If you care about your health, and the role of science in shaping policy, this video is for you.
First, let me re-re-state that I am not political. At all.
This video is in support of science and is neither in support of or against any politician, bureaucrat, or political party. That said, Anthony Fauci’s recent Senate testimony was a hot mess of anti-scientific statements and (willful? Ignorant?) overlooking of known science.
While showing how he was deficient in his statements I present the science that supports views directly opposite to his testimony. Herd immunity is discussed. T-cell cross-reactivity, and how the NIAID/NIH/CDC/FDA are still not recommending that everyone take Vitamin D. It’s truly a shameful moment for medicine and science. It’s the triumph of ego, politics and money over compassion and doing the right thing.
In this video you will learn that:
Herd immunity seems to have been achieved, mainly in lower economic countries (a.k.a. “third world”)
That t-cell cross-reactivity with the common cold coronaviruses is indeed a very real thing (according to the NIH’s own scientists)
That adequate Vitamin D levels are associated with a halving of the rate of Covid-19 mortality
That Fauci confuses correlation with causation – a big no-no in the world of science.
It really shouldn’t be this confused at this point. But it is, and not because the science is muddled.
I’m pretty certain that the Youtube algos will shut this video down, unsubscribe people, etc. All because I’m focusing on the science and daring to think for myself and use logic. Those are no-nos in this Brave New World.
I am really seeing something really wrong going on that is obvious and way out of whack.First, lets talk about sweden. I am not sure if their lack of NPIs are affecting anything. I would not say it would prove or disprove anything about the virus and how many have been infected or imply any sort of herd immunity.
Lets more focus on what the heck is going on with this second wave… The so called second wave. Where we have more infections but less deaths. People are at a lost to explain what is going. The only real suggestion is a lot more people have had this and its a lot less deadly than it first appeared. I am going to blow that last statement out of the water and get back to standard rational rather than wishful politization.
This disease has become less deadly, only for two reasons. 1. Those becoming infected are much much younger. 2. we have better standard of care.
1 is a much greater factor right now. Young people have pretty much said screw the NPI rules. AND the old people are safe harboring on their own. AS i continue to do, as I am sure Dr Martenson is doing. As are all the older, sick and obese people I know.
I want to bring another to point as we speak about the progression of sweden with their beliefs about NPI… The state has pretty much admitted to survival of the fittest. So, even if they have no policies, you think those at risk are not taking protections? of course they are/. Additionally, regarding spread there. It should be known that more than 50% of all house holds in sweden are 1 person. So, house hold size is extremely low compared to other countries. I would consider spread among household to be one of the greatest risks. Chris has also mentioned that there is also a greater social etiquette in general in swedes compared to countries like the US So, with all this considered it time to through out why their curve looks like everyone else when they have different policies… They really dont when you account for the differences in society behaviors. So now that we have dispatched with all that. lets get to the facts that we should be focusing on.
The disease is (falsely) less lethal than now - that originally thought because of the following:
standard of care is much better and more is understood.
people at the greatest risk have taken it upon themselves to protect themselves
people who are not at risk are spreading at high-rates
testing is much greater - as is the increase in false positives
So, those things in combination can explain easily that seemingly irrational curve we have been trying to figure out.
But more importantly , with all that said, we have forgotten how deadly these disease is really to those at risk. It is as big of problem as it has always been for those. We are not near herd immunity because the death rate has fallen.. Its only due to those are infecting and spreading ( young .) and better standard of care.
Lastly and probably more importantly. We are nowhere near herd immunity when you account for all those factors. AND we have over-looked that just because you dont die and have mild or asymptomatic disease, things are all ok. Ultimately, the data shows that fully 91% of covid survivors have long-term non resolving conditions related to their infection.. with over 76% saying that have chronic fatigue. And over 25% saying that have cognitive difficulties. Its time to realize, its not ok to get this at any age.. In fact , I argue a dead elderly person with many health conditions is a far preferable out-come than a 26 year old new mom or dad, that cannot work ever again.
Lets dispel with notion that there is some peak that mirror over the world and that there is some sort of herd immunity.. Its not happening and its not close.. Just go to one wedding one restaurant.. and 5o people sick with symptoms and infecting all their daily household and work contacts. It still happening . look at notre dame football. ( one meal )
for reference just look at the following growth chart of my county........ 600 cases at the end of June, 6000 and the end of aug and not even end of sept and 10000. wave one over?? already happened?? I am not sure what math and charts people are looking at but I assure its not close to accurate. We did not hit herd immunity , not even close. and even if everyone had it , you are still not immune.. Trust me , I will bet my life on this.. AND I am certain all are wrong on this. I am not sure where and how they are taking the data.. BUT it is not real and it not taken in proper context. I am not making an argument for or against NPIs as i said it does not matter what the govt does.. the people will act according to their own current environment.. no government mandates required.. I am taking action.. and has nada to do with my government.
[caption id="attachment_584381" align="alignnone" width="1024"] My county growth rate[/caption]
The nicest possible face I could put on Fauci’s actions is that he is an utterly sociopathic weasel. He is responsible for the deaths of tens of thousands of Americans, due to negligence in reporting to us what “the science” tells us about how to prevent COVID-19. He talks only about washing hands, wearing a mask, hiding in the basement, and waiting for a vaccine.
It turns out, the data tells us there is are other - really effective - things we can do, the very least of which is supplementing with vitamin-D. That alone cuts risk by 50%.
Fauci is in a leadership role. Why is he playing games with the lives of Americans in this way? We need an investigation: what did he know, and when did he know it. Search warrants, compelled testimony, and if his phone ends up magically wiped, well that’s obstruction of justice and we drop him in the tank for 5 years.
Ultimately, we need accountability. From him, and from his entire organization. Why have they been lying to us, and how long have they been doing it? And why? We could kickstart the process by filing a FOIA request for any and all emails, papers, and documents within the NIAID discussing vitamin-D supplementation and COVID-19. A FOIA request isn’t difficult to file. I’ve actually done it before.
As for Chris, he is probably much less worried because (I’m guessing) he now has two things:
a supply of apple-flavored horse dewormer, and
a supply of vitamin-D.
With these two things, and armed with the recent data, he has cut his risk of having a severe COVID-19 outcome by (my guess) 95%. This is “better than vaccine” level of protection. So of course he is less worried. Wouldn’t you be?
New facts = new viewpoint. That’s how Chris works.
RandomMike-
Sure he does. Fauci loves vitamin-D. Vitamin-D might be more effective than a vaccine, especially for old people, or fat people, both types of people who do not generate great immune responses from vaccinations. [41% of the US population is obese; 15% are elderly, both groups are unusually vitamin-D deficient. Both groups are much more vulnerable to COVID-19, probably for this reason].
So what action does Fauci take? Fauci mentions it in passing in an interview, then moves right back to the CDC’s recommendations:
“wash your hands, wear a mask, hide in the basement, and wait for the vaccine.”
Several posters are clearly very bright, have studied these topics at lengths, and have well developed conclusions. May I request posters supply links to supporting evidence and sources. A strong opinion without supporting data is just an assertion.
(My barber, when I was a boy, had strong opinions about EVERYTHING and would assert them, as he cut your hair, with absolute conviction. I would puzzle about how he came to such certainty about so many topics!)
NordickJack, you mention “my country.” Which country is that?
And everyone: Graphs are hard to read on PP as the browser shrinks them. We need to be able to go to the source page and see the graph clearly. Also, we need to be able to see the article and information from which the graph is made.
What is herd immunity?
Gompertz function and Swedens Cumulative Death Rate
The Gompertz function begins with the familiar “hockey stick” shape of exponential growth as each infected in turn infect an average of 3 more people (using the example of Ro=3). But at some, the exponential growth rate begins to be tempered by some other factors. Such as decreasing density of disease susceptible individuals that come into contact with the already infected. The growth tapers off and the hockey stick changes shape, coming to level off. That is, cumulative death rate tapers off. This is what we see with Sweden. You can still get infected in Sweden, but the rate of new infections (at the population level) is at a trickle, no longer a flood. Herd immunity does not mean that the individual is safe. It is a population-based statistical phenomenon.
From Worldometer (halfway down the page). Sweden’s cumulative deaths graph
The variability hypothesis for herd immunity brought to this forum by DaveF [DaveF where is that source article??] some months ago suggests that herd immunity is reached in pockets, but NOT uniformly throughout a whole population. The nurse who rides a crowded subway to and from work might be the center of one such pocket where enough immunity is established within a few weeks that ongoing infections continue only at a trickle, but no longer a flood. (The individual can still get infected, but the numbers aren’t high from a population perspective.) While an isolated farm community just a few mile away would be in another pocket --one without herd immunity.
The above linked article mentions higher levels of immunity in densely packed Mumbai slums.
Here we demonstrate that individual variation in susceptibility or exposure(connectivity) accelerates the acquisition of immunity in populations. More susceptible and more connected individuals have a higher propensity to be infected and thus are likely to become immune earlier. Due to this selective immunisation, heterogeneous populations require less infections to cross their herd immunity thresholds than homogeneous (or not sufficiently heterogeneous) models would suggest.
We integrate continuous distributions of susceptibility or connectivity in otherwise basic epidemic models for COVID-19 and show that as the coefficient of variation increases from 0 to 4, the herd immunity threshold declines from over 60% to less than 10%. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v1.full.pdf
Note that lockdowns have the unfortunate effect of turning “heterogeneous populations” into “homogeneous populations”. I.e. more people end up getting infected due to lockdowns - although it takes a lot longer for this process to take place.
COVID-19 may have a lower mortality rate in these three countries...than in high income countries, due to differences in immune response, prior exposure to coronaviruses, disease characteristics or other factors.
"... due to differences in immune response, prior exposure to coronaviruses ..."
This is the "no-brainer" I've been waiting for: I have this abiding suspicion that the reason we haven't seen the devastating effects in the Third World that I would have expected, nor a holocaust among our own homeless population for that matter, has to do with natural immune responses long-tuned by less sterile conditions of daily life.
Part of that, of course, has to do with multi-generational Darwinism: those with systems too fragile for a more harsh environment than we wealthy First Worlders are accustomed to living within die young; those meeting some minimal natural threshold thrive and reproduce. Perhaps, where we have successfully contravened that ongoing generational selectivity we turn out to be more health-fragile - rather like coddled hot house flowers.
It will be ironic - but, imo, expected - if it turns out that because we overly sterilize everything from infancy to advanced old age, from our hands and clothing to our food, homes, and workplaces, that we have weakened - perhaps, crippled - our immune systems. Hyper-sterilization includes our preoccupation with preventative inoculations that interrupt the proper and necessary exercise of our immune response. It wouldn't surprise me to discover that our preoccupation with killing "germs" contributes to our Honey Badger disease and mortality issues.
It will be ironic - but, imo, expected - if it turns out that because we overly sterilize everything from infancy to advanced old age, from our hands and clothing to our food, homes, and workplaces, that we have weakened - perhaps, crippled - our immune systems. Hyper-sterilization includes our preoccupation with preventative inoculations that interrupt the proper and necessary exercise of our immune response. It wouldn't surprise me to discover that our preoccupation with killing "germs" contributes to our Honey Badger disease and mortality issues.
A classic case of winning the battle, but losing the war.
According to Bruce Lipton, there's a reason why babies put everything nearby into their mouth - they are engaging in a self-vaccination program for all the nearby pathogens.
Great thesis.
If one is part of the herd ie. testing positive for anti-bodies and recovered from the illness, what is the rationale for wearing a splash mask if distancing is available? Is social signaling enough? Seems to this observer that masked people are compromising on distancing. I even saw someone pull off their mask to sneeze!
The death rates of babies are also the highest than any other group. surely, putting everything in mouth is helping.
Bad science huh? There's another interpretation to your data. Perhaps the babies who die are the ones getting exposed prior to contracting the ILIs that provide them that T-cell immunity.
Once through it - after age 1 - they've all been exposed to a number of ILIs, and as a result they are then largely immune to COVID-19.
If you dispute this - maybe you can come up with a "good science" explanation for why pre-toddler stage babies die, while just slightly older children appear to be largely immune.
they start with antibodies of mother and later develop their immune system, it is fragile but it is growing faster. babies can generate t-cells faster than adults or older people - so they have better chances of fighting or fight it out faster.
Net- Net: what is good for baby may not necessarily good for a 70 year old . So, i am very cautious of flippant ideas that somehow population needs to expose themselves to get this herd immunity. The whole XYZ theory is wooo woo and useless . Nobody can tell if you reached Herd immunity or not. They simply do not have data to support what X, Y and Z values are. According to CDC, 10% of US has been exposed to covid - did it stop ?? not at all. So, please don’t spread this herd immunity theories. Also as sandpuppy pointed out - herd immunity means nothing for an individual if they are exposed to virus. Unless, they have pre-existing immunity an individual will suffer of covid if they are exposed to virus - even if the population reached herd immunity (lets say 70%).
We do not know yet how covid interacts with immune system or why seemingly similar people one would have asympotmatic and other would be in ICU or have death. So, without the data and research - the best bet is stay calm, wear masks, take vitamin d etc…
tatagirl,
Those are all-cause death rates. They are highest for babies probably due to the higher death rate of those born prematurely as well as those born with birth defects, particularly life-threatening ones. Deaths for children and young adults are dominated by traumatic injuries and, sadly suicides and overdoses. Among older adults they are dominated by various diseases, especially cancer and heart disease.
Whoever is getting anxious about over sterile - please drink a glass of your toilet bowl to keep your immune system busy.
Heh. I think we can find at least one point somewhere between sterilization of every surface all the time and drinking toilet water - in the same way that we can find a point or two short of killing all insects in a garden to curtail predation by the harmful.
For myself, I want bugs and bacteria in my garden soil and on my plants, just as I want a diverse and healthy gut biome - something demonstrably lacking in the modern Western wo/man, and an increasingly-suspected contributor to modern maladies and diminished vitality (Sonnenberg and Sonnenberg of Stanford Med School, "The Good Gut").
I say: put down the Lysol; in most every case that's literally overkill. But also avoid the toilet water.
My county growth rate[/caption]
