Hi Sluggo,
I’m in the process of creating a CAD drawing of the trajectory of the first bullet in the Trump assassination attempt using your elevations. I’m completely unfamiliar with LiDAR. Is that the source of your elevation data?
What I’m having difficulty reconciling is your ground elevation at Building 6. I know it’s not much (it’s all that I have to go on) but Google Earth indicates that the elevation on the south side of the building is 1337. The unknown architect that Chris quotes claims the building to be about 15’ 5 3/8" tall at the west end. My best estimate is 15’ 2 3/8" plus the ridge cap, so about the same. Your data, I believe, seems to indicate that the elevation “behind the peak where the shooter’s body was located (is) 1350.2 ft”. Are you saying that the peak of the roof is 1350.2 or that’s the elevation where his body was located? Head or feet? Then you go on to say in the next line “estimate shooters profile above peak at 1.5 ft 1351.7”, the top of his head or the barrel of his rifle? The elevation that I understand you to assert at the peak of the roof is 1350.2 (and the shooter raised up 1.5’ above it). If I subtract the height of the building (15’ 5"±) that means that the ground elevation is 1334.75, 2.25’ below what Google Earth indicates. I didn’t see that you specified what the ground elevation is on the south side of Building 6. Does LiDAR indicate something different than 1337?
Anyway, I don’t mean to be a stickler for details, but I am. 2.25’ in elevation, whether on the ground or on the roof makes a big difference in trajectory. I’m just trying to be as accurate as possible and understand your elevations. By the way, I was the one who found and supplied the Speedy Bleachers drawing, and the height at the top of the back railing is 11’ 2 1/2", not 11’.
The 1350.2 elevation is beyond (north) of the peak approximately where the shooter’s head supposedly was. 1351.7 was an estimate of where the shooter’s head would be above the point noted above.
The ground elevation south of the building is around 1337 but the terrain dips to 1334 starting at 1337 30ft from the building and sloping down toward the building, leveling off to 1334 about 10ft from the building. The building footprint is carved out of the surrounding terrain.
Source of data is USGS National LiDAR Dataset. I downloaded the LiDAR and made the DSM from it.
You want me to export an XML file for you so you can bring the surface into CAD?
Roger, quick question. What is the distance you have for Crooks’s location on the roof to Trump’s head?
Hi guys,
Thanks for all the feedback. The more we are the more accurate we get. Just to clarify, we should all be using the same software to avoid many questions and discrepancies. I have found that “Google Earth Pro” has the best ability to exactly point to the points of interest and to get the exact elevations. Please go ahead and download Google Earth pro for free, enter “Butler Farm Show Airport” in the search. There you can find our place of interest, then simply click the ruler and don’t forget to activate in the Path tab “Show elevation profile” Set the path of interest and you get the results as images below.
Ground elevation of AGR building is 2 feet LOWER than Pres. Trump stage area.
Map website: Elevation Finder
Hi Sluggo,
I simply used the drawing from Chris’ video (see below). I set my point on the peak of the roof. I would be glad to be more accurate if you have further information what needs to be added.
As for the back railing, yes it is 11 2 1/2, but if you look at the video, the impact is lower. See my post 127
Yes, that’s exactly what I have indicated, I added 2 feet to the stage hight, also you can see it in my excel sheet that I added 2 feet to stage hight
Hi Arthur,
Yes, I agree, he is a bit too far away. I will change his position for the next simulation. Another person drew my attention that when you get measured you have a straight back. Older people tend to have a lower posture as you can see in the below picture. Therefore, I will move Trump more towards the mic and decrease the height of his ear a little.
I come up with 15.5 and 12.21. I’d say those numbers are pretty solid. 
One more suggestion would be to create a somewhat larger circle to represent a range of possible ear locations. This would account for the uncertainty. Then you can model all the shots that could pass through that circle - as opposed to the one shot that would hit a precisely placed and small ear target.
Hi Arthur,
It was a good idea you had, and we can stop looking just after the first circle! If you simply trace Crooks bullet to the bleachers you see that the line crosses the Mic stand, making it impossible to place Trumps right ear next to it. Everybody at home is able to verify this by printing out the top view and using a ruler and pencil.
Either we are completely missing something, or we can prove that Crooks could not have shot Trump in the ear and hit the bleachers.
I have a small doubt that Crooks position is not correct because I took a helicopter view from Sky news. Now with the good drone video, I will be able to determine the position of Crooks more accurately. I will double check his position and trace the line again.
OK, I got the new position as you can see below. There is a difference between this position and the initial version. As I stated in the previous post, I did not have an accurate picture of the rooftop. Now I was able to get it from the drone video with HD quality. New position of Crooks body is 35.75 feet from the roof edge or ¼ of the total length of the roof of building 6. At a first glance, nothing changes for our simulation, I will enter all the new positions we have found together and make a backtrace of the bullet and the bullet trace of Crooks to the bleachers corner to see if it still crosses through the mic stand.
What are the reasons everybody is sofar ignoring/excluding the possibility of a second shooter behind Crooks position but on building 1? That possible shooter with a comparable AR-15 with an adequate sniper scope and even a flash suppressor would also have a clear sight on Trump, would be totally obscured by trees to hercules-1 and 2 teams and local security around building 6. It is only about a 100 meters behind Crooks.
Is this possibilty ignored/excluded because it does not match the recorded sound signatures (muffled) of shots 1 to 3?
Or is it because all the attention and focus is (intentionally) diverted to Crooks shooting position and around buiding 6?
I think people have thought of this possibility, but I don’t remember seeing any evidence of a shooter on building 1. I’d love it if a drone operator would take photos from there to see what the view would be like. Edit: I think attention is probably also focused on building 6 because that’s what the audio analysis suggests. I suppose that if somebody was shooting from building 1, there would be a greater time difference between the crack and the boom.
now we are back tracing shot one, assuming that the first bullet hit Trumps ear and then the bleachers corner. This gives us two points in space. With two points in space, you can backtrace from where the shot came from. Now it definitely seems that under above mentioned conditions that the 1st shot is comming from the direction of building 6.
OK, first, thank you so much for all your good feedback. Together we are strong! We are getting more and more close the actual situation. Below is the latest simulation. Please keep coming with your comments and try to debunk! In the meantime, we could start drafting up our preliminary conclusions:
- Under the condition that the first shot hits Trumps ear and then hits the bleachers right upper corner, defining 2 points in space, we can exclude Crooks for taking that shot, since his position is not in line with the ear and the corner of the blisters.
- Back tracing the bullet (blue line) leads to building 6, but not to the position of Crooks
- If Crooks indeed hits the corner of the bleachers (red line), Trump would have to be standing where the mic stand is, to have his right ear hit, which is impossible.
I am open for comments and please start debunking!
Hi Arthur,
I could change the position of Trump as per your request as below picture. Please also see my newest post 157 for more details.
Here are same photos that will help determining the height of roof.
1 - Video Frame of James Copenhaver phone.
2 - James Copenhaver camera eyepiece heigth.
3 - Position of injure on David Dutch.
4 - David Dutch and James Copenhaver relative position.
The 3D model must agree with the line of sigth from James Copenhaver phone Video Frame.