Luke Gromen: The Debt Dilemma and the Fork in the Road

Because as much as they make, they still have more people needing jobs. There factories are increasingly higher tech and more efficient. Meanwhile Vietnam, India, Turkey and former Soviet nations are all getting small pieces of the pie.

Overall unemployment is 5.1-5.3%, youth (ages16-24) is about 18% and yet better than the 18.9% that it was last year.

Yes. Keep in touch.

accidentally deleted post during update

from friday:

Are the men in the idea machine trying to take a paper knife to a full metal gunfight this friday in their margin manipulations in silver? I sense asian engineers and manufacturing realists might call out their optics bluffs pretty soon (maybe this weekend) , impervious even to paper margin nukes, and I might have to front yet more inflation in my vault insurance costs of my asian silver war chest by next week or at least next year, after only 60 days in the market. Does reality shine through or am i the one misfit to an optics paper reality in placing my money, AI and even morale bets all in on reality?

saturday update: my naive ramblings and gut feelings seem a bit prophetic against this analysis i just found (https://youtu.be/VajTt1hrT4k?si=zlyhBe5QeYfPV3Jl

sort of - I take your paper margin nuke in bankster spreadsheets and raise you 115m onze samsung engineering lab nuke in the periodic table. Who wins - a banster spreadsheet optics or the periodic table? ag

3 Likes

BTW my war chest gives me some personal stability while i kick off projects in oud oil, spices, food forests but also small scale gold/silver mining - i advise network of 150 rajas, datus and sultans across about 1/3 indonesia who can mitigate some risk and give access to land plus already have support of local governors and some seed investors lined up. Would be open to any silver miners interested in an abundance of unobtanium - especially to also build local battery value chain who are open to living in a natural reality. Might formalise some prospectus sometime but currently just flying on my naive ramblings and gut feel.

1 Like

My instincts are saying :thinking: this smells like Bre-X

Sunday Update: I just trying to chuck in my 2 cents relating to asia/engineer v idea machine/optics themes in talk - relating it to how my contacts will respond to build battery value chain and open viable mines seducing Samsung etc to invest for ag access but things change too fast for my narrative frame to hold. All relevant nations will have similar response - china since already blocked export - samsung already stepped out idea machine to grab mexico ag - usa and idea machine already planning seizure gun fight beyond paper knives etc. Our guts might be right but too much energy for mine to digest in last hyperactive 48 hours. Might need those food forests for healthy real gut when idea machine picks up physical guns to seize our metal. Is bondi massacre even part of same idea machine energy? Does anyone want pivot to privacy AI platform narrative to downstream side affects of this weekend for healthy real world head - or oud for heart (loved by korea and UAE)- but said too much already :slight_smile:

Indonesia definitely has high risks to be managed and barriers to entry. Rio Tinto had productive gold mine (Kelian - one of largest in world) in kalimatran somewhat near bre-X busang site - my friend rehabilitated it into rhino reserve.

There are many dodgy claims and many viable sites untapped due to barriers.

But local knowledge and local leader support mitigates some risk and barriers - else productive site will go on to remain unobtanium.

I not pushing single site (not actually pushing anything at this stage) but might pick best from many sites. Or drive from broader considerations of distribution value chain and battery factory.

I not coming at it from western perspective though did spend last 3 years implementing newmonts strategies working autonomy and automation at Caterpillar and did connect governor of s sulawesi to oz leaders - he has half global nickel and battery factories already underway. Not looking for detached investor - certainly not western pension fund. Just active in risk mitigation across a few projects ATM amid a lot of volatility in my networks. They get investments from middle east - UAE Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi offered 10b for renewables recently. Turkish investments incoming. Food forests and oud biotech project closer to my heart this month. And heart centred path to reality more fruitful anyway and more relevant to going “ all in on reality” so starting to regrety whole brittle “head centred” post thread on it. Will wait till produce prospectus for something concrete before discuss further. Would be happy to scrutinise if had something to scrutinise but just connecting dots on this weekends news that you and the silver market wont hear about till Monday anyway so jumping the gun a bit and just creating unfolding opportunity frame here from talk themes and metaphors.

(but from Lanci: “The Silver Short Squeeze Hasn’t Even Begun” - #32 by randommike - maybe samsung “hot”news just one more “recent” driver of weekend big ag shifts)

I would add financial/currency markets that can be “manipulated” domestic and international level. However (if we assume buffets and soroses dont do their plays) domestic “growth” is fueling work motivation. However that always only lasts so long labor costs are lower than import countries are willing to pay… China so far has been close to that, so they face “hollowing” of manufacturing pyramid from bottom… until nothing is left. Latter(total 100% hollowing of particular industry, also highest end) is pretty unlikely to happen soon as china has longterm planned to defend via raw materials and gold vaults against this fiat problem.
Thus it seems to happen in every country, they (manufacturing) are booming, workers demand above CPI payraises every year, until companies start moving production to cheaper places. All else being equal this alone hollows out (manufacturing) always. To put it other way, company matures, “stagnates”, bean counters take over and optimizing costs any means necessary becomes primary goal for (inside)culture and incentive structures for bonuses. Manipulating currency lower can prolong this but then raw materials have input cost so it goes only so far (Im not familiar of China dynamics in high detail but in europe this played out, granted euro and its structural features muddy this aspect harder to judge).

Add to this foreign countries have interest to manipulate currency and other factors for their various interests. Maybe Apple chose for example they hate chinese food and execs want to eat in indian small town (HQ). Whatever reasons there are, then they lobby government to push markets to make this eaten by financial markets and lo and behold they can say China isnt competitive anymore for their production.

Interesting tidbit in these seems to be how lifecycle of this phase fits in 4turnings: boom seems to be in 20-30 year range, also for China, eg one generation.

1 Like