So anyone turning 65 and becoming eligible for Medicare can expect to need somewhere between 120 to 215 thousand set aside for expenses Medicare will not cover. I'll take your word for this but…
By this accounting and the savings figures cited, only about 15% of the population will have enough cash to pay for this, much less have anything to eat.
I currently pay $110 per month from by Social Security Check and a couple hundred more for the supplement policy. a total of about $300 per month plus copays and such.
So your figures suggest an increase, based on a 75 year life span, of almost $800 per month.
If this is correct, then anyone turning 65 should go ahead and stick a pistol in his mouth rather than face sure starvation. So I suggest continuing to pump Fed Play Money into the system for a while longer and let the group behind me starve.
[quote=Doc Holliday]So anyone turning 65 and becoming eligible for Medicare can expect to need somewhere between 120 to 215 thousand set aside for expenses Medicare will not cover. I'll take your word for this but…
By this accounting and the savings figures cited, only about 15% of the population will have enough cash to pay for this, much less have anything to eat.
I currently pay $110 per month from by Social Security Check and a couple hundred more for the supplement policy. a total of about $300 per month plus copays and such.
So your figures suggest an increase, based on a 75 year life span, of almost $800 per month.
If this is correct, then anyone turning 65 should go ahead and stick a pistol in his mouth rather than face sure starvation. So I suggest continuing to pump Fed Play Money into the system for a while longer and let the group behind me starve.
Thanks
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The health care the current Medicare recipients are receiving is unsustainable and has been for years. The pill for every ailment, surgery for every condition regardless of someone's age and/or co-morbidities is going to come crashing down around all our ears and certainly before you exit stage left and the generation behind you starves as you so aptly stated.
Our expectations of what can be done for us in our 50's, 60's and 70's will have to be radically adjusted. All the paper money the Fed can print will not stave off the implosion of our sick care industry.
Health care providers are dying on the vine financially this year. I know practitioners that have seen their Medicare reimbursement go from 14 days post billing to 90 days. Can you say cash flow problem? Some are already dipping into savings to make payroll. How long do you think that will last?
The death spiral is upon us and accelerating. Hold onto your hat it's going to be one hell of a wild ride.
"Ahh Doctor the bank's on line 2""Take a message please"
"Also the supply guy demands COD from now on"
"Ok whatever"
"Let's see now Mrs.Smith ,we can bill this using this code and get them to pay for it "
The good doctor living the lie ,settles back to his world of overdiagnosing."Everything will be ok" he mutters.
He is comforted in knowing that this sprial down is such a slow process although it has not been getting any better since 2008.Still he has hope that organically he will figure out what to do.Sort of look for the oportunities.He doesn't have the courage to get out and is willfully blind about his gut feelings".Maybe we can comfort ourselves as we all fall down".He feels better now…
Adam, great article. One thing, you make retirement sound like the norm, rather than a recent blip of our debt/fossil fuel frenzy. It's only been in the last 100 years (maybe less) that retirement was an option for all but the super rich. You worked until you died or your family took care of you.
I don't have kids, but thinking back on my own experiences and what I would do different. I would travel for a bit and work before college. Many countries offer temporary (6 month-1 year) work Visas for younger people. I would have picked out a country and moved there out of high school just to experience a different culture/environment. I also think it prepares you to better appreciate the education. Plus given our predicament, world travel will not likely be an affordable option in the future.
The problem is what is real? Subsidies of food, housing, whole industries skew the values dramatically. I still like looking at TP (toilet paper). Not directly subsidized, hasn't changed in a long time (not subject to dramatic technological progress), common item by many manufacturers and generally produced relatively locally.
$1.09/$3.36 - looks like your $1.09 gets you about 68% less. Since I'm sure the 1980 price was at a grocery store versus a behemoth like Walmart, I'm guessing the 73% is probably not far off.
Toilet paper costs?
Have you checked the quality and quantity of sheets per roll as well? They're skimping on the size of the square, too!
The Toilet Paper Conspiracy (January 11, 2012)
"…So now the sheets measured 4.1 by 3.7 inches. That was definitely a change from the old 5 by 5, but since it happened over time, few consumers noticed…" https://www.efoodsdirect.com/blog/the-toilet-paper-conspiracy/
The Toilet Paper Conspiracy, Part Two (January 25, 2012)
"…Although my relationship with toilet paper is an intimate one, it’s not that intimate, and what brand I use is not that significant. As long as my bathroom tissue gets the job done, the only thing I care about is how much money I’m flushing down the toilet with it." http://www.efoodsdirect.com/blog/the-toilet-paper-conspiracy-part-two/
Rob P, you are spot on You stated: " If we're after education (Again, as opposed to obtaining credentials), its mostly a matter of whether the person is motivated. There are also, very likely, all sorts of people in every community willing to share their knowledge - probably for free."
With the internet, all one needs is motivation to learn basic skills and then become an apprentice to someone with experience to apply those skills. This should be the two part model for education after the crash (or during the long smoulder/darkness, which seems more and more likely now)…
Ivan Illich described this juxtaposition with the stupid is / stupid does collectivized system of modern credentials based on teachers who have no knowledge or experience in creating value but live in their own little world. See Deschooling Society by Ivan Illich.
“Most learning is not the result of instruction. It is rather the result of unhampered participation in a meaningful setting. Most people learn best by being "with it," yet school makes them identify their personal, cognitive growth with elaborate planning and manipulation.”
“School has become the world religion of a modernized proletariat, and makes futile promises of salvation to the poor of the technological age.”
Marvin
[quote=rhare]One thing, you make retirement sound like the norm, rather than a recent blip of our debt/fossil fuel frenzy. It's only been in the last 100 years (maybe less) that retirement was an option for all but the super rich. You worked until you died or your family took care of you.
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My most frequent conversation at work is that retirement has only been a recent event. Both my parents worked past normal retirement age (Dad retired at 82 to take care of Mom). They did not need the income. They simply enjoyed other people and staying active.
Another frequent topic I bring up is that the poor of today have a life style that was only enjoyed by kings of the past. All of this has been brought to us by the "debt/fossil frenzy" mentioned by rhare.
I have sent this outstanding article to more individuals than any other from this site. It's not possible to read this and not connect the dots.
Nate
What about people that own successful small businesses? Some will succeed, some will fail. The inflation of Germany 1920's decimated much small business (~ 20-100 employees). What are the features of the ones that will survive and the ones that will fail. Front line inflation or back line inflation considerations? Planning for bunkered logistics and compensation? Ironically, some small business may thrive in the subsequent environment.
I don't have the money to do this. But, I'd like someone to start a "real goods inflation tracker" web site that shows pictures, sizes, weights (maybe toilet paper sizes can be fooled with playing around with sheet thickness, sheet size, number of sheets, but weights should a pretty good proxy), etc. over time, and across the country.
It would be really useful for tracking price inflation. Just a lot of headache to maintain and code for it, and handle traffic. I wouldn't mind occasionally taking pictures and offering price information. What do you guys think?
Like what rhare has done, but on a massive crowd-sourced scale.
I thought about doing something like this but here were my conclusions:
It's a lot of work and I simply don't have the time to do so with all the other "more useful" projects.
Shadow Stats essentially does this and gives you the answer (at least in the ballpark) that all this work intends to produce.
It's hard! What do you do about quality and not just quantitative changes. For instance how do you know there is only 1.75 scoops of raisins in your raisin brand instead of 2? Or how do you know your coffee contains more Robusta beans instead of Arabica?
Ultimately I came to the conclusion, Shadow Stats is close enough. I can get a rough number, check it with a few things on my own (TP, Paper Towels, Gas, Food) and see if it makes sense. Close is good enough since all you really need to know is that inflation is out-pacing income. All the rest is just economic porn.
A most interesting example. If you apply official CPI inflation to $1.09 in 1980 dollars you get that they are worth $3.07 2013 dollars. So by this one toilet paper example, you get that the numbers match pretty well: $3.36 vs $3.07. Obviously this proves nothing because inflation is the weighed average of a million things, each of which varies by a different amount, but it's interesting nonetheless. (Here's the data: http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=1.09&year1=1980&year2=2013 )
I said "If you do the same math if the 1980 (ShadowStats) version, you get that real weekly earnings are 73% lower with SGS than with the official CPI. " So that means 73% lower AFTER you applied CPI inflation, not as a substitute for CPI inflation.
According to ShadowStats inflation, $0.33 1980 dollars are worth $3.36 (approx) today's dollars. So by that measure, if toilet paper was a perfect reflection of inflation, it should have cost about $0.33 in 1980, not $1.09. This is no proof that ShadowStats is flawed; I just wanted to clarify the TP example.
[quote=nedyne]According to ShadowStats inflation, $0.33 1980 dollars are worth $3.36 (approx) today's dollars. So by that measure, if toilet paper was a perfect reflection of inflation, it should have cost about $0.33 in 1980, not $1.09. This is no proof that ShadowStats is flawed; I just wanted to clarify the TP example.
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Interesting… so I decided to dig a bit. Here is an image of Charmin from the 1980's:
In this picture, we can see 4 rolls were 281.2 sq ft. So that means at $1.09 that means the toilet paper is $0.00387/sq. ft ($1.09/281.2). A recent purchase (June 2009) was $19.35 for 866.2 sq. ft, or $0.02234/sq. ft
Since the CPI calculator at BLS wouldn't take sub penny amounts, I multiplied by 1000. So the BLS says $3.87 in 1980 should be $10.90, however we actually paid $22.34. Note, I think the 22.34 is actually lower than what a valid comparison would be, since this was at Costco as opposed to a grocery store.
I'm actually pretty shocked that a roll of toilet paper has shrunk from 70.3 sq. ft to only 28.9 sq. ft. WOW! I will probably go to Costco this week and see what a package is running now. Since Bounty paper towels (another P&G product) shrunk between June of last year and this month, I suspect TP may have done so as well.
Thanks for the artile. It is very instructive. But having read its list of what-to-do, I was surprised, especially taking into account the video, that all suggestions relate to personal restrictions. From my point of view, the US has enough wealth to be prosperous country. The problem is how it is distributed. Saying this I do not mean that the author's suggestions are wrong. I do think we have to follow them. I just want to emphasize that the list is not complete.
Not totally, but there is an element of the two guys being chased by a bear. One finally says to the other “I don’t have to run faster than the bear, I just have to run faster than you.”I have been headed toward total self sufficiency, off grid. Now, I was born early enough in the dirty 30’s that I can remember part of them, a luxury few today have. Most cannot even imagine a world without, say electricity. We hand pumped water for all our cooking and sanitary needs, watering the livestock and gardens, etc till the early 50’s
At the end of 2012 I was “swinging between hope and despair”, seeing how fast this economic freight train was bearing down on us. I was not ready. I had previously researched such things as historical empire failures, and how things were in the 1800’s for the pioneers and what they survived on. (I also wrote a book of a fictional US/world downfall, the precursor elements of which are nicely summed up by Adam above.) I made an estimate of how society might react to such social upheaval. (And it ain’t pretty. I was subscribing to two USSR English language newspapers when the USSR went down, and had graphic, on the spot, weekly reports of the decline of a modern, hi-tech nation as it fell flat on its face. Criminality was, and still is 20 years later, insane.) In typical New Year’s resolution form, I was morosely reviewing where I was at and not happy.
I eventually came to one of many conclusions. The mere fact that I was aware and preparing gave me a huge head start over ninety odd percent of the population who thought “It can’t happen here” and will be blindsided. You, and I, have so many tools to deal with this that others do not have. You have been gardening, something that survivors in the USSR absolutely needed. Many did not eat well, but those who gardened, ate. You have been expanding your skill set, something that few people in this specialist world have. Maybe you are picking up the best skills, maybe not, but you have picked up the important part, a mindset that is willing to learn as conditions change and an awareness that change is possible. While others stare blankly, you will be reacting instantly to events as they happen. I too have nearly every fruit and nut tree that survives in my climate, as well as other perennials, like horseradish and mint which adds variety of taste to other, blander foods.
You will find enough new ideas that you will never “be ready”. It just grows and grows as you educate yourself. The crystal ball is murky enough that your or my forecasts will never be 100%. But we can improve the odds.
We too have traveled the world and seen "happy" folks. But there is another side. Friends in groups like Doctors without Borders, Catholic Charities, Help the Children, etc tell heart-breaking stories of abject poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition, abuse and suffering that is a "way of life". And I doubt our standard of living is the cause. Ironically, it is our "system" that generates the disposable income that provides innovative tools of sustainability (better seeds, cleaner water, more medicines) as well as the means to help the less fortunate. I, too, no longer rave at our ability at self-deception and obsession with doing things the same old way. We may suffer a great decline. I say "may" because technological advance is unpredictable. Ultra-cheap, super efficient solar power could be a game changer. Paying off the mortgage is similar to contibuting the max to your IRA - use the money instead for PMs.
My father in laws favorite line used to be "getting old is no fun, but it sure beats the alternative". He is 90 now and still doing OK. The way things are going, that may not be true any more. There was a story on the cost of health care on a local radio show here. The host of the program narrated a true story about a women who called an ambulance because she was having chest pains. She lived about 4 miles from the hospital. She spent the better part of the day there, but in the end, checked out OK, and went home that afternoon. Any guesses on the hospital bill?
$21,000.00! If I get chest pains in the back yard, think I'll lay down and let the squirels eat me. One of the guests on the show was a CEO of a similar hospital in the area (nonprofit). His salary, seven figures. Talk about entitilement? As Chris pointed out in Rowe this weekend, human beings learn two ways, through pain or through enlightenment. Seems were big into the pain side of things. It is a mystery to me how all this will play out, but I'm betting the working poor (aka formally the middle class) will stand in long lines at free clinics given by doctors without boarders, while the wealthy will continue to get excellent care (this has actually allready occured in at a number of places in the rural south).
