https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20070912v1
- Overall IFR = 1.29%
- Under 60’s IFR = 0.05%
- Over 60’s IFR = 4.25%
Notes: - Based on initial outbreak area in Italy
- Not yet peer reviewed
The other stat we need to understand better is what the “Incidence Rate” is going to be for COVID-19 (eg the % that will get it). As a comparison:
- Spanish Flu = 33%
- Seasonal Flu (from low to high years) = 3-11%
As an example, if the COVID-19 Incidence Rate is 33% and the IFR is 1.29% that gives a Covid-19 Crude Death Rate of 0.43% (note: this does not calculate how long it take to get to 33%).
As a way of comparison, the Global Crude Death Rate (all causes) is 0.77% or 60 Million deaths pa. The crude death rate is defined as “the mortality rate from all causes of death for a population,” calculated as the “total number of deaths during a given time interval”
There are 4 numbers we need to know:
- asymptomatic illnesses
- symptomatic illnesses
- hospitalizations
- deaths
tth-
While I can actually buy the rationale for the 9/11 attack: pretty much the same as the pearl harbor attack. It was a dramatic event that, end of the day, didn’t change any element of US national power, while motivating the US to respond both politically and militarily.
That’s just not the case with SC2. I do not think any element of the US national security state would deliberately set out on a course of conduct that would inflict this level of economic (and thus, military) damage to the country.
The 9/11 story made sense. This one doesn’t.
For me, the lab coverup in Wuhan tells me all I need to know. Why stage a coverup, if no crime occurred?
Coverup tells us everything we need to know.
Amazing work, we all know what is going on, but you laid it out so well and put a nail in it. But , i am pretty logical, but this one out-right angered me even knowing what the gig is… These people are going to kill tens if not hundreds of thousands of americans to save their precious high dollar treatments.
Hi Sofistek,
The fault is on my side. I should have made the links explicit.
The seasonality in the Worldometers data is artificial. Stoff75 provided this information:
“Sweden’s strategy is different in that the end goal is to end up with as few deaths as possible and not imposing restrictions that can’t be upheld for months. Unfortunately we’ve had some setbacks – we failed at protecting the elderly enough – but we’re still below the curve. One big problem for us here is the lag in data reporting which is terrible, if you look at our statistics you’ll see that during saturday/sunday all numbers go down and then a big spike on monday. Another issue regarding most statistics site is that you can’t go back and revise the number for a specific day, so it looks like we have a big spike in deaths when what actually happened was that the paperwork stacked up and was handled a specific day. But if you look at the official statistics for Sweden they go back and revise it all the time so it’s more even. (https://fohm.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/68d4537bf2714e63b646c37f152f1392)
And so far I think the cultural difference with Swedes managing social distancing so well is a big reason we haven’t been in worse shape than we are. However, now that the heat is coming people are going out more so we still may end up with more restrictions…”
There is seasonality in the data if there is a regular pattern (up-down-up-down), like the air temperature curve over a year. This is typically one of the first things you want to check for in data.
Take care!
Face masks are simple, easily made, not sexy and certainly not high tech!
This article (https://medium.com/the-atlantic/the-real-reason-to-wear-a-mask-e6405abbc484) explains, why they work. It also notes that in the countries that have adopted a public policy of everyone wearing face masks, they have effectively kept their outbreaks under control.
This includes Hong Kong which is densely populated, close to the original source of the outbreak, and, as I understand it, not had stringent lock down provisions, but continued to work semi normally including general use of their public mass transit systems.
Therefore why are we in the West not adopting it as public policy No.1?
In the report they then ran simulations removing columns 79 80 & 81 for 6 to 7 floors at various levels. Their models results were that if the columns were removed from lower down the penthouse would not fall. It was not until they removed the columns from floor45 up that they got the penthouse to fall.
So given the video evidence indicates that at least floor 37 up started to fall at the same time as the penthouse ( and not a floor by floor progression ) there is an anomaly.
So
Either the people planting the explosives planted explosives on multiple floors from as low as floor 37 up to cut supports so that the penthouse would collapse matching the model
Or the assumptions underpinning the model did not match the real world structural performance of the as built WTC7
They claim their model proves explosives were needed to bring the building down, but their model is only valid if you assume explosives were used to cause the collapse of the penthouse…
Regards hamish
Ps this keeps on being brought up in honey badger threads, should be done in the 'book review the mysterious of world trade center 7" thread
Hi k12250,
Thanks for the link and the data. Correct me if I’m overlooking something, but the numbers seem to me more like the CFR… Here is why:
- The CFR is by definition larger than the IFR because asymptomatic cases left out when determining the ill people: the goal of the CDC is to estimate the burden of the seasonal flu (hospitalizations and deaths). Asymptomatic infected do not bother anyone, so they are left out of the equation. (Also see post #46 of davefairtex above)
- According to the CDC, the number of asymptomatic people is twice that of the (estimated) ill people (source). If these numbers would represent the IFR, this would mean that the CFR would be twice as high, so, based on your list, maximal 0.34%. Which is unlikely high for the flu.
Number of deaths: as of Monday when testing was performed:
Steve - sorta, but not quite. One more distinction. A final CFR and/or IFR only applies to resolved cases. You are calculating something that is still 'in flight.' NY still has 224,936 active cases. Many of those will resolve without death, but some of them will end in death. In other words, it's certain that your calculation will end higher (unless NYC suddenly has a lot of births or immigration to add to the denominator).Now for the death rate: 17000/8.4million *.212 = 0.95%
- statewide: ~19000 according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- NYS DOH has a lower count, but breaks it down by county so I can estimate 75% of deaths are in NYC: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov
- That gives us about 14250 deaths (0.75 * 19000).
- Approximate adjustment for lag: 2750 – yields 17000.
Extracting two links from Chris’ video today
The WHO Evidence Review Meeting, 2016, on the Cardiotoxicity of Antimalarials Summary and Conclusions, p 36.
....Despite hundreds of millions of doses administered in the treatment of malaria, there have been no reports of sudden unexplained death associated with quinine, chloroquine or amodiaquine, although each drug causes QT/QTc interval prolongation. ----
Chloroquine, and its more contemporary derivative hydroxychloroquine, have remained in clinical use for more than a half-century as an effective therapy for treatment of some malarias, lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis. Data show inhibition of iKr and resultant mild QT prolongation associated with both agents. Despite these suggestive findings, several hundred million courses of chloroquine have been used worldwide making it one of the most widely used drugs in history, without reports of arrhythmic death under World Health Organization surveillance.
I had the Corona virus. It wiped me out for 2 weeks. I slept half the day and spent the rest on the couch. When I walked upstairs I would be out of breath and have to lie down. I got tested and was positive but the good news is I never felt in danger and didn’t have to go the hospital. I have now been recovered for 2 and half weeks. It feels like I have a super power as I no longer need to be scared of getting the virus and have got busy trying to get the economy moving again.
My comment was not implying that we all should sit in a room and meditate and do nothing else, though I am not sure that would be such a bad thing. Internal action is not disconnected from external action. Sure, rail against the deep state (l do believe it does exist, and is part of the endemic corruption that makes our culture so dysfunctional), but what do you really do in the face of such Overwhelming darkness? For me, it is really beyond comprehension, yet so many have adapted to the new normal as if nothing is really happening. Have we even paused long enough to let what’s happening sink in?
In the face of a global pandemic and economic collapse, we see the same small minded petty self interested dysfunctional behavior plying out. Do we Vote for Biden instead of Trump, the choice is so bad that it is beyond absurdity.
I guess I was reiterating Chris’s tag line at the end of every COVID-19 video, plant a garden. Not just because of the real possibility of impending food shortages but because of its transformative nature, between us and the world we inhabit and each other.
What kind of testing did you have? PCR? IgM/IgG? There is emerging data that immunity may not develop longterm. Plus there are last count 18 strains of this virus. Happy that you recovered from the first round.
Hi all,
Like all the rest here I’m somewhat suspicious of the powers that be, however, this whole hydrochloroquine situation might all be a bad case of the old adage “correlation does not imply causation”.
The “facts”:
- hydrochloroquin causes QT prolongation,
- that other drug used in combination causes QT prolongation,
- COVID-19 can damage the heart,
- QT prolongation due to hydrochloroquin did not cause any heart related deaths.
- "This is all fake news spread by the CCP or their agents! We, their biggest rival, is getting hammered. Even our mighty aircraft carriers are grounded, and our oil industry is in shambles."
- "The US is a country run by robber barons under the guise of capitalism: profits are privatized, losses are socialized! The pharmaceutical industry and their cronies are behind this! Imagine! 300 million forced vaccinations costing at least 5000 dollars per vaccination , that's a potential revenue of 1.5 trillion dollars."
- "How could this french catweazle, he just robbed me of my opportunity to shine and share the Nobel prize with the CCP and the WHO!"
My husband, a former athlete and longtime endurance activity guy, suddenly developed AFib and Flutter, after back problems stopped him cold and caused him to gain 50 pounds. His apnea also got much, much worse. His ablations have stopped the Fib and Flutter and he is on lifelong CPap to deter his very severe apnea. His electro-cardiologist told him that ablations have become the number one procedure in the US.
Wondering if the prevalence of severe apnea and obesity in the US, and the craze for more extreme exercise by a large percentage of the fit, worries the medical authorities about how many people could be pushed into Fib/Flutter. Could it be that the 70 years of use is mostly in populations that don’t have much of these problems? And so, medical reps may worry about what the widespread use of HCQ in this country could do here. That may be why they are wanting gold standard studies before it is approved for the virus. Just wondering. I’d like to see it studied here much more and better. Thanks.
Our friend Didier Raoult at the IHU hospital in Marseilles has a “hospitalized fatality rate” (if he manages to get 3+ days of HCQ down the patient) of 0.42%.
Presumably, if one doesn’t arrive at the hospital about to die, then Raoult will be able to give them 3+ days of his treatment, and 99.58% of his patients then survive.
The “symptomatic fatality rate” of influenza .was - what - 0.12%? The “hospitalization fatality rate” of influenza was 7.5%. Of course, some of those influenza cases might arrive at the hospital about to die too, so its not really an apples & apples comparison.
https://www.mediterranee-infection.com/covid-19/
Someday we will give HCQ + z-pak to people routinely in an outpatient setting, without all the “OMG this Trump-branded medicine is horrible” nonsense, and we will - finally - be able to calculate the “treated SC2 fatality rate” and compare it to the “treated influenza fatality rate.”
I’m guessing at that point SC2 will be maybe 2-3 times more severe, but not more than that.
If you catch it early.
The WHO just published a scientific brief that concludes:
WHO has published guidance on adjusting public health and social measures for the next phase of the COVID-19 response.1 Some governments have suggested that the detection of antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, could serve as the basis for an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate” that would enable individuals to travel or to return to work assuming that they are protected against re-infection. There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.Reading further, it seems the WHO is actually saying "there's no evidence...yet" and that research needs to be conducted to answer this specific question:
WHO continues to review the evidence on antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.2-17 Most of these studies show that people who have recovered from infection have antibodies to the virus. However, some of these people have very low levels of neutralizing antibodies in their blood,4 suggesting that cellular immunity may also be critical for recovery. As of 24 April 2020, no study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans.... ...At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.”Read the full brief here.
I was somewhat upset this morning in opening my telephone to find this:
https://blogs.lexpress.fr/le-boulot-recto-verso/2020/04/24/raoult-bientot-suspendu-par-lordre-des-medecins/
Sure, maybe it’s Fake News. But at the very least it is Push Back - and I have never ever looked at l’Express - but I do look at Dr Didier’s twitter.
So maybe we can look at things a bit differently? I am not American. And I do not like the Globalist agenda - I am not looking for a debate here - I hate wasting my time.
We are in a dire situation. Where if you believe the above article to be true, we have lost - totally lost - the protective relationship which we once had between doctor and patient. And what has been imposed?
A new order - state order - where the state dictates how a patient in a certain condition is treated - it started with Vincent Lambert, who through a motorcycle accident was reduced to a vegative state but as they withdrew each element of life support he lived on. Until he was forbidden to be fed, by the state. And now we are forbidden to have HCQ+ treatment because… You said it Chris - from the 11th minute on, there is no reason to do this other than to create a health panic.
Chris, you have done a wonderful job showing the data, the p value in statistics - maybe I’ve got a whole bunch of things wrong with the science?
I am feeling numb because I am over 65, on heart medications with a cardiologist who has thrown me on the roses (as we would say in France). I can’t go and see Dr Didier if I wanted to, and have to play Russian roulette here with a system that you mention in the blog with Sparky posted above.
So what does Dr Diddier say? Here is a post yesterday from his twitter:
https://twitter.com/raoult_didier/status/1253634488346836994
He talks about the leak from the WHO document.
And what does someone post underneath?
Scroll down to SkortenDj where he posts two clips about the French army receiving a shipment of the very dangerous Chloroquine from China.
Sounds alot like Animal Farm to me - remember
Some pigs are more equal than others.
So let’s hear it Chris, How do we break out of this? Without doing a Jim Morrison?