[quote=Rector]
BTW what would you do if Gold were to jump to $6,500 by year's end? Would you sell it and get back into paper?
Rector
[/quote]
That's exactly what I'll do. Convert to paper and payoff my mortgage. That would be my bailout! With all other major preps complete I'd sell at $6,500 in a heartbeat.
The way things are lookin', though, I've got quite a few more mortgage payments to make before that dream comes true. Meanwhile, just keep swimming …
…but I would stop paying my mortgage and live rent free as I built the log cabin of my dreams. Literally, I would build it myself, on Lake front property I own just meters away to State lands in Black Lake, Michigan. I would fish, and hunt, and have roaring fires in a walk in fireplace. A bear rug on the floor and candle lit recliner to work at with my lap top. I would go all clean but scraggly, beard, dogs, double barrel over the mantle, Colt 45 cal strapped to my thigh. NO QUESTION about this. I would do it now but half my investments I figure are gone. If I could sell the Gold now knowing I had what should be coming to me I would have done all of this yesterday. No complaints Folks, I'm fine no matter what. The here and now appeals to me just as much.BOB
"Individuals are long term investors only as long as the markets are rising. Despite endless warnings, repeated suggestions and outright recommendations - getting investors to sell, take profits and manage your portfolio risks is nearly a lost cause as long as the markets are rising. Unfortunately, by the time the fear, desperation or panic stages are reached it is far too late to act and I will only be able to say that I warned you."
Gold will be sold and becomes a better BUY. Just understand that the physical metal is rare and finite. Is money, and has purchasing power world wide so what's the difference really between Reserve currency and Gold/Silver.?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-20/guest-post-visualizing-vince-farrells-10-investing-rules
BOB
As round two of the credit crisis washes ashore we should expect distressed persons to unload gold to pay off other debts. If true, this should make it a buyers market for the next year or so. It is quite possible one of these distressed players is doing a programmed stepped sell to not panic market.
regarding the release of the January Fed minutes today. It looks like they may be considering easing off the spigot before the labor/inflation targets are hit. I'm guessing this would put increasing downward pressure temporarily on PM's, but since I'm a newbie as it relates to PM's I'll defer to Chris/Adam and the rest of you who have followed the PM market much longer than I have. What are everyone's thoughts here?
Wade
The debasement of currency is gathering pace, and yet Gold and Silver are falling. Not trapped in a narrow band but actually going down! This is so counterintuitive that it can only be manipulation on a grand scale.I don't like conspiracy theories but this one really is screaming out. If this is a genuine market correction it wouldn't behave like this, and with all the governments printing like crazy, the prices should be rising.
If you buy and hold PMs regardless of the paper price you have nothing to worry about.I'm buying on dips. I see them as a gift!
I think it is just a Dog and Pony Show to make everyone think the FED is on top of things. No way can the FED stop buying US T-Bills. Who else would buy?
…the Fed are at their wits end. I believe many of them are voicing genuine concerns that only our Government leaders, specifically Congress needs to take a leadership role in. I hope that Congress lets all those Sequestration cuts happen. We must begin dealing with our Debt and Spending. The Fed will still do what they do but I really believe they are scared. It certainly isn't hard to see why either.
BOB
This is a great read… .then look at the comments to see what others think about our elected leaders.
Excerpt;
The week of February 11, 2013 saw one of the most persistent, concentrated and vicious attacks on precious metals prices during the entire GENERATION -long bankster-orchestrated price rigging campaign. Prices suffered repeated, waterfall declines every single day, and often multiple times per day, on precisely zero news that might have explained them. In other words, these price raids were outright, collusive and pre-meditated slaughters, conducted one after another after another. As financial market experts know, such price action is totally unnatural and illogical; no legitimate, for-profit seller in their right mind dumps supply onto a market in this fashion, unless they know for a fact that their price raid will work, and continue to work. This is the case when the price manipulator controls the market. While we are told that price fixing is illegal, this is obviously false because certain well-connected elites get away with it whenever they want, and for decades at a time. If a cabal can manipulate a large, global market such as gold, it can steal staggering sums of money.
…I will admit that our leaders have been MIA. I have no faith at all except at some point they have to do something, don't they? I say this with my head tucked in between my shoulders (think turtle). Then when you said it's on us I got all happy inside as that is really my wish anyways. That the vote will count and we hold who we put in office accountable but that will mean some street action, as in protests, and loud ones. Not violent, just a good peaceful, well attended shout out. "Hell No I'm Not Taking It Any More".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dib2-HBsF08
Be Good Jim
BOB
"So far the Keynesian beauty is winning the contest and I am seriously starting to doubt my beliefs. Appealing to "manipulation" strikes me to be a little like a Christian believer blaming it on Satan. Maybe there is manipulation, maybe there is a Satan too."It seems very fantastic doesn't it, however I would like to suggest you reach your own opinions from facts independantly verified, and caution you about confirmation bias. I keep coming back to this blog, mostly because the facts talked about here are confirmed by independant facts sourced from other areas. In an effort to avoid confirming my own fears I try to read counter opinions, or articles in contrast with what we read here. The sad fact is that the this site is reasoned, articulate, and generally seems to be correct. It's sad because of the picture it paints of other sources and the pin's it pokes into main stream authority. It's no longer causes cognitive dissonance when i can't understand why gold is falling in an age of money printing, it just makes me feel sad for the people who aren't yet aware of the state the world is entering. I would like to suggest that every time you experience dissonance when reading an article, sit down and look at it with reason and try to find the problems with it. Chris and Adam would probably welcome a reasoned reply to their article. For what it is worth, I can't find an issue with this one at all. It's not the 1st time I have read this theme, from memory there was an article that said the same thing (may have been a GATA one). They said that on a year on year basis, there is a systemic patern emerging that a clever trader could use to make money. Good luck.
The short answer is, monetary deflation in the eurozone, and concurrent with that, a still-intact faith in the central bankers to "make everything come out right."
Monetary deflation (a contraction in the amount of money & credit) is easy to see on a chart. Its real, it exists, and it is happening right now in Europe. The data on money and credit is helpfully provided by the ECB itself, every month. Right now, it is declining. Banks in europe are withdrawing money from the economy, and the governments in europe are not borrowing enough to make up for it. This happened also back in late 2011 when the eurozone banks were instructed to reduce their balance sheets - gold had troubles at that time too. Deflation in the banking system means the amount of borrowed money that can be wagered on leveraged financial assets will decline - and gold (whose price is set by the futures market) is one of those assets. While there may also be manipulation, such manipulation is much easier to execute on when a big chunk of the speculative money that might be willing to go long gold is sidelined by deflation. In some sense, a fair number of the players in the game on the long side are effectively off the field right now due to deflation.
At the same time, physical gold acts as a hedge against government misconduct. By misconduct I mean capital controls, intentional devaluation, confiscation, sovereign default and so on. Physical gold is cash that the government can't monkey with. Its a "rich person's internationally accepted safe haven" - if push comes to shove, rich people can load their car up with gold and drive across the border to a place that is engaged in less misconduct, so money tends to migrate to gold during bad times as a rich person's insurance policy. Yet currently, the faith in governments, especially in europe, is still relatively strong as demonstrated by the spreads on peripheral bonds. Basically the faith in Dragi to "do whatever it takes" still exists. So the physical demand isn't making up for the loss in leveraged demand due to deflation.
So right now we're in a twilight world - deflation in the eurozone is going to cause ever more serious economic contraction as well as dropping asset prices as money gets sucked out of the economy, while faith remains in Dragi to rescue the situation somehow. While deflation happens and faith in Dragi remains, gold will likely not do well. It won't last - it can't, simply because deflation and resulting economic contraction will eventually result in the inability of governments to make good on their debts, which will lead directly to either default or a massive increase in government misconduct. And that will spike the price of gold once again.
Of course nothing ever moves straight down. There will likely be a bounce in gold coming…soon I suspect. But without the return of leveraged money or a massive collapse in confidence in central banking, I don't see the price of gold taking flight.
That's my opinion anyway.
I found this link on iTulip
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/9881410/China-loves-the-US-dollar-again-as-America-roars-back.html
Great buying opportunity yesterday. I couldn't resist. No worries.
And Jim. You're going to lose a little in the short term (our bet on the silver price as of March 2013) but win big in the long term, as you know. It's just your timing that was off. My money is still on 2015 for the start of the biggest move (with possible extension to 2017). We'll see. Ultimately, it's all about this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J7Z5BFAvoY
When the top finally blows off this PM pressure cooker… you know I will be there : ). PM me an address and I will make good on my bet. Of note, Bitcoin has now broken $30; https://mtgox.com/
Free market, bankerless, non-fiat money is an amazing thing to watch. I know that many don't care for it… but the market continues to speak.
From JSMINESET:
"Anyone with any sense of history has already come to the conclusion the public has always been and will always be taken to the cleaners by the Street.
The only place where one can make a sound judgment call is in the Gold Market. Just buy and HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLD! As long as money is being printed to keep the governments afloat, nothing but nothing in this world will alter the end result. You can’t print gold. Sure, you can go naked short in the paper markets or divert investment money from physical into the ETF’s (which in my opinion were created exactly for that purpose). They have also been accused of supplying shares, in lieu of physical which they or the COMEX couldn’t deliver. All I can say is that any new product offered to the public must be shunned. It certainly wasn’t created for you. But when the billionaires of this world are stockpiling the stuff and Central Banks are shoring up their currencies for an eventual global monetary collapse, you simply can’t lose by holding the real deal.
Remember, in 2004 the Rothschilds gave up their prestigious position as the Morning and Afternoon London Price Fixer in Gold and Silver. When asked why, on the financial network in an interview, the response was “there was no money to be made in those markets anymore”(sic). They are dead markets. It was exactly at that time that gold and silver began rearing their heads in the beginning of a massive upwards trajectory. AS the Price Fixers, the Rothschilds were forbidden to partake in holding massive amounts of these metals. They surely must have seen something UNBELIEVABLE on the horizon, for them to give up such a prestigious position. They wouldn’t do this for a small pop in price.
Hold a gold coin your hand the next time you feel like investing in something. It doesn’t lie to you. It’s solid and feels it’s worth. It’s honest as the day is long. And more importantly, it won’t make a fool of you (it hasn’t for thousands of years) nor will it prevent you from sleeping at night. Pleasant dreams all!
CIGA Wolfgang"
After yesterday's aberration when gold & silver rose slightly (shocking, I know!), we are back to our regular 8am takedown this morning:
I found this telegraph report rather a good balanced article:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100022953/golds-death-cross-is-a-buy-signal-for-china/
Reassuring as well.
Can you eat gold or silver? Heat your house with it? Can cultivate your garden beds with it? Will it generate heat or electricity? Will it generate hot water? Will it keep you warm in the winter? Is it a good insulator? Can you repair tools with it? Can you prepare foods with it? Wiill it make you smarter?
Will it attract thieves? Will it occupy the mind with worry about it's value? Will it build trust amoungst friends? Will those with power covet it and try and control its value?
Value is in the eye of the beholder