Thinking further …
Money and, less so, currency are classically successful because they are fulfill the following roles: store of value; unit of account; means of exchange. So how will Bitcoin, gold, silver, and fiat currencies measure up against these purposes in an accelerating energy crisis? In this, we need to distinguish between electronic fiat currency and physical cash, for obvious reasons.
The key point about an accelerating energy crisis is that we will see the reduction in the use of energy for discretionary purposes, as we necessarily focus on the essentials of life, food, water, energy, shelter, and all those other key areas in Maslov’s hierarchy. The reduction in oil - in particular diesel - will make five core activities significantly more expensive: energy production; agriculture; mining; transport; construction.
This will have multiple impacts, but the most immediate will be a reduction in international trade, as it transport becomes more expensive. What is more difficult to forecast is the impact on the international IT-Comms infrastructure, which includes the payment system, banking be it corporate or Bitcoin.
Gold and silver? Not much use if held far from home, or in units that are unmanagably large, but otherwise pretty resistant to any problems in the comms & IT infrastructure, and to inflation. Physical cash also pretty resistant to comms & IT infrastructure problems, less so to inflation.
Bitcoin and electronic cash held in electronically … $64K question squared …
Dave,
From a networking perspective, I think you closed a circuited on me. Being a contrarian of contrarians doesn’t run full circle. It goes deeper into the unknown. In truth, I can’t think of anything at a deeper level that cryptos can mimic. As a technology, a lot of people want to compare them to the internet bubble and with the hype cycle I can see some of those points.
But I think deeper than that. I’m actually long past that. I learned monetary theory before and during the banking crisis. I owned physical gold and silver (and still do) before those shocking events, that actually weren’t all that shocking to people in PM. But I’m also a futurist and enjoy learning about technology that the main stream won’t learn about for a decade. I then try to puzzle out how many technologies might converge.
I’ve said this many times in the past, but we don’t see reality as it is. We see our version of reality and ourselves being projected into the reality. We take our experience, history, biases and decisions including our sense of selfpride given to us as a protection for our ego which is necessary to survive. We have a need to remain consistent with ourselves and what we say. It’s hard to admit when we are wrong. That might mean giving into the thought that we might lose hard earned respect to those around us that listen to our advice. Even harder as we become older and wiser. These self-protection sense of self go deeper. That’s why it’s harder to change somebody’s mind because they are so called “Set in their ways”.
So it’s true that it’s hard to teach a dog new tricks. I find through the eyes of somebody just turned 50 that I sense “I’ve seen this before” because history ‘rhymes’ as Mark Twain advises.
Your background is in computer programing and logic, you likely try to find patterns as we all do to clean up the clutter of all the noise in our lives. But wetechnology background guys have it on in heightened mode. It’s what allows us to excel. So I get it. You want to complete the circuit and think logically that if one is a contrarian to a contrarian – that goes 360 degrees. If-Then-Return.
But where we are going is never-never land. Alice can kiss Wonderland bye-bye. Because we are now talking about blockchain – not just being a technology a network databaseor protocol. It’s much deeper because of the world it threatens. The ripple effects go far deeper and wider than the readers here can barely perceive. This goes to one of the deepest and precious commodity of our lives.
Trust.
When people in power are no longer trusted, they lose the power of influence. People in power are in general a bit (or a lot) narcissistic in nature. They tend to think it is their ‘DUTY’ to take charge and get intoxicated with the feeling of respect and honor of having people rely on them and their decisions. Even if they are evil or misdirected “See North Korea”. History is full of people that would kill their own brothermotherfatherfriendscountrymen to stay in power and keep the overbearing sense of self-respect and ego we all try so hard to maintain. The bigger the ego, the harder (I imagine) to let go.
So a technology comes around, and the world can use it to trust and verify transparently without the need for somebody in the center to take charge. This is now a possible threat to everybody in power and their sense of self. This goes all the way down. People at all levels have a sense of power and responsibility that they identify with. As soon as they are put in charge of of a sibling, then child as a parent, then office manager, or supervisor, up to managerpolitics CEOs etc. The stronger the personality, stubbornness, or charm, the further they go.
The blockchain technology can take away a lot of the need for a ‘data supervisor’ or somebody that is paid by causing ‘friction’ or Data Silos that only they can access. Men especially identify with their job. What are you? - Is generally answered by men by what their job title or job description is. The label, Is a sense of self. Men are mostly judged by this criterion, any follow up is kind of ignored. We’ve made up our mind about them. What education level they probably obtained, a citizen class, how much influence they may have, their approximate net worth ability to purchase can fairly be surmised for most people with that simple question.
On a deep level, far deeper than 99.9% of the readers here understand, is that lawyers, accountants, judges, juries, auditors, cyber security experts, portfolio managers, stock traders etc won’t need a job when the blockchain performs the function for them. Almost every government function involves a contract and verification of the terms being met.
People talked in the last paradigm change about the Internet “eating” certain kinds of businesses that weren’t needed any longer. Local Video Rental stores being just one example of thousands. This blockchain invention will cut much, much deeper. The internet was all about moving information around and giving regular people the power to publish and be heard rather than information centers like the big three TV networks. The powerful centers of information control mostly lost their power of influence as Youtube, blogs, newsletters, Facebook decentralized all of it
Now, I can scarcely think of any industry that will remain unaffected by this new technology because it cuts to the core. Trust. Without it, marriages don’t work. The most basic human nature and sense of belonging falls apart. Businesses can’t operate without trust, governments fall apart. Blockchains decentralize this. Combined with AI – it becomes binary. Yes or know. Provable trust – or not. One or zero.
To a degree that most people cannot yet fathom, the blockchains to come will be world-wide and bring benefits of anti-corruption, and in game theory, trust – beats the unknown or deceived every time. Crime and corruption require darkness, blind spots, misdirection – this might be much harder and rare without collusion. Collusion will be much more difficult when the public demands transparency. Transparency is a core principal of a blockchain, and by extension – trust.
The nature of money requires trust and confidence. The first application built with this new technology was a machine that spit out predictable numbers in a timeframe that was predictable, and uncounterfeitable, and witnessed by all that could understand how to read it. Once it spread big enough and decentralized enough it was considered impossible = or at least near impossible to stop for any length of time. Now the idea was born and the genie was out of the bottle. A new Principal was born. Perhaps a physical components of a blockchain could be suspended – and bless your heart, you’ve pondered this aspect for years. But in our friendly sparring – I keep going back to the human elements that cannot be stopped. The need for people to understand the truth. The social consensus that forms around this principal, once understood is possible – will be unshaken.
Blockchain implementations will come and go – and with all things rooted in principals – the principal need will not be shaken. You can’t put the genie back in the bottle. So this goes back to humanity. This goes back to the principal of trust, and the sense of being needed and wanted. It’s a very personal level.
Most people look at just the surface level and understand that the first app (Money) was so outside their established definitions that they didn’t stop to wonder how they got those definitions and how few people really, I mean really, understand the nature of money, why it was created, the ancient and primal need for it to exist, even to the point of intelligent animals and tiny children creating them.
So this is just briefly touching the tip of the snowflake, that gently lands on the fluffy piece of snow sitting on the hard packed ice that is cemented onto the tip of the iceberg. These ramifications are what I contemplate for hours each day when others are watching pointless television shows, or breathlessly following the latest political scandal – or most of the other frivolous chatter of the world.
So we are starting to get close to the point of this. The skeleton you seek is nowhere in sight in the big scope of things. Sure, I can sense when things are getting overheated a bit on the small scale. But they will be just temporary tiny bumps in the big picture regarding the newly discovered principals 99.9999% of the world has yet to discover. Satoshi Nakamoto set off a slow chain reaction nuclear bomb just starting with money – then to trust, then to business, governments and humanity itself, based on the root primal commodity itself needed for humanity since its birth.
Trust.
Depending on your point of view, that started when Adam first spoke to Eve about this forbidden fruit – or somewhere out of Africa a few million years ago. But it is one of the building blocks for every living creature. This invention fundamentally changes the nature of mass verification and won’t be stopped.
The sudden change in the concept of money that has always needed faith to begin with- won’t be stopped. All the businesses that rely on it and will resist the change… but can’t stop it for long. What we see are just the beginning of the final throes, of money based on custom and shared illusion of fiat moneys breaking itself over a new unchanging principal. Decentralized and transparent trust. The weakest ones will likely go first. People now, mistakenly, measure the bitcoin against their own currency as if it where the principal. But we all know – it is an illusion – not a principal. So we change our perspective and view the world from its point of view and you really see what is happening. It’s not the price of bitcoin going up and down, but the fiat currencies that are reacting to it.
Fiat currencies are the waves of the ocean breaking up against the rocky solid shoreline of trust-based principal.
So I see parabolic moves in price used to measure the bitcoin blockchain (and soon the Ethereum public blockchain). And people wonder if it’s a bubble by their terms. In their minds – reporters and analyst, CEOs, and even Presidents are framing the wrong question. They are projecting their own personal experiences and biases into what they are seeing but without knowing the true form of the thing they think they see as “magic internet money”, or “a fraud” or “no intrinsic value” – without understanding the intrinsic value of trust- is likely the most precious of all commodities as expressed as a primal human need.
Do I really expect somebody new to this space to understand and contemplate the meaning of all of this complex ripple effects that go down many layers deep? No of course not. I dream about this stuff day and night to comprehend it and try to explain it in words that don’t come easy. Even the very shallow base-entry level material I cover as a volunteer takes many rinse and repeat cycles before the ‘aha’ moment hits.
Now I tell you these things to bring light to just a whisper of an echo left in a shadow of what I’ve come to understand through endless hours of contemplation through the last few years. I suddenly recognized it about myself recently. As I reminisced with my Uncle Rocky- I was bitten again with the bug of coin collecting and he asked me what coins I still needed. It was only that spark that made me send the time to look and then recognize and evaluate my own life sudden change in direction.
I was going through my silver proof coin sets still in their official US Mint packaging. 1998, 99, 2000, ect ect etc… all the way up to 2012 where it stopped. It was March 2013 that I discovered Bitcoin through an online article with the headline asking the question of if it was time to take bitcoin seriously. The author was AMAZED that people were willing to pay $30… for one bitcoin. I had to find out why. That was the question as simple as it sounded that spun me into this strange obsessive journey that I had no idea would be so deep, even after I spent the next five days unable to sleep with the excitement of what I discovered. My once proud silver collection never made it to 2013 or beyond. There is sits in the dark, still frozen in the year 2012.
So are those thoughts “main-stream”? Does that sound like somebody who thinks like the masses? Does it even sound like the rational thoughts of somebody that considers themselves a contrarian? How does one take a journey of deciding whether or not an invisible made up digital currency could be worth anything at all – down to understanding the technology could change the fundamental view of our own human dignity and sense of self-worth with imperfect thoughts, emotions, prone to make mistakes because of emotions rather than logic?
Nope, we are way off the reservation now. Peak Prosperity members are just one-layer contrarians. They have no idea yet how many more deeper levels there are – only measured against what the ‘public’ yet understand. I only get to where I am based on several levels of thought experiments ‘it stands to reason’ and find the most logical outcome against the alternatives at each level. Perhaps this takes decades? Perhaps lifetimes? So I’m the contrarian of the seventh order (I don’t know – I just made that up). Call it what you will, it is definitely not the U-turn you imagined.
So, how can this help you today with your strategies and investments? And what about that darn skeleton your looking for? My advice is that you don’t bet against principals. They will always win in the long run. There will be convulsions, shrieks, gasps, screams and more as money as we know it dies a hard death fighting the inevitable conclusion. People in this paradigm with power and authority will try to retain it as long as possible but human-created laws won’t win over fundamental principals in the end. The next guy will use the principals of provable truth to root out the predecessors. That will become the new normal people expect. How does corruption and those that got powerful and rich using it fight back?
Trying to guess when one of the shrieks, gasps, or convulsions that are viewed as a temporary top are challenging when seeing the principals of truth work their magic world-wide when dot coms where generally US – business only and measured in trillions. This whole blockchain business is still written off by most of Wall Street and so called ‘experts” they have no idea of the magnitude of the monetary super volcano about to swallow them whole. They are no longer rearranging chairs on the decks of the Titanic.
It’s more like they are throwing glasses of water at a super volcano.
A perfect storm is heading this way. A three-headed monster that will change the energy equation.
- Artificial Intelligence
- Robotics
- Blockchain
AI will make many jobs obsolete. Already it has proven to be better at diagnosing brain damage and x-rays and well, if it can perform brain surgery better than a brain surgeon. I work with people that build neural networks, much of humanity will need to find something better to do. That will involve a lot less traveling to work as there won’t be enough jobs for the rest. Your next rocket science might be the rocket.
Robotics already can do manual labor much better than people. 100 to one? Manual labor jobs are the least desirable so perhaps we are getting people out of the ‘near slave’ business. The efficiency for automated driving alone will close much if not most of the wasted energy sources now. And also leave a lot of people that depend on the jobs to do this unemployed, finding other jobs that don’t require thinking that AI can do for them.
Blockchains will reduce the need for clerical work. If a person’s job is to be a silo for access to data - there will no longer be a need. Blockchains are the strange things that can be the most public, or private at the same time. They are adjustable. Sells of company stocks won’t need to prove of ownership to trade Notary of property can be proven in real time without agents to validate. Court matters requiring proof of actions and ownership will be largely unnecessary. Many government functions will become obsolete. There will be a massive consolidation of jobs that the blockchain can function as a machine of trust. They can always go get manual labor j…oh wait. Well, there is always the highly skilled professionals that need years of university train… Oh, those are gone too - Darn AI. So we are going to have to retrain like…half? of society in jobs that don’t exist yet?
Well, idle hands are the devil’s workshop they say. We are going to have to find something to keep us all busy. But something tells me that energy won’t be at the top of our lists to worry about as machines and robots and computers can do things without needing to travel, and use a lot less energy than humans do.
Peak Prosperity might have a whole new meaning.
Ok, I confess, tl; dr.
Entry points matter. When Charles bought his bitcoin, he pretty much nailed the entry point. He didn’t buy during a period of max hype, he bought after a smash, but after prices had started to move higher. This is the least stressful time to buy. You get more of the item you’re buying, and you don’t have to endure an emotionally stressful drawdown.
For me, you operate as “the public” because you tell us when the wrong time to buy is. Several times in the past, I saw that the Mark Smug-O-Meter was pegged at maximum right at the top. (And the other day, here, with silver - I speculate at the bottom too).
Should I sell my silver when Mark is maximum-smug? Probably not. Likewise, should I buy crypto at Mark’s maximum smug point? Likewise, probably not. Those are likely to be “local minima” or “local maxima.” I’d have to endure a ton of regret in either case as prices moved against me soon after I made the trade.
And that’s just no fun.
So I stand by what I said. You are a fantastic guide to the highs and lows because of your projected emotional state. (Turns out, you’re human - just like the rest of us.). And you have a massive position, so it follows that when you’re demonstrating maximum-happy, that’s a really, really dangerous time to be buying whatever it is you are holding.
So if I use your emotions as my guide, I know where we are in this particular cycle. That’s where you are “the public” to me.
The part where you aren’t “the public” is your understanding of your market - because you really do know the ebbs and flows in your particular market a whole lot better than I do. I’m trying to use my AI to close the gap in that area. I don’t think that will work big-picture wise, but it might work tactically.
The risk of course is that by saying all this, the output of the Mark Smug-o-Meter will be altered. You will end up restraining yourself, and your utility as a detector will be reduced. If I were wiser I’d just keep my observations to myself. But it turns out that I too just can’t resist… 
As I recall Dave you asked about the entry point some time ago when BTC was
around $2,300 it dropped to $1,800. shortly after. From your posts it would seem you have not entered. I have no problem with that. BTC is not for everyone. Certainly this being a doomer, prepper gold bug community I fully expect a great deal of resistance.
The entry point you are attached to is sort of an irrelevant item to consider in regards to cryptos. There are over 800 now so the entry point is not just related to BTC. You have the opportunity to use your mega abilities to chart any umber of coins and enter when your charts line up with the stars.
Is ETH a good buy at $745? Perhaps, it is but not for you because for all your talk about entry points you will never enter. It is clear you just wish to play Devil’s advocate and have no interest in being a participant. That being said I really do value the role you are choosing to play. As you noted there is a great deal of emotionalism in the crypto market. Your role perhaps functions to bring more rationality to the scene.
Unfortunately the Devil’s advocate role has perhaps cost you a great deal of money but as you stated you don’t mind missing a trade. No problemo. Just think of how much gold and silver you could have purchased now if you had entered one year ago. Just think how many seeds, pumps , solar panels acres chickens etc, the preppers here could have bought with just a small investment in cryptos. Launched in 2015 for …35 each and selling now for $745 ETH was perhaps the opportunity of a lifetime. Well the next ETH is still out there. This is a new technology and I am surprised that not only did you miss it but thyat you remain skeptical. I have met few people in the tech world who hold a dim view of cryptos.
It is a young technology and is and will be going through growing pains, but like Mark I recommend people with some fiat currency that they can afford to lose take the plunge into this brave new world.
As for the many objections I hear everyday from ponzi scheme to bubble, ( it was called a bubble at $90. $270, $ 1,100, $2,000 etc. etc etc) fraud, etc., and some new ones here like electricity usage and that when the internet goes down it will be worthless, maybe my favorite is the internet going down( solar flairs, electromagnetic storm, nuclear war ) well I hope the preppers realize that if any of that happens the entire planet will resemble a Mad Max sequel. Just consider there is only 3 days of food on the grocery shelves, when people cannot buy food after a short time the social fabric which is thinner than Himroo silk will completely unravel. The least of our worries will be whether our cryptos will be worthless. Gold and Silver will likewise be worthless as there won’t be anything to buy. It turns out that that the world everyone here is preparing for will not be any friendlier to their preparations than it will be to the present digital world. In essence we are all in the same boat. I am choosing to use the motor. Some can abandon ship, paddle some hoist the sails, but we are all hoping to find a safe island
All the best
Mo
I did use some of this reasoning to help make the point, but listen to the master make the case much better than myself. Let me know your argument against his point if you can think of one. Good luck.
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=andreas+antonopoulos
I don’t blame you, it was more of a rough draft for an article I’m planning out, I usually start long and free-flowing before trimming it way back. So, there’s your director’s extended cut if you ever get interested.
A couple of points you made, based off from incomplete information you would have had - was that there is now a different kind of Mark than you were utilizing before. The “Smugness” scale. You were probably making some good calls on that because there was a certain satisfaction of becoming wealthy despite the critics - and a bit of mental ‘revenge’ for all the times we ‘believers’ get put down. Yet I don’t quiet down that easily. I’m anti-establishment at heart.
So, now I’m at a point I’m wealthy enough to not have to work another day in my life. And I’ve largely proven my point, what else is there? There was more reflection on the silver ‘downs’ or ‘low smugness’ as you would have seen the introspection and realization of the moment of change in my mind from one paradigm to the next. It wasn’t a knife stab, or ‘gotcha’, it was a humble reflection.
Likewise, you would have read why you can’t find the old Mark Highpoint smugness you could count on as I reflected back the uncertain regret for the future that I have felt might be coming that nobody is talking about. For me, the chase is over. Now I give somber advice to those that want to repeat what I did. Now I realize it’s already too late for most regular people to ever own one bitcoin. I was telling people just a few months ago to put away a little at a time with the goal of just owning one - would be all they would need to retire comfortably - and watched as that goal slipped away for them as we hit $19,000 at one point. Those goalposts are effectively out of reach, and much, much further from here on out.
Instead of a smug Mark you could count on, you have a wiser Mark that realizes he was really lucky to be at the right place at the right time. Sorry, but I doubt I’ll much use as a leading indicator. Money changes people.
I don’t own any cryptos. I am thinking of taking Adam’s advice and opening an account to invest if the price drops. I would have a lot of learning to do before investing. Here is an article I read that I am posting as food for thought. I do not have an opinion on cryptos I am just putting this out there to see what the PP community thoughts are. Thanks to all of you who have commented on this very dynamic situation.
The Virtual Economy Is The End Of Freedom Wednesday, 13 December 2017 06:35 Brandon Smith
There is one simple rule to follow when understanding the tragic history of economies: Never put blind faith in a system built on an establishment-created foundation. You would think this would not be a difficult concept to grasp being that we have so many examples of controlled economies and collapse to reference over the centuries, but in our era more than ever the allure of a virtual world with promises of endless wealth and ease is overwhelming. Yes, I am referring primarily to cyptocurrency “tulip-mania” (sorry bitcoiners, the description is too fitting, it isn’t going away), but not this issue alone. I am also referring to a far-reaching problem of which cryptocurrencies are a mere reflection.
Namely, the fact that humanity is swiftly losing sight of what a true economy is and what it is supposed to accomplish. It is because of this reality that crypto is thriving.
First, let’s be clear, fiat currencies are one of the first machinations of the virtual economy. Once paper currencies printed from thin air by central bankers were separated from tangible backing and accepted by the masses as “valuable” and worth trading labor for, the seed of financial cancer was planted. Today, there is one final step needed for the establishment to accomplish complete tyranny in global trade and that is to disconnect the masses fully from private transactions. In other words, we must be tricked into going digital, where privacy is an absurd memory.
Virtual economics is appealing for several reasons, most of them bad. Americans and much of the west in particular are increasingly uncomfortable with the idea of real production. The latest generation coming into political and social influence, the millenials, is a perfect example. Surveys show American millenials more than any other generation lack basic workplace competency skills, including scoring low on arithmetic and reading comprehension. Often portrayed as “tech savvy” in popular culture and the media, millenials are quite inept when it comes to core skills that fuel strong business and trade, which is part of the reason why the U.S. is falling into the shadow of foreign workforces.
Millenials in the West also exhibit abysmal technical skills in international testing and lag far behind foreign peers. This has come as a surprise to many mainstream economists and social analysts, primarily because millenials are also considered the “most educated” generation ever. But, of course, we have not only been given a virtual economy in recent decades, but also a virtual educational system. A majority of millenials are lacking when it comes to key production skills and entrepreneurship methods because they have been trained to dismiss such skills as negligible. In other words, millenials have been conditioned to be academic idiots.
Why go through the struggle and hardship required to become an effective producer of tangible necessities when it is far easier to join a collectivist drive for socialism and a structure in which little to no work is required to obtain such necessities? Why not steal from a productive minority and spread it thinly enough to keep the unskilled majority fed? It is only within this kind of culture that virtual production, a virtual society and virtual “money” is seen as an ideal solution.
The notion is becoming more and more prevalent in our popular media, and I believe this is rather symbolic (or ironic) of our conundrum.
For example, consider the book Ready Player One, a pop-culture craze and archetypal zeitgeist for millenials soon to be released as an intended Hollywood blockbuster directed by Steven Spielberg. The novel depicts the world of 2045, a world in which fossil fuel depletion and “global warming” have triggered economic and social decline (Remember in the 1980s when they used to tell us that global warming was going to melt the polar icecaps and we would be under water by the year 2000?). A totalitarian governing body controlled by corporate behemoths rules over the dystopian sprawl.
In response to an ever painful existence in the real world, the masses have sought to escape to a virtual world called “the Oasis,” created by a programming genius. The Oasis becomes a nexus for the global economy and a virtual society.
This sounds like a rousing background for a story of rebellion, and it is about that… sort of. Unfortunately, here is where the disturbing ties between our world and the fictional world of Ready Player One meet. The “rebellion” is for all intents and purposes also virtual, and for millenial audiences in particular, this is supposed to be inspiring.
Perhaps this is why cryptocurrencies are so appealing to the millenial crowd in particular. Think about it — the dismal economic doldrums of Ready Player One exist NOW; we don’t have to wait until 2045. Millenials are already feeling disaffected, indebted and disenfranchised, and most of them are also skill-less. Self reliance to them is an idea so alien it rarely if ever crosses their minds. So, how do they fight back? Or, how are they tricked into thinking they can fight back against a virtual system that has left them in the gutter? Why, with a virtual community and a virtual currency, of course.
Millenials and others think that they are going to rebel and “take down the banking oligarchs” with nothing more than digital markers representing “coins” tracked on a digital ledger created by an anonymous genius programmer/programmers. Delusional? Yes. But like I said earlier, it is an appealing notion.
Here is the issue, though; true money requires intrinsic value. Cryptocurrencies have no intrinsic value. They are conjured from nothing by programmers, they are “mined” in a virtual mine created from nothing, and they have no unique aspects that make them rare or tangibly useful. They are an easily replicated digital product. Anyone can create a cryptocurrency. And for those that argue that “math gives crypto intrinsic value,” I’m sorry to break it to them, but the math is free.
In fact, for those that are not already aware, Bitcoin uses the SHA-256 hash function, created by none other than the National Security Agency (NSA) and published by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST).
Yes, that’s right, Bitcoin would not exist without the foundation built by the NSA. Not only this, but the entire concept for a system remarkably similar to bitcoin was published by the NSA way back in 1996 in a paper called “How To Make A Mint: The Cryptography Of Anonymous Electronic Cash.”
The origins of bitcoin and thus the origins of crytpocurrencies and the blockchain ledger suggest anything other than a legitimate rebellion against the establishment framework and international financiers. I often cite this same problem when people come to me with arguments that the internet has set the stage for the collapse of the globalist information filter and the mainstream media. The truth is, the internet is also an establishment creation developed by DARPA, and as Edward Snowden exposed in his data dumps, the NSA has total information awareness and backdoor control over every aspect of web data.
Many people believe the free flow of information on the internet is a weapon in favor of the liberty movement, but it is also a weapon in favor of the establishment. With a macro overview of data flows, entities like Google can even predict future social trends and instabilities, not to mention peek into every personal detail of an individual’s life and past.
To summarize, cryptocurrencies are built upon an establishment designed framework, and they are entirely dependent on an establishment created and controlled vehicle (the internet) in order to function and perpetuate trade. How exactly is this “decentralization”, again?
TOTAL information awareness is the goal here; and blockchain technology helps the powers-that-be remove one of the last obstacles: private personal trade transactions. Years ago, a common argument presented in favor of bitcoin was that it was “completely anonymous.” Today, this is being proven more and more a lie. Even now, in the wake of open admissions by major bitcoin proponents that the system is NOT anonymous, people still claim anonymity is possible through various measures, but this has not proven to sway the FBI or IRS which have for years now been using resources such as Chainanalysis to track bitcoin users when they feel like doing so, including those users that have taken stringent measures to hide themselves.
Bitcoin proponents will argue that “new developments” and even new cryptocurrencies are solving this problem. Yet, this was the mantra back when bitcoin was first hitting the alternative media. It wasn’t a trustworthy assumption back then, so why would it be a trustworthy assumption now? The only proper assumption to make is that nothing digital is anonymous. Period.
With the ludicrous spike in bitcoin prices, champions of the virtual economy are unlikely to listen to any questions or criticisms. I have never argued one way or the other in terms of bitcoin’s potential “market value,” because it does not really matter. I have only ever argued that cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are in no way a solution to combating the international and central banks. In fact, cyrptocurrencies only seem to be expediting their plan for full spectrum digitization and the issuance of a global currency system.
Bitcoin could easily hit $100,000, but its “value” is truly irrelevant and consistently hyped as if it makes bitcoin self evident as a solution to globalism. The higher the bitcoin price goes, the more the bitcoin cult claims victory, yet the lack of intrinsic value never seems to cross their minds. They have Scrooge McDuck-like visions of swimming in a vault of virtual millions. They’ll only accuse you of being an “old fogey” that “does not understanding what the blockchain is.”
The fact is, they are the one’s that do not really understand what the blockchain is — a framework for a completely cashless society in which trade anonymity is dead and economic freedom is destroyed.
Ask yourself this: Why is it that central banks around the world (including the BIS and IMF) are investing in Bitcoin and other crytpocurrencies while developing their own crypto systems based on a similar framework? Could it be that THIS infusion of capital and infrastructure from major banks is the most likely explanation for the incredible spike in the bitcoin market? Why is it that globalist banking conglomerates like Goldman Sachs lavish blockchain technology with praise in their white papers? And, why are central bankers like Ben Bernanke speaking in favor of crypto at major cryptocurrency conferences if crypto is such a threat to central bank control?
Answer — because it is not a threat.
They benefit from a cashless system, and liberty champions are helping to give it to them
. Above all else, the virtual economy breeds weakness in society. It encourages a lack of tangible production. Instead of true producers, entrepreneurs and inventors, we have people scrambling to sell real world property in order to buy computing rigs capable of “mining” coins that do not really exist. That is to say, we may one day soon be faced with millions of citizens expending their labor and energy in order to obtain digital nothings programmed into existence and given artificial scarcity (for now).
It also encourages false rebellion. Real change requires actions in the real world. Removing banking elitists and their structures by force if necessary (and this will probably be necessary). Instead, freedom activists are being convinced that they will never have to lift a finger to beat the bankers. All they have to do is buy and mine crypto. The day will come in the near future when the folks that embrace this nonsense will wake up and realize they have wasted their energies chasing a unicorn and are ill prepared to weather the economic reset that continues to evolve.
To maintain a real economy in which people are self reliant and safe from fiscal shock, you need three things: tangible localized and decentralized production, independent and decentralized trade networks that are not structured around an establishment controlled system (like the internet is controlled), and the will to apply force to protect and preserve that production and those networks. If you cannot manufacture a useful thing, repair a useful thing or teach a useful skill, then you are essentially useless in a real economy. If you do not have localized trade, you have nothing. If you do not have the mindset and the community of independent people required to protect your local production, then you will not be able to keep the economy you have built.
This is the cold hard truth that crypto proponents do not want to discuss, and will dismiss outright as “archaic” or “not obtainable.” The virtual economy is so much easier, so much more enticing, so much more comfortable. Why risk anything or everything in a real world effort to build a concrete trade network in your own neighborhood or town? Why risk everything by promoting true decentralization through localized commodity-backed money and barter systems? Why risk everything by defending those systems when the establishment seeks to crush them? Why do this, when you can pretend you are a virtual hero wielding virtual weapons in a no risk rebellion in a world of electronic ones and zeros?
In truth, the virtual economy is not legitimate decentralization, it is a weapon of mass distraction engineered to kill legitimate decentralization.
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Well, your use to me as a coincident indicator is truly over then.
However, the comment about silver (whatever the reason) was actually quite helpful to me. I absolutely didn’t take it as a jab - even if it might have been intended that way. Which you say it wasn’t. I found it useful because I sensed it contained genuine emotion, and that underscored just how tired the silver group is about the perennial downtrend. You weren’t just speaking for yourself, you were speaking for them too. That’s a sign of the low. If you had sold your silver - perhaps buying bitcoin with it - it would have been even better.
I have an utterly unrelated question to ask you. Do you know where I could find some high performance code to scan my local copy of the blockchain? The two open source packages I have tried end up core dumping on the August 24th block. I know a bunch of you guys in the whale group watch the blockchain - you must have code you use for this. Is it all home grown and private, or do you guys all use some open source codebase for your scanning efforts that you could point me to?
The bad news is that I’m not in the Whale group - I think I do qualify as a 1 percentor according to an article on Medium, but sadly not by much- And I’ve not coded for any blockchain group. Two strikes.
Possibly good news…
However, I did sell silver for bitcoin on two occasions if that is helpful. Back in 2013 out went a few hundred ounces to jump-start the bitcoin craze when paychecks quit being enough.
And last spring when I found I could put around $10,000 worth of junk silver proceeds into the bitcoin IRA and proudly stashed 9 bitcoin in the IRA fund for my trouble. That was back last spring at $1,100 bitcoin.
The GREAT news!
Flash forward 8 months and the IRA has jumped in value to around $150,000ish. Saving me about 35 years it would have at 8% annual.
Perhaps gauging my sentiment back in March is helpful? - or Fall of 2013?
uh…probably not.
Mark - “Peak Prosperity members are just one-layer contrarians.”
Is that a deliberate generalisation?
To prod & annoy us all?
To shake us up?
Clearly it’s inaccurate, as you know the likes of CHS and his history with BTC, etc.
But I welcome it, especially if it’s to get us to consider that a portion of assets should be held in certain selective Cryptos even as a partly a short term speculative play along side longer term positions.
As you know, like many I capitulated out of fear, ignorance & lack of time to study. I also came to thinking the Crypto space is definitely in a bubble…
And I do think it is, but as the article says if less than 1% of the population is involved, how the hell does it compare to stock markets, gov & private debt, housing, etc, etc.
It’'s trying to identify where we are in that bubble that interests me. 3% of searches relating to crypto are how to buy on credit cards, some even remortgaging. And New Crypto products will allow leveraged buying based on cash loans from the balance of your existing cryptos.
IMHO based on my limited research, we are still early, way before Newton’s first exit point for his South Sea bubble.
As others have commented, the long term sustainability does concern me. Where is all the required energy to run the blockchain going to come from? Maybe a more efficient economy, reduction in human travel, less buildings needed, etc, etc? I’ll now gratefully go away and investigate the YouTube links above.
Lastly thanks to all on here, please keep this going, it’s good natured healthy challenges that we need and should be having. I’m still grateful that I’m learning from all your views.
As hinted above, one thing that concerns me is how and where is all this increase in energy consumption going to come from?
https://www.networkworld.com/article/3241848/data-center/data-tsunami-to-absorb-20-of-world-electricity.html
Conversely, to turn this around and look at it from another perspective, is the acceptance of certain BlockChain technologies actually going to reduce growth in Energy Consumption overall?
If I had just had a magnificent run up in paper wealth (or “electron wealth” in the case of BTC) I would take some of the gains and pay off my home mortgage, car loans, several acres of gardenable land and move to real stability in the real world.
It is a strategy of hedging for a very wide range of possible futures. And get my wife a present. (Thanks Yoxa.)
This is what I did NOT do myself during the telecom run-up of '98 and '99. Instead I stayed fully invested during the crash waiting for that “one more doubling.”
Now, I ponder a new question - I plan to do this in places I haven’t yet (already out of debt, mortgage mostly is gone. As I did the math, paying 3.5% interest on a loan versus receiving 2,000 to 10,000% interest favored holding on to some crypto a bit longer.
What I really wished for is a way to cash some out, but not miss out on the next round of amazing gains. There’s a point where pigs get slaughtered and it’s all a big lotto - where you’re a winner each week. How can I have my cake and eat it too? I have to cross some point and then say enough is enough and I’ve been borderline to that number. But this was all the means to an end. I share the same end games as most everybody here.
Land, cash flow, a self-sustaining happy life. So easy decision right? Back it all up and move on. But wait, before I change gears and go one…there’s just. one. more. thing…
SALT Lending.
The organization put out its own tokens used for membership on their platform. This now allows me to essential ‘mortgage’ my bitcoin. I can now take a cash loan, paid directly to me using some of my bitcoin as the collateral. The best part about taking a loan rather than just sell out and pay the huge tax bill? Most of my gains will have to be considered short term- as I swapped out some older long term for newer ICOs that looked promising. 35% (or worse) taxes. If I cash out everything at once, it will be much worse.
But you don’t need to pay taxes on loans of course. What if I take out a 36 month loan on say… one million dollars backed up by bitcoin. *actually more like 1.2 million in bitcoin to smooth over the big bumps mini crashes we often have. I would probably need another cool million as backup in bitcoin to feed the loan and keep it above water. Just in case, if I wanted to maintain it. But I get one million in cash to buy real world assets. Including the cash-flow creating property that is completely unrelated to crypto? The worst that can happen is I don’t make any payments? I lose 1.2 million worth of deflated bitcoin if it’s a major crash - but I have a million dollar cash-flow property.
SALT Loans require no credit checks, the asset is put into a new ‘smart contract’ that I can set up to pay down the loan automatically if the price of bitcoin goes up. If I’m lucky enough for the price to double yet again, I can draw out enough to pay off the original loan. No prepayment penalties and I can close the loan after just one hour. I continually own the asset if I’m making my payments on time and keeping the loan to value ration in order. If any crypto keeps doubling that I simply use those winnings’ to satisfy the loan. In the real world, I’m living the good life with the cashflow replacing a salary and enough cash flow to also pay off the loan on the property in the real world.
Now crypto and SALT have just created another new paradigm that could change banking and peer-to-peer lending forever (assumping the world of crypto won’t simply come to an end) there’s too much momentum and half TRILLION invested by some very, very big companies and financial institutions working on solving next-generation problems, including medical research, world poverty and hunger all using this blockchain technology. Too many life-changing, society-changing benefits and happening all over the globe at the same time.
So I’ll take my cake (The SALT LENDING load) to cash some out, tax-free, and I’ll have it too (I still own the bitcoin). They will be adding etherem and some more of the top 10 digital assets in the near future and will be going worldwide. They’ve already got the securities, banking, licenses for the US finished. The loan platform goes live within the next few weeks. Win-Win.
Now, I ponder a new question - I plan to prepare in places I haven’t yet (already out of debt, mortgage mostly is gone. As I did the math, paying 3.5% interest on a loan versus receiving 2,000 to 10,000% interest favored holding on to some crypto a bit longer.
What I really wished for is a way to cash some out, but not miss out on the next round of amazing gains. There’s a point where pigs get slaughtered and it’s all a big lotto - where you’re a winner each week. How can I have my cake and eat it too? I have to cross some point and then say enough is enough and I’ve been borderline to that number. But this was all the means to an end. I share the same end games as most everybody here.
Land, cash flow, a self-sustaining happy life. So easy decision right? Back it all up and move on. But wait, before I change gears and go one…there’s just. one. more. thing…
SALT Lending.
The organization put out its own tokens used for membership on their platform. This now allows me to essential ‘mortgage’ my bitcoin. I can now take a cash loan, paid directly to me using some of my bitcoin as the collateral. The best part about taking a loan rather than just sell out and pay the huge tax bill? Most of my gains will have to be considered short term- as I swapped out some older long term for newer ICOs that looked promising. 35% (or worse) taxes. If I cash out everything at once, it will be much worse.
But you don’t need to pay taxes on loans of course. What if I take out a 36 month loan on say… one million dollars backed up by bitcoin. *actually more like 1.2 million in bitcoin to smooth over the big bumps mini crashes we often have. I would probably need another cool million as backup in bitcoin to feed the loan and keep it above water. Just in case, if I wanted to maintain it. But I get one million in cash to buy real world assets. Including the cash-flow creating property that is completely unrelated to crypto? The worst that can happen is I don’t make any payments? I lose 1.2 million worth of deflated bitcoin if it’s a major crash - but I have a million dollar cash-flow property.
SALT Loans require no credit checks, the asset is put into a new ‘smart contract’ that I can set up to pay down the loan automatically if the price of bitcoin goes up. If I’m lucky enough for the price to double yet again, I can draw out enough to pay off the original loan. No prepayment penalties and I can close the loan after just one hour. I continually own the asset if I’m making my payments on time and keeping the loan to value ration in order. If any crypto keeps doubling that I simply use those winnings’ to satisfy the loan. In the real world, I’m living the good life with the cashflow replacing a salary and enough cash flow to also pay off the loan on the property in the real world.
Now crypto and SALT have just created another new paradigm that could change banking and peer-to-peer lending forever (assumping the world of crypto won’t simply come to an end) there’s too much momentum and half TRILLION invested by some very, very big companies and financial institutions working on solving next-generation problems, including medical research, world poverty and hunger all using this blockchain technology. Too many life-changing, society-changing benefits and happening all over the globe at the same time.
So I’ll take my cake (The SALT LENDING load) to cash some out, tax-free, and I’ll have it too (I still own the bitcoin). They will be adding etherem and some more of the top 10 digital assets in the near future and will be going worldwide. They’ve already got the securities, banking, licenses for the US finished. The loan platform goes live within the next few weeks. Win-Win.
Mark, I haven’t done the math, but if I were you, I’d emulate my hardware-engineer friend who top-ticked the 2000 bubble by selling his (ISO) QCOM shares at the high.
He moved to Oregon, bought a 10-acre ranch, and never looked back. He then went off and got a masters in Fine Arts, and now he does painting, sculpture, and gardening. That’s been 17 years now.
At some point you gotta figure, “how much is enough?”
“Everything we want in life, we want it because we think it will make us happy.”
From what I’ve seen, you can short-circuit that game of “wanting stuff” and just be happy. You’ve got nothing left to prove on the bitcoin project. Say to yourself, “yep, I was right”, and then ride off into the sunset and do whatever it is you’ve always wanted to do.
Is there life after bitcoin?
Just my suggestion.
is enough? Is so then I’m there. And here is a hero of mine, http://www.yesmagazine.org/issues/solidarity/the-woman-beside-wendell-berry-the-most-important-fiction-editor-almost-no-one-has-heard-of-20171212
This is heady stuff Mark. It makes the Klondike gold rush sound like paint drying.
I’m wondering what are the implications for science and technology and hermeneutics if that’s the term for how we grasp reality?
Trying to hug reality, I’m naturally biased towards Barnbuilder’s worldview, but wanting to avoid pain, I’ll jump the odd chasm when the ground is going from under my feet.