In 2018 - 800,000 Americans were hospitalized with a virus that has symptoms similar to that of the coronavirus (fever, cough, difficulty breathing) and 61,000 Americans died from this disease.
From the Bloomberg article, many hospitals were overwhelmed with cases of the virus and were treating sufferers 'in their parking lots'
The CDC indicates that 'the key difference between the coronavirus and the flu that struck the US in 2018 is that people most at risk 'will have either travelled to China or been in close contact with an infected individual'
America has less than 1/4 the population of China - so for the current virus to rival the impact of the 2018 Flu in America, we'd need to see nearly 200,000 DEATHS and close to 3.5 MILLION infections.
Forgive my ignorance, but the coronavirus simply sounds like just another version of 'the flu'
Even the CDC says the only real difference is that you catch one in China. Otherwise it's a flu virus.
So why are we locking down an entire country and creating a global PANIC?
I don't even recall reading anything about the massive flu pandemic in the States in 2018.
“average infectious period” - For an effective ‘lock down’ baits the question are the transmission mechanisms very similar to other flu viruses? Is the virus survivability profile similar?
Also what’s been the experience with SARS from an ongoing recurrence standpoint?
Hello from the San Francisco Bay Area and Silicon Valley. We heard earlier today that in our county, we have our first case…
Here’s the article: https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/coronavirus-Santa-Clara-Bay-Area-San-Francisco-15021074.php
The person is “self-isolating” and not in the hospital…
Chris; you’ll love the advice in the article, pretty divergent from all that you’ve been saying, such as:
no reason to wear a mask, unless you're sick and the chance you'll get otherssick
no reason to stock up on food
just check out the CDC website for what you need to do and know
That's it, no worries, really. Right?
Oh, also, the paragraph about the fatality rate. Am I the only person that has trouble reading the part about whether the fatality rate is "2 to 3 percent" and then late "0.1 percent"? That confused me. Are they trying to minimize by obfuscation or is there some nuance there in what they're trying to say that I missed?
Eat well (lots of veggies), sleep well, try to take very good care of yourself during this time. If possible, wear gloves to work. If you can’t, wash your hands with soap and water as frequently as possible. Make sure not to ever touch your eyes/nose/mouth. Also, perhaps you could arrange to work during the least busy times, rather than the most busy.
Hi Chris,
Have you seen this man’s video? It was recorded on Jan. 30. 11am, Beijng Time. And it revealed what’s happening within Wuhan. I think it confirmed a lot of our worst fears of test kits running woefully short, confirmed cases vastly under reported, terrifying conditions in hospitals, and extreme censorship enforced by the communist government.
I just registered this account to let you know about this, in case you didn’t. Please watch and share with us your take on it. And thank you for all the work you’ve done! I have sprung into action to prepare for this pandemic which would’ve never happened had it not been for your data driven, incredibly informative videos!!
Oh, also, the paragraph about the fatality rate. Am I the only person that has trouble reading the part about whether the fatality rate is “2 to 3 percent” and then late “0.1 percent”? That confused me. Are they trying to minimize by obfuscation or is there some nuance there in what they’re trying to say that I missed?
"
The last sentance saying "it" has a fatality rate of .o1% is refering to the subject of the previous sentence, the common flu. So, whomever transcribed this from the person speaking started a new sentence, used a period where there should have been a comma is all
"There’s a lot we don’t know about coronavirus, and one is the case fatality rate -- what percentage of patients will die of the illness," said Dr. Chiu of UCSF. "It does appear based on the data available so far that this appears to be less deadly than SARS at 2 to 3 percent, and for SARS, it was about 10 percent. This is still a more severe disease than the flu. It has a mortality rate of .o1 percent."
For a local paper here in the bay area, I thought they did a decent job. All the papers fired their editing departments a few years ago.
Saying that there is currently no need to wear a mask when leaving ones home seems the correct thing to say ! That doesnt mean to not own masks, or to not use them if a need arises, but this is true, we do not need to wear a mask right now when we leave the house !
I think the main difference in tone between here and that article is that here we have been discussing what to be prepared to do IF this escalates. The newspaper article was addressing what was needed now. It did not address a potential higher risk future in the disease cycle.
I am referring to the article linked by Dave T., the case of the one USA patient in Washington State. HE did the right thing in that he was in Wuhan, and went and got it diagnosed. Ok. And we see the list of symptoms on the timeline, none of which would otherwise send me to the hospital or doctor in and of themselves. So, he of course needed to be in isolation since we are learning about and worried about this disease.
But, other than that, did he need that kind of care ? Nowhere was this addressed ! SO, it told me nothing about his severity. Did he have trouble breathing ? Did he need intubation ? Or an oxegen mask ? Was he so sick that he couldnt drink and needed an IV ?
So, I am left not knowing where he was on the sickness spectrum
R0 values are not very reliable in the heat of an outbreak, except as a way to measure momentum. The numbers of infected:deaths are too fluid and too dependent on a number of human and political factors prone to error to be meaningful indicators of virulence.
Initial trajectories, such as the greater susceptibility of elderly and chronically ill, is really self-evident and doesn’t say much about overall trajectory. Similarly, the greater penchant for attacking males may be due as much to the reported greater proportion of men at the Wuhan market. More important is the longer term trajectory as 2nd and 3rd generation transfers of the virus are tracked. If they still show a prediliction for males, it’s time to sit up and take notice. Similarly, if the virus continues to attack the elderly and chronically infirm in numbers exceeding their percent of a local population, then it’s a vector for specialized attention.
Conspiracy theories about the elites looking to cull populations are simply not helpful. Such “answers” ought be the last entertained, only after every other explanation has been exhausted. “They” just don’t show signs of being that monolithic - unless viewed from an already jaundiced perspective looking for proofs. But that’s just proof-texting.
It is likely still true that in the modern era 1st world countries weather disease outbreaks much better than 3rd world, and the northern hemisphere better than the southern. It’s a matter of ambient environment and available medical care.
Watchfulness is appropriate. Fear and panic are not.
If this event serves to move many from an interest in acting on resilience to taking steps - enacting a series of action steps to enhance personal and local community robustness - that would be a good thing.
Life is going to get rough going forward for all the reasons encapsulated in the concept of “peak prosperity.” Too few are prepared infact for the coming times. I expect most will fail to learn from this episode and will go back to sleep when this crisis has run its course.
In the end, if your own troubled dreams don’t wake you up and get you moving, such transient events as this virus won’t either.
In response to thc0655, i propose we call it 2019-nCOVfefe, due to the mysterious nature and lack of good data common to both this virus and certain executive tweets.
Doing the math based on CDC/media reports, there seems to be 15 Americans that are unaccounted for from when their chartered flight left Wuhan (with 210 passengers) to quarantine (195 passengers) at March AFB in California.
A recap: 210 passengers reportedly left Wuhan on a chartered plane that could carry 240 people (including crew, actual number unknown). They had a stopover in Anchorage, Alaska and media reported only 201 boarded the plane there and arrived in California. Most recent reports give a new figure of 195 passengers under the 14-day quarantine at March AFB. What happened to those 15 unaccounted for Americans that were on the initial flight from Wuhan?
All media reports give assurances that the passenger counts as given (initially 210; then 201; now 195) passed testing for the virus. But there’s no mention of whether/how many passengers (or crew) may not have passed testing, and no explanation given for the discrepancies in passenger counts.
Tim and all, in addition to what Mots suggested, I’d recommend a disaster preparedness book. Lots of them out there these days, I use the ones written by Arthur T. Bradley. If the internet goes out you’ll be very happy to own one of these books. You can share it with your friends and neighbors too.
Dr Campbell discusses information from New England Journal of Medicine on cluster of cases in Germany. He is old enough to use paper and marker instead of powerpoint and explains things pretty clearly, supporting all of Chris’ points (except he thinks RO is 2.68 which is still serious). https://youtu.be/OQFBUgDgG_k?t=550
His points:
5 cases, 4 proven to be contracted while everyone felt well, at least one still shedding virus after he returned to work well. all cases milder (not requiring hospitalization).
The NEJM article https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468?query=featured_coronavirus
Along with the elderberry syrup; Garlic, fire cider, Manuka honey and any over the counter cold and flu tablets you normally take. Also get a couple jars of vitamins.
To keep things clean: masks, rubbing alcohol, bleach and hand sanitizer.
For food:
This is not a balanced diet, its not enough calories for a healthy adult, it’s just a jumping off point:
100g or about 3 to 4 oz of pasta or rice is one serve. So for 1 person for 3 months you need around 20kgs or 44lb. Then you can supplement that with tinned meat or beans. 30 tins for a one month supply. Buy a couple boxes of oats, nuts and dried fruit to make overnight oats or muesli.
Buy some radish and beets, plant them in a pot and eat the leaves, for fresh greens. Simple dressing for salad is fire cider, garlic and olive oil.
I just got divorced, just moved, I haven’t got much, but I spent about $500 Australian or about $350 us for two people and hopefully it’s enough carbs at least, that I don’t have to go to the shops for a few months.
Forecast spread article from “The Lancet”.
“Given that Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen together accounted for more than 50% of all outbound international air travel in mainland China, other countries would likely be at risk of experiencing 2019-nCoV epidemics during the first half of 2020.” https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext
