https://youtu.be/q4P91VrfPGw?t=532
See YT video about Covid-19 immunity studies on 4 apes.
There’s enough trouble with the truth out there, don’t add to the issue by pushing debunked gossip…
https://www.snopes.com/news/2020/03/17/trump-poach-coronavirus-vaccine/
If we did what Brandon suggests, the idea is to isolate and save the most vulnerable. The best information we have, large study from China + latest fatality and hospitalization estimates from Wuhan itself + Diamond Princess + heterogenous infection model implies that the disease will infect between 25% - 50% of the population in total, with young people significantly less susceptible than old people and with 2-10% requiring hospitalization (lower end amongst younger people).
So if we try to isolate the old people as far as possible, and did nothing else (and I’m not suggesting we do this) we could expect something like 100 million people to become sick, with perhaps 30 million at the peak and 1-1.5 million requiring hospitalization (the lower bound if we do manage to keep the elderly relatively isolated). This is too many people, so we need to flatten the curve by about 50% or so to keep things manageable - but I do think that level of flattening could be achieved without total lockdown.
The benefit of this plan is that herd immunity can be achieved without so many old and vulnerable people ever becoming sick. The whole point of the plan is in fact to protect the elderly by differentially allowing the young to be exposed and become immune while the elderly are protected.
One thing I’m not sure about is how well significant immunity amongst a younger group would work to protect older people. If older people largely socialize with other older people then it may not provide much benefit in which case this wouldn’t be a good plan.
FYI - this is the best data site I have found - it really really has masses of really good data.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Rebel
My understanding from watching that same press conference, Trump was talking about the measures to contain the virus, and to mitigate the economic damage, not the medical aspects of curing patients.
I could be wrong…
And as far as his tweet stating (roughly) “we’ll see where we go after the 15 day stay at home period,” isn’t that prudent.
If it gets a lot worse in every state, then I don’t think you’ll see states lift their measures no matter what the President says or tweets.
Say this is contained in most states, but New York, Washington State and California are still experiencing epidemics. Does it make sense to have the nation totally shut down, or to start relaxing some measures. This is all up to the states after all. States are issuing the stay at home orders not the President. The federal government made recommendations, the states and cities could ignore them.
Interesting, when you look at the data, only New York is showing a serious infection rate (so far.)
Besides being densely populated, their managers also had their heads in the sand from very early…
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/nyc-health-commissioner-oxiris-barbot-mocked-coronavirus-fears-in-february-today-nyc-leads-nation-in-most-cases-and-most-deaths/
Strongest correlation factor between fatalities and hypertension in Italy, now is that because as people age, more people are on BP med’s or is their correlation.Other studies show that hypertension, which is one symptom of cardiovascular disease, does not increase with age, rather it increases with the length of time a person consumes the Western diet. In the dwindling parts of the world where people don’t consume diets high in fat, meat and dairy, blood pressure goes down with age. Sadly, I have been eating healthy for less than two years, after over 60 years on the Western diet. In that time I’ve reduced my blood pressure medication by 75%, but not been able to go off it entirely. I’m hoping to be prescription medication free by the time I reach 70. There are other benefits to a healthy vegan diet going forward. First, vegans can grow enough food on far less than an acre, where omnivores require a minimum of several acres to support their richer eating habits, not to mention additional water, energy and effort. Second, vegans get essentially all the vitamins, nutrients and antioxidants needed from food, without requiring supplements. The supplement industry provides things that don’t exist in animal sourced foods, or in plant based foods that have had most of the beneficial content processed out.
"All this caused great joy. Among the various
utterances of this feeling was the letter of M. Sarot,
directed to the editor of the Journal of the National
Assembly, and scattered through France. M. Sarot is
hardly able to contain himself as he anticipates the
prosperity and glory that this issue of paper is to bring
to his country. "
Fiat Money Inflation in France by Andrew Dickson White
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-nearly-half-of-canadas-covid-19-cases-now-acquired-through-community/
With a poll showing 20% of Canadians STILL think this is not serious, and are still demonstrating that ignorance through their selfish behaviours, Canada is heading for massive outbreaks in the next couple of weeks.
It did not have to be this way… ?? ?
Jan
Did you’ll see this. Make way for the new digital dollar.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2020/03/23/new-coronavirus-stimulus-bill-introduces-digital-dollar-and-digital-dollar-wallets/#4dc1ab1f4bea
Here is a photo of the facemasks being made by a neighbor’s sewing club for our hospitals in Atlanta. They have a slot included for a disposable filter insert. A link is included below to a youtube video with directions for producing this mask.
link for making the mask: https://youtu.be/BCJcE-r7kcg
The analysts that said with the Fed easing funding stresses, focus will likely shift to the large size of the Fed balance sheet expansion, increase in developed market fiscal deficits and concerns about the sustainability of the European monetary union.
“We believe this will likely lead to debasement concerns similar to the post [Global Financial Crisis] period,” they said.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-says-it-is-time-to-buy-gold-the-currency-of-last-resort-2020-03-24?mod=mw_latestnews
This looks promising for increasing the number of ventilators world wide.
https://hackaday.com/2020/03/23/mit-ventilator-designed-with-common-manual-resuscitator-submitted-for-fda-testing/
Actual site…
https://e-vent.mit.edu/
Extending Afridev’s post above (#31 in this thread ), I have heard that the the ratio of actual cases to diagnosed cased is closer to 30:1 rather than the 3:1 Afridev used. (This is from an interview with Marc Lipsitch, Harvard epidemiologist, though I can’t find the link where he gives this figure.)
The emergency physician closed facebook group reports that ALMOST NOBODY is being tested in many states at this time. Test kits are in short supply and do not help with care. It is now the consensus that the PCR test results do not impact hospital care, the decision to admit, what unit to admit to or the hospital treatment plan.PUI (persons under investigation for suspected COVID-19) who are hypoxic are admitted with a Do Not Resuscitate order as CPR is futile, and only infects the staff. Treatment is almost nothing: Tylenol, oxygen and a ventilator when needed. Experimental antiviral studies have overflowed and are no longer being offered.
Patients who are discharged from the ED are not tested, either. The PCR test is considered too inaccurate to guide public health measures at this stage due to 1) wide dissemination of the infection and 2) the very high percentage of carriers that are asymptomatic, and 3) the high numbers of false positive and false negatives with this test.
Right now in the big cities of the USA: cough, fever, infiltrate on chest x-ray and hypoxia is “viral pneumonia probably COVID-19”. No PCR, No CT scans.
So, I am guessing that the 400K Afridev estimated for NY currently should be regarded as a low-end estimate with a high-end estimate of more like 4 million. [edited]
And in the next 2 weeks, possibly as high as 400,000, (10% of the actually infected), [edited] of these New Yorkers will need hospitalization.
This is horrible beyond all belief. The ER doctors are showing signs of PTSD as the magnitude of the human disaster is dawning on them. And we are not even close to the peak. Pre-Traumatic Stress Disorder.
Bah Humbug.
Appearing Tuesday on WMAL’s Morning on the Mall, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, accused D.C. journalists of attempting to pit him against President Donald Trump and affirmed there is no rift between himself and the president on how to combat the Chinese coronavirus outbreak.
(Listen from 6:04)
A partial transcript is as follows:
VINCE COGLIANESE: It seems like increasingly a bunch of questions from the media are designed to create a rift between you and the President of the United States, at least, to emphasize differences of opinion that creates distances between you and the president. Are you sensing that as the media continually asks you questions about the differences you have with him?
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: That is really unfortunate. I would wish that would stop because we have a much bigger problem here than trying to point out differences. They really, fundamentally, at the core when you look at it, there are not differences. The president has listened to what I’ve said with the other people on the task force have said. When I’ve made recommendations, he’s taken them. He’s never countered and overridden me. The idea of pitting one against the other is just not helpful and I’d wish that would stop so we can look ahead at the challenge we have together to get over this thing.
But I agree with this:
The US is really screwed. Too few people ‘get it’ and too few of our national managers (not leaders) get it, which means the tuition cost of experience is going to be very high.
It sounds like those provisions have been removed for now, but the cat is certainly out of the bag.
We now know for a fact what the owners are planning to do, sooner or later.
esp. ACE inhibitors, and ARBs https://www.acc.org/latest-in-cardiology/articles/2020/03/17/08/59/hfsa-acc-aha-statement-addresses-concerns-re-using-raas-antagonists-in-covid-19
I noticed, at least for the US, they are spreading cases out by county, again. Interesting to see the cases tracking the major highways and clustered in the big city hubs.
Zinc, Quercetin & Hydroxychloroquine and some hard realities - Ford Brewer MD MPH
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SpuRyURE3s