After last week’s continued meltdown, stocks rebounded sharply earlier this week, with Tuesday’s gains setting an all-time one-day record for both point and percentage gain:
Questions we’re now hearing from PP.com readers over the past few days include:
Given the announced QE and $2 trillion stimulus package, is the bottom now in?
With the news that physical supply of gold is "running out", what does that mean for gold & silver prices? For the mining stocks?
What steps should investors like me be taking now?
To answer these questions, I just recorded another brief interview with the lead partners at New Harbor Financial, the financial advisor Peak Prosperity endorses.
While the S&P 500 remains down -25% since the February highs, New Harbor’s general portfolio is up over the same period. THAT’S the power of conservative management and prudent risk mitigation.
In the short video below, they emphasize that it’s not too late to take smart steps with your portfolio against further market downside:
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Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike and John can do so by clicking here.
And if you’re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over the past few weeks, we strongly urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your physical coronavirus preparations.
We recommend you do so in partnership with a professional financial advisor who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website. If you’ve already got one, great.
But if not, consider talking to the team at New Harbor. We’ve set up this ‘free consultation’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you.
I realize the majority of the readership here is not like me. Most are educated, well-to-do and are concerned about their stock portfolios.
On the other hand, I and the majority of poor and kinda middle class don’t need a financial advisor or are following the stock market because -
we have no extra money
we don’t have stocks in the stock market (except perhaps pensions)
many of us have no retirement
many of us are worried about how we can pay the electric bill and feed our kids
many of us have NO job
Sooo you’ll can understand why I am suggesting perhaps an article from Charles Hugh Smith on how the majority of people are going to survive.
I have tried to make this sound polite, while my rude, insensitive, self screams at me “ who cares about well-to-do folks and their worry about their money when a shit-load of people are worrying about how to survive. ( you know eat, car payment)
My kids own their own business and some of yours do to. What do you think their concerns are? Why are we not talking about that?
Cranky Granny
Sorry Adam!
I’m one of those that have been out of the market since '09. Been meaning to call NH for several years, perhaps now is the time. To respect their time constraints, and make the best of an initial consultation, what personal financial info should I have readily available when first contacting the folks at NH? Aloha, Steve.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/03/27/822407626/mystery-in-wuhan-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-negative-then-positive
The article suggests people are reinfected and even after recovery pick it up again. Theres a high likelihood, given the long life of the virus on many surfaces, that once their self-isolated environment is contaminated, they get reinfected over and over again.
As soon as the asymptomatic are released from quarantine, they will carry the virus back into the workplace and it will spike again.
Now there are over 40 known mutations and there’s no telling how those close relatives of the virus infecting you today will affect you tomorrow. I think this only gets worse, there’s no stopping this spread if the body doesn’t kill it every time it is reintroduced.
The only way to get the economy going again is to relax some sectors little by little, and trickle people back into the market so the virus runs its course through a smaller population sample and doesn’t overwhelm the medical system all at once. Only then can you get herd immunity and have a functional (though not necessarily thriving) economy.
That’s really all there is to do.
Here’s a first step people can take to help themselves financially right now. Dave Ramsey is offering a two week free trial of his program because of the circumstances of the corona virus. FREE! For people who have time on their hands now, they can easily go through the whole program in a week. https://www.daveramsey.com/?utm_source=google&utm_id=go_cmp-197939186_adg-10546208306_ad-229719307668_kwd-42626442_dev-c_ext-_prd-&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI06yYyrS76AIVrP_jBx03-QwZEAAYASAAEgLkDfD_BwE
Just go down to Try Financial Peace for Free and click on the Start Your Trial tab. Our church and many other churches offer this course for a very reasonable and worthwhile cost (of $100 if I recall correctly) and it has helped thousands of people. But it’s available now for free. There is other useful free information available from his organization as well. The organization does have a Christian world view but the information can help almost everyone.
It goes without saying that “In this world, you will have trouble” and these are indeed historically tough times for many but there are also proven strategies to address most of these troubles, if only we avail ourselves of them, persevere, and don’t lose heart.
This was really meant for a different thread but it still stands.
The banks and hedge funds are on very tenuous ground. Once Q1 financials are reported the markets will know the true cost of the virus, but to be honest, the virus is just a smokescreen for underlying issues in the market that were there since the bailouts in 08. I think bluechips are a good opportunity right now, but I expect the market to go lower after APR 1.
Steve -
The short form you fill out to schedule the consultation (found here) gives them a fine foundation for starting the discussion.
Beyond that, while not necessary, it would be helpful to have the following ready to share with NH to accelerate the conversation:
a breakdown of your main assets (401k, brokerage account, house, PMs, etc) and liabilities (mortgage, other large debts, kids' college, aging parent to support, etc) with ballpark $ estimates of each
Your annual income and any material changes you may expect it will undergo in the next 5-10 years
financial goals (retire at age X with $Y in savings/$Z in investment income, build our dream home, start a company, sail around the world for year, etc)
your level of risk tolerance
Other than that, just bring your aloha spirit!
cheers,
A
I think your heart in in the right place and your suggestion certainly has a great deal of value.
However, I invite you to see the underlying message. If you are not in the position of having to need the services of a financial planner or be able to invest in the stock market then you might want to learn to be better managers of your finances. A little insulting, it’s not money management its no Job and few prospects that is the problem.
Copious amounts of people just lost their jobs. Small businesses have no business! Taking Dave Ramsey’s class, regardless of how good it is - isn’t the answer. Your point - you are trying to help. I acknowledge and am grateful. My point - a lot, many, many people are hurting and the main topic seems to be omg, lets get the financial advisors and protect our precious portfolios. Where are the discussions regarding the majority of the population and what they are going through? I would not say anything but there has not been balance. I get this is Chris and Adam’s website. But if the message is “lets create a world worth inheriting” that does not mean you get to be rich while me and mine have no jobs and are hungry. That’s not a world worth inheriting.
The Great Depression II will be nothing like the first one. People are now selfish, mean, have few morals, were raised on porn and violence and are armed. The plight of the poor, middle class, and demoralized can only be ignored and hidden for so long. Then all the numbers on your portfolios wont mean much.
Just my opinion. When your closer to the bottom your view is different. And you should be wary, very.
Disappointed Granny
Granny,
I hear you. Suggestions for people of modest means to “figure it out better,” miss the context that the system itself is set up to ensure that the vast majority of people don’t have enough. Why? Because there actually isn’t enough. There is always less currency than debt in the system because the currency is created at the time a loan is issued. The interest is not. Therefore, there must always be more debt issued, in order to cover the interest on the previous loans, and therefore the system must perpetually grow.
To say it another way: there is a built-in scarcity of the thing people need to survive (currency) which we experience as a chronic sense of there not being enough (not as the system growing too much). We experience it this way because that’s what’s actually happening! This built-in dynamic is what forces us to compete with each other to win the currency we need to pay our debts (simply for existing, house, car, etc… I’m not talking about luxuries) and also sets up a certain segment of the population to never have enough unless more debt is created. Systems produce outcomes based on how the system is set up. Poverty is an outcome of the system we have. If we want a different outcome, we need a different system.
Sound money- backed by gold and silver- is the historical default that will likely surface again at some point. But all the gold and silver in the world cannot account for or replace clean air or water, a functional eco-system, insects to pollinate plants, predictable weather patterns in which food can be reliably grown, etc… So I can’t help but wonder, and would be very interested to hear what CM or CHS has to say about it, at what point will we be able to shift to a new way of thinking about value? Where what is on the surface (trees, plants, oxygen-givers, pollinators, ecosystems) are actually valued more than what is in the ground (gold, silver, oil). Could we back our currency by carbon sequestration or oxygen production as the most valuable commodity (since every living thing actually depends on it…) and thereby protect the means of production for life itself? At what point will we shift to basing our economic models on something other than production?
We are already seeing the value of economic inactivity in terms of halting the spread of this virus. It’s throwing a huge wrench in the workings of our conventional world-view of where value lies. And many are awakening to another perspective, at least the one that is emerging for me, as I face the reality that I cannot hold onto what was, and I also cannot resist what is coming, is that there is a reality here that cannot be entirely removed by the crumbling illusions about what wealth and value are.
People exist. Plants exist. The sun rises. The rain falls. People have knowledge and skills. People have relationships. Those things will remain regardless of what happens to our financial system and our currency. A functioning economy makes it easier to get the things we need. But a non-functioning economy doesn’t erase the other 7 forms of capital.
So in that sense, those of us with limited means, who have invested in other forms of capital, may be ahead of the curve in terms of being able to lead those who have focused on primarily financial capital. Which is not to say that the harsh realities of being poor or middle class don’t exist. They do! They are real! For millions of us, probably more than are ready for it, because the illusion of the middle class still exists in the US. But it doesn’t really. The middle, and even upper middle, are closer to the bottom than most realize. And that is going to be incredibly disorienting for a lot of people. To think they are secure and suddenly find that the illusion of security has vanished.
Which is why, those of us who can and have prepared for ourselves, need to stand ready to assist those who are just now going through their own adjustment reactions. But beyond that, we also get to stand ready to push for an arrangement of our economy that does not set us up against each other in the way that the current arrangement does and to stand ready to say we want a system that actually meets human needs instead of profiting off the deprivation of them (depleted food system, chronic health issues, shortages of PPE for medical workers.) That is the piece that has been missing for me on this website. It’s bigger than individually attempting to create a world worth inheriting, to actually create such a world it will require the majority of people to rise up and demand real change. That requires leadership and bridging across common divides. We have a start, ironically, with the social distancing. People limiting their own activities/desires for the good of the whole. How do we go about expanding that into a new understanding of economy?
I did a consultation with the financial advisors. The advisor was informative and helpful. Though I knew I was in the wrong place early in the discussion when he told me their clients were typically in the one to ten million dollar range of investment assets.
I asked what the minimum investment would be. The response was they would like to see a minimum of $100k.
I do have some assets, but mostly in rental property and PM’s. Without 100K of cash to invest, I did not feel the financial advisors are very interested in me as a client.
He was helpful and kind. He took time with me to discuss my situation. He felt I was pretty well diversified already and didn’t appear to be interested in taking me on as a client without at least $100k to invest.
yagasjai,
I wish I could give you 2 likes, did give you one. Your post was well said and thoughtful. It reminds me of the paradigm shift (which I’ve thought of more than once recently) I have heard of for the last few years, in numerous books and online articles, guest appearances from authors, etc. One example, Charles Einstein has been to Portland a few times and I’ve heard him twice (and I recognized a few people there), that the new paradigm needs to be born at the same time (and we go through birthing pains) as the old paradigm of greed and competition is collapsing and dying… This pandemic sure seems to be shaking up things, both our internal and external worlds…
Linda
What factors do you think determine the difference between someone who achieves a certain level of financial security and someone who doesn’t?
Permit me if I may to present a real life example. You have two families. Both have a husband and wife with two children, a boy and a girl with the same spread in ages. Both have comparable backgrounds of coming from poor families with education at or below high school level. Both had a head of household with the same blue collar job. Both experienced times in their life of unemployment and serious illness of a family member. Both lived in comparable houses in comparable communities with comparable socioeconomic demographics. Both had similar lives with regards to family relationships, friendships, social lives, etc. One wound up a widow living in poverty. One wound up a widow with a 7 figure portfolio, living frugally but securely. What do you think led to these differences? Feel free to speculate and write whatever you think, be it fact or fiction. This is a useful thought exercise.
BTW, if you take the time to go through videos, blogs, etc. on DR’s site, you’ll find it’s about more than just money management.
And here’s a disclaimer. I don’t use a financial planner. Too expensive. I also am not invested in the stock market. Too risky.
Before blind auditions the percentage of women in major symphony orchestras was 5%. Today, 25 years layer its close to 50%.
There could be exhaustive discussions about bias, discrimination, instinctive judgement. Hard work, natural ability and on and on. But the solution was not to point fingers it was to change the context. Screens were put up so the judges had NO visuals to judge, only the ability to hear the performer. When the context was changed, the outcome changed.
AKGrannyWGrit
The question was about apples and you didn’t reply even about oranges. You told me the equivalent (in terms of relevance) of the time of day. I don’t get what discrimination against women has to do with the question I posed.
So I’ll pose the question again with a slight change.
What factors do you think determine the difference between someone who achieves a certain level of financial security and someone who doesn’t, given that the two are approximately equivalent in their life circumstances?
I’m just attempting to use the Socratic method here applied to the problem.
>
Two people are equivalent in musical ability and “pre screen auditions” 95% were men. “Post screen” auditions the gender numbers became almost equal. Change the context, remove the bias and the outcome changed.
Thats all the answer I am going to give. It is perfectly sufficient!?
My point – a lot, many, many people are hurting and the main topic seems to be omg, lets get the financial advisors and protect our precious portfolios. Where are the discussions regarding the majority of the population and what they are going through? I would not say anything but there has not been balance. I get this is Chris and Adam’s website. But if the message is “lets create a world worth inheriting” that does not mean you get to be rich while me and mine have no jobs and are hungry. That’s not a world worth inheriting.
Granny I have to disagree with you. Ao's desire to make sure his clan is protected first is not unreasonable. You can't help others, if you are in a position of weakness. I didn't see where Ao wanted to profit off of others misfortunes. And its not Ao's responsibility to neglect their welfare to try and right systemic cultural wrongs.
Most of us are here because we recognize that the present system is not working and we want to at least make sure our own welfare is protected. Once that is secure, I see many here who will probably step forward to help those less fortunate. But you can't blame people who want to secure their own safety first, like you just did, for the wrongs in our society.
Most of us are here because we recognize that the present system is not working and we want to at least make sure our own welfare is protected. Once that is secure, I see many here who will probably step forward to help those less fortunate. But you can’t blame People who want to secure their own safety first, like you just did, for the wrongs in our society.
Like the bankers and politicians and corporate crooks. Me and mine at the expense of you and yours. I get it. But that is not creating a world worth inheriting in my book.
Perhaps this video explains what I seem to be unable to get across.
https://youtu.be/dgaLZu700pU
It’s fascinating to see how blame has crept into this conversation and derailed us from seeing our common purpose. I picked up on a subtext of blame in ao’s response to AKGrannyWGrit which read to me as the implication, whether it was intended or not, what came across to me with the “question posed” post, was that if a person was not somehow able to pull themselves out of poverty by their bootstraps then in some way it was their own fault or personal failing (is in some way to blame), the counterpoint being that anyone who is able to make their way out is free from blame. Yet I’m not sure what any of us actually want is finger pointing, which tends to be ineffective because blame is like a hot potato that no one wants to land on them. If the focus is there, we miss the bigger issue, which is the nature of the system and how the collapse of this system is going to land disproportionately on certain segments of the population specifically because of the way that system has siphoned resources away from the vast majority of us.
The answer is both/and. It’s not either/or. Certainly individuals or clans (as dtrammel points out) being as prepared as possible removes a certain burden from an overloaded medical system, and as CM points out, we who can avoid getting caught it in can then be in a position to help. AND it is also true that many people are caught in it now, and many more will be caught it in, through no fault of their own, simply by virtue of where they landed when they were born and what assets (opportunities/resources) and liabilities (hardships/oppressions) they had to contend with in their lives. I’ve read studies that show that with an inordinate amount of luck, for something like 20 consecutive years, a person can pull themselves out of poverty in the US. But with the deck stacked so heavily against so many people, can we be 100% sure that only determination, fortitude, and frugality that are essential ingredients that determine whether a person “makes it” or not? I would think that access to a like-minded community, possibly a mentor, a school teacher that believed in you, and those kinds of intangibles are also contributing factors to a person’s “success.” But that goes back to the question of the paradigm shift that is upon us- do we still want the 7-figure salary to be the yardstick by which we measure success in the first place?
I was raised by school teachers, a very high value was placed on good grades, and I was regularly top of my class. For years I never understood there was any other way to measure success in that setting, because that was the way I had always been measured. But then I came to understand that some parents saw it differently than mine did. Some parents were more pleased that their child was happy, enjoyed their life or had a network of good, close, reliable friends, for example. Even if they didn’t get straight A’s. Where my father grilled me, after getting a 99% on the 9th grade REGENTS math test (NY State exam) when I was only in 8th grade, as to what I had missed, HE was missing something as well. He could have picked another standard to measure my success by. And in this time of economic collapse, when we tend to judge ourselves and each other by a particular measuring stick, it seems like a good time to be asking if that’s the same measuring stick we want to keep using going forward.
