I’ve seen variations like that in the data. Thanks for the info. It helps.
Ernst - thank you. I’m reviewing the Google docs you sent.
I think I can help with more accurate positioning of the recordings if that would help.
@cmartenson
Chris, I’ve been following you since 2020, always great diligent work. I just watched your video discussing the echo time variations of shots 1-3 and 4-8. I agree with the 2nd shooter hypothesis.
In this famous image we see Crooks. There’s a taller building probably 150 hundred feet behind Crooks as seen in this image. All sorts of good shadows from the tree, and vertical vent pipes for concealment.
- It gives the pro good overwatch of Crooks to start firing when Crooks is in position, or abort if Crooks fails to reach the roof and get into position. And he can observe law enforcement, distracted with Crooks.
- Trajectories would be nearly identical.
- There is sufficient concealment, and while the aerial of the tree shows it far away from the building, from the rally it casts nice shadow backdrop. Or that vertical pipe between your circles would be a very good place to hide behind and expose almost no roof signature from the vantage of the rally.
- Easy escape path, after the shooting. Shuffle down and away while everyone is surrounding AGR #6.
- It may help explain the echo time differences, with shots from the 2 story having a “faster echo” to position source #4 since the report is traveling forward/sideways, whereas Crooks report/echo is traveling sideways/backwards 90 degrees to source #4.
- Depending on height of trees, might also be totally obscured from both Hercules teams on the barn rooftops.
Apologies for the poor quality images but they convey the point.
That’s a heck of a good spot for a assassin, so he can observe Crooks and fire in line with his trajectories. If we focus on that taller building we can draw a straight line to where the bullets 1-3 impacted. I theorize that a professional assassin was on (or in a high section, possibly with a small section cut out for a rifle shot) of that building, essentially overlooking Crooks to see when he was in position and then firing once Crooks was in position before he could be neutralized.
That might account for the faster echo to Source 4, because it would have been about 90 degrees forward/right of that shooter. Crooks “echo” would be coming rear-ward some 90 degrees angle back to bounce off the building, and thus be slower to register on Source 4.
One other note: If you study the area 4’ in front of Crooks dead body, there are apparent rifle powder burns where we would expect his muzzle would have been. It’s very hard to count those dark marks or identify if those are patterns on the white roof, or powder burns. There are several in the channel Crooks is in, and one a few channels to his right. That is something worth looking into. I know the building has already been pressure washed. But if we could locate clear pictures that might answer a lot of questions, whether they are patterns, or powder burns and if so how many. They do not seem to appear to be roof patterns. So possibly wear/age/weathering, or powder burns.
If these are “powder burns” I count about 4 darker ones, and maybe 6 lighter ones for 10 total. Numerous ones could be left for each shot, depending on the type and orientation of his flash-hider. Theoretically, with the correct angle and type of flash hider, it could leave 2 per shot, and with what appears to be 10 scoring marks, that equals to 5 shots…
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Any improvements are more than welcome!
Exactly……lots of unanswered questions, JFK esque
If anyone has high quality video [1080] of the shot that hits the rail, i can slow it down slower than the ones he is using today.
on the sound, mic movement will change the strength of the echo, not the time between shot and echo. person holding the phone would need to move the phone 6 feet to effect the time interval by .01 s
next tiny step. Where did the 5 shot grouping end up. We know, in the 3 shot grouping, the one that hit Trump’s ear. That leaves seven, three hit spectators. Were any of the three spectators “thru an thru.” If so, we might be able to track one to the hydraulic shot, giving us a differential line. That still leaves a minimum of three bullets totally unaccounted for.
It seems very odd to me he could miss the target by so little on the first shot and not hit anything with 3 shots.
Last thought: what is the “full auto” cyclic rate on that gun? [i still hate auto correct]
Don’t know where the 8 shots landed, but we have 1 dead, Trump’s injury, 1 man was shot once, 1 man was shot once or twice, several bystanders suffered minor bullet injuries, one bullet shattered on the bleachers, and 1 hit the hydraulic lines. I have seen many different theories and re-creations of where these impacted but unfortunately the Feds contaminated and deconstructed the crime scene so it’s a best guess.
Bar napkin figuring, I assume, based on all shots in the same general trajectory:
1 bullet caused Trump’s injury and passed thru, shattering on the bleacher. Shrapnel probably caused other minor injuries.
1 bullet killed a victim, headshot
1 bullet caused 1 injury to a victim, I think torso
2 bullets caused 2 injuries to a victim, torso
1 bullet severed a hydraulic line.
That’s 6. Leaving 2 unaccounted for.
This is a rough guess.
Nothing at all unusual about that. Inherently the first shot would be presumably the most aimed/accurate. The shooter can, normally, take the most time and gauge the target’s movement to time the best shot, and the target (in this case, Trump) was unaware. Here it appears (intentionally or accidentally) a perfectly placed temple head shot that would have instantly killed President Trump but for a miracle head movement and maybe a gust of wind and a big dose of divine intervention.
Subsequent shots will be under higher pressure, and result in the target reacting and moving and seeking cover or concealment. The shooter would have to re-gain the target under recoil, breath, and pull the trigger while the target is now moving for cover. Rapid fire is generally inherently less accurate than slow steady controlled fire. The tradeoff is less accuracy but more chances/bullets.
That rifle was not fully automatic (which can fire hundreds of rounds or even thousands of rounds per minute). It is semi automatic, requiring 1 trigger pull per bullet. It can fire as fast as the operator can pull the trigger. In this case that rapid string of 5 shots is well within the capabilities of that (or any) semi-automatic firearm. Nothing abnormal about the speed of firing. For those that don’t understand, a “fully automatic” weapon would have been a poor choice for this scenario because they are much less accurate due to recoil.
[food for thought no need to respond to me]
I,m going to question the CAD guys assessment of bleacher height. i got a picture of a cop and a waste bin in front of the bleachers. might get a more accurate measurement from the 30" waste bins. [sadly i can only post one image /sadface]
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So on point one, you are contending, i am right - we need to know where the bullets landed. Note the use of the word “know” in place of “think” → Yes i already put in the FOIA request and was hoping for faster result.
on point 2 don’t ask - use math - dead guy to hydraulic lift adjust for angle of separation.
on point 3 - an AR-15 bolt assembly can be altered/converted on most makes and models of AR-15. i just don’t have that model, so that part of the message is for people who “know”. → Yes, the bolt assembly is interchangeable and costs about 50 to 200 dollars, depending on several criteria.
Thank you for your input
I had to edit i missed your last line and when i reread it i was picturing crooks trying to hump a M134 up a ladder…
What are you driving at?
Crooks, a 20 year old from an apparent middle class family, used a $50,000 registered fully automatic AR15 but managed to fire 8 or less shots?
As far as I know, as reported, it is a SEMI-AUTO DPMS Panther lower from around 2012. It also requires some sophistication to fabricate a fully auto sear (hint: it’s highly illegal, guarded information, and requires more than just a new Bolt Carrier.).
There’s no evidence it was a fully auto rifle or modified to fire fully auto and if it had been the Feds would be screaming about it…
@bigtim Yeah im not even gonna try to work you thought “know” and “think”.
lets just assume my post was: [food for thought no need to respond to me]
[Edit: i cant resist: AR-15s are not $50,000 dollar weapons — Search time 3.6 seconds: https://dpmsinc.com/ar-15/complete-guns/rifles.html ]
Have you looked at the prices of pre 1986 NFA transferable Full Auto AR/M16 type firearms.
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no. and neither do people “from an apparent middle class family”
Hi Jim,
I have downloaded your files and gone through them. I have adjusted some of the timings and locations. Of course you can run the program with your data if you disagree. I have also put the data in an array as you suggested but I don’t want to clutter the picture up with too many lines, This is the result using your sources 1, 5 and 7.
I think this is closer to reality and also closer to Chris’ latest video. I don’t want to jump to conclusions but I think someone should investigate that cop who said he looked on the roof and fell. The person who took shots 1-3 could also have been the one that helped TMC to get his riffle up there. (musings of an old IT-guy)
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LOL musings or famous last words…
I’ll upload the new pgm.
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Is this new result for Shooter 1 or 2?
Shooter 1 (shots 1-3), assuming that TMC is shooter 2 (shots 4-8).
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There is a post #511 in the Audio & Video thread authored by Juan Rur. He thinks that the sonic boom would be rather weak and could be sensed in the field only in its amplified form.
This is a testable hypothesis. If Juan’s claim is true, it follows that all these sonic cracks must show a phase shift compatible with the true distance to the nearest sound box, with Trumps mic as a reference. If true, the phase shift criterion could then be used to sort out misplaced or mislabeled videos.
Another selection criterion could be based on excluding all files, where the expected time of arrival of the indirect signal is earlier or near to the expected time of arrival of the muzzle blast signal when the hypothetical shooter position and the actual position of the mic is taken into account.
Trump was hit by the first shot that went on to strike the rail. The round in the photo is the second shot which was passing him as he finally reacted. I’ll be posting a video breakdown in a bit. It takes roughly 200 milliseconds for the pain signal to get to the brain and then another 500 milliseconds for a physical reaction, like grabbing pain point, so about 700-800 milliseconds from when the first round makes the “click” at the mic you’ll see Trump make a pain expression.
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I’m reading your post and trying to translate it into an algorithm in my mind. But I can’t. It is very difficult to use the sonic crack as it depends on the velocity of the bullet. Looking at the data, there is a rather large (10%-ish) difference in the velocity of the bullets. This ruins the precision. I will upload my spreadsheets, one of which has a table of avg bullet velocity at various distances (I found some trajectory calculator online for 223 Remmington/16" barrel).
The second method that you describe may be usable once we have a decent estimate of the shooters location. I think we can almost be certain that shots 4-8 were fired by TMC, and we know his exact location. From there we can expand.
(until something breaks and we have to start over again 
)