Second Waves Of Coronavirus Infections Are Pretty Much Guaranteed

As much as we would just like it to go away, second waves of covid-19 infections are pretty much a certainty at this point.We’re already seeing initial proof of this in Asia in the very countries that have to-date been most successful at suppressing the virus: Hong Kong, China and South Korea.

Even after extended lulls in cases, they’re finding that opening social movement back up results in flare-ups in new covid-19 clusters.

It’s quite possible that these second waves will be followed by third and fourth waves, as a growing number of scientists worry that the coronavirus may never go away – as it can hide in asymptomatic carriers and because it mutates so rapidly that a permanent vaccine may not be realistic.

Don’t forget to get your free download of Peak Prosperity’s book Prosper!. Given its relevance to preparing for any kind of crisis, pandemic or otherwise, Chris and I are now making it available to the world for free during the covid-19 lockdown.

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This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at

Dear Chris,
Please think about the following two sentences:
“I’ll believe it when I see it”
I’ll see it when I believe it

Alaska is opening up and slowly, trying to return to normal. I went to several garage sales yesterday with one of my grand-children. The first garage sale had a sign that said “masks required” all the rest had no such sign. People were trying to distance themselves, some wore masks and some people didn’t. Since all the sales were outdoors there were a few who didn’t wear a mask, but mostly people did. All were respectful.
I also took the munchkin to Subway for lunch. No tables and a barricade in front of the food so customers could not get close to the food. The same people were working there before the quarantine were there yesterday.
Perhaps we should create a sign with relevant statistics. If you are under 50 and in good health your chances of dying from the virus is what? 1%? By comparison what are our chances of dying from driving? Do we stop driving?
I feel fortunate, I got the virus, got over it, no problem and do not live in fear. (I am in my 60’s) Hug my grand-kids and go to subway. Shove a mask in my pocket and put it on to make YOU feel comfortable.
Recently talked to a friend who has only been out once in about the last two months. This person is scared to leave her home. Her world has gotten small and she is afraid, just as the Overlords want her to be. That’s not how I want to live.
Whats your belief and fear level? I hear fear in some members here. Some, not so much.

I’m a business owner that has been strongly impacted by the virus situation. I meet with my management team weekly to strategize on how we can adapt the business. My business is not in the medical field, but why would we expect them to work differently. These studies don’t pay for themselves. They often are applying for grants, or justifying budgets from parent businesses. People holding those purse strings will be doing the same thing I and my team does, strategize on how to stay in business. Furthermore, it would be naive to think that people at this high level of finance have no conflicts of interest. Their moral fiber would be sorely tested by the choice of presenting people with a treatment program that costs a few dollars, or patented therapies that support monopolistic price opportunities, particularly if they would personally benefit from such. I think we are observing just more examples of where morals stand in the U.S. Anything goes, and nothing matters. No conspiracy theory need apply, it is just our culture as presently practiced.
Another fine topic for an enterprising reporter with some integrity would be an investigation on conflicts of interest among top tier health officials. Although, good luck to them getting permission to publish from their editor. If their news organization gets any advertising dollars from companies that also get implicated, well there’s another conflict of interest. The human condition does not make things easy.

My symptoms are:

  1. Difficulty getting a full breath (although I can still jog lightly)
  2. Light headed (not dizzy or losing balance)
  3. Feeling faint when I get up quickly from sitting
    *No coughing, sore throat, sinus trouble, fever, chills, muscle pain, or loss of smell
    Likely got it at Walmart (place of employment)
    I’m concerned about re-infection and mid to long term effects. All bets are off when you are dealing with a bio-weapon / gain of function experiment gone wrong.
    Remedies I’ve tried so far: Nebulized Silver Sol, Wormwood extract, Vitamin D, Natural sunlight, black tea, Super Quercetin, Milk Thistle, Zinc Picolinate, Vitamin C
    Thanks to PeakProsperity for the invaluable info and hard work!

Don’t wait to see if you can get hydroxychlorquine, azythromycin and zinc. You probably don’t need the quercetin if you can get hydroxychlorquine. If your regular doctor won’t order it for you keep calling until you find someone who will.

I live in Lake Co.- a rural county by the Bay Area. Despite large amounts of cases in the counties surrounding us, Lake County has only has 8 cases (yes, everyone wears masks.) The last case was very interesting and I wanted to get your thoughts on it. Out of precaution, on April 14 the county health officials tested all the inmates and correctional officers at the county jail. Nobody was showing symptoms so the tests were not prioritized and, as a result, the tests results were not sent back until May 5. One inmate had tested positive. They immediately isolated him, but he had been with the general population for weeks. They continued to test everyone at the facility. No one else ever tested positive and the infected inmate tested negative twice and has already recovered. Everyone should have gotten this virus the jail and I thought it was odd that they didnt. Is it possible the tests are returning false positives? If so, maybe everyone that didn’t show symptoms never really had it. But if they are testing for antibodies then that theory goes out the window. Does anybody have a reasonable explanation? I heard California gave all inmates hydroxychloroquine to all the inmates and officers at the jails. If that’s the case, maybe it works pretty well as a preventative medicine after all. Any thoughts?
Also, big thanks. My father-in-law has diabetes and high blood pressure. Hes also notorious for not taking care of himself. Thanks to your YouTube videos, which I make him watch, he wears masks everywhere he goes and has started taking vitamins.

Ran across an intriguing possibility: the HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) is generally thought to be around 60%. That’s the numbers that the models use. I believe this is because that is what is observed in vaccination programs.
However, this assumes a random selection of the population gets a vaccination.
In a “natural” pandemic, the distribution of infection is not random. Not to put too fine a point on it, but more social people (those with more social connections) will end up getting it and spreading it around to more people. These super-spreaders (or even, modestly-higher-spreaders) will get infected first.
However, once all the super-spreaders are taken out of the picture (either from an unfortunate outcome, or by conferred immunity) they won’t be doing the spreading anymore. This will drop the R0 of the virus, not because of the virus itself, but because those darned overly social people aren’t causing trouble any longer.
Bottom line: this paper suggests that the HIT may be between 15-20%, not 60% or higher.
And in fact, in Sweden we are seeing roughly 17% infected, and we have seen infections peak, and they are starting to fall. Note that Sweden is a useful example because lockdowns are not driving their numbers artificially lower.
Note too that NYC has roughly the same percentage infected.

The culture of a community or country has a huge impact in battling CV-19. The American culture (or lack of) has to be one of the worst to this end. Americans are very resistant to having their “freedoms” curtailed in any way. I haven’t witnessed any of the protests firsthand, but all the video I’ve seen from all over the country shows virtually no one wearing a mask & minimal social distancing practices. These people are so self-involved they can’t even see how their behaviors argue strongly against their voiced demands. People can’t comprehend that wearing masks, social distancing, etc. is mostly about protecting others in society. Somehow many Americans translate “being free” as having the right to be ultra selfish and tread all over the welfare of others. Every infection risks the lives of so many others. If people simply behaved appropriately with basic preventative practices, then parts of the economy could open up with minimal medical risks to society at large. Make no mistake, parts of the economy have to get going as the indirect effects of CV-19 is going to kill way more than CV-19 itself. Having said that, there are certain businesses that simply do not pass the risks vs. benefits test. I would include hair cutting places, most restaurants/bars (take-out is ok), gyms, etc. My suspicion is that our “leaders/politicians” are afraid to make hard decisions on prohibited business practices out of fear of political backlash from all those Americans who demand their “freedoms”. Society needs to change and adapt, not unlike all living things, when confronted with new environmental pressures.
In regards to Sweden, their current numbers are not consistent with success in my book (approximately 10x worse than their neighboring Scandinavian countries). Only time will shed light on which methods are most effective in the overall management of this outbreak. Keeping schools open is plain ridiculous if you ask me. Kids go to clustered schools and spread it to their family when they come home. Yes, that’s probably the surest method to have it burn through a population. I rarely come across any articles in the MSM in regards to the medical aftermath of all those who “recovered” from CV-19. Most people equate “recovered” as not dying and returning close to their previous state of health. I think this extremely inaccurate and very incomplete. Much more time has to pass before there can be a good quantification of the resulting medical sequela of CV-19 for those who “recovered”.
Now Trump is pushing for schools to reopen per what is reported by the MSM. Maybe burn through is his plan?? Screw that, our kids will not be attending school.

And the pharmacists are instructed to rat out the doctors.
So much for “my body, my choice.”

Curiosier and curiosier.
"Importantly, the market samples are genetically identical to human SARS-CoV-2 isolates and were therefore most likely from human sources. "
Not that many here didn’t already know that, but can’t be denied anymore or muddied about (you’d hope).

Always remember that picture you see was carefully selected to push an agenda. Taken from another angle they may actually be six feet apart or the crowd cropped out of the picture might have masks.
Many Americans have died so that we may be free. Many Americans understand freedom comes at a cost.

British paper reporting this:
(The Daily Mail is often of questionable trust but it does pay journalists better than most, so inamongst the dross, decent information can arise.)

Kathy, I question everything I see. I completely get that almost all things in the MSM, social media, etc. have a slant to them. I’ve seen video from the MSM, cell phone video from protest participants on social media, etc. that has consistently presented a similar picture. I would love to see video of protesters behaving appropriately in regards to CV-19 if anyone has it. I have a very open mind, and I always like more info than less.
I would argue that most Americans do not have a full appreciation and understanding for those who have died in efforts to protect America’s freedom. The United States used to have one of the strongest collective cultures in the world where people were more concerned about the collective whole than their individual pursuits.
Again, “freedom” for one citizen does not equate to having a license to imperil others in society. “Freedom” does not equate to open anarchy. Life is the first stated unalienable right listed in the Declaration of Independence.

I’m finding evidence the authors of HCQ studies were paid by (or receive benefits from) Gilead (eg. Qing Xie). This is something to consider. The HCQ studies are so bad they appear deliberate. Several studies are using excessive amounts of HCQ to induce negative reactions (> 1000 mg per day).
Prior research by author was fully funded by Gilead.

Hi, David I presume?
Thanks for the article, gives me some hope. I read the article, pretty nice actually. The model is most definitely a huge improvement, but unfortunately there are still some uncertainties. Time will tell.
Grts, Dave (or David, how many of us are there over here?)

In reaction to Kathy’s post, I searched information about HCQ use in Germany. My interpretation: there seems hardly any resistance there. Additionally, it seems that there is a large off-label use, and it is allowed to treat patients with HCQ.
Question to German pipinauts: is this true?
here is part of the google-translated text:
April 6, 2020 - The Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices has issued an order for the use of medicinal products containing hydroxychloroquine. The background is their increased off-label use in the treatment of COVID-19 patients. The arrangement is intended to ensure the care of chronically ill patients who are affected by the approved indications.
Specifically, the institute has ordered that the use of medicinal products containing hydroxychloroquine outside of the approved indications (off-label use) and outside of clinical trials should only take place in the context of an individual healing attempt in inpatient-monitored COVID-19 patients.

Hi Chris,
Could you tell us how you found this? I think that more posters here are interested in this very useful skill!
Grts, Dave

“individual healing attempt in inpatient-monitored COVID-19 patients.”
Doesn’t ‘healing attempts’ mean someone already ill? Doesn’t ‘inpatient’ mean someone already admitted to a hospital? Maybe this is the same as in the US.