Chris has been frequently critical of our leaders’ bungled responses throughout the coronavirus pandemic.
So today he turns the tables on himself and asks: Well, what would I do if I were in charge?
He walks through the major policies he would embrace to address both the health and economic crises we’re currently dealing with. Everything from resourcing the national covid-19 response, to keeping the public better educated and informed, to pursuing a bottom-up (vs the current top-down) stimulus program, to building a new vision for the post-pandemic future.
He also shares the continued challenge Peak Prosperity faces from the mainstream media, who remain committed -- by intent or by laziness -- to painting our non-partisan science-based analysis as crackpot fringe hucksterism. The latest example of which comes from The New York Times who should, quite frankly, be better than this shoddy style of 'journalism'.
Whatever the reason for their low regard, we will continue to produce these daily videos for as long as they’re needed. Or put in other words, for as long as the major media outlets continue to fail to provide intelligent, honest, unbiased analysis of the breaking developments that are impacting our lives.
All logic would show that I would do the same thing. Why don’t the people in charge? Is everyone corrupt? or are people that stupid? Well, my experience tells me both. So, yeah… dumb and criminal. I don’t expect much. I have lowered my expectations for mankind. So much so, I am not sure their demise would not be a good thing.
So, HCQ could still be a game changer. It’s good, though, that you said there was no randomisation but you perhaps didn’t place as much importance on the fact that none of the patients was known to have Covid-19, despite mentioning it. Given all of the possible problems, I don’t think this is a study which should point to HCQ’s being effective, though it doesn’t do the opposite either.
Sweden is 10th in the per capita deaths list. It has way more deaths than other countries with cases in the same ballpark. Its cases seem to be growing exponentially, though not quite as quickly as a few weeks ago.
So Sweden doesn’t seem like a good example to follow. But, maybe if they’d all worn masks, it might have been.
Hi Chris,
Excellent video!
With respect to the “left-right” model: being raised in a very strict religious community in the Netherlands, I could not help noticing a large similarity between this conservative community and groups of leftist students I met during my years at University: both groups were very similar in their dogmatism and inflexibility, and both made me feel equally ill at ease.
So, reading this article in 2019 really struck a chord. It was based on research that supported and explained my own observations and conclusion based on interactions with these groups:
“New research provides evidence that extreme partisanship on both the political left and right is related to cognitive inflexibility. Our findings, which appear in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, indicate that people’s political identity is influenced by how they process basic information”.
Btw: the conclusion I drew in my youth, is that you cannot argue with people who perceive reality differently from you. I do respect individuals, but I try not to get too much involved with groups of likeminded people because I find them truly scary.
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I agree. The CFR is consistently increasing. I would not be surprised if they are still in their “cluster-cluster-cluster” stage. Why?
When you go to the worldometer site you will notice an extreme seasonality for Sweden in the data for new cases and deaths. This tells me that indeed there is a cultural aspect because the highs and the lows are rather extreme. It also indicates how infectious this virus is. Because the number of daily new cases still rises, more and more people are getting infected and more and more people will die.
If the data of New York has any thruth in it, the IFR (infection fatality ratio = number of deaths/number of infected) is 0.5%:
21% has antibodies, population 19.4 million, 20.800 died: 2.08/(19.4x0.21).
Please note: the IFR of the flu is less than 0.02%. Also note that the honey badger virus is at least 25 times more deadly than the flue.
This would mean that 30.000 people will die in Sweden in a relative short timeframe. It is “just” a different choice they make and maybe their hospital system will be able to cope with it.
In the case of the US this would mean ~ 1 million deaths in a short time if the “Swedish model” is applied. Probably more due to the less healthy US population.
So, the Swedish model might work for Sweden, but for larger countries it will most definitely lead to utter chaos and mayhem.
Take care!
So when did those two things become a bad thing???
Chris, I have been following your channel since January.
I came across a video upload from another guy over at NoNonsenseForex just a short while ago.
I have been following VP over at NNFX for 2 years and he hadn’t uploaded a video in months, then he came along and uploaded a video named “making the most of a bear market” - (I am in no way affiliated to him,) but in this video, he credits you and your channel, with the work you had been putting out on coronavirus for his early preparation.
VP went on to recommend people pop over to your channel if they want to be 5 weeks ahead of what mainstream media is saying,
The crazy thing is, he is over in Las Vegas, I’m down in South Africa, and we both had early warnings because of you, I had already been watching your channel, when he posted a video recommending people see you.
I didn’t need to go buy vitamin C, multi vitamins, specialty teas and herbs and spices during a storm of human beings inside stores and pharmacies when the panic buying hit, and the craziest thing of all this is
Right now, South Africa is entering its 5th week of total national lock down, and only 1 week ago, the very store I got to buy my supplies from months in advance (February), was closed down for mass cleaning.
26 of the stores employees tested positive for covid 19, all of which Asymptomatic, which apparently came as a shock to the pharmacy chains leadership somehow. They must have been reading Diones shoe blog because it came as no surprise to me as a consequence of mass panic buying and similar weird early stage rules where people in stores were not allowed to wear PPE.
so this is when early warning hits home. Stores around you are closing daily because of essential staff all coming out positive with covid.
This is just in response to the early warning critique, don’t even get me started on how beneficial knowing a pandemic was about to hit my country was for arranging my positions in trading.
So a sprinkle of financial guru in there, is more than earned too. Your videos saved me a lot of money I’d have other wise been down on right now.
When I became aware of the situation in January, I immediately started paying attention to early warning signs on my trading system, and took HIGH note of them.
its funny how we all forgot that brexit happened this year too, which was the first shock to the market, and while everybody thought the brexit wobble was the worst for the year, I was preparing for a total disaster on the stock exchange. And well, considering oil producers are paying people to take oil away from them, I’d say that’s quite disastrous,
In no way did you speak about, or endorse gold and silver affiliates, the stock exchanges or what kind of positions people should be taking, in any of those markets.
However your work, allowed those with fast adjustment times, to Buckle up and get ready for the poop storm that was on its way to a financial market near you.
So, from me anyway.
A huge thank you.
I hope one day, I get to see NoNonsenseForex and Peak Prosperity do a video together.
DaveDD, what figures are you using? We don’t know how many people have been infected in New York state but the Worldometers web site shows 268,581 cases, with 20,861 deaths. That works out to around 8% death rate.
I’m unable to find a link to the results from Brazil about HCQ that you talked about. Could you please provide a link for that study result? You said you got it in a tweet, but is it backed up with an article, or a report?
For information: l’Institut Pasteur has published at least one new paper where they have done testing in l’Oise where an outbreak (cluster) caused this département (area) to become a hot spot. The press article went on to say that they found over 20% of the population with anti-bodies for COVID-19. Other areas of France have vitually no herd immunity. The other thing that was mentionned was that they tested two different types of tests for anti-bodies - both worked extremely well and that commercial production could now be started.
My thought for this morning goes to a video that my wife shared - it depicts an African woman, speaking in French, pleading to her brothers and sisters to treat COVID-19 like Malaria. From her experience she goes into some of the details: fever, sweating, sore throat, coughing… she says it’s just like Malaria. I saw it once - smiled, as it is almost childlike, because we know the two are very different and I put the idea aside - until this morning.
If you are African and you have had Malaria - it comes back when you do not expect it like a zona, herpes - so what do you do?
You take your Malaria pills and it gives you relief - it goes away again.
She keeps on insisting that it’s no big deal - you treat it like Malaria - take a hot drink with a pressed lemon, honey and it goes away.
Dr Didier told us this. He was born in Africa. People think nothing of taking HCQ to get over a bout of malaria.
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
In French Un tiens vaut mieux que deux tu l’auras. One which is yours is worth more than two that you might have.
The simple question: WHAT IS WRONG WITH US? (that we know this but don’t practise this?)
So to close: Chris - Trump or No Trump (I am a bridge player) I fall into another category - the mistrustful guy who has seen so many devious people, think Machiavel types, that when I see someone like Dr Didier strut and fret his hour upon the stage I rise up and cheer a very loud ovation.
I encourage anecdotal “témoignage” - it is all we have for the present time - our authorities TPTB have polluted the information circuits - our job is to expose and fetter them out.
African témoignage, I hope this works: https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&ik=359427bfe9&attid=0.1&permmsgid=msg-a:r7360564885119990937&th=171ab7829a9ecc7b&view=att&disp=safe&realattid=171ab7774bcd4d2637e1
Hi Sofistek,
There are two indicators. The Case Fatality Ratio, or CFR, is the ratio of the deaths and the diagnosed cases. So you are right: for NY that would be something around 8%.
The arguments of the naysayers tend to be that this is not worse than the flu. They use the CFR of the flu, 0.1%-0.2%, and they say that the number of infected with SARS-CoV-2 is higher than the number of diagnosed. For example,
21% of the New Yorkers have antibodies they say, in other words, ~4 million New Yorkers have been infected.
There are 20,861 deaths, so, 20,861 x 100%/4million = 0.5%.
Next they compare this number, 0.5%, with the CFR of the flu 0.2%.
But,... the ratio involving the number of infected is not the CFR, it is the IFR, the Infection Fatality Ratio. They compare apples and oranges. If you do it like this, you also have to compare agains the IFR of the flu
A recent flu pandemic was the 2009 H1N1. The IFR of this flu is estimated to be 0.02% [source], while the CFR is less than 1%. So assuming that the CFR for the 2009 H1N1 equals the CFR of the seasonal flu, for New York,
CFR: 8% versus 0.2% --> COVID19 is 40 times deadlier (For H1N1 CFR<1, this would be between 20X (US) and 8X),
IFR: 0.5% versus 0.02% --> COVID19 is 25 times deadlier than H1N1.
Even if the 2009 H1N1 was a "mild virus" leading to ~200.000 deaths, and we would correct for it (multiply CFR and IFR by a factor of 3), SARS-COV-2 is still 10 times deadlier than the normal flu with yearly between 290.000 and 650.000 estimated deaths.
I notice that the CFR and the IFR are continuously mixed up in (social) media. The IFR is very difficult to estimate. The CFR is less complicated to measure: the percentage of the officially diagnosed persons that die due to any symptom of the disease.
Have a great day!
https://youtu.be/aCA2iERDNgQ
Here is a video that I found.
Oddly smokers seem to do much better than non smokers in not getting infected.
I have not heard anyone talking about this but for our family (and many French) we use essential oils (homéopathie) to protect from seasonal viruses. Before you say ridiculous - I have been very prone to brochitis (worst case), angine, bad colds etc
There are several essential oils which have anti-septic qualities - which I take orally. It was recommended by la Companie des Sens (à Lyon) to takefor COVID-19 (applied to your wrist - I take it orally) 50/50 Ravintsara, Tee Tree. It was also recommended Laurier Noble for inhalation - you can put it in a diffuseur in your room.
Points from the video:
41% of the people who frequented the high school (lycée) school children, teachers, other personnels - were infected by COVID-19
In the families of the students 11% of the persons presented anti-bodies COVID-19.
5% of this population - mostly young people - had to be hospitalized . There were no deaths from the people who frequented this school.
More than 85% of people who complained about loss of taste or smell were infected by the virus.
For smokers the risk of getting infected was 75% inferior than non-smokers.
So - my message - don’t smoke, take something which will sterilize the genome in its passage through mouth and throat. Alderberries for others, wink, wink, nod, nod.
He says that we need at least 60% before herd immunity can be considered attained.
Last point - I have heard that the French “vaccine” being studied is in the form of a patch - think nicotine patch and tuberculosis scratch.
Interesting perspective!
You are not allowed to dissent on-line because you will be censored or in person because you will be arrested. https://youtu.be/MuuA0azQRGQ
In warm-and-humid climates, the virus - most likely - does not transmit much outdoors. My evidence is observation in the place where I live. We have few cases, and fewer deaths.
People in these climates can probably go outside without much of a problem.
Especially in sunlight, which as we know now, also kills the virus pretty fast. And if people wear masks, going outside under these conditions is most likely no problem at all.
And - lo and behold - here’s a reference to a paper from China that suggests that outdoor transmission is quite rare. People got the virus indoors, and mostly, at home. And that’s cold-ass China.
So we could say, stay TF at home really means, you should avoid staying indoors as much as possible.
That suggests beaches, parks, sidewalks, are all just fine. Especially if its a warm day.
Doesn't that sound nice? Going for a walk, or a bicycle ride, or a hike, on a warm spring day? It helps even more that we know now, "outside" is not how people catch the virus.
Who knew?
All logic would show that I would do the same thing. Why don’t the people in charge? Is everyone corrupt? or are people that stupid?
Years ago, Peak Prosperity ran a survey of their members personality types. As I recall, something like 84% of the people who responded to the survey fell into the INT* personalities under Myers Briggs personality types. INT* personality types are atypical in that they make decisions based on a rational, rather than emotional basis. INT*s make up something like 4% of the population. The rest of the population essentially make decision, at least partially, on non-rational inputs.
People prefer to believe what the prefer to be true.
-Sir Francis Bacon
Or, if you prefer:
Most people like to hear good news about their bad habits.
My wife and I are INTJs. She's borderline and I'm hardcore INTJ. That modest difference, alone, makes consensus more difficult to achieve.
LOL
I like the cut of your jib, Chad!
After my stint as financial guru and after my most recent stunt as a pandemic early warning Youtube grifter, my plan is to become an energy healer of celebrities.
Hopefully more remunerative than writing a shoe blog.
Seriously, thanks for the morning laugh.
Even more seriously, the shocks in the global oil markets have me quite concerned. The path I see? (downward price shock) –> (supply shock as wells shut in and capital withdrawn for E&P) –> (eventual upward price shock)
There are only so many shocks a precariously derived system of credit can absorb before it breaks…
