New Research Suggests The Coronavirus May Be Far Worse Than We Thought

Chinese officials are now warning that the Wuhan coronavirus may spread by aerosol transmission.

We have known it spreads via fomites contained within mucus-based globules, spread by coughing, sneezing, etc.

But if it also transmits from human to human via aerosol means, it's likely FAR more contagious than previously feared:

Many of the most contagious diseases, like measles, spread as aerosols -- tiny particles that hang in the air for a protracted time.

If confirmed, this makes a very bad situation substantially worse.

And adding to the hit parade of bad news, recent research shows that coronavirus particles can survive on surfaces for up to 5-9 days. At least, the good news is that chlorine-based cleaners (like simple bleach) appear effective at killing the virus within 1 minute.

So, again, good hygiene practices are our best defense here. Avoid exposure. When in public areas, protect your eyes/nose/mouth/skin. And sanitize often.

Meanwhile, the data shows the virus continues to spread around the world. And we continue to see more indirect evidence that the infected and fatality data out of China may be much higher than what’s being officially reported.

Folks, this virus is a beast.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at

It makes one wonder how bad the numbers have to get here in the west before it’s no longer driven mostly by money considerations. At some tipping point, greed turns to fear. Hopefully the numbers will all just kind of just peter out over here. How long will it take to know for sure, another month?

Why has coronavirus been so slow to spread outside China?

Still only two confirmed deaths outside China. If the coronary is as contagious and deadly as advertised, how are there only two deaths so far?

Interesting risk analysis of how travel for Chinese lunar new year may have exacerbated spread of Ncov. Hundreds of millions travel during this time.

James, hopefully we could agree that a low number of deaths in the rest of the world is a good thing, right? I wouldn’t call the rate of transmission and the reports of symptoms advertisements, but rather the best estimates that people can come up with so far from the pool of data available. My personal feeling is that there are likely more cases on the street that have been reported, even here in the US, because the early incubation tends to be mild and a lot of cases are likely just incubating right now. Also, for reasons I don’t understand the testing seems to be excruciatingly slow. I read somewhere today that Africa didn’t even get a test kit until today, so I’m guessing there are cases over there that have not been reported.

“Perhaps the most valuable result of all education is the ability to make yourself to do the thing you have to do when it ought to be done whether you like it or not. It is the first lesson that ought to be learned and however early a person’s training begins, it is probably the last lesson a person learns thoroughly”
Thomas Huxley
British biologist

I don’t think we have all the data to answer these questions effectively now.
Here are some thoughts:
It has been theorized that Wuhan/Hubei province had Ncov Activity as early as December or even November (no one knows exact start date). Therefore this region could have had a 2-3 month head start in terms of transmission cycles. Early Lack of education and awareness coupled with limited prevention measures likely contributed to the fast spread originally. Conversely, later on other regions better awareness, China lockdowns, travel restrictions, etc., may have slowed the spread to other areas and countries
Much fewer cases outside China = much fewer deaths. Could also be related to standard of care differences/Ncov education. The 2 deaths outside of China were Philippines and Hong Kong. The total if combining these areas would be 2 deaths out of 39 cases. This mortality rate over 5% is higher than Chinas reported rate. I think we will need to see more volume of cases outside of China to really understand mortality rate differences.

Why has this kind of news not caused more of a concern in this country? I really think more of us besides Adam should start wearing masks in public. A little shame of the face (which can’t be seen behind a mask anyway) might generate some more cognitive dissonance in each of our communities.
Interestingly in this interview, Dr Gottlieb got cut off when he started to talk about this virus burning through the population without any herd immunity. The interview is bookended with comments on spread through travel. I’m surprised this video hasn’t been taken down yet.

I am very curious. When does incubating period end? The disease started spreading after Dec 8,2019. Millions of Chinese traveled outside china after that. Virus can’t still be incubating if spread to rest of the world.Something doesn’t sound right.

From what I’ve read (sorry no link) here are some possible reasons for the low death rate outside China:

  1. People who suffer from other conditions are less likely to travel. These are the ones who probably will suffer most fatalities.
  2. Hospitals, ERs, etc. in the West have sufficient resources such as respirators, drugs and hospital staff. When western hospitals get overwhelmed by cases, as China is, and can no longer properly care for all patients, the death rate will probably climb.
  3. Its only been a few weeks since data has been kept. It make take longer for patients to die.
  4. Its also possible some countries do not want to alarm their citizens and have suppressed reports of cases and deaths.
    As to why testing is taking so long. I read it takes at least 2 days to grow the culture sufficiently to test.

I am not sure you understand the term and its use. The incubation period of disease is the time between when the “infected individual” acquires the infection and the time they become sick ( develop symptoms ). It is a variable but in this case people are thought to get sick or become symptomatic between 2-14 days after the infection occurs. But more realistic most become ill 4-9 days later with this illness.
I believe your confusion starts when people speak about this illness being infectious during the incubation or asymptomatic period. Yes a disease that spreads during asymptomatic period is somewhat uncommon. Usually viral shedding is thought to occur during most symptoms or right before or after. But in the case of this particular illness it was found that people are shedding when they are not symptomatic… that means people can pass the virus to others when they do not have a fever or cough… that means it can be transmitted unknowingly… that is what makes this disease a major issue in containment and tracking and tracing… which is completely different than ebola - which has a fast incubation period making it easy to see the contacts the infected person has had.

I just wonder if there are only Asians die from Coronavirus !??
Who gave them then that as present ??!!
There are more than 1 hundred laboratories( BSL-4) in France ,Canada , Israel , USA
Can we trust anybody ??!

Infected persons flew from China and sat for many hours next to people, yet there is no reported case of anyone getting infected on a flight. It has been more than two weeks since the flights left China carrying infected persons to the US and Europe, and a few fellow passengers and crew members should have gotten infected. As far as I am aware, no one in the US or Europe claims to have been infected on a flight from China.
Scientists believe that the virus enters through the ace II enzyme, which varies according to country. The website below indicates that Europeans generally have an incidence around 20%, while China and Japan are above 40%. I am trying to learn if persons without the ace II enzyme are immune to the Wuhan virus. If any virologist reads this, please post an answer.
Let’s assume that persons without the enzyme, are immune to the virus, so if a European was sitting next to an infected person, he would have an approximate 80% probability of not getting sick. This may explain why no fellow passengers and crew members were not infected. Europeans would have an RO factor of less than one, which means that it will be highly unlikely for the US and Europe to have an epidemic.
Why is the virus so virulent in China?

  • Population density
  • High percentage of persons with the ace II enzyme.
  • Compared to Europe, the US, and Japan, cleanliness is more difficult. 50 million Chinese have no running water in their homes. Also, the open markets have few faucets and sinks. The best defense against the virus is washing one’s hands often. Except in the cities, it may not be possible in much of China.
Digressing, if the virus takes off in India, the epidemic will be much, much worse and will probably kill tens of millions. Half the population have no toilet, and 160 million have no access to clean water. Basically, most of the Indians will not be able to wash their hands often. Compounding the problem, hundreds of millions cannot isolate themselves from their neighbors. “Our structural analyses confidently predict that the Wuhan coronavirus uses ACE2 as its host receptor,” the investigators wrote. That and several other structural details of the new virus are consistent with the ability of the Wuhan coronavirus to infect humans and with some capability to transmit among humans. "

Any supplements you have decided on should be on going as it takes time for helpful levels to build up in the body. I am not providing medical advice, check with your doc and be sure there is no bad interaction with other meds you take.
Helpful for immune system and build white blood cells:
Vitamin E, Zinc, Selenium, green tea, carotinoids, vitamin C, omega 3 fatty acids, pro biotics, vitamin A, garlic.
Fatty fish, Brazil nuts, carrots, cod liver oil.

There’s a pretty good interview out with a Wuhan doctor on the front lines. It seems like he’s answering questions openly and giving a lot of good information on how long mild symptoms tend to last and how often things get serious (~2 weeks in), regarding the wide diversity of serious complications stemming from declining white blood cell counts and severe inflammation.

First lets make something clear, which the media has misinformed people… China is not an undeveloped country ( we could never build a hospital in a week ) and china roadways rival the US interstate infrastructure as do their airports… with bejing being the busiest airport in the world unseeding atlanta a couple years back. So, this stuff about that china has bad or inadequate medical care - is wrong. in fact our health care is dependent on the products they manufacturer there … and medicines they make their as well, not the other way around.
Some of your observations are somewhat correct. But mostly we are not seeing them because it is well documented the course of disease is about 3-4 weeks to kill. The people dying today were infected about mid Jan really before things got a good head of steam… case in point Dr Li’s infection was on or about Jan 10 as documented. and he died on Feb 6. That should give you better idea when people get infected and when they die.
And to the question to why is it taking so long for testing. Just like our CDC , it takes time to prepare or make the test kit. Not so much time to read, we have a rapid test for this virus - its about 4 hours. The CDC just issued two test kits to each state - each kit contains enough for 7-800 tests. ( with a testing criteria that is very stringent ) So, there are only so many kits available. I am sure more will be made for this, but they have to get some in the hands of medical staff. There was an allocation max of only 2000 kits per day in wuhan - and wonder why the numbers are climbing by no more than this per day… The chinese govt just increased the allocation or the manufacturer and supply to 10,000 per day about 2 days ago.
And finally, You stated something about it takes 2 days to culture. This is not correct, in fact you don’t culture viruses , you do culture bacteria. So, I am a bit confused. There is a viral load sensitivity in the test , so someone with a low viral load may receive a false negative. But I do not know anything about it takes 2 days to culture… even if it took two days to get test results , i do not believe they are growing or multiplying anything for some sort of quantitative result.

Not sure if it fits log growth, but it doesn’t look that reassuring.
graph cases outside China over time
BTW, Singapore is doing the best job describing affected people in detail so we can see the epidemic developing slowly over time.
One more thing I wanted to say is about the contrived numbers in China: every epidemiologist on the planet can see that the ratio of 2.1% can’t be that stable over time, so I’m thinking it’s a way to telegraph to them (without causing us to panic) that things are terrible and they should get their medical systems ready.

Leaving aside the issue of which race has a higher % of ace II receptors, a few questions. 1.) are we sure that is the point of attack for this virus or is that still unsettled? 2.) is there any existing research on ace II. What other function does it play? Can it be inhibited?

I want to preface this comment by saying the following is not my belief, only a thought experiment. Many of us agree that China, like much of the world is an over leveraged mess financially. A dark pond waiting for a Black swan. If you ran the ccp and you knew one was coming either way, wouldn’t you want one you could blame on something else? What if the numbers coming from China are real and deaths/ infections are low compared to the response? What if this was a slight of hand to cover a financial crisis that was coming anyway. Could that explain the low rates in the rest of the world? A little too made for Hollywood for my taste, but it’s a strange world. I try to give even my wildest ideas a minute of airtime before I tuck them away and get back to the facts. I find that by exploring ideas, even those I don’t hold to be true, I expand the map of the territory which sometimes leads to novel solutions to queries I hadn’t considered. I hope everyone can forgive me allowing my mind to wonder.