As Chris says in the below video, this is an alert we’d hoped not to have to deliver.
A new study coming out of China reports that the Wuhan coronavirus has an Ro of 4.1. That means it's much more contagious than previously feared:
If indeed the case, an Ro of 4.1 means there is NO way of stopping this virus from becoming a full-blown global pandemic.
This study has not yet had time to be peer-reviewed, so the data may change. But going with the data we have *right now* in this fast-developing situation, it is time to start preparing yourself and your loved ones.
Not time to panic, mind you. But start taking steps to prepare should you need to shelter in place for a period of days/weeks if the virus hits your community.
N95 masks, sanitizers, household cleaners, etc, body protection, food stores, etc.
Hopefully you won’t have to self-isolate. But if you do, be sure you’ve prepared in advance.
Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.
And if those figures are even close to true, this thing is a nightmare. High infection rate and SARS-like fatality rate? Ugghh.
But the one thing I keep coming back to is that this study uses the OFFICIAL Chinese stats. And I believe they may be underestimating the actual number of infected by a factor of ten or more. If so, the fatality rate is actually much lower. But I can quite believe that the infectiousness (r0) is high.
Let us hope these guys are overestimating the fatality rate. If not - this thing is a horror.
I loved the way you spoke in such a balanced way. I think many more people will listen because of it. Keep up the great work, my friend.
-Andy
I don’t want to make light of this subject. But “2019-nCoV” is a lousy name. This virus doesn’t care who you are if your important if your rich or a nice person. So how about the Thanos virus just a thought. Thanos was the bad guy in the Avengers movie who made 50% of the people cease to be thank God this is not that bad. Thank you all. As for what to get Long term meat I know people have a low opinon of but SPAM will last a long time and its easy to find. Peanut butter, rice and dry beans. I grow dry beans always save a few 5gal. pails gust in case.
Newbie here. Thanks for the great info from PP and the commenters as well. So grateful I found this community. I could use a reality check. I’m a 53 year old male, mildly overweight, with a taxed immune system who lives alone in a suburb of Chicago and works in a casino with a large clientele of Chinese & Asian players. A casino is nearly as bad as a daycare for infections, my clientele are expats who travel back and forth to Asia, and I can’t just walk away from my job. So I realize that I’d be likely to be right on the early firing line if and when this pandemic hits the US. I think I’m relatively intelligent, but I admit that pandemic wasn’t high on my list of worries for 2020, and my week to week bankroll isn’t such that I can get 6 months of food or water supply. I’ve got that much of a reality check so far (which is miles ahead of my friends, but thankfully my kids & ex-wife have listened), but I’m asking this community what else I can do this late in the game? I ordered dried elderberries and will be cooking up the syrup tomorrow. I’ll be shopping for groceries on Monday (payday) and will be getting 2 extra weeks of meat & dry goods (most I can afford). I’m thinking of ordering the electrolyte mix so I can combat dehydration. What else would be a MUST HAVE this coming week say on a budget of $100? Also, and this is looking into the future, if I would need to go to a hospital, I’m thinking it would be wise to go away from the city towards the best smaller community hospital I could find. My logic is that the Chicago hospitals would get flooded, but is that trade off of some of the best care in the states for less crowded, but probably less qualified care worth it? I hope this doesn’t sound panicky, because I’m not panicked. I’m just looking to get informed even if I’ve been asleep at the wheel too long. Thanks in advance for any and all comments.
Chris and co,
No matter where this thing ends up going long term, I want to thank you for your reporting. It’s not only the best calm, sensible reporting out there… it’s kind of the only reporting going on from some perspective.
I’ve kept quiet about ncov online so far, knowing full well that I’ll be accused of being a panic merchant if I say much. Today, I sent a few PMs to family members with link to today’s video from Chris. People have to know.
I want to add another acronym to the PTB, MSM etc. Mine is TWP, or Television Watching People… I stopped watching commercial TV some 25 years ago. I run on a different narrative than most of my country/community. Sadly, much of the internet is now tuned to TWP psyche.
Social media is next to useless at a time like this, with a blizzard of opinions blowing stuff up.
Please keep it up Chris and company. None of us want other life forms, especially humans, to suffer. We need to use our brains to minimise suffering. Let’s see how we can help each other.
Chris,
I’m a computer guy for nearly 40 years, infrastructure and software development. I’ve noticed your site grinding a bit, no surprise given what’s happening. Get in touch if can help in some way, I’m at your disposal.
I really would like to know what members here feel a mask per person count in a household should be. I want to be prepared, while also not being a hoarder.
U.S. mandates quarantine for 195 Wuhan evacuees who passed through Anchorage
Well duh! The passengers went to our International terminal and were allowed to de-plan on their way to California. But hey no one had a temperature so all is well and we can whistle a happy tune! Not really worried it is just sad that those in charge are slow and seem to be so uninformed. No doubt they are doing the best they can under the circumstances and everyone is on edge. Hope they sanitize our International Terminal!
AKGrannyWGrit
With a mortality rate of 2% this puts the Upper Limit for fatalities at 154 million people worldwide. The world population is currently growing by 82 million per year. Hence it is just minor setback in Homo Sapians quest to conquer our universe and beyond.
How do surface contact/droplet (typical for corona viruses) versus airborne (aerosol) transmission R values typically compare?
Just curious given the high estimates of R_0 coming out of China.
The other paper is here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/01/24/2020.01.23.20018549.full.pdf
This one is NOT straight out of the China CDC and thus is not beholden to their numbers, estimates that only 5% of cases have been “ascertained,” meaning that available testing procedures are missing 95% of cases.
The consequence would be that the CFR drops precipitously by 95%, because presumably the other people who were not diagnosed as having this virus didn’t get as sick and die (but then again if they died, they did not get counted as coronavirus deaths).
Glimmer of hope.
Thanks, Ben.
Yes, with the substantially higher traffic due to our 24/7 coronavirus coverage, the site is struggling at bit to keep up.
But we’ve got 2 tech teams working on it now.
Thanks so much for the offer of help. If we need to, we’ll reach out!
cheers,
A
If there’s one thing that I’ve learned through this site over the years, it’s to question when things don’t quite make sense. For me, it’s the issuance of the federal quarantine order this morning… why was that necessary?
If the plane was essentially carrying diplomats (and other people who had to pay $1,110 a pop and battle the near impossibility of making their way to the airport in Wuhan), you’d think they would very willingly self-isolate for 14 days once on US soil. They could grant all sorts of interviews and talk about how patriotic they were and were only looking out for health of the public, etc. etc. At the very least, I don’t think you could find a group of people who would be more willing to self-isolate than these 200.
On the one hand, I’m sure part of it was for PR to correct the optics that US folks were isolating for 3 days, while folks in other countries are being isolated for 14. However, wouldn’t voluntary isolation work as well. Was this just to “remind” the population that the federal goverment does, indeed, have statutory authority to restrict people’s movements? As for effects: how many people will be relieved to see the CDC use this power compared to how many just had an “oh sh!^” moment?
“Sandpuppy” has many postings on this topic and is the best source of such information in my opinion. Look for his postings along with Chris M videos.
Because so much is known about this virus, I expect to see some serious medicine emerge fairly soon, so the longer we wait the more opportunities for chemical interventions.
Personally, I would look into buying an oxygen tank and mask, to administer oxygen and stay out of the hospital (but you need to learn how to handle gaseous oxygen: tuberculosis survivors and other lung challenged long term survivors use these). it seems clear that presently the only cure is our immune system and time. Hospital ICUs seem to merely provide ways to get oxygen into weaked lungs while waiting for the body to do its thing. I wonder what the excellent ICU experts on this site have to say.
best regards from the Japan islands
Mots
Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar declared the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency in the U.S. on Friday. The declaration comes after U.S. health officials issued a federal quarantine order for the 195 Americans evacuated from the epicenter of the outbreak in China.
The group of U.S. government workers and private Americans will remain at a military base in Southern California until mid-February, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters Friday.
The government hasn't issued such a quarantine order in over 50 years, Messonnier said. She said the order was issued because of the "unprecedented public health threat" of the outbreak; none of the quarantined Americans have tested positive for the virus.
Chris and Adam, and everyone at Peak Prosperity.
Thanks SO much for everything that you are and have been doing for this community over the past decade. I am a long time lurker, but posting for the 1st time. I have come to depend on PP as my first “go to” website when I want an in depth discussion on so many different topics. You guys are great!
If you are just starting to prepare for emergency preps the basics are where to start. Start with what you might need for the next week or two. Toilet paper, disinfectants, coffee, food, bread, a few gallons of water, etc., is a great place to start. Batteries, Pedialite, Ibuprofen, food for your pets…whatever you can think of. You don’t need to hoard stuff or buy things you don’t need. Just stick to the basics.
I’d like to see opinions on numbers of masks from others, too.
We live on a homestead and have food stores of 2000 cal/day for three months for twelve family members, as well as a hand pump on our well for water and a year’s worth of firewood for heating and cooking. So hopefully we won’t need to interact with outsiders frequently.
I’m assuming that we won’t want to reuse N-95 masks, and so will need the number of masks equal to the number times ONE of us will need to interact with outsiders – for one wave of pandemic? For three waves?
I have 30 N-95 masks. Doesn’t feel like too many, but I don’t know.
I thought that if it did seem like an overabundance, I’d give them to neighbors later on.
I am not sure about the actual R0 number, but I see that they are talking about a delay time.
Logically, if there is an average delay time between being infected and showing symptoms of 4 to 5 days. Than on average everyone showing symptoms on Jan 29 was infected on Jan 25. So if the percentage of people going to the hospital with symptoms remains the same, you get an R0 of 7678/2000 based on the reported number of cases in China.
So in my opinion, an analysis like this depends in a large extent on the accuracy of this timing.
