Check out the body bags in the trash outside the crematoriums at funeral homes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09CmQSbNlrU
I would like to hear your thoughts on this scenario. A virologist from Uppsala University, Sweden, said that he thought that this virus is here to stay and will keep going round the world like the H1N1-flu. As a part of the background disease pressure. That in principle everyone on the planet will get the nCov. Some will die, the rest will recover and have some immunity for when it comes around the next winter season.
If that is true - when in the cycle do you prefer to be sick? Early on, when there are empty beds at the intensive care?
Or late, when there maybe is a vaccine, or more knowledge about which treatment actually works?
In Wuhan, it seems like the health system is over-saturated with sick people, and people are put into “death-or-recovery halls” with minimum care where they at least don’t infect someone else. (I would not like to end up in a hall like that…)
What would you prefer? What do you aim for, you and your family?
The site is probably overloaded. I got through after several tries. Admin should be informed. probably Bandwidth problem. Bandwidth costs money.
I’m no expert, and I’m collating and summarizing what I’ve been reading across a multitude of sources and media types, but as far as I understand it, we won’t even know if this is as virulent outside of China for another few weeks. Why? Well, if this thing kicked off in a person or two in late November/early December, but didn’t really get “traction” in the general population until mid-January, that’s a lag of almost 6 weeks between “a few people” to “HOLY F**KING HELL!”
So, we’re in, what, week 3? Given this thing has an incubation period of 2-21 days (if what I read today is accurate), then we’re nowhere out of the woods yet. It feels like it’s too early to declare victory against the spread of this thing here. Plus, consider that new local clusters are beginning to form in non-Chinese locations, and it may be that we dodge the first bullet, only to get hit by the second.
Too early to know, I think.
Here’s what I do know: If one judges the nastiness of this thing by the official version being handed us, it’s no big deal. If one looks at the actions being taken, on the other hand, prepare now. Don’t panic, just prepare.
We have been looking at the Hopkins map grow every day since it came out. Remember, what was it, 2 weeks ago? when there was a large circle on Wuhan, and then a few little dots around it. That took time, just like the stadium takes to fill (Please read the Crash Course, available on this site, if you haven't), so does an R0 of even 3-4 take to grow.
So, go look at that Hopkins map now, those little dots are becoming large. It takes time, unless we can get the R0 below 1, there are odds i wouldn't take a bet against that we will see similar growth.
Having pulled some purchases forward, just today I went back to order "another bracket" for my solar upgrade i've decided get in NOW. Well, a set of brackets are up 32% in under a week. I know that, because last week i ordered a few sets, and realized i was one short. Instead of $33.64, they were $44.84. I can understand why our N100 full face respirators we ordered on 1/23/20 were up 300% just 3 days later, but we are already seeing it elsewhere.
We all need to be prepared for both those circles on the map to start to grow nearer us, and for prices on nearly EVERYTHING you can still buy to be greatly increased.
Best to all,
Eric & Cindy
Too early to know, I think.
I agree, but, so far so good.
For me it started around 1 december. Around Christmas cases where starting up at the hospitals. Doctors warning, got dismissed because holidays coming. Then in januari the picture became more clear.
That is one month. In early January a relative low number of Chinese went to Europe and US. Maybe not too many but quit a few infected visited.
We have to see now a dramatic uptick of cases or we have to adapt the R0 over here.
I will use all measures to avoid or delay getting sick as long as possible!
treatment advances, effective drugs, more knowledge, etc…all become greater the longer time goes by and should be much more advantageous than the idea of an early case to avoid overwhelmed healthcare system.
Thank you greendoc for re-posting my linking to the paper that has much larger sample size and concludes Tabacco use is the correlation to greater ACE-2 and, thus, susceptiblity to 2019-nCoV.
I posted that link on Friday, so why is the meme that Chinese race (or Chinese men specifically) are more susceptible to 2019-nCoV still running around this site? Someone have a better report/research that they can point to? Just wishful thinking, or?
" Thank you David (post #63) for posting the link to this paper
https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0051/v1 "
David
In your podcast (youtube) this morning you mentioned that 1% bleach will take care of the surface. It may have been .5% I can’t remember and that is not the point of this entry. The one thing that is never mentioned is that when they test that to come up with a percentage they test it on a clean non-porous surface (think stainless steel). Most surfaces including stone counter tops are porous. The other is that dwell or contact time is critical in any disinfection. One of the reasons there is a problem with disinfection on surfaces, including in hospitals, is that dwell times or contact time (wet) is ignored. Wiping on and wiping off is insufficient and likely to create resistance to the anti-microbial. Bleach is really only a disinfectant when the hypochlorite level is above 6% and has a contact time of 10 minutes. The virus is fragile and probably does not need that time however we all too often sacrifice efficacy on the alter of efficiency.
Andy perhaps you and David can take this off line and do PM?
Is this site undergoing denial of service attacks?
It takes forever to load and sometimes, I get a page saying, “the server timed out.”
Not again… Leave us kids alone…
Anyone use SmartClean? https://www.amazon.com/CleanSmart-Surface-Bacteria-Chemical-sanitizer/dp/B011AJRJZI/
Everyone have been quarantine in the area for almost a month. No one is working in the factories.
I had to laugh so hard it brought tears to my eyes. So, I guess we to entertain alternative strategies of how to become ill. I have heard of the strategy to get sick first to make sure you get a bed in ICU, but to compare it to delay hoping for some sort of treatment later on ( an unknown ) is quite risky strategy. I would think if you can manage to delay getting sick until that time - wouldnt you just delay it indefinitely.
I get it !!!
Pretending won’t help you for sure , we are the target too !!!
I know I mentioned on the board elsewhere, about they are clearly missing cases by the current testing criteria of the CDC. Well, my brother, has been sick for about 2 weeks or so. he has some sort of infection, that cannot be classified as a cold ( no sinusitis ) he did have a or may still have fever, but mostly what he has is a dry cough and hoarse voice which has persisted 10-14 days now. and it did seem to improve about a week ago, but has now gotten worse. His history is recent socialization with asian wife of brother-law,( dog-sitting ) who flew a connecting flight through china on jan 15. He also has had a history of travel to tahoe ( via san francisco ) about 5 days earlier. We both noted that there is a high population of chinese in san fran. So I just double checked the demographics - its 35.8% chinese… I was shocked it was this high. So, based on his presentation and his history would you be concerned?
I’ve actually thought about this myself, and the definitive answer is LATER. Why?
- I expect there to be more evidence-based treatments down the track. For now it is all guesstimation, experimentation and compassionate prescribing;
- I’d like to know what will happen to those that are confirmed. We’ve seen the heartbreaking footage of military containment in China, and easily put it down to the CCP, however I’m starting to read some alarming articles about rushed laws in the West. Qld Australia rushed an extension to their emergency health regulations last week, extending their powers from a temporary 1 week coverage to a 3 month blanket coverage allowing police and other agencies “…various other powers to enforce and manage public health risks.” https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/state-government-to-push-through-new-coronavirus-emergency-laws-20200203-p53xf1.html
The UK has just rushed through laws allowing them to “…hunt down and capture people if they may be infected or contaminated and could present a risk to public health”. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7986189/Health-Secretary-Matt-Hancock-warns-coronavirus-imminent-threat-British-public.html - There is little known about the long term effects of having had a case of nCov and having recovered. I have seen various records around lung tissue scarring from pneumonia, but otherwise, we know very little about the broader impact on the body and longer term effects. The fact that the bodies of the deceased are being burned so quickly, is also preventing a further, in-depth investigation into this disease through autopsy. So our knowledge of this virus is really only being gained in a reactive, superficial state, which means there is likely to be plenty about this that we are missing.
I understand that second waves are sometimes worse than the first, however, I’ve seen early reports that suggest you may be able to get it again, having only weak immunity from the first exposure, so at this stage there doesn’t seem to be any benefit in contracting it early. Therefore I’ll duck and weave as long as possible.
Ahhhh…another well-timed Tweet to quell public concerns and pump the markets! 'Must be true 'cuz President Xi told him so. After all, China is now “open for business” so things are definitely improving–just look at the (cooked and under reported) data! Nothing to worry about, “…as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone.” Poof, gone!
Maybe we won’t need that nCoV vaccine that’s sure to be ready “soon” after all. Or all those repurposed military bases and pop-up “hospitals” for quarantine. Maybe the crematoriums can stop running 24/7. Maybe the Wuhan BSL-4 lab can be used as a best-practice pandemic training facility, kinda like Tepco’s repurposing of the Fukashima Dai’ichi nuclear power plant and disaster. One can hope, right?
Initially, the official narrative was that the coronavirus was “over there” and could be contained. That obviously wasn’t true. Now people are getting wise to the “nCoV isn’t as bad as the flu” narrative. And the “don’t listen to the profiteering trolls and conspiracy theorists” narrative is not quite working either. Hence, the shift to the “we’ve got it under control, the worst is behind us narrative”. Whew–I feel better already!
Still, I’m more inclined watch what our “trusted” leaders and their minions do, rather than what they say.
Coronavirus Spread Self-Sustaining, Won’t Stop With Warmer Weather
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-01-27/coronavirus-spread-won-t-stop-with-warmer-weather-cfr-video
I’m not a clinician so this is not medical advice. But personally, Yes, if it were my brother given the symptoms you’ve described I would advocate and assist in getting him tested asap. Be persistent, and take all necessary precautions to keep you and others from getting infected. Take care and I hope all goes well with your brother and loved ones. Please keep us posted to the extent you feel comfortable.