Can you give triangle formula?..
Stick a fork in us. We are done.
4 Likes
You can think of a triangle or a three legged stool. Do you want to keep them relatively equal so the glass of water on the stool doesn’t slide off one side.
Cash and cash equivalents - very liquid.
Risk assets - play where you can
Insurance - Precious metals, arable land …
Although right now is a time where risk assets are much more risky and I’m a little lopsided towards the other two.
3 Likes
Now that we know that our wise rulers (indeed ALL wise rulers) lie all the time, about everything, why would we trust official population data?
3 Likes
Hi Chris, and peak peeps!
I’m listening to your interview with Luke Gromen, and first off, thank you for the incredible effort you put into understanding complex topics and sharing those insights with us. It’s clear you’re doing the hard work, and I really appreciate that.
I wanted to add my two cents on China because it often feels like the narrative swings between two extremes:
- They’re impossibly far ahead of us on everything, or
- They’re so far behind that we don’t need to pay attention.
My view is more nuanced. Based on my experience and observations:
1. Strengths and Weaknesses
- Manufacturing & Engineering: China is undeniably strong in manufacturing and certain types of engineering. They’ve built an impressive industrial base and are moving toward higher-end products. The sheer number of engineers they produce compared to us is very concerning.
- Low-Trust Society: At the same time, their society is extremely low trust, totalitarian, and increasingly dystopian. Combine that with their horrendous demographic trends, and I believe they’re heading toward a structural collapse within the next decade.
2. Propaganda and Reality
- The China Show: There’s a YouTube channel with 300+ episodes dissecting Chinese propaganda. I would recommend anyone who is in the ‘China is light years ahead’ camp to binge watch. One example: they took footage of a V-22 Osprey and claimed they had “conquered flight.” Another episode showed rotting, decaying “new” construction—entire cities built for millions, sitting vacant, falling apart.
- Lying as a Cultural Norm: Every Chinese national I’ve interacted with seemed conditioned to lie about everything.
- My wife had a colleague at Microsoft who repeatedly made absurd excuses for missed work.She consulted an expert, who told her this was cultural—delay, deny, then scramble at the last minute.
- My uncle lost big in backroom deals, trying to invest there. The price was always 40% higher than what was listed in print in the contracts, and they just said, ‘sue us’.
- A former Marine Colonel I worked with saw Chinese contractors build roads in Africa that crumbled in 18 months. Locals even used “China” as slang for “crap.”
- I’ve interviewed Chinese nationals who were terrified to agree with me, give basic info, fearing surveillance or that I was a “plant” reporting back to Chinese handlers.
- Some folks I knew adopted a child from China. The Chinese swore the young baby was healthy, only to find when they got there he had developmental issues that had not been communicated.
- At a macro level, look at their currency and bond market manipulation and shenanigans—it’s enough to make the Fed jealous. Evergrande. Dang…
3. Demographics: The Death Pyramid
Stable population is a master resource, just like energy. China’s demographic collapse is real:
- The average age is now 41, up 20 years in two decades.
- Their population pyramid looks like a death pyramid (China Population Pyramid 2025 - Demographics & Age Distribution | Population Pyramids).
- In less than a decade, they won’t have enough workers to sustain their current structure, especially in a low-trust society.
4. Strategic Vulnerabilities
- China imports massive amounts of oil through the Strait of Malacca. That’s a choke point easily controlled by NATO countries. If that strait were closed, their energy lifeline would be cut overnight.
Bottom line: Yes, China is good at manufacturing and has engineering talent, but they’re also plagued by systemic dishonesty, demographic collapse, and strategic vulnerabilities. They’re not 10 feet tall, and they’re not irrelevant; they’re a complex mix of strengths and fatal weaknesses.
6 Likes
I liked the observation that - society sacrificed the kids during Covid order to allegedly “Save Grandma” - just with the lockdowns & “social distancing.” The kids have figured this out.
Now imagine how this generation will respond once they discover the damage inflicted by that 72-shot childhood schedule, mandated by public “health”. Then pile on the mandated covid shot.
I think that’s coming.
12 Likes
Increasingly, an awful lot of narratives are no longer considered foundational truths. Instead, they are looked up upon as cover stories.
That is all the difference in the world.
6 Likes
Great idea!! I would welcome talking about topic like that… Especially when I have still(hopefully) good 15-20 years physical work in me…(51)
still salty about not buying BTC at $8 Peter?
anybody would be
I could have bought Bitcoin early on, did not and am not bitter about it.
I have never been convinced that in the end it’s not a pyramid scheme and therefore, I cannot morally participate. This may be a matter of ignorance and that is okay. They always say invest in what you understand anyway.
I almost bought some Etherium, which seemed more like buying into a software and platform, but still did not pull the switch on that either.
Not bitter even at todays prices.
3 Likes
Excellent essay, slyon. One of the more believable descriptions of the “big picture” I’ve read.
2 Likes
Glad it might help. Its been tough figuring out everything these past 5 years…and I think the next five years
are going to be really tough on us peasants.
1 Like
I do like this way of looking at wealth preservation. Back when this was developed by Fugger, “Cash” would be understood to mean, Silver. So in today’s terms, #4 should be both fiat currency and silver.
3 Likes
Heres a link to todays China update from Tony. The largest property manager still going in China has collapsed like Country Garden and Evergrande. China has some advantages but also some very serious cliffs approaching
1 Like
But what I want to know is - what happens if a load of Chinese savings go up in smoke? If anything, surely people have to continue to work rather than retire? A bit like if the US stock market falls or Bitcoin goes to zero. All the people are still there, needing to work (and moreso) and all the factories are still there.
Some money gets vapourised. Bad if it’s yours, but other than that - what?
Seriously, what’s the effect do people think?
1 Like
China already has a huge unemployment problem, especially among it’s young people, having an entire generation of elders competing for jobs with kids won’t be pretty.
Some very high percentage of municipal employees in Chinese cities have advanced degrees. They settled on muni work to get a job of some kind.
In some parts of China people pay bribes China to get their kids into the military.
I’m not going to deny that I can’t fully get my head around all this.
How does China have an unemployment problem when they make everything?
But, anyway, is the risk that too many unhappy people = civil unrest?
Longer term, I guess the demographic issue solves the “too many people” problem!