Neil Howe: The Fourth Turning Has Arrived

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101

Treebeard,
I understand your feelings. Does it really matter in the end what SS was/is? It seems like every sector of society is marbled with corruption these days. Self-interest is put before the common interest. Laws and regulations only work if those in charge of implementing them are honest. When corruption takes hold, and is officially sanctioned as it is now, people are inclined to mimic it in their own lives. "Everybody's doing it, may as well get what I can."  We're all worse off when there are no real consequences for poor behavior. IWhen large "legitimate" organizations (governmental and nongovernnmental) get away with murder and no one goes to jail, trust is broken and faith is lost. The edifice of civilization trembles and crumbles from inner rot.

It seems to me that there are any number of lessons to be learned. First, we are all connected. Everyone matters and what we do as individuals matters. Second, actions have consequences. Thinking we can get away with a wrong without it affecting anyone/thing is unrealistic. The impact always crops up somewhere (i.e. no money in the SS "pot"). Stripped of dogma, the true essence of all religious teachings agree on the basics including the Golden Rule: do unto others as you would have them do unto you". Consider all of these as universal laws. Understanding them and applying them makes for a more highly functioning society. When they are broken, chaos insues. We all suffer.

The cycles of life proceed, civilizations rise and fall. Until we learn these lessons, and more, nothing fundamentally changes. We all have an ultimate choice: towards life or away from life. Does my life support and enhance vibrant life or does it contribute to decay and rot? No one is perfect but the important thing is to strive for one's life to reflect more good than bad. We are seeing the results in our global society when the bad outweighs the good. It's very real.

Whenever I feel discouraged and in despair, I keep coming back to the only thing I have power over - myself. Healthy relationships are built on love, respect, integrity, accountability, commitment, and honesty. From that comes trust over time. The more I can exemplify these qualities in my daily life, in my relationships, the more of a positive impact I can have on those around me. It doesn't seem like much some days, but it's what I have to give. Even when I fail, intent still remains important.

So I choose life even when it seems like the planet is dying and all may be lost. I choose life even when bankers lie and cheat, corporations place profits over people, and governments spy on and disenfranchise their citizens. No matter what the future brings - and no one really knows exactly how it will play out - I can still use the power of choice. That's all any of us really have.

All of us at PP clearly see what isn't working even if we disagree on the details at times (insurance? welfare?). What we do have is the positive power of the example of our lives wherever we find ourselves. That's golden, that's currency that can never be destroyed. And reserves are infinite.

Joyce

102

Treebeard -


That was a little out of line, was a little acid this morning, perhaps its all this heat.  Maybe a lot out of line.  I'm a  little down on the human project as of late.

The funny thing is, I actually liked your points!  You're right about the pay-ins to SS of course - no participation means no benefits - and your criticisms helped me to refine my perspective.  It was a part I missed.  I actually like these sorts of discussions; understanding how things really work is because of some personality quirk important to me, not a waste of time at all.  But I also understand not everyone feels like that. Possibly SS was a virtue made of necessity.  Perhaps in order to avoid the threat of the US going communist, they felt they had to put something in place.  Alas it was poorly designed, neither retirement program with a real pot-o-money, nor social welfare according to need.  I recall reading that FDR wanted to slam something into place that would get money to people quickly.  What we got was a system which pretended to be a retirement program for purposes of eligibility and achieving political buy-in, while being funded like a standard government transfer payment system (i.e. welfare program) with no pot of money.  There.  That's the description I like best. I do agree that corruption is endemic - both the big stuff at the banks, corporate capture of the regulatory process to their own advantage, revolving door government/industry, as well as the small stuff gaming the welfare/disability system.  CHS describes it best for me.  Another friend calls the transfer payments "anti-riot insurance" - to keep the people asleep and bought off. I used to get very upset about all this stuff, especially the stuff with all the banker/sociopathic behavior.  In fact, its wrong to single out the bankers - sociopathic behavior is pretty much endemic in society right now, especially in the organization of the big cartels.   In order to deal with it emotionally, I had to distance myself from it, to see it from the viewpoint of a historian or a political scientist.  Perhaps that's some sort of Kubler-Ross stages of grief thing, however I somehow don't see myself getting to acceptance.  Denial-Anger-Release-Detachment was more my process, perhaps more about biding my time waiting for the right moment.  "Its Not Yet Time" helps to keep me calm. From that viewpoint, I think that human society tends to move in long cycles; one hopes we are at or near Peak Corruption.  Greed and overreach should theoretically bring with it the seeds of its own destruction.  The greedier they are, the more violent the reaction will be when it all blows up.  Its just a matter of time. Or so the theory goes.  
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Thanks for your thoughtful responses.  Dave, you did hit the nail on the head with your summary paragraph, I would agree. Thanks again for your forebearance at my misdirected frustrations.  Your responses remind me of why I love being a part of this great community

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Dave - I like your phrase "Peak Corrupton"! Wouldn't it be great if Hubbert's curve applied to it? Is it me, or does it seem like more things are coming to the surface? Revelations include (in no particular order): pedophiles in the Catholic church; TBTF banks; the Libor scandal; Madoff; banks laundering cartel money; the fall of dictators; Fast & Furious; NSA spying; CIA drug running; corrupt regulators; corrupt politicians and on and on. Sometimes when I get overwhelmed by all the horrible news stories, I like to reframe it as rot rising to the surface where it can be cleansed in the light of day. Until it does, it continues to poison the body causing systemic illness. So maybe we should rejoice whenever some preciously hidden pocket of corruption is revealed. enlightened
Joyce

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Joyce -Hmm, I think I like where you are going a bit better.  I don't think its Peak Corruption with a slow fade-away down the back-side.  My hope is rather its what Martin Armstrong calls a Phase Transition; a hyperbolic rise in revealed societal control fraud with a blow-off top.  It certainly does seem to be going straight up right now.  And along with you, I hope that each revelation brings that much more awareness to everyone, culminating in an eventual loss of faith in the status quo.
If we add it all up - you made a good down-payment, to it we can add mortgage fraud, robo-signing/fraudclosure fraud, executive-directed HAMP fraud at BofA (and likely others), Monsanto's Roundup-Ready corn, BGH/BST, absurd hospital pricing of basic medical care and the resultant multimillion dollar administrator salaries, bloated retirement benefits for the upper-level bureaucrats due to last-year salary gamesmanship, police enforcement of laws strictly to raise revenues, constitutional suspension of search/seizure in "border areas", education loan burdens of 250k for undergraduates, a hugely obese population whose diets are overtaken by fast food and sugar resulting in an epidemic of diabetes, an eight-year trillion dollar war started on a search for non-existent WMD, "news" programs that consist mainly of cheerleading for the Red/Blue front men, inability to move around the country without showing "papers, please", GPS tracking (and remote-audio/video bugging ability) of every citizen through mobile phones, inability to transfer more than $3k without bankers acting as proxy government interrogators, complete IRS access to credit card and banking records to track our spending, social media where we voluntarily construct a dossier on ourselves and our friends, a multi-generational public and private debt bubble that has successfully ensured decades of debt-slavery for most if not all the remaining sane and capable people, and there's peak everything too of course - and this is all the provable stuff.  Overprescribed psych drugs the possible cause of mass-shootings.  A 9/11 conspiracy.  Tanks owned by the DHS.  An education system specifically designed to train order-following robots for factories while prolonging adolescence rather than people who can think critically.  And you can add in the usual suspects like UFOs, suppressed over-unity energy, lone gunmen, the Amero, FEMA concentration camps, and the rest.  But these days, you don't need a tinfoil hat to sound crazy, you just need to talk about the stuff that's documented.
When woven together as a tapestry, what's the picture we have?  If you postulated a group of people in positions of influence whose goal was to…I dunno, sap and impurify our precious bodily fluids, you could hardly have executed a more effective program.  I'm not saying such a program exists.  But if it does, I have to say, Mission Largely Accomplished.  It does make me wonder.
Now where was my optimistic viewpoint again?  Release.  Detachment.  There, that's better.
 

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[quote=treebeard]
There is no way in heck that SS, the retirement protion, can be construed as "welfare", no matter how twisted your logic is.
I would have paid in about $250,000 and if I lived 20 years past retirement, I would have received about $575,000. 
 Has it been run like a ponzi scheme in the past resulting it needing to be run like a welfare program in the future?  Yes.  [/quote]
It was designed as a bernie madoff ponzi scheme from the beginning.
We have been led down this rosy entitlement path called social security.
Using your own example, you are entitled to receive 2x what you put into the system. Why would you receive 1 penny more than you put into the system?  It was not an investment, it was paying off current retirees… aka ponzi.
The rules of exponentials are meaningless in the long tails, but become a bitch when they start accelerating.

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[quote]Using your own example, you are entitled to receive 2x what you put into the system. Why would you receive 1 penny more than you put into the system?  It was not an investment, it was paying off current retirees… aka ponzi.[/quote]Those digital entries that make up the SS trust funds earn interest.  They are, in fact, gov't securities.  True, 5 years of zirp and larger than expected outlays have hastened the day when the trust funds become insolvent, but they are, nonetheless, trust funds, not a ponzi scheme any more than any other bond or insurance fund.
If you pay into a commercial bond fund for 30 years or so I assume you expect to have more in it when you retire than you paid in.  Why should the same not be true of a gov't trust fund that you pay into?  Any retirement fund works the same.  Otherwise you wouldn't buy into it.  You would stuff your money in a mattress and hope for the best.
Do you think the money you pay into a private retirement plan or insurance policy is just sitting there in a pile of cash somewhere?  Of course not.  It is being invested elsewhere in some fractional reserve system.  If you're lucky there won't be a run on the system before you retire and want to collect on your investment.  However, if a whole lot of people do the same thing at the same time, or if economic times turn bad and people stop paying into the fund, you will be SOL.  That's why this site has been advising for some time that people consider getting out of IRAs and 401Ks.  The high risk behavior of our financial institutions will come back to bite us at some point, whether our money is in a gov't trust fund or a private fund of some kind.
Doug

108

…just take stock my man, look at those that matter to you most and build your world, the one you want to live in and live it. Do not let this stuff take your life from you.
SS was never suppose to pay off as it does.

The future has yet to be written so lets not give in.

treebeard, I need you solid and writing in your style as I like it very much. Peace

109

I do spend a lot of time (to say the least) thinking about the transition that we are heading through and taking concrete steps to prepare for what has and is continuing come.  In a way I have been living this transition for the past 30 years and in many ways I am prepared as is rationally possible.  Big garden, out of debt, house that can function 100% off the grid if necessary with some loss of convenience, etc., etc.
So why so down? 

I think some of it is just pure fatigue, thinking about the "survival" side of things is very draining.  Reminds me of the scene form the LOTR…

Pippin Took: It's so quiet.
Gandalf the White: It's the deep breath before the plunge.
Pippin Took: I don't want to be in a battle, but waiting on the edge of one I can't escape is even worse. Is there any hope, Gandalf... for Frodo and Sam?
Gandalf the White: There never was much hope. Just a fool's hope.
 
Some of it is the isolation of living in a culture that is sleep walking. The amount of time and energy wasted on the petty, insignificant and meaningless side of life.  I get the feeling that most people are not really alive, sort of the walking dead. The feeling evokes a lot of compassion, but a sense of isolation as well.
 
Then the mind turns to the thoughts of the what if's. What if things get very ugly and we don't make it through, was all the prep time worth it, perhaps instead of spending the money on solar panels we should have been having a good time (mantra of our culture, no?)
 
I think part of it is the frustration with the endless intelectual analysis of the conditions at hand.  Emotions are typically rejected as a source of humanities problems.  Emotions are unfortunately typically associated with our lower centers and not the heart.  To walk a path with heart, who could ask for more......
 
 
 
 
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Some of it is the isolation of living in a culture that is sleep walking. The amount of time and energy wasted on the petty, insignificant and meaningless side of life.  I get the feeling that most people are not really alive, sort of the walking dead. The feeling evokes a lot of compassion, but a sense of isolation as well. Then the mind turns to the thoughts of the what if's. What if things get very ugly and we don't make it through, was all the prep time worth it, perhaps instead of spending the money on solar panels we should have been having a good time (mantra of our culture, no?)
Regarding people being like the walking dead, I have always been amused by the rise of this zombie thing that I see reported here and there in the media. I don't pretend to know much about it, other than it it seems to be another form of entertainment escapsim. But I think it rather funny that people need to pretend to be zombies when we all ready have so many of the populace walking dead anyway... how ironic. I recently went on a family vacation and as much as I love them all, there was ample evidence of the disconnect between me and the others due to where our heads are at in this game called life. There was plenty of evidence of the petty, insignificant and meaningful things that you allude to. This is the hard part for me, and where the emotional resilience comes in. It seems one has to work even harder at relationships when personal values have taken different roads. It requires a healthy dose of patience, something which I think was doled out when I must have been hiding somewhere... Your second thought regarding placing emphasis on having a good time "just in case" is also a valid one that we should be adhering to as much as is possible. We never know if we are even going to get to the future, and I received yet another reminder this past Monday when a good friend passed away suddenly. Sadly, her wonderfully planned future will never happen. And so I say to myself once again to not be all serious and get all wrapped up in this preparation thing, and to remember to enjoy life and live in the moment as much as possible. It is cliche, but we should all be living each day as if it were our last. Sometimes I think we must try to set a level of contentment in our lives, one that is a plateau reached where were are happy with our level of preparations, happy with the ability to enjoy life (with less worry because we have made these preparations), and happy that we were born where we were, in spite of all the bad things going on around us. I have a cute little sign in my home that says "If you are lucky enough to be at the beach, you are lucky enough". I don't always "see" it. But these days I am trying that much harder to embrace it as a life philosophy, and be more content with what I have. Jan  
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Treebeard -I can relate to a lot of what you say.  A sleeping culture, prep fatigue, feeling out of step, the almost overwhelming sense of corruption at so many levels, and the nagging fear that the cat 5 hurricane will sweep all away before it no matter how much we prepare.
The thing that helps me is my belief system; I'm not here to survive.  I mean, my biology is, and thats an important part of who I am here, but I feel that I'm here to learn and understand and master the human experience, especially the bits that make me feel angry, worried or scared.  Master in this sense means having a sense of relative internal peace about, rather than imposing external control over.  So in a sense my life's purpose is my own journey rather than successfully surviving, etc.
Emotions for me are a more personal thing; I see them as a critical tool for understanding myself.  Perhaps not always successfully in real time.  Yet online, I can't really suggest to someone on a web post how to handle their emotions in a productive way, so how can I go there?   People in our society have no training in this at all.  Mainstream society usually views emotions as the undesirable waste product of unpleasant situations, almost always with an external cause.  If pop culture is a guide, all you need to do is use a firearm, spend money, take a drink or some drugs, or blow it up in an explosion, and the problem causing that emotion goes away.  That programming is strong.
For my posts, I confess I find puzzles about human nature, the markets, politics and history and how they interact fascinating.  And I apply my intellectual techniques to describe them.  That can be boring for people who don't have the same interest.   I also really enjoy hearing about pretty much any conspiracy story.  At the same time, following stories alone will end up losing the game, so I have to temper my love of stories with a look at what's happening today.  Taken all together, I can hopefully walk an informed middle road.  And maybe even find the Truth that is Out There!
Well that's me anyway.
 

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Again and again I am left wondering what has the illness of our society come to reveal to us? I think that is a lesson to be learned as a community, which I think hints at the answer.
In a very real sense, we do not cure diseases, they cure us, by restoring our spiritual participation in life.
Critical thinking and communicating skills are our most potent medicines. Thanks for this thread, it is important work we all need to “attend” to.
Rose

113

…take thoughtful reflection and Brother that is a service to mankind, certainly for the responders here in our community. We all see the strains, we don't have to feel them though as we have done what we can in our preparations.
I am a homebody, I stay put and because of this every square inch of my/our home is to capture the absolute beauty this world possesses. I absolutely love my situation, my family and those I call friends and loved ones. Outside of this world is nothing but chance and I prepare for this very cautiously. If we go down we go down and nothing I can do to stop that so I listen and learn, offer my opinions, share, and apply what I can and are as prepared as I can possibly be. So I have inner peace.

OK, gonna hit the links and walk what I hope is an 82 so that I can REALLY enjoy the visuals we have created here at home. Be good Brother, all of you.

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I often feel as if I'm waiting for something to happen.
I'm still not where I want to be with my preps, but sometimes I wonder if it's even possible to be truly prepared when I don't know exactly what it is I'm preparing for. Collapse yes, but to what degree? What will the reality be versus what I imagine it to be? There are so many unknowns. It's unsettling to see the obvious disintegration in the news stories - and there are many of them now (quite a list, Dave!). But as soon as I move away from the computer, they are in contrast to the normality of my daily life. So there is a sense of unreality about it all. Until, that is, the time comes when I will plunge into the battle. But for now the waiting . . . is hard. It's a kind of emotional "teetering", on tiptoes wavering back and forth between collapse awareness and mopping the kitchen floor. And, I look around me at those who may have an idea of the instability in the economy, but who don't yet realize the extent of our predicament (Jan's zombies). That just adds to my discomfort and sense of isolation. Like feeling alone in a crowd.

So, like you Dave, I try to find an inner peace. Often elusive but I know I need to focus on this more and more. I also try to focus more on appreciating the gift that is Life. The hummingbirds, the flowers, the butterfly bushes are here NOW. I  try to find meaning by examining human nature and what we can learn from our possible demise. How do I apply it to my own life?

And finally, to feel my grief. Grief isn't talked about much in our society. We're encouraged to get over it as quickly as possible so as to not discomfort those around us. But what do you do when your grief is so global, so all encompassing? I've gotten inured to the news of dead Iraqies or Syrians or the latest victims of natural disasters. I've had to develop a tougher emotional shield or be swept away by the daily horror in the news. Still, I can't deny the grief I feel entirely. So, Treebeard, I say go ahead and mourn. Feel bad for awhile. It's OK. In fact, it's a normal, healthy response to what we are living through and will live through. I'm with you. Thanks for your honesty and authenticity.

Joyce

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Speak for yourslf.
I met an ex-farmer on the bus into Perth. We got to talking about land farming, climate etc. and he said (Unprompted) that some American, ie citizen of the USA, had bought up a big spread around Salmon Gums, installed an underground bunker and an airfield.

Now that sort of project takes money. It looks as though the Big End of town is also preparing.

I think he is silly, what will be needed if flexibity. Making like a Hedghog is not going to be good enough.

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Thanks for your thoughtful comments.  All that you wrote resonated with me, it's nice that we share so much more than we all know. Joyce, thanks for the point about allowing ourselves to feel bad, sometimes to feel at all.  Especially when you are in your "public persona", there is almost an unspoken taboo about it.
These things usually come in waves, it has happened so many times now that I am starting to think more and more of our experience as birth pangs.  The intensity ramps up, then a period of calm and reflection. When things ramp up, there usually some event that triggers an emotional comming to terms with what is actually happening to us all.

We talk about GDP, interest rates, unemployment, government policy in an academic and abstract way.  But its really about real people and real lives. When things turn down, it means some mother some where is looking into her childs eyes and trying to answer the question, "I'm hungry, why can't I have something to eat?".  Real people loose their homes, livelyhood, hope for the future.

In the Dan Ariely piece about being predictable irrational he talks about our response to the drowning girl.  Most of us he says will jump.  I get the feeling that it is all about being in full contact with reality, unfortunately it takes an extraordinary event like that in most cases to get us there.  There is so much pain in the world now that it is hard to stay in contact.  Mostly it is too much for us to take, so we take it in waves.

These periods make me think of the saying, 'to know and not to do, is not to know".  Can I truely internalize what I intellectually know.  Do I have the strength to act on what is right. Can I get out of my comfort zone and take advantage of these periods and use them constructively? 

 

 

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but what was never discussed about SSI was the income cap on the tax itself. Those above $113K only have to pay the 6% tax on their income that falls below that amount. What if the tax had been applied to their entire income for their lifetime? It is called "social" security, implying all, not individual security. The "pot o money" would be much larger in the case I describe.
The way I see it is that the problems that exist with SS are not mathematical, they are political. Those that make the argument that it should only be looked upon at the individual level (i.e. a person's payin in relation to the payout) seem to be ignoring many unquantifiable or hidden benefits our society receives from this insurance. Again, the benefits are social benefits, not individual. There is no perfect solution, or even fair solution, but to cut SS would force my parents and a lot of other elderly who have worked hard but haven't made a lot of money into poverty and hardship, therefore, punishing those that don't deserve it and rewarding those who are mostly responsible for and benefitted from this corrupted system.

Do I want a "reset?"  Look at Greece… they are having one now. It will punish those who don't deserve it, and not those that do. Be careful what you wish for.

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Another aspect that hasn't been discussed about the SS retirement and disability trust funds is employer matching.  Employees pay in 7% that is matched by employers.  If you're self-employed, you pay the whole nut.  Therefore, to use an example cited somewhere in the thread, you pay in $250K, your employer matches it and you get $575K out (if you live long enough).  So that's a 15% return total on your and your employer's contributions.  Would you invest in any IRA for 30 years that paid that little?Bottom line, the gov't gets a great deal from the trust funds that buy the gov't securities, employers pay into their employees' retirement and retirees have a measure of security they may not otherwise have.  It's not a perfect system, but it is a social contract that has helped minimize poverty for a lot of people over the years.
Doug

119

Only?  So 6% theft is okay? Why should I or anyone be forced to pay for your parents retirement?  What gives you the right to take someone elses labor?  How is that any different than the Fed or the banks stealing from others?  Is the only difference who is benefiting from the theft?

I look at much of the discussions and the angst seems to be over who should be forced to pay, behave in a certain way, etc.  Social Security and all the other programs are just theft cloaked in veil of benevolence.   They are done for political gain to buy votes.

Why if these programs are so good are you forced to pay into them?   What we have is money that has been stolen in exchange for a promise that is now going to be broken?  Why do people defend this action?  We would certainly be a lot better off if individuals had been given the choice as to what to do with their money.  Yes, some would have party hard, but many would have saved it and been much more careful stewards of the money than the government?  After all, who has a larger vested interest?

Want to build a better world, quit forcing people to bend to your will. Quit stealing from them via proxy.  Talk to them, convince them, encourage them, but forcing always ultimately fails since it breeds resentment, and eventually leads to conflict.  If you choose the other path you are no different than those that seek to enslave you.

Another way to look at it.  If the government said we are going to take 6% from you so that we can bailout the banks, wage a few wars, give favors to large corporations like GM, GE, etc.  Would you support it?  What exactly do you think that 6% is being spent on?  It's has not been saved or invested for the future.  So if you don't like the war, bailout of the banks, the crony capitalism - then stop supporting and defending the machinery that makes it all possible . 

 

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How do you know that?  How do you know that money wouldn't have had more benefit had it been spent by the individuals?  After all you pointed out the really crappy return.   Also, that theft is from everyone, including those that make the least who would have benefitted the most from reduced taxes.  Then we have the whole problem  that we aren't going to even get that 15% return, because it wasn't invested, it's just been spent like all ponzi schemes and we are now at the point where it can't continue.  Now we get to see the destruction and the poverty you think has been minimized.