Bitcoin is in the "mania" phase, with some people even borrowing money to get in on the action, securities regulator Joseph Borg told CNBC on Monday.
"We've seen mortgages being taken out to buy bitcoin. … People do credit cards, equity lines," said Borg, president of the North American Securities Administrators Association, a voluntary organization devoted to investor protection. Borg is also director of the Alabama Securities Commission.
I do have to confess that I've told my wife on multiple occasions that we will one day regret not selling our house, buying and living in an RV, and using the rest of the proceeds to buy gold and silver.
In all honesty, I wouldn’t recommend to anybody getting into the market now. Just like the class I taught Saturday. Unless you’ve been in the market a long time and have a lot of financial cushion and have plenty of patience to learn - take time to learn the technology.
I advised (actually provided) them hard wallet we gave them $15 worth of Ether and taught them how to move it around between accounts. We even showed them how to exchange some of it using shapeshift and right back to the safety of their wallets. We advised them to stay out of the markets but to learn to watch them and learn from them. I don’t just leave it at that with just enough information to be dangerous. I then have them follow me and my newsletter from Facebook “Watchmywallets” so they get some experienced guidance. And then I teach patience.
I actually never advise them to get in the market at any point as I’m not a financial advisor. I just point out interesting changes I see coming and new technologies over the horizon I find interesting that they can watch for themselves. The new internet will be built on the technology of blockchains, so I point at the technologies and the people and teams that are competing to build and connect their visions.
We are likely going to be heading soon into the trough of disillusionment soon. That will give us three to five years to take a breather and watch the real productive work begin. There in the dot-com years were when the pets.com went away- but the Amazons and Ebays and Netflicks grew from whacky ideas into fruitful ( world largest) companies using the new paradigm. Those that were paying attention and not looking at the paradigm we just left - did very well. Stay alert.
Don’t take advice from strangers.
Sorry about the mixed up message - I actually was talking to Dennis, but the thread had been about Gradpas so it appeared he shifted gears without a clutch. But - it was nice to talk about my grandpa and pass the message anyhow.
mrees999 (and others), I’d be interested in your thoughts on litecoin, which went up over 40% today (at $227 as of this post). Like many others, I’ve avoided getting into the crypto-currencies because they aren’t a real store of wealth, and seemed too risky to me. But I am now considering a small purchase (not more than I could stomach losing) for diversification purposes and -to be honest- to take a shot at riding a bubble up for a change.
There’s about 330 oz of gold for each bitcoin. No one trades in gold and the price is suppressed. So par is $400,000. Bubble is what 1-2 million? Granted this napkin computation is for the whole market of cryptos. It could go really high in any case. Governments could lose power (God I hope).
There’s about 330 oz of gold for each bitcoin. No one trades in gold and the price is suppressed. So par is $400,000. Bubble is what 1-2 million, maybe way over that? Granted this napkin computation is for the whole market of cryptos. Bitcoin could go really high in any case. Governments could lose power (God I hope).
I think litecoin is ok. I mined it years ago when it was under $2 and got a few a day. It would be fun to still have those today. It’s a good honest technology. It was created very early by a well known programmer from Google. People make way too much out of the secret identity of the original coder of bitcoin -but the code has been copied and forked thousands of times so it doesn’t matter in the slightest as everybody just uses the principals - the stick figure’ he used that just combined two decades of work from others before him. Charlie was one of the first to give the code a face and name as it is almost exactly bitcoin but on a faster timescale. It has evolved quicker since then.
It is kind of an experimental chain. They try new ideas on litecoin before the try it on bitcoin to make sure it works well. They’ve got a top-notch team with Charlie Lee at the helm. He used to work atop Coinbase and likely convinced them to start doing business with Litecoin as an option. Because it is an option on the world’s easiest exchange, it is very easy to buy with dollars. People see it is perceived to be inexpensive and want the thrill of the thought that it might reach Bitcoin price levels. They can buy a WHOLE COIN. Which probably what attracted you to it.
So I’m ok with it. It doesn’t light my imagination on fire like Ethereum. It has surprised me the legs it has had over the last few weeks. And people piling into cryptos is all it takes for mass phycology to make a self-fulling prophecy. With expectations from those that are finally convinced, there is something to this whole crazy idea. If you think about it - religions have been based on far less that can last centuries.
Nobody I know is planning on building the next internet on it - but it’s training wheels. for the newbies. And that’s something.
nice try Dave but the discussion was not about wallets . It was about the blockchain.
The blockchain has never I repeat never been hacked. Wallets? yes Exchanges ? yes The blockchain never. Is it possible ? Not until quantum computers come along. By then i will be on my island sipping cool drinks with umbrellas in them.
S o Dave I am sure that your charts have made you oodles in the last year. Was it Bitcoin? Ethereum? Litecoin perhaps? Which is your favorite? https://theoutline.com/post/1618/how-hackable-is-bitcoin
I think alanrgreenland (comment 10) is dead right about the big picture but what about the short term? Where should we put our effort and attention?
To me its a matter of balance and focus.
In terms of focus, some years ago I asked myself some tough questions. I know others here have done the same. Where do I set my intention? Where should I invest time, energy and money. My own personal decision was to focus on transition, homestead, orchard, gardens and new skills.
In terms of balance it seem sensible to have one foot anchored in the present and the other firmly planted to be supportive in an uncertain future. This is based on a fundamental martial arts principle - if you get caught out with all your weight on the wrong foot you’re gone. So in my case the ‘leading foot’ part of life is involved with growing food and building soil and managing animals and saving seeds. The ‘trailing foot’ still needs to deal with the realities of present day living - making some money off-property and paying the bills. Investigating opportunities like bitcoin are no longer on the radar screen
BTW another part of balance in the peak everything world is to enjoy the incredible abundance that is available. In our case this includes dark chocolate, good cheese, red wines from around the world, and the occasional trip away. Enjoy it while you can.
Weirdly relatively stable BTC action since the new CBOE XBT futures launched, End of Jan '18 contracts forecasts 10% HIGHER than current price…
Adam, Mark, CHS, any thoughts on this?
Yes with people lending money to buy more, I do believe BTC is definitely in part a bubble, just like everything else in our weird world created by Central Bankers…
Also for a bit of a thought provoking comment, currently trending…
Mark-
Thanks for your longer term view on where we are in the current market cycle.
I agree with your viewpoint entirely. It totally does remind me of what happened to dotcom. Some super valuable things came out of that cycle, but people hopping onto individual stocks in 2000 generally did…poorly.
I look forward to the cycle of disillusionment. That’s when the real fun things will start - the stuff that will actually make it through that period will end up being the stuff that changes the world.
I think there’s an equally important revolution happening in AI. It isn’t quite the speculative frenzy, but it will be equally disruptive.
I am saddened, however, to learn you are resigning as my personal, contrarian “market top detector”. I sense that no skeleton will be forthcoming this time around.
While I agree with you I find that Cryptocurrency and blockchain are very much the present and the future and worthy of my time. It’s a global phenomenon that might just support me during the collapse that I thought would have happened already. I’ve been so wrong on that timing that I will not be surprised if the collapse happens after my grandchildren are grown. Feet planted lightly here. Like a tree in the wind.
I picked this place because I like the thought of being the contrarian of contrarians. People share a common vision supplanted by Chris and Adam who’ve done a great job cultivating that spirit and keeping it alive. It is an easy item for me to adapt as I’m also the contrarian in my circles. I prefer to engage those that don’t agree with me as I learn much more than those who waste their time in an echo chamber of likewise though and opinion.
This is my litmus test. This is where I can find people that fit many criteria I look for. They are stubborn and view the world differently - as ones preparing for the banking crisis environmental breakdown. What I knew in the crypto space was a Epiphany after months spent studying it. In my mind, it was obvious and the draw was just a matter of time.
I’m persuasive in person. I can be persuasive in my writing as well. But trying to persuade the same folks who think we will have no electrical grid, no internet and are saving seeds and being self-sufficient might have been the most difficult crowd to win over for an electric internet-based technology with its own currency systems.
I’ve taken a role in having them share my vision. But there is stil an overwhelming wall of worry most people have to get over. I think it’s still at least 10 to 1 for people thinking i’m crazy to those that have see the light. I use the to gauge how close we are to a bubble. We are still defiantly in the wall of worry stage. Most of the news is still negative. we may see some significant setbacks on the way up. but i think we have years. I still take joy in stirring the pot in these parts so people don’t forget who I am, and I leave an impression. So I’m the Moracle for detecting these sentiment shifts. When we get half of the contrarians heading y advice The usually do it in private or join my other programs - then I think we might be nearing a top.
Etehr just hit the price Bitcoin was at a year ago. New bitcoin might look like it’s fading just by people wearing down the price, just to re-enter the altcoins and Ether. Walk up the street an by far more people don’t know what Ether and most of the world’s countries are still warning people to stay way. Not bubble talk. 3-4 more years.
Mark-
Flaw in your thinking is assuming business as usual. I actually agree with your timeline and “ultimate bubble” assessment if we keep business as usual going.
On the other hand, if we have a recession - or something I’d call a “major unpleasantness” - your timeline will almost certainly not work out in the orderly way you suggest. I have said innumerable times that, “we have no idea how bitcoin will do during a recession.” I suspect volatility will go through the roof, and price will drop substantially faster than the standard asset classes.
I enjoy you coming here too, for much the same reason. You’re my primary top (and bottom) indicator. You were 2 for 2 with crypto - nailed the top both times. The fact you refuse to send me that skeleton makes me think that we might have another 100% gain ahead of us yet, in the time before the next unpleasantness hits. I tried really hard, but you just wouldn’t bite. Most likely: more upside ahead.
But that’s not the case with silver. You felt free to hose silver with your full persuasive power. (It was very poetically written.). Your comment about not visiting your moldy box of silver coins - and how the only people who cared were these ancient, dusty, people-relics makes me think we’re probably at - or near - a low for silver. Your max bearish confidence says: we’re at or near a low.
After all - if the world truly is as you paint it, who is left to sell?
That’s the bottom. Nobody left to sell.
So you may think of yourself as a contrarian of contrarians - but to me that reduces down to “the public”.
Been thinking more on Bitcoin - Tulip bubble or currency revolution - and in particular about Bitcoin and energy. All money and currencies - fiat, gold, silver, Bitcoin - are not wealth, but a claim on value, be that work, or the consequences of work i.e. capital. Work, in turn, is the consequence of expended energy. So by deduction, all money and currencies are a claim on energy, expended in the past or to be expended in the future.
So perhaps we are all thinking about this the wrong way round. Or more accurately, without having thought about the long term energy picture. Which is not great.
I work in the energy sector, offshore renewable energy to be precise, so I know it much better than I do finance, although I’m not uninterested or unexposed to the latter.
The context for the future of these various forms of currency and money will be rapidly falling fossil fuel energy supplies, which will not be replaced by nuclear or renewables. Don’t get me wrong, its not that we don’t want to do our best in these non-fossil fuel sources, but the simple fact is that we’ll never be able to scale to match the drop down the other side of peak fossil fuel energy. Its just not possible. Even if it were, we still haven’t worked out how to replace gasoline and diesel with non-fossil fuel substitutes, so we’re in for an energy crisis. Starting year after next probably, but almost certainly in 2020.
So the $64K question is how will these forms of money and currency adapt to an energy crisis, and energy crisis that will come no matter what our politicians and central bankers do. Because you can’t print barrels of oil or megawatts.
