Adam and Chris, great job once again. I absolutely loved the tutorial on the left-right agnosticism. Personally been there since 2009. The diagram using Integrity as the top and Chaos as the down, or as the antithesis of Integrity was absolutely brilliant! Loved it.
I agree. The CFR is consistently increasing. I would not be surprised if they are still in their “cluster-cluster-cluster” stage. Why?
When you go to the worldometer site you will notice an extreme seasonality for Sweden in the data for new cases and deaths. This tells me that indeed there is a cultural aspect because the highs and the lows are rather extreme. It also indicates how infectious this virus is. Because the number of daily new cases still rises, more and more people are getting infected and more and more people will die.
If the data of New York has any thruth in it, the IFR (infection fatality ratio = number of deaths/number of infected) is 0.5%:
21% has antibodies, population 19.4 million, 20.800 died: 2.08/(19.4×0.21).
Please note: the IFR of the flu is less than 0.02%. Also note that the honey badger virus is at least 25 times more deadly than the flue.
This would mean that 30.000 people will die in Sweden in a relative short timeframe. It is “just” a different choice they make and maybe their hospital system will be able to cope with it.
In the case of the US this would mean ~ 1 million deaths in a short time if the “Swedish model” is applied. Probably more due to the less healthy US population.
So, the Swedish model might work for Sweden, but for larger countries it will most definitely lead to utter chaos and mayhem.
Sweden's strategy is different in that the end goal is to end up with as few deaths as possible and not imposing restrictions that can't be upheld for months. Unfortunately we've had some setbacks - we failed at protecting the elderly enough - but we're still below the curve. One big problem for us here is the lag in data reporting which is terrible, if you look at our statistics you'll see that during saturday/sunday all numbers go down and then a big spike on monday. Another issue regarding most statistics site is that you can't go back and revise the number for a specific day, so it looks like we have a big spike in deaths when what actually happened was that the paperwork stacked up and was handled a specific day. But if you look at the official statistics for Sweden they go back and revise it all the time so it's more even. (https://fohm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/68d4537bf2714e63b646c37f152f1392)
And so far I think the cultural difference with Swedes managing social distancing so well is a big reason we haven't been in worse shape than we are. However, now that the heat is coming people are going out more so we still may end up with more restrictions...
Hi Stoff75,
Thanks for the background info regarding the registration in the weekend. This would imply that my suggestions about the cultural aspects are falsified. I truly hope that this will work out. I can imagine that after all is said and done, useful lesson will be learned for fiture pandemics.
Btw: I discovered that I can understand written Swedish!
Take care!
Instead of chaos I prefer the lower end of the scale to be called corruption. I appreciate the information from this site. I believe that informed people can make decisions based on good information.
I live in south Georgia which has one of the highest infection rates around(659 cases for every 100,000 people 5.7 percent fatality rate). We have gone back to work because I have 11 employees who are dependent on their paychecks. We are working in open spaces and everyone has a mask which was part of the job before the virus. We are working as safely as possible but will continue to work as long as there is something to do. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8198961/How-small-Georgia-city-one-worst-coronavirus-hotspots-country.html
...Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.
The recent Stanford University antibody study now estimates that the fatality rate if infected is likely 0.1 to 0.2 percent, a risk far lower than previous World Health Organization estimates that were 20 to 30 times higher and that motivated isolation policies.
In New York City, an epicenter of the pandemic with more than one-third of all U.S. deaths, the rate of death for people 18 to 45 years old is 0.01 percent, or 11 per 100,000 in the population. On the other hand, people aged 75 and over have a death rate 80 times that. For people under 18 years old, the rate of death is zero per 100,000.
Of all fatal cases in New York state, two-thirds were in patients over 70 years of age; more than 95 percent were over 50 years of age; and about 90 percent of all fatal cases had an underlying illness. Of 6,570 confirmed COVID-19 deaths fully investigated for underlying conditions to date, 6,520, or 99.2 percent, had an underlying illness. If you do not already have an underlying chronic condition, your chances of dying are small, regardless of age. And young adults and children in normal health have almost no risk of any serious illness from COVID-19.
Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.
We can learn about hospital utilization from data from New York City, the hotbed of COVID-19 with more than 34,600 hospitalizations to date. For those under 18 years of age, hospitalization from the virus is 0.01 percent per 100,000 people; for those 18 to 44 years old, hospitalization is 0.1 percent per 100,000. Even for people ages 65 to 74, only 1.7 percent were hospitalized. Of 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded "age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization." Even early WHO reports noted that 80 percent of all cases were mild, and more recent studies show a far more widespread rate of infection and lower rate of serious illness. Half of all people testing positive for infection have no symptoms at all. The vast majority of younger, otherwise healthy people do not need significant medical care if they catch this infection.
Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem.
We know from decades of medical science that infection itself allows people to generate an immune response — antibodies — so that the infection is controlled throughout the population by “herd immunity.” Indeed, that is the main purpose of widespread immunization in other viral diseases — to assist with population immunity. In this virus, we know that medical care is not even necessary for the vast majority of people who are infected. It is so mild that half of infected people are asymptomatic, shown in early data from the Diamond Princess ship, and then in Iceland and Italy. That has been falselyportrayed as a problem requiring mass isolation. In fact, infected people without severe illness are the immediately available vehicle for establishing widespread immunity. By transmitting the virus to others in the low-risk group who then generate antibodies, they block the network of pathways toward the most vulnerable people, ultimately ending the threat. Extending whole-population isolation would directly prevent that widespread immunity from developing.
Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.
Critical health care for millions of Americans is being ignored and people are dying to accommodate “potential” COVID-19 patients and for fear of spreading the disease. Most states and many hospitals abruptly stopped “nonessential” procedures and surgery. That prevented diagnoses of life-threatening diseases, like cancer screening, biopsies of tumors now undiscovered and potentially deadly brain aneurysms. Treatments, including emergency care, for the most serious illnesses were also missed. Cancer patients deferred chemotherapy. An estimated 80 percent of brain surgery cases were skipped. Acute stroke and heart attack patients missed their only chances for treatment, some dying and many now facing permanent disability.
Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.
The overwhelming evidence all over the world consistently shows that a clearly defined group — older people and others with underlying conditions — is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from COVID-19. Knowing that, it is a commonsense, achievable goal to target isolation policy to that group, including strictly monitoring those who interact with them. Nursing home residents, the highest risk, should be the most straightforward to systematically protect from infected people, given that they already live in confined places with highly restricted entry.
The appropriate policy, based on fundamental biology and the evidence already in hand, is to institute a more focused strategy like some outlined in the first place: Strictly protect the known vulnerable, self-isolate the mildly sick and open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions. This would allow the essential socializing to generate immunity among those with minimal risk of serious consequence, while saving lives, preventing overcrowding of hospitals and limiting the enormous harms compounded by continued total isolation. Let’s stop underemphasizing empirical evidence while instead doubling down on hypothetical models. Facts matter.
I reviewed the Brazil study and efforts to suppress it in yesterday’s thread, #33. There is a link to the paper preprint; https://peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-debunking-the-hydroxychloroquine-controversy/#comment-638187
This study is very strong evidence that HCQ works - one has to understand that the lack of randomization was due to the fact that the two groups (HCQ regimen or no) were determined by the patients willingness to accept the drug regimen. It was this factor that ended up defining the groups. The doctors were actually trying to save lives, not perform a study. It’s very clear that they saved lives in their elderly population;
HCQ regimen given < 7 days after symptom onset: Hospitalization rate = 1.17 %
HCQ regimen given > 7 days after symptom onset: Hospitalization rate = 3.2 %
No HCQ regimen: Hospitalization rate = 5.4 %
The Data Is In... Stop The Panic & End The Total Isolation*
Fri, 04/24/2020 - 09:25
Authored by Scott Atlas, M.D., op-ed via The Hill,The tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic appears to be entering the containment phase. Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than emphasizing hypothetical projections.
Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.
Fact 2: Protecting older, at-risk people eliminates hospital overcrowding.
Fact 3: Vital population immunity is prevented by total isolation policies, prolonging the problem. [delaying herd immunity].
Fact 4: People are dying because other medical care is not getting done due to hypothetical projections.
Fact 5: We have a clearly defined population at risk who can be protected with targeted measures.
[A] clearly defined group — older people and others with underlying conditions — is more likely to have a serious illness requiring hospitalization and more likely to die from COVID-19.
Summary
Strictly protect the known vulnerable,
self-isolate the mildly sick, and
open most workplaces and small businesses with some prudent large-group precautions.
* * *
Scott W. Atlas, MD, is the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the former chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center
----------
*and I see that THC0655 just posted this above. Great minds think alike.
The article that is part of this thread states “Fact 1: The overwhelming majority of people do not have any significant risk of dying from COVID-19.” They are referring to the exact same Stanford study that CM ripped apart a few videos ago" So if the 1st fact, is blatantly in error, we need to omit it from influencing any decisions.
Oh for heaven’s sake. This is what I’ve been trying to say for … days now.
Except somehow - oh I don’t know. I couldn’t quite say it nearly as well. Or I didn’t have the data. Or something.
Anyhow, yes. Seems right to me.
We followed Communist China down the rabbit hole on this one. I vote we climb back out into the sunlight again. Take prudent precautions for high risk individuals, offer free testing for anyone with symptoms, and treat immediately with the anti-virals that we know work - on an outpatient basis - and emerge back into the sunlight.
Very good Tony!! Do you speak French? Effectively I spoke about les huiles essentiels in post #8.
I have not heard anyone talking about this but for our family (and many French) we use essential oils (homéopathie) to protect from seasonal viruses. Before you say ridiculous – I have been very prone to brochitis (worst case), angine, bad colds etc
There are several essential oils which have anti-septic qualities – which I take orally. It was recommended by la Companie des Sens (à Lyon) to takefor COVID-19 (applied to your wrist – I take it orally) 50/50 Ravintsara, Tee Tree. It was also recommended Laurier Noble for inhalation – you can put it in a diffuseur in your room.
In this magazine, which is widely read with articles of good quality - is mentionned:
L’Artemisia annua, une plante aux vertus antipaludiques, couplée au Ravintsara, efficace contre les infections respiratoires, toutes deux cultivées sur la Grande Ile, en constituent l’essentiel. La recette, parait-il convoitée du Canada aux Etats-Unis en passant par l’Europe, aurait permis la guérison de deux malades du Covid-19 dans ce pays qui ne compte pas plus d’une centaine de cas. Pas plus vérifiable que la sévérité de l’épidémie sur l’île, confinée depuis un mois, l’information profite au plus jeune des chefs d’Etat africains, « qui surfe sur une vague populiste, utilise la naïveté et la grande pauvreté de sa population » confie, sous couvert d’anonymat, une source locale.
I have used Ravintsara for several years. I like many get a cold which drips down into the throat, which drips down again becoming a cough, and finishes in the Grande Finalé a bronchite. Ravintsara - I swear by it. But I use it with Eucalytus Radiata (normally) which is more oriented towards avoiding a cold. La Companie des Sens - which was started by a group of young entrepreneurs from the same business school as my daughter - has become a wonderful success. I am following their instructions to use Ravintsara with Tea Tree (half and half dosage - just a couple of drops). Tea Tree is more of a skin remedy - think of a sore throat - or also very good for a boil for example. Both all three of these oils can be taken orally - BUT - posologie French word for the quantity (dosage) and length of time to be taken. If you take a mixture of the two as suggested - a few drops a day is supposed to protect you.
The article talks about Artemisia annua - don't know it. This is not paludisme (malaria) - COVID-19. The three oils mentionned are strong disinfectants from natural substances purified in a laboratory environment. So by all means - maybe Chris or a designated person can contact them in English - remember we are locked down - and they are busy - as in orders overflowing. They do mail orders. Can't say for the States - don't see why not?
Hi, Chris. Thank you for your daily updates and for your integrity.
I live in Costa Rica. Just a comment about the example and photo of Costa Rica on minute 28. The photo is actually of the Chinese side of the meeting (because of the flag and because they are using facemasks). Costa Rican authorities has beeen doing many things right (be transparent, speak straight, work with centralized data, implement early nationwide measures, address the emotional part, set up financial help for the bottom income layer, etc). Our health minister (epidemiologist) is a very intelligent and strong leader who leads by example during his daily speaking on TV, but unfortunately wearing masks for citizens is not one of the endorsed measures (only for healthcare workers) so we are not using it massively yet, although more and more people are using it voluntarily.
As businesses are starting to open up again many people are going to feel apprehensive. As if some elected government employee is going to run into the and scream “you filthy business your killing people”!! To bad they won’t have a poster of, which was it the WHO or the CDC, that said masks and gloves weren’t effective.
The point being it’s incompetent, corrupt government managers that cause harm along with the hysterical media spreading fear - - not small business owners!
