As new cases explode all over the globe, with 5 new countries reporting their first cases, health authorities continue to give out puzzlingly incomplete, contradictory and sometimes even wrong information.
While our view on Thailand is provisionally shifted back to “contained” our view is that Egypt is the next unannounced hotspot.
Given where we are in the story, we’re going to have to perform triage, meaning making tough choices over where to apply woefully inadequate resources.
Our analysis concludes that even though there are numerous exciting vaccine candidates en route, we cannot expect them to arrive any time soon. A vaccine is 6 – 18 months out (best case) which means that the Honey Badger virus will not be stopped before it makes a spring peak. With luck, we’ll have a vaccine in place before the fall/winter resumption of the illness (presuming it operates like a normal flu virus, which may not be the right way to look at it. We just don’t know).
Please, use every day to improve your circumstances.
Great job as usual Chris and Adam. This site is the go to site for COVID 19 info. Thanks so much for keeping us informed. I started weeks ago to prepare thanks to you.
Thank you, Chris, for addressing the questions I raised in the previous thread about whether asymptomatic people can transmit this by aerosol. I really appreciate you looking into it and look forward to hearing what else you may discover.
I wish that the videos and articles were posted here on Peak Prosperity before or at the same time that they are posted to YouTube. That said, I certainly appreciate all of the work Chris and Adam do! Thank you.
So just out of curiosity I had to look at some research into incidence rates of viral infections where estimates were made for how many actual cases might exist versus the number that were tested and confirmed. What the point of the research is about is identifying more realistic raw numbers of the total number of infected patients who have not been identified because they did not report or were simply never tested and that research is then used to predict health budgets and so forth.
Anyway, I picked up one CDC report on Hepatitis C since it was at one time called a plague due to the high frequency among injection drug users and sex trades workers. This is probably applicable here since the majority of Hep-C patients are asymptomatic and therefore never receive a test. This virus is obviously much more difficult to catch than COVID19 however but it will give us some idea of how to think about the kinds of numbers of infections we are really talking about when we see a Corona-virus report out of Italy for example.
For Hepatitis C there were 2967 confirmed cases in 2016 but the estimated number of non-reported cases was 41,200 with a confidence interval of 95%. What that means is for each confirmed case of Hepatitis they can estimate the community infection rate using a multiple of 13.8 and therefore I think everyone here will start to better appreciate why testing is being kept quiet.
The reason naturally is that using this very simple way of doing an estimate we can quickly appreciate for example that Italy’s 1000 confirmed cases of COVID might also represent a minimum of 13.8 times that number of actual infections and then after being multiplied by the infectivity rate (R-naught) and then put on an exponential chart the reality of that situation is jaw dropping. It is staggering really. One thousand confirmed cases tells us the disease is already epidemic translating into tens of thousands of non-reported victims as it stands.
Forgive my application just a little since I used US numbers here and applied them to an Italian population bu I think I can get away with this if only by way of demonstration since Italy is a Western country with a similar injection drug and Hepatitis problems. The apples to oranges comparison is being done just to suggest what kind of infection level numbers we might arrive at mathematically once we have real data in hand and a multiplier based on how contagious that illness is known to be.
So should we just say that for each reported case of Coronavirus we read about there can be an expected additional 50 or 100 cases in the community (and growing exponentially)? I don’t know but someone with better math will probably tell me what a reasonable number is. Whatever it might be will just give added confirmation that the Chinese numbers were all baloney all along since they even suppressed the numbers of confirmed cases.
It could certainly be in the millions of infections though. So this is already HUGE. https://www.cdc.gov/hepatitis/statistics/2016surveillance/commentary.htm
One virologist I read said the question was whether 10% or up to 30% of the transmission was attributable to asymptomatic people. So it sounds like they are pretty sure there is transmission (at least 3 published papers with good info) but at the beginning they thought this type of transmission wasn’t a significant driver of the R0. But if 30% of the contagion is cause by asymptomatic people, then that’s a lot - with the R0 possibly near (or more than) 3, then asymptomatic transmission could conceivably sustain the whole epidemic.
Another interesting fact is that viral shedding is similar between mildly infected people and severely ill people. That is unusual for an infectious disease. I believe this also confused infectious disease specialists early on. Someone had to go in and sample the two types of patients and show that both needed full isolation.
I am just watching a video by Dr John Campbell and he is reporting that more than 15,000 people have recently returned to London from Northern Italy. If we can now presume that there are likely as many as 50 to 80 thousand non reported Corona cases in Italy based on similar virus research (and multiplied by the R0) then it is very unlikely London is going to last long before it sees community closures similar to other jurisdictions. We can know right now today that their hospitals will be overwhelmed in two weeks time. Its a disaster. Who in hell will get on the tube as the case count mounts? Who will go to football matches?
What will happen to the retail and service economy?
I just ran across this comment on Chris’s new video on youtube linking to a Nature article on a simple technique to treat masks to effectively sterilize the mask during use and allow their reuse.
Universal and reusable virus deactivation system for respiratory protection
"However, in the lack of a system to deactivate the collected pathogens, safety concerns naturally arise about secondary infection and contamination from virus-laden filter media during utilization and disposal. Furthermore, since re-sterilization is not possible without causing damage, respirators and masks are recommended for single use only9,15,16. Scientific efforts have been focused on treatment of filters with materials possessing well-known antimicrobial properties, such as iodine, chlorine and metals17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25, although with limited effectiveness against virus aerosols26,27,28. Therefore, a key challenge is the development of an easy-to-use, universal virus negation system, which is reusable without reprocessing and capable of deactivating pathogens, thereby reducing potential risk of secondary infection and transmission.
Here, we report a simple but efficient virus inactivation system exploiting the naturally occurring salt recrystallization. Our strategy is to modify the surface of the fibrous filtration layer within masks with a continuous salt film for virus deactivation via two successive processes: i) salt is locally dissolved by the viral aerosols and ii) supersaturation is followed by evaporation-induced salt recrystallization. Consequently, viruses are exposed to increasingly higher concentrations of saline solution during drying and physically damaged by recrystallization."
seems really simple - soak your masks in very salty water and let them dry, leaving a salt film in the fibers. This salt treatment may also be useful for homemade masks and clothes that you wear when going out in public, but I'm not a virologist, so maybe others could comment on the efficacy of this idea.
I just wanted to add for non-scientists here, the journal Nature is one of the top scientific journals in the world, so this research has been well vetted.
I forget which virologist or epidemiologist said it, but the rule of thumb taught in school is that for every case which they know about, assume 8-10 cases that they don’t.
Simply put - look at the numbers in the media and x10.
That is an excellent idea. For that matter you could also consider storing used masks in a salt bag for a couple days and reduce all the decontamination steps. Think of this the way you might have learned that a mobile phone that has been exposed to moisture can be put in a bag of rice because that wicks all the moisture out of the phone. With a mask you could just bury it inside a bag of ground salt and let it sit since the environment would be extremely inhospitable for a virus particles.
Hello All,
Biofilm is everywhere and on everything. It’s on your tables and chairs, floors, counters, clothing and teeth… it’s even on your skin!
Cleaning with chemicals like bleach, ammonia, alcohol etc will KILL those nasties BUT as soon as that surface is exposed again to those nasties they are back. Cleaning with those chemicals are only temporary methods to keep surfaces clean. How would you like something that not only eliminates pathogen carrying bacteria, viruses and other dangerous disease-producing microbes but allows the surface to become even cleaner days after it has been cleaned and exposed to those same microbes (as long as that surface is not cleaned with some other cleanser?
he real problem with biofilm is that it houses, protects—and subsequently allows for the growth and spread of—pathogen carrying bacteria, viruses and other dangerous disease-producing microbes.
Microbes become embedded within this slimy extracellular matrix of sticky hardening webbing that houses and shields them like a protective canopy.
But, biofilm isn’t just a few gross layers of bacterial slime.
The microbes within organize themselves into a coordinated and functional self-built community allowing them to prosper. Think of it like a “city for microbes”. Basically, there’s a party of bad happening under that “tent”, and no one has enough authority to get in and shut it down, and…
THAT’S THE PROBLEM!
Biofilm is extremely difficult to penetrate and cannot be “killed” or removed with chemical cleaners or disinfectants. In fact, tests show there is little-to-no impact on biofilm when using a variety of full-strength chemical cleaning products including undiluted chlorine bleach. Biofilm is the reason why your tile and/or grout never seems to get back to the clean state it originally was. Whether it’s on your floors or your skin—Nothing can get through to the dirt and bacteria beneath the biofilm, so only the top-most surface dirt is removed, leaving the deeper dangers lurking below untouched, allowing them to continue to flourish and spread.
The truth is, there are only three ways to fully penetrate biofilm and get a surface truly clean:
High-pressure, high-heat steam cleaning; concentrated on the area for long periods, OR
Manually scraping and breaking away the biofilm, OR
Yes wyrld traveler that is my thinking. But then you need to factor in how contagious the illness is and since we have arrived at a rough number of 6 (I think that’s what Chris was saying) it adds the element of exponentials. So Italy which is actually reporting something like 1350 confirmed cases today could easily have 60 to 70 thousands of unreported infections and probably closer to 100,000 which means in other words they have already lost control.
There is not even a practical means to trace infections once you hit those kinds of numbers unless you employ hundreds of people to track it. That is not going to happen. I have honestly become a little fatalistic about this whole thing since I can conclude that this virus cannot be avoided.
Just one single slip up and you have got it. One appointment you must attend to for example where the virus is present or being around one sick person who is in your car. Or the kids bring the illness home. Or one forgetful moment when your eyes or nose is runny and you forget to not touch your face.
Can anyone mortal cover all the angles? I doubt I can. Instead of putting massive efforts into avoidance it may be more sensible to put your money and time into treatment assuming we will both get it and be stuck at home once it happens. There are limits to how much most people can spend on protecting themselves and of course one weak link means the entire chain can break.
I am continually shocked how many doctors are still saying “it’s like the flu”, and how many people say things like “only old people with preexisting conditions are dying”.
Unreal!
Your hard work in preparing and presenting this information has been invaluable. For those of us who have listened/read/watched PP over the last decade plus, this effort of yours is not a surprise.
Know that the beneficial effects for the family and friends of the still relatively few people reading/viewing this information will ultimately and unfortunately remain unknown to you. It is is real and significant nonetheless. This is just personal testimony based on watching my own extended family awakening over the weeks in light of (perhaps initially forced) exposure to your material. Thank you. Please continue while you can.
There are studies showing that vitamin C supplements are less effective than vitamin C consumed in fruit, like an apple. There is less vitamin C in and apple than in a supplement, never the less the smaller amount of vitamins C, in the apple, is far more effective, when consumed along with all the rest of the nutrients in the apple. Reductionism has it’s shortcomings.
Perhaps there is a reason they say “an apple a day keeps the doctor away.” https://www.wholefoodplantbaseddiet.com/vitamin-c-supplements-vs-an-apple/
“Let food be thy medicine.”
Can you give us some real research on this supposed secret layer on ever surface imaginable? You’ve got Chris quoting some real scientific research on surfaces and cell cultures to show infection capacity after a certain number of hours. I don’t see anything that implies a stealthy impervious to disinfectant layer of germs is there at all.
Look at time stamp 22:56, just under when Chris highlights Silicon rubber.
Latex surgical gloves = 8 hours
That means our glove don’t collect this virus particles very well, and that just putting them in a container for a day, probably makes them reusable.
