Sitka is beautiful. Well 9 months of the year. You can’t drive to it. Boats or planes are the only way to get there. Yes, I would say it’s a good bug out location.
There are a lot of remote locations here in Alaska.
But, being part of a community is better, in my opinion, than bugging out and being isolated. Reminds me of the story about the rich guy who had a hell of a place up here. He lived in the lower 48 and had this log mansion all decked out. Well he arrived to vacation in his fine house and someone had backed a U-Haul up to it and took everything including the toilet paper. It pays to have good friends who look out for you.
here is a good presentation from Stanford school of medicine professor Michael Lin, PhD-MD:
Warning: Contains facts, lots of facts
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZaiDO87me4puBte-8VytcSRtpQ3PVpkK/view?fbclid=IwAR3H7i3I25P33kNrsBz5T3d8DGfrSS24AqqFsLEbOLn3n77Kr6KWloE8uJE
lots of information and recommendations on all aspects of COVID-19. e.g resuing masks:
To clean and reuse masks, place in oven at 70ºC = 160ºF for 30-60min, or expose both sides in a UV
sterilizer. Alcohol is not recommended (mp.weixin.qq.com/s/3QYVWO4kj5qwuSHnhcM9uQ). 3/20
update: Before rule-lovers complain, I’ll point out that UV sterilization and reuse of masks is now being
done by hospitals (www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-masks-reuse.html). Funny how
single-use rules promoted by manufacturers are taken as inviolable truth, until they are revealed as not.
the last slide:
No need to worry about supplies
• 50% of people with virus have no symptoms but will
become immune, just like most symptomatic people
• 95% don’t need to go to the hospital
• The workforce is not threatened
• Farmers and truck drivers and store workers will be
available for work
• You don’t need to buy everything in sight
• This is not the zombie apocalypse
I posted something about this behind the paywall, but there is a citizen’s movement afoot about making homemade masks for ourselves and local communities. Maybe we can send some of the masks we are making to our representatives to help them “get it.” We can take action on their behalf even if they aren’t yet taking action on ours.
I’ll probably really catch it (not COVID) for this post.
From the Italian to the Chinese experience only 1 to 2 1/2% of deaths occur in those without comorbidities.
Why are we not quarantining just those with comorbidities? The death rate would otherwise be similar to that for the flu (.2% v .1%)
The main question:
Under such a quarantine would the high infectivity index of COVID-19 still overload our healthcare system.
It would certainly preserve our economy, as most of those quarantined individuals would probably be retired or not working.
No one seems to be talking about the inevitable stagflation on steroids or outright hyperinflation that looms if we continue on our present path.
The Chinese experience
https://medium.com/@eolszewski/the-data-on-your-chances-of-dying-from-covid-19-coronavirus-394276153b83
The Italian experience
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
This idea is not crazy… I won’t argue with it in general - I mean all states with lockdowns are in fact leaving critical infrastructure operating… so people are in fact going to work. I do some days myself.
That being said, there is a long tail of co-morbidities that we just don’t have our hands wrapped around yet. What about smokers? What about young pot smokers or vape users? What about obsessive long-distance runners? What about people taking immuno-down modulator anti-IL-6 drugs for things like arthritis and psoriasis? The list goes on… I think we are better off working the angle of immunity vs not, as that is not subject to interpretation.
I will run the numbers you suggested. Won’t take long.
But I think my main point still stands. I believe one size does not fit all and we would probably be ill-served by a national stay-at-home order such as South Korea or Hong Kong instituted and that it seems both you and Chris are inclined to implement. If I am misrepresenting either of you, I sincerely apologize.
If the President tells everyone to stay home for a month, then there will be no corn, wheat and soybeans planted…you only get once chance per year to do that. We do not have reserves enough to see us through a year with no crops. If he shuts Wyoming down, there will be no coal to keep a lot of power plants running, ditto for Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana oil.
So, I think it is far wiser to let the governors decide what quarantine measures to take for their own states, rather than impose a national policy.
Something like “every cloud has a silver lining”? I must say, my neighborhood is well on its way to a collective loss of girth and poundage. I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many individuals, couples, families, and pets out walking, jogging, and biking, at all times of the day, over the last couple weeks. Only so much doom porn one can take before the nervous energy takes over. Oh, BTW, TP is back in stock. Yeah! I was concerned I’d have to do a scoot on the grass like my dog (although he also likes the kitchen floor or the shag rug in the family room).
Part of the explanation for the bad Swedish response have surfaced. It seems that the government agency for public health doesn’t have any kind of priority or focus on preventing or mitigating spread of infectious diseases. Instead it is all about postmodern identity politics.
Goals and demands
The public health authority shall contribute to acheiving the public health policy of creating societal conditions for good and equal health in the entire population and to end the divides in health within a generation.
Equality integration
The public health authority shall declare results from the actions taken regarding equality integration which have been implemented by the agency to contribute to the goals of the equality policies.
Sick leave in Sweden
The public health authority shall declare how the agency, through its work, has contributed to a long-term stable and low level of sick leave in Sweden.
Priorities of the agency
- The health of children and youths in migration.
- Actions to further equal rights regardless of sexual orientation, gender identity or gender expression
- National identities
This politicized, non-scientific, agency is also the residence of the top epidemiologist in the country.
Though, it seems that they have decided that “equality” means sacrificing lives to keep businesses going and money flowing. Which, in the end, will cost countless more lives and eventually things will get so bad that they’ll have no choice but to shut everything down anyway. Like in Italy and Spain.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/swedish-pm-warned-russian-roulette-covid-19-strategy-herd-immunity?CMP=share_btn_tw
He was on WMAL, the DC talk station, this morning, close to 7:30. Gave every indication he and the President are on fine terms; does not think there’s any daylight between them.
I’m guessing he’s not there when he’s not needed. Guy’s probably pretty busy, probably working long hours, doesn’t need unnecessary pressers. I think we’ll see him again when it’s appropriate for him to weigh in.
I don’t think we have enough knowledge to determine that having the disease confers protection for all time. I’ve head medical people talk about needing regular boosters, for example. Then there are different strains and we’ve heard about possible re-infections.
It’s still a novel virus.
There is nothing more isolating than sitting in a tractor cab. Under the recent lockdown here in Washington State, the list of types of essential workers – exempt from the lockdown – runs to 14 pages long. I’m reasonably sure farmers are on that list.
Pretty random intrusion.
I’ll bet there’s a Forum topic for that. Or you could start one.
I managed the real estate portion of the Alaska public employees and teachers in the mid 90’s. Shortly before we left Juneau, my wife and I took the ferry to Sitka. The rain was torrential the entire time. However, it was worse in Juneau. While we were away for 2-3 days, an entire house slid into the sea.
What I most remember about Sitka is a book that I discovered on the end table of our B&B room. Ishmael by Daniel Quinn. It changed my worldview.
The data were taken from the sources in the links below. Using them, I calculated confirmed coronavirus cases per million population. Here are the results for selected states.
New York 1300
Washington 325
California 60
Wyoming 51
North Dakota 50
Montana 46
Iowa 39
South Dakota 36
Nebraska 33
Idaho 31
Texas 30
Kansas 29
Oklahoma 28
My point in the original post was that the states that are responsible for the bulk of our energy and food production are in general more sparsely populated…in other words, they are already self-isolated to a large degree. So the appropriate political decisions regarding quarantine for those states might be different from those states that are more densely populated (more people per square mile). In my opinion, this really is a decision that is best left to the states, not to the federal government.
A second thought that came to me while writing this is that we perhaps ought to be setting up ways in which farmers, coal miners and oil/gas workers can be supplied with what they need while having minimal contact with other people. We need to keep them well…just as much as we need to keep our health care workers well. So, masks for doctors/nurses and also for farmers/oil field workers as our first priority? 
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/coronavirus-deaths-u-s-map-shows-number-fatalities-compared-confirmed-n1166966
https://www.google.com/search?q=populations+of+the+states&rlz=1C1GCEU_enUS821US823&oq=populations+of+the+&aqs=chrome.3.0j69i57j0l6.6793j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
I did edit it just a bit (and deleted more than I retained of the reply).
But I doubt you’ll like it any better.
Market rout leaves public pension funds nursing a nearly $1 trillion loss for fiscal 2020: Moody’s
“Without a dramatic bounceback of investment markets, 2020 pension investment losses will mark a significant turning point where the downside exposure of some state and local governments’ credit quality to pension risk comes to fruition because of already heightened liabilities and lower capacity to defer costs,” said Aaron. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-rout-leaves-public-pension-funds-nursing-a-nearly-1-trillion-loss-for-fiscal-2020-moodys-2020-03-24?mod=mw_latestnewsdid anyone listen to the latest Macrovoices episode with jim bianco… his comments about china’s covid19 numbers
Came across the attached, looked pretty good. Using clean HEPA vacuum bags was the part I liked the best.
https://gab.com/Matt_Bracken/posts/103879045525434585
