because it’s more zoomed in so i’ve got more room to work with. This same principle applies just as much, if not more, to the more extreme charts.
My point is, in reality, the curve has already shifted. We’re past “no problem”. We’re already hitting “we’re going to have a problem” because we see the human effects of what humans do once we hit the stage, “we’re going to have a problem”:
- Rationing
- resupplying with surrounding stockpiles
- Increasing capacity by ~20%
- plans drawn up for multiple scenarios
- spreading out sick patients over hospitals (who then have their own patients more spread out, causing a chain reaction if the problem isn’t mitigated in the meanwhile)
Italy has reached the Overwhelming stage. That’s why they went on lockdown. Iran is past it; deaths are mounting due to healthcare inefficiencies, simply because their system was weaker and cracked sooner.
I’m afraid that “flattening the curve”, while very good advice and we should still try to do it as much as possible because everything we do will help mitigation as well, is too little too late.
Flattening the curve was a week ago. That’s the problem with exponential functions. Your catch up has to be even faster. Like trying to keep Chris’s baseball stadium dry. If you need 1 mop for the job, then 2, then 4, Then you can’t have a response where you try to mop it with 1 mop, then 2, then 3. Basically if you’re going to run you’re going to die tired.
The only way to stop this now and actually stomp the curve like south korea did, is immediate lockdown of all infected areas, nobody comes out, and the only people allowed to approach is food convoys.
Prioritize food, water, electricity and medicine, and sacrifice everything else. EVERYTHING. If you value human life, that is the right response.
Don’t think it’s not gone already. The economy is done for, the oil shock took care of that. The losses last week will be insurmountable. The US was running a $1 trillion dollar deficit 2 months ago, at record highs of everything. What do you think will happen to it now?
Who will BUY all those bonds? Where the hell is the $50 billion for the national emergency coming from? Nobody’s said anything about that, everybody just assumes it’s from some jar somewhere. What if it’s not? What if they have to go to the open market to get it, an open market that is now very quickly shutting down. Credit spreads are huge and everything the Fed has thrown at it the past week has failed. Lower on the emergency rate cuts, $1,5 trillion in repos lasted 15 minutes. The only thing that rallied the Dow was Trump’s jawboning, but how much has actually been enacted? $58 billion ($8 billion package + $50 billion national emergency).
Great for buying masks. But the $1 trillion dollar deficit means you already borrow $2,9 billion dollars every day (the rest is tax revenue. Which is going to crater this year) which is a truly staggering amount of money.
Does such an entity really have $50 billion in cash just lying around? the $8 billion stimulus is most certainly borrowed. It will already be within 3 days.
Who’s going to buy those bonds? Italy? China? South Korea? Japan?
Pension/institutionalized/bank investors?
The problem is simply too big. Too many peoples moved at once. Even if we just imagine for a second that the virus was a hoax all along; one giant joke, then just like highway ghost traffic the depression has already happened. Just because there’s no accident at the end of traffic doesn’t mean the traffic wasn’t there.
Only thing any of us can do now is fight for our own local community and try to mitigate the impact locally as much as possible. Read what’s on this website, go to your local hospital as long as it’s still safe, and just go talk to somebody. Make sure they’re on the right page. Make sure they know about the Aerosols, being infected via Eyes, that younger people get infected just as much only they show less (severe symptoms), to not be dismissive when somebody comes in Confused or Intelligible because those are symptoms caused by Covid (because people will, at first, assume "oh it’s just another crazy like all of them have been so far. Gamblers Fallacy).
Forget the authorities, they have been behind the curve for too long. Bureaucracies in the west are too big and too slow to adjust to this. We are on our own.
Since the situation is escalating, i just wanted to leave this here. It’ll become important later when it becomes apparent that you did everything right, prepared in advance, tried to warn people, yet still either got infected, lost a loved one, or saw society break down exactly as you said it would.
Remember this to pull yourself together and get back out there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4A-Ml8YHyM
Desogames, that article you linked is not really an article at all. It’s more like an opinion piece from a company that sells bullion and it is propaganda so be careful what you believe. Right now a lot of dealers are holding stock they bought two weeks ago at prices above the current market price and they need buyers to take it off their hands quickly so of course there are “shortages” so you better run in and buy something quick.
Or…you can use your head and just let gold fall. Gold is going to deflate. It’s funny that even some real old hands in this marketplace still think gold is the thing to own right now and its bulletproof but I don’t think they are appreciating the severity of what is now taking place in the resource markets. We have a near collapse on our hands so this is a time to shelter in dollars and not get fancy trying to make points about gold being some special savior.
After listening to the same repetitive propaganda being spewed by the gold promoters since the year 2000, the one thing I am sure about is you need to use your own head and examine the charts yourself. Do not take anyone’s words at face value where precious metals are concerned.
Most of those guys blathering do not know what they are talking about.
Listening to a great video of John Rubino, for some reason crystalized my comprehension of the twin exponential functions related to the corona virus and the debt accumulation which is now a sword of Damocles hanging over the world economy. Rubino basically says that there are two paths for the world economy: a 1930s style deflationary depression or massive currency devaluation. It will either be one or the other, but most likely currency devaluation since that is more stealthy.
It is clear, however, that in the case of the debt exponential function, things were bound to reach the point where a dollar‘s increase of debt has no economic benefit. The gigantic overhang of debt represents the total interest generated by exponential debt increase from rolling over debt. The overwhelming increase in corona virus cases could even be imagined as a sort of debt overhang imposed by nature.
Thus, an alternative to the two alternatives mentioned by Rubino would appear to be implementing the ancient biblical prescription of a debt jubilee in some form or another. Interestingly, Trump has already adumbrated that solution in granting a temporary cessation of interest payments on student loans. Since this baby is going down in any case, it seems to me that there needs to be a mass movement aimed at procuring a debt jubilee, something that has been hiding in the shadows but is now apposite. Its time has come!
Kinda a weird opinion when you “need to get rid of stock you bought 2 weeks ago” while in the article it says “Cannot get silver eagles 2020 anymore” and “we’re raising premiums on weekends because of a demand spike”.
I mean if you’re desperately trying to sell gold, why RAISE the premium? It’s the same with Saudi Arabia, if you’ve got a budget for $56 a barrel which leaves you with a 6,4% fiscal deficit, why on earth would you crash the price to try and win against a nation with no outside debt, no treasuries exposure, a 7% of GPD sovereign wealth fund (would mean $1,5 trillion in cash if the US had it) and can, very certainly, survive $30 oil prices for a year. Their claim of $25 for 10 years seems bluff; they’re not in that good of a position, it’s completely ignoring the knock on effects for the rest of the global economy. But $25 for 5 years? Sure. I’ll give them that. With alot of pain, though.
Meanwhile nobody even mentions US shale which has never turned a profit and is deeply in debt. They actually need $80 or more a barrel or the whole house of cards comes down, which isn’t a good spot to be in after the price wars from 5 years ago. And the US needs to fund a $1 trillion dollar deficit on the open markets which just had it’s biggest liquidity seizure since 2008.
As i’ve kept saying but people seem to gleefully ignore. You prepare for the future. Not for now. Physical Gold is an store of value, an insurance. Can the value go down against the dollar? Yes. Can it go up against the dollar? Yes.
Is that because the value of gold changes? No. The value of the dollar changes.
Gold is deflating now because we’re in a liquidity crisis of epic proportions. Cash is king. Not for any mystical reasons. But because Cash is still the no.1 collateral and everybody and their mother is scrambling for collateral.
The Fed offered $1,5 trillion in repo operations. Dealers only took1 $78 billion. Why? Because for repos, you need to post collateral. And i am veeeery bullish on collateral at the moment. All of it is digital of course and well, physical gold is not. Hence, cash.
You’re forgetting 1 thing Nairobi. Supply and Demand. While the financial markets might have been made deliberately obtuse and opaque, the real world economy still operates on the simple principle of supply and demand.
Paper gold will go down, sure. That was the whole point of the article. Good luck finding physical for the paper price. Oh - you can find physical, sure! but at what cost? It’s not binary yknow, there will always be some supply, but demand sets the price.
We have a near collapse on our hands so this is a time to shelter in dollars and not get fancy trying to make points about gold being some special savior.How are you so sure the Dollar is so safe? Because it's always been? EDIT: Just to continue that line of thinking. WHERE do you have your dollars? Banking system? JP Morgan? A vault? Cause i took what cash i have out of the banking system 2 months ago. What is your estimate on when the US institutes Capital Controls?
Anyways, i was preparing some charts for my argument; just quickly gonna go through those first then we get to the weird thing.
I wanted to post that chart just as an example that we do have an example of a historical period of deflation where none the less, gold increased in value. No, they won’t confiscate gold now, because it’s pointless; the dollar is no longer backed by gold. Confiscating gold does nothing to shore of the confidence of the dollar, in fact, it’d be as counter productive as Jay Powell’s emergency 50 bps rate cut. Also, from a human perspective, many if not all of the rich elite in control of the US actually own the bulk of private physical gold (as well as other assets), so it’s not in their interest. Inflation is, tho.
The reason i’m bullish on silver is simply upside potential. Silver will get hit harder first, then rise more later. At some point the market will turn - it always does - and i just want to be in that market when it happens.
Just as we’re learning with ETFs now, the size of the exit is no where near big enough to accommodate everybody leaving at once. So too, is the entrance to physical gold and silver, when everybody tries to get inside at once.
Regardless of your current stance on silver/gold, you can’t possibly deny that that chart is extremely bullish. Adjusted for inflation we’re already damn near the 2007 bottom, with Trillions and Trillions of money printed since then! Will it go lower in the short term? Very likely, the line is very much above the 2000 lows so there’s still downside potential. It’s just the upside potential is so much larger.
The question is; are you again so sure you are the one to call the rush for the entrance as sure as you called the rush for the exits?
Aaaanyway. That’s not the weird thing. I came across that when i was looking up gold production vs oil production to make a point why gold will rise while it’s natural oil should fall. Buuut that’s not really important. What is important though, is this thing i came across while looking for that info:
THAT is not normal. Especially not considering the 2 charts left and right of it. Maybe be indicators of a market breaking under stress like so many things are at the moment.
Any comments on what the hell i’m looking at here?
For real-time genomic changes see the link below. You can also track the L (leucine strain)and S(serine) strains.
www.nextstrain.org
I flew from the UK to Switzerland (biz trip)… 28/02 and returned on Friday 13th – unlucky for some. I’m isolation for 7 days being a 60s myself… (5 days to go)
Here’s a summary of what happened Friday 13th.
I took 2x Swiss trains SBB which got me to Basel, then a flight to the southwest UK… then a coach to my home. Throughout my journey I wore a N95 mask purchased before the panic in Jan’ due to being a heavy user of Chris’s early warning vids. It had to be removed for security checks frequently enroute. Though not seated on train/plane/coach.
No one else on my journey had any protection at all. This is a tragedy for security staff at airports, and jet cabin aircrew. Would I be panicked to see staff on coaches, planes or trains being adequately protected?
Not at all – reassured in fact.
This anecdote is key: I was standing on a 1st class ICE train point almost Noon regional Swiss small town… not many folks hopping onto the Zurich train. Opposite platform… a group of 12-15 year olds teens shuffled on opposite from where I stood - about to hit their few ride stops train home post Schulunterricht.
Immediately they spotted me…. loud coughing ensued… and a chant of “Corona… Corona….”
I just stood fast… and didn’t turn… (thinking different has been a career choice of mine)
Bottom line? Their 50s parents and elderly grandparents are f#ckd.
This is why too, central the EU and UK is doomed to go full Italia. Likely also the good ole USA. Why? They are all adopting the 4 stage strategy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak
As of last night 300 UK scientists have thankfully challenged Boris’s take-it-on-the-chin approach.
http://maths.qmul.ac.uk/~vnicosia/UK_scientists_statement_on_coronavirus_measures.pdf
We blew it folks the time for serious action was draconian lockdowns in Feb.
What can we expect now?
UK 1.5m gone by Xmas 2020,mainly the 80s age group generation, then 70s and 60 year olds and any younger folk who are immunosuppressed or vulnerable.
USA numbers are more ugly possible 7m+
(Normalcy bias has a lot to answer for on this one)
Finally, some words of wisdom from a yank Medic – best PODCAST summary of where we are at as of this weekend.
https://peterattiamd.com/peterhotez/
Good luck everybody, sadly it has come down to that.
P.S. God bless Chris & Adam for tirelessly getting the word out, their foresight will I’m sure have saved many.
Des, one of the reasons premiums on gold go up is because the price of gold falls below the cost it was purchased for. That is the mechanism by which dealers working near spot have of getting paid for their higher priced inventory. If they bought at 1700 and 5 days later prices have crashed to 1500 there is going to be hell to pay since margins are pretty thin in the metals business.
So the way they will make up part of the difference is with premium. They may take a partial loss on some product bought at the very top though. And then the balance of inventory is stuff they bought weeks or even months ago at much lower prices so if they are careful they won’t face going broke by wild price swings. But they won’t tell you any of that because like all propagandists it suits their narrative better if they tell you there are premiums due to high demand.
Just watch demand fall as gold prices deflate though. Des, the chart tells me we are going to 1305 to close that gap. But once we hit 1305 we are going to experience an unavoidable technical breakdown that will cascade prices back the the prior lows of 1045.
There is no way out of this anymore. I surmise a final low on gold below 1000 dollars because some chart work shows that is a very strong possibility. But its not a guarantee. We may just see a double bottom around 1045 but really what’s the difference when you are coming off a 1700 dollar high?
Gold is going to get bludgeoned. Even if the gold bugs don’t want to believe its possible.
This is a very simple matter.
Just ask yourself, “Is my credit more important than living? Is my credit score more important than keeping my family better prepared for the effects of this Pandemic, and the total collapse of the economy?”
Maxing out your credit cards, and all other forms of credit, in an effort to obtain what you need to survive this disaster…IS WHAT CREDIT IS FOR!!
Remember, this pandemic will result in a world wide depression, and an economic disaster, which will effect every aspect of our lives.
Imagine looking upon the corpse of your wife and thinking…“Well, at least my credit is still good.”
One can use several legal and tactical means to handle credit dept, AFTER your family gets past this pandemics and the transition into what follows. Chapter 13, Chapter 7, and the like.
Who knows, you may die and your life insurance will cover it all…IF your insurance company actually pays out anything at all.
Get what you need NOW…while you STILL CAN. What good is credit, after your financial institution cancels all credit?
Just don’t spent it on meaningless garbage.