So It's Back To First Principles (Part 1)

[chris-nolan]

I was doing a hypothetical thought experiment to help focus on a point I think you are missing. I am not suggesting to cherry pick evidence. Factor in the CNN article if you want.

You think the ABC article saying he went down to the building’s first level means he had to exit the door of that building. That is wrong. My point is that ABC could still write “down to the building’s first level” even if he exited door 9. I’m not sure how you could argue otherwise. I was just trying to explain what I said before about you reading too much into that sentence in a different way.

Here’s a sequence of events you can’t rule out:

1 - ABC says Nichol went down to the buildings first level. (AGR3)
2 - He then moves to AGR6
3 - CNN says he pushes open a door (of AGR6)

This also matches perfectly with this slide showing Nichol meeting a uniformed patrol outside AGR6, which you have to assume can’t be talking about before the shooting (even though the slide starts at 1806 and ends one minute before the shooting in the AAR timeline) in order to fit your theory.

The ABC sentence you put so much weight into does not tell us which door he exited.

[vegaspatriot]

I don’t disagree with both of your ABC and CNN arguments when considered in isolation, except that either could suggest any door, with door 8 being the most convenient for continuing to search for Crooks from since he was heading towards Sheetz. However, when I have two reports of an interview with the same witness, I do not consider them in isolation.

Look at the HSGAC transcripts as an example. Multiple interviewers, same witness. Would you not take responses to one interviewer’s question into consideration when examining a response to another interviewer’s question? I certainly wouldn’t.

Edit: And don’t forget the time reference associated with the event. Clearly Trump was already into his speech when Crooks fired the shots, and it wasn’t until after shots were fired that Nicol exited Door 9. Like I keep saying, all of the evidence must be considered.

[redranamber]

The officers that pull up to Door 9 clearly are not meeting with Nicol, they run around the South side of the building scoping out the roof, then run back PAST door 9, still no Nicol, to the corridor/cubby to attempt to scale to roof, Collins is boosted, they all scatter, shots are fired, and only then after all shots fired and shooter is down does Nicol even appear on this side of the building. He is clearly not meeting with the officers that pull up near door 9 to tell them to look out for this guy AFTER shots are fired and shooter is said to be down over the radio by Murcko, his fellow AGR sniper. I don’t see anything pointing to Nicol accessing this door until after shots are fired. If he had, he would not have come across patrol units, as they had not arrived at door 9 yet.

[vegaspatriot]

@redranamber

If he had, he would not have come across patrol units, as they had not arrived at door 9 yet.

Your mind is just as sharp as your “Eagle Eye.” Very good point. That didn’t come to my mind.

[chris-nolan]

I did consider the 2 articles together in my sequence of events. You can’t rule them out can you? I am not saying this is what happened. I am saying it could be what happened. I don’t know which door he pushed open before the shooting, but I don’t think you can say for sure either.

1 - ABC says Nichol went down to the buildings first level. (AGR3)
2 - He then moves to AGR6
3 - CNN says he pushes open a door (of AGR6)

And let me add:

4 - He meets with officers outside AGR6 (as described in the slide and articles) who then take off in opposite directions before the other cars pull up with different officers in the same spot a few minutes later.

5 - After shots are fired, Nichol exits the door of AGR6 again. (You are assuming he only exited once, and the AAR slide refers to this time even though he is not meeting any patrols then. Why would they list this moment on the slide?)

And to RedRanAmber (sorry I don’t have enough replies to go separately), you are assuming we aren’t talking about an earlier time with different officers. We don’t have footage around the time Nichol pushed open the door. We don’t have footage of patrol units outside either door at the time he would have pushed it open. There are too many assumptions from you guys.

You assume Nichol could not have exited the door before and after the shooting. You assume there were no patrol officers there before Collins pulled up for him to speak to. You are also assuming the slide is incorrect when it literally says Nichol went to door 9 to meet a patrol before the shooting! The door 9 theory is not contradicted by anything as strong as that.

Nichol could have met patrol officers (who we don’t have bodycams for) outside the door before the shooting and they took off in both directions before everybody else pulled up. We see someone walking towards the road when Crooks is running along the roof. There could be others we can’t see. I am pretty sure we see another officer around the other side of the building who could have seen Nichol at door 9 beforehand.

I would probably he bet he did push open door 13 before the shooting, only because it’s closest to where Nichol was and the picnic table but only a very small amount of money as the evidence is quite soft. He could have thought he was going to sheetz and wanted to look left at the carpark to see him heading there. ** I should add VP makes a good point about door 8 making more sense for this. But perhaps he was more familiar with door 9 or there with some other issue getting to 8.

!!! EDIT TO REPLY TO BELOW (I can’t reply for 2 hours and I have to go to bed)

I know the AAR is not reliable. I am not basing my analysis on it. I just pointed out it fits what I argued for independently of that (which is another possible interpretation of the same articles you are looking at) and that it doesn’t fit your theory. I am not the one even saying I know which door he pushed open.

That 1812 slide is confusing. But it’s not impossible for him to have gone there after pushing open a door. He could have been there in between pushing open the door twice, or he could have gone there after the 2 pushes. But even if that slide is completely wrong, you can’t then leap to assume the slide that says he met a uniformed patrol outside door 9 before the shooting is really referring to a time after the shooting when he went out the door and didn’t really meet a uniformed patrol.

I appreciate fleshing this all out with you guys also.

[vegaspatriot]

@chris-nolan

This also matches perfectly with this slide showing Nichol meeting a uniformed patrol outside AGR6, which you have to assume can’t be talking about before the shooting (even though the slide starts at 1806 and ends one minute before the shooting in the AAR timeline) in order to fit your theory.

In my analysis of the Door 9 & 13 Events I start off with an analysis of the BeC AAR to point out its multiple inaccuracies. One should validate the accuracy of evidence before using it for analysis purposes. If you are going to base your analysis on the map you referenced as presented in the AAR, then you also have to consider this timeline map as presented. How do you account for Nicol being in this location of AAR Building 4 at 18:12?

Here is a link to my analysis in case you missed my validation of the AAR timeline entries and maps.

Timeline Analysis - Doors 9 & 13 Events (Rev 2).pdf - Files - File Browser

Edit: Since the shared site links can be a little quirky when linking to files in subfolders, here is the PDF file directly.

Timeline Analysis - Doors 9 & 13 Events (Rev 1).pdf (2.9 MB)

[redranamber]

@vegaspatriot

Your mind is just as sharp as your “Eagle Eye.” Very good point. That didn’t come to my mind.

I appreciate that! As well, I very much appreciate the input and insight from all of you into this! I like this collaborative format as we can approach things from different angles and find different ways to bridge the gaps in our understanding of how this played out.
We are indeed stronger together!

/

My find on Soler and spotting his R-1 patch prompted me to go back through bwc footage looking for more identifiers. I’m starting out spotting this interesting duplicate patch in Gianvito’s cam:

B11 - O’Sche

B11 - Bitts

Also does this look like Oesterling to anyone else? He does have a BuC patch on his shoulder, but the time at which he appears in Gianvito film makes it look like he missed the Terradyne pulling out!?:

[vegaspatriot]

Hmm? It does look like him, but the guy in Gianvito’s bodycam is in a BeC ESU uniform, and we have Oesterling as being with Saxonburg Boro (BuC) from the November 2023 article. Is that wrong? Did he have a job transfer since that article?

The general uniform difference, green vest (BuC) versus cammo vest (BeC) is not definitive, since we see both in the BuC team photo.

Edit: The patch in the photo on the left looks more like BeC to me, until I zoom in anyways. Hmm?

[redranamber]

Here’s the closest angle I could catch to get a better look at it, and it doesn’t appear round to me as in the BeC, but more in the shape of the BuC patch and I can just faintly make out the emblem in the same spot here on his patch. I’m not 100% sure it is him, though he is heading in the direction of the Terradyne (or at least where it was until it left!). I think the time frame of his appearance here fits with the radio calls.

[vegaspatriot]

While searching for others who might look like the guy in Gianvito’s bodycam. I realized I’ve been a little sloppy in my slides for “Other Personnel.” I copied and pasted the ESU slides, including the patch, despite most of them being Butler Township Traffic Patrol. I will correct that and convert one of the slides to being dedicated to traffic patrol.

[vegaspatriot]

I agree with you on the patch after zooming in on it.

When Gianvito and Michel headed for AGR there were two other ESU members walking with them, which I assumed they continued to follow them. I thought you were pointing those others out, one of them looking like Oesterling. Are you saying they did not follow Gianvito to AGR? I’ll buy that, and it does resolve the timing issue.

Edit: I think I connected the photos in the first part of your post with the Oesterling photos. After reading it again they are separate topics, the first being a seque into the second.

[kincses-zsolt]

@daniel59

A chainsaw to cut down the tree?

There was a bolt cutter.

[redranamber]

So the first two I pointed out I do believe followed Gianvito over to the AGR, I’m going to have to look through a few other cams I think to fully confirm though because once Gianvito is helped through the fence by I believe it’s Costanza we see him rush to catch up with Michel and then I don’t think we see the rest of them again in this cam, though it’s my understanding they were heading over to AGR as a group: O’sche, Bitts, Gianvito, Michel, and Costanza. But as they are passing between the truck and the med tent(i assume it is?) this guy pops up heading past in the other direction seemingly in a hurry, and I assume by his timing, patches, and similarity of face, direction of travel, etc to be Oesterling trying to get back to the Terradyne.

[vegaspatriot]

I posted an edit to my reply explaining my error. This is good information because I’m just getting to that time in my timeline analysis of the terradyne and bearcat, and I am trying to include video evidence of the location of key players in relation to the movements of the armor and the radio logs. So, thank you for bringing it up. Your timing is uncanny.

[kincses-zsolt]

@redranamber

What isn’t clear, though, is if the agent was referring specifically to this particular backpack amongst all kinds of things strewn about the rooftop.

More specificly, what objects came out from his back pack.

[redranamber]

Of all the items across the roof it doesn’t appear to me that any of them came from the backpack or the shooter aside from the backpack itself, the rifle, and then the things taken from his pockets. The rest appear to me to be first responder/IFAK items, though it is in fact hard to be sure.

[redranamber]

coincidence working to our benefit! Fantastic!

[redranamber]

@chris-nolan

And to RedRanAmber (sorry I don’t have enough replies to go separately), you are assuming we aren’t talking about an earlier time with different officers. We don’t have footage around the time Nichol pushed open the door. We don’t have footage of patrol units outside either door at the time he would have pushed it open. There are too many assumptions from you guys.

No need to be sorry, we’re well aware of the limitations to new users, and try to work around it. It is harder to track as edits don’t generate a notification, but still.

Perhaps it is less assumption, and more inference based on presented evidence extrapolated. You’re right, we don’t have video of the door prior to Collins pulling up to it, but in his entire approach to the building we see no other officers in that area. Ditto on Blasko’s approach, and Kuss’ as well. Assuming he actually met with these officers outside door 9 before BT arrived, where did they disappear to? Why were they not nearby searching for the person of interest? How did they manage to disappear so quickly, and not reappear at some point? Clearly it wouldn’t have been any of the BT units that responded, nor any of the people that booked it over from the rally or showed up in tac vehicles. So, then who were these officers and where did they disappear to?

[redranamber]

Here’s an article identifying BT officer Jim Sasse, unfortunately not an in uniform pic, but still provides ID outside the J13 event.

‘ChildFirst’ helps victims, Butler police | TribLIVE.com

[vegaspatriot]

Here is another update to the Recognition Tool. There were enough substantive changes to warrant another posting. Thanks to everyone who pointed out corrections needed and made suggestions for improvement to it. The accuracy of the information has improved considerably as a result of it.

Hold on, “Eagle Eye” had a last-minute finding.

Here we go.

Recognition Tools (Rev 16).pdf (5.4 MB)