Will this flood of emergency liquidity staunch the economic damage industries are suffering? Will it push asset prices back up, undoing the recent market losses?
As we’ve been doing throughout the recent market volatility, we just reached out to the lead partners at New Harbor Financial, Peak Prosperity’s endorsed financial advisor, to get their latest perspective on these questions:
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Anyone interested in scheduling a free consultation and portfolio review with Mike and John can do so by clicking here.
And if you’re one of the many readers brand new to Peak Prosperity over the past few weeks, we strongly urge you get your financial situation in order in parallel with your physical coronavirus preparations.
We recommend you do so in partnership with a professional financial advisor who understands the macro risks to the market that we discuss on this website. If you’ve already got one, great.
But if not, consider talking to the team at New Harbor. We’ve set up this ‘free consultation’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you.
Record job losses and the Dow is inching up. GM, Ford and Chrysler are all in survival mode and the Dow keeps inching up. Apple expects much lower earnings and possible delay of products this fall and the Dow keeps inching up. WTF!?
I said it before and it’s my belief that the Dow will match and possibly surpass its all time highs for the reasons this article mentions. I knew the PPT and the Fed were juicing the markets with Monopoly money but not to the extent mentioned here.
It appears to me that Wall Street has become the economy.
i just sold 15 lambs for an almost record price. Us little farmers who have desirable commodities are still in business, however, my solo optometric practice is losing about 9000.00$ per month.
My garden is gorgeous, and…
robie,husband,father,farmer,optometrist
Create a daily QLD chart for free on stockcharts.com
Add 14 day exponential moving average
Trade in the direction of the slope of that 14 day line
Add 50 day exponential moving average for more confirmation but its a lagard.
If the lines cross, you must make a decision
Market going down - buy QID
After each trade set a stop loss at 8%
Market going up - buy QLD
After each trade set a stop loss at 8%
Move your stop loss as you make profits
Not sure, sit in cash, close all positions
Can be done in self directed IRA
Want to learn more - read Trading Day by Day by Chick Goslin https://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Run your own math on this. Do your own analysis.
about the idea that “In the next crisis the Fed will be out of ammo and won’t be able do anything.” Obviously, they’re doing a lot, some of it allegedly illegal. I think they can keep going with more and more even if it’s illegal. Who’s going to stop them or even accuse them? I’m much more open to the concept “Whatever the Fed does, it ultimately won’t work.” We’ll see if 2020 is “ultimately.” It sure seems like it. So I expect things to get weirder and weirder.
The FED is not printing money, its providing loans, and the loans they are providing are the equivalent of purchasing treasurys as they are backed by the US government. The FED is a bank in the business of banking, not taking on junk debt out of goodness of its heart. When these loans start failing, which everyone knows they may soon, which is why FED took them on (to buy time to see if economy starts soon and settles cash problems), and many will go bad, the US government will need to make good on those loans to the FED.
But in middle of recession, and tax revenues severely depleted, the question is how? Will there be a tax on bank deposits? Some new tax? Whatever it is, credit is going to contract big time no matter how low interest rates are as nobody is going to want to lend in this environment.
And as credit contracts, demand curves for these credit assets shift sharply to the left and prices deflate.
Sure, I buy supply side shocks that can bring up prices in some major consumer markets, but the demand side may shift more violently as credit completely dries up, unemployment runs rampant, etc, and that will take over all else, as the amount of debt that needs to deflate to bring us back to normal is enormous.
The last 10 years were just a temporary throw over after the financial crisis, that will be completely corrected in the near future. Buyer beware, deflation is a horrible event, and made even more horrible if you are positioning yourself for hyperinflation.
The majority of memberships on PP must be wealthy, white and middle aged. At least I suspect so. Just speculating. In discussing the economy and the Pandemic the financial conversations focuses on financial planners, protecting investments, managing ones portfolio and preserving wealth. Interesting
It feels like The Chamber of Commerce. I was a member for a while as I own a small (very small) business. Gee no business now☹️Everyone at the Chamber is nice, the meetings are informative and its a good place to network. However, when there are ballot measures to be voted on the Chamber supports Big Business. It’s not Big Business at the meetings, it’s small and medium sized businesses. Maybe, occasionally a few representatives from big business. Interesting that the Chamber panders to Big Business but is made up of mostly small and medium businesses. Guess it’s a follow the money organization. Perhaps thats just my observation.
On Zerohedge today a headline reads ‘Breadlines Erupt Across America As Lockdowns Crush America’s “Working Poor”
Then - here
But if not, consider talking to the team at New Harbor. We’ve set up this ‘free consultation’ relationship with them to help folks exactly like you.
Exactly like me, I doubt it. Hmm what should I ask in my consultation? I know how do you explain to someone who - looses their job and are facing complete devastation, - - that it’s not their fault? Or what do you say when a parent says it’s my job to provide for my kids and if I can't I must be a failure? No, I don’t think they are taking those kinds of questions. And from the Zerohedge article above those questions are, no doubt, pervasive.
The sad thing is as the Country disintegrates the numbers on your portfolios reflecting your wealth might not be worth as much as you think. My husband like to look at his retirement portfolio too, just recently recalculated it and it lost almost half its value. My comment, if it’s not tangible it’s not yours.
A world worth inheriting?
AKGrannyWGrit
We have made it repetitively clear for a decade that we have a business relationship with New Harbor Financial. One that is necessary in order to be able to refer interested people to them (or any financial advisor) in an SEC-compliant manner.
That is made crystal clear on the website (www.greylockpeak.com) Peak Prosperity users must go through to request a free consultation with New Harbor, as well as in the downloadable forms everyone must actively acknowledge before such a request can be submitted. The website also specifies the exact financial terms of the relationship.
In addition to that, anyone we refer over to New Harbor who decides they’d like to open an account with them MUST confirm in writing that they have read the disclosure statement specifying the details of the relationship.
And a reminder: our relationship with New Harbor does NOT impact pricing in any adverse way. You receive the same fee structure being referred by us as if you had walked unsolicited through their office front door.
Geez, Granny, I get tired of your “vice-signaling” toward anyone who you assume might be better off than you, and wants to protect their wealth. May I suggest if you don’t like the relationship PP has with New Harbor, keep it, and your personal finances, to yourself. Your posts on this topic are getting boring. Aloha, be well, Steve
your “vice-signaling” toward anyone who you assume might be better off than you, and wants to protect their wealth.
But it’s not true, certainly people want to protect their wealth, thats a given.
May I suggest if you don’t like the relationship PP has with New Harbor, keep it, and your personal finances, to yourself.
I have no problem with PP relationship with New Harbor. And you know nothing about my finances.
Your posts on this topic are getting boring.
What you find interesting or boring is not my problem or responsibility.
Here the issue, millions of people are affected by this crisis and most are not well to do. The effects are catastrophic. You’ll can try to ignore that. (no articles thus far has addressed it) But, like Gerald Celeste says “when people have nothing left to loose. - They loose it!” And when they loose it lots of people are going to say OMG didn’t see that coming. I see it, don’t you?
AKGrannyWGrit
I’ve heard all this before, verbatim this all sounds like 2008-09. In retrospect I thought pretty much what these good folks had advised when I was looking back in the day for how I should manage my funds as we went thru the last financial crisis. What happened then was the FED did things that cause some severe reactions by Chris and everyone else in the market. " Super Inflation, never done before, we are bankrupt and the world will see what we are doing and bail on us and we will become a Banana Republic ". All of these things were said and were wrong. We never got the Inflation and when Trump arrived we became a well run economy and everyone was happy and employed. We could argue again at what costs. All that matters is that moment in time and is everyone benefitting from the policy’s and according to Michigan’s consumer confidence we were buzzing along. What happened is we were all so intrench in our BIASES that we couldn’t get out of our own ways to see other possibility’s or outcomes. One of Chris favorite lines was: if I fell asleep and were to open my eyes today I would not recognize or even understand how all this happened without major issues. He wouldn’t have been able to wrap his head around it. Now, this isn’t an exact quote at all but is what was meant.
Now enter this Virus. The FED is committed to fully fund and then some everything in the market to keep it liquid. They have said they will back stop everything so why on earth would anyone fight the FED now!? The FED put so many trillions of dollars into the market in 2008-09 that it’s still floating around in our economy today! That’s what trillions due and now their pumping more into an economy still not too far away from their all time highs and this correction is self inflicted. I agree with Trump, if we get lucky and can get the economy started in anyway that it could be better, we certainly will have a lot of cash sloshing about to give everyone a loan to improve even their business before the crisis. The time to remodel and sharpen you blades is now while we have the time and are not doing anything. I just think the FED is going to win this battle too, for now, and in some decade from now it may all come crashing down but that time isn’t now. Even in the Great Depression we had wonderful rally’s, in the financial crisis we went from 667 to 3000 plus in the S&P in 10 years, and it happened because of all the trillions thrown at that crisis. Well, the Fed is throwing way more at the economy now than then so it will land somewhere.
I am now benefitting from oil being at the very bottom. Much more than double the shares can be purchased and have been, that’s a GIFT!!!. No way in hell will oil stay at $23 a barrel for very long and I’m banking on the fact that the cars and trucks will roll again soon and that the manufactures and Industry’s will turn the lights back on. Oil will rebound and I have no doubts about that. No one can argue that Saudi Arabia and Russia will do what’s right and even if they have a little fun they have nowhere to store the extra oil so will be forced by Supply and Demand to shut in production. In the shale space, same thing, the rigs will be laid down. All over the world this will happen and the economy’s all over the world will start producing things again, in drips and drabs maybe too but, those drips and drabs represent a lot of oil still and prices will rise unless their is a managed bottom where everyone can stay afloat. I know this, Trump will never allow our oil industry to fail, no way. We’ve seen this play out not long ago and small fortunes were made betting on oil back in 2008 before the bottom hit and I’m only focused on oil. Why?, well, oil is the first to show the economy is faltering and now will show the lights are being turned back on. Imagine, the whole world was shut down for business, oil demand immediately crashed. Now, just watch how fast oil rebounds, it won’t be long either.
I consider the very bottom as it is now: A price where no one world wide can make money and that’s no one. I also see the price as having to be at a level where the Industry doesn’t go completely belly up and enough reserves are stored so when this economy gets its restart that almost overnight oil price have to rise because you can’t get any lower. I say that fall back price position needs to be $50-$55 a barrel, not ideal but survivable. That keeps you out of court and your employees gainfully employed. So, while I appreciate the conservative approach here I don’t necessarily believe you have to be out of the market waiting for a better entry. Lots of funny business is going on, no doubts but there will be a day where soon the switch to our start up will hit to the on position and it is closer than we think. It is then you can start clicking away all the barrels of oil that will be needed just to run an economy at 50%!
The streets will carry the cars and trucks, planes will fly again, trains will run again and life slowly but surely gets back to a state where we can rebuild the new economy as the ashes of the old one get carted away to the nearest landfill. Be safe Folks. STFH has worked up and until now. I do think you can start rolling back in and history does show that being the early bird assures you of getting more worms. I may decide to get back out, I’m not married to anything, I will change if the data changes. For now, I just think we have thrown so many trillions into this economy that is still being elevated by the trillions spend into it way back in 2008=09. Just think what will happen with all this pent up Demand and we get our cash payouts!!! That check won’t last 10 minutes before it is spent. So, my God, the velocity of money will be as an atom is while floating around at CERN, it will just gather speed and pretty soon it will be everywhere, and everyone will grab a few penny’s at a time as it passes buy. We live in the BEST of times at the worst of times. Peace
Adam, I’m writing this this with a heavy heart and mixed feelings.
In the interests of full disclosure and transparency, I think you should note up front any aspect of profitability or financial remuneration between PP/its principals at any initial communications (e.g., PP, videos featuring NH and thereafter). I also think that it would be helpful and efficient if PP/NH would specify up front the financial thresholds, if any, (e.g., $100,000+) in portfolio valuations for NH active account management.
Otherwise, I am so in support of PP’s mission, yet troubled by what I perceive as the disconnect between opportunistic investing guidance and the dire experiences of the larger population during this coronavirus pandemic.
Yesterday, 10,000 families lined-up for food donations from the San Antonio food bank and nearly 17M people filed for unemployment in the past three weeks (of those that we able to get through the dysfunctional unemployment website application systems). It is difficult not to sense the human distress in those figures, but it is undoubtedly indicative of the extreme hardship many families are experiencing due to this coronavirus pandemic.
Meanwhile you’re asking the NH folks what people with $200,000 or more in cash should invest in to protect their wealth. Most households do not have $200,000 or more to invest. That should be a cold, hard disconnected-reality check for all concerned.
Many of us in the trenches of keeping our families and economies together need information that we can share in how to do so given extremely limited resources. Some very basic information about practical and emotional resilience/guidance gleaned from the Resilience PP content would be welcomed and of great assistance.
Quite frankly, I personally do not have $200,000 in cash waiting around in search of a profitable investment manager or vehicle. I am awaiting my highly-suspect but still valuable “Stimulus” scam-check as it will help me further my personal, financial independence (debt/reductions) goals despite the charlatan government assertions and real long-term costs. (We live to fight another day.) Questions abound as to how best to deploy those extremely limited funds.
I have loved ones that are out of work and/or struggling to keep emotionally and financially afloat during this CV pandemic crisis, and trying to plan for a very uncertain future thereafter–whenever that may be.
A few of us here at PP may have thousands of dollars in cash on the sidelines waiting to be invested, while many more may be using our sparse resources to keep ourselves and our loved ones afloat throughout and hopefully past this economic tsunami.
Granny, I like you, you have merit. Now, just walk away, enjoy your time until you/we get out of prison. You offered your piece and I have no issues with it, and I imagine no one has issue either. Thatch just needed for some reason to bully you so let him this one time. Take it for the TEAM. You don’t know him or he you. Granny, I love you Man, I have enjoyed reading you over the last decade and you just take the high road. Please. Peace
Folks, Chris and Adam are in the business of making whatever money they can and it’s none of our business. It’s their risk and they deserve what they get. Now, they happen to be of high character people too, they don’t hide and aren’t trying a fast one as they support all their business with details and show all of us what the arraignment is. I will forever shake my head at those who can get free content here, like the Coronavirus videos Chris and Adam give just about every day. That has been a terrific series of information that has had to make your life better for them sharing their thoughts. They have for me. So, if you were to ask me a personal financial question about what I do or make, I assure you you would get the respectful reply from me: It’s none of your F-ing business but, thankfully, we will never have that conversation. Chris and Adam have for 12 years put it all on the line and whatever they get from their education and hard work is fine with me. Peace
Sure there are snapback rallies during the times mentioned, but at what volatility. Everyone controls their own account, I just think that when referring to that as opportunity, its the same as playing roulette and thinking you can just keep doubling your bet.
Velocity of Money has been slowing for years, not just during this period, and the FED's almighty power is very much dependant on confidence. The FED is not backstopping anything, the US government is and always has; as the US government guarantees the loans, the FED is in great position.
In essence, you are not fighting the FED in believing that monetezation will not reinflate the bubble. You are actually not fighting anyone...who is fighting is the US government for time in the hopes that the cash situation will improve dramatically with a restart to the economy. The FED already made it clear that it is backstopping even "junk" debt which means the US government is guaranteeing "junk" which means that tax revenues are backstopping "Junk". But as these revenues will be significantly depleted, whats going to backstop them? Personal savings/deposits? And what if they aren't enough?
The bottom line is that all the monetization pales in comparison to the amount of credit that is out there. Credit will contract under this environment, and whatever new debt is issued will have to be at greater rates to account for the risk. If we can't afford the debt now, at historically low rates, what happens at higher rates?
The system must deflate.
