Your comment is completely justified. When shooting from a lower point beyond the vents, the fence indeed becomes a problem.
Now that we have video evidence showing the exact origin of shot 1, we can easily trace the bullet’s path forward.
With three confirmed points in the trajectory—the origin of the shot next to window 2 (as seen on the video), Trump’s ear, and the top corner of the bleacher railing—the line is clearly defined, leaving no more room for inaccuracies. We can now draw this line in the CAD system to check for inconsistencies.
Looking back at our earlier simulation of the back-traced bullet, the trajectory pointed toward Vent 2.
As we discussed before, this was only an estimation based on the back trace. With the shot origin now verified, we can better understand where the small inaccuracies came from. When back-tracing, our trajectory appeared too high compared to the relative height of Vent 2 and the impact point shown in the video.
Using the CAD to determine the sea level of the bleachers in respect of the other values gives us the following sea level: 1335.558 ft
Since we use the ARG 6 sea level as the zero reference, the difference in sea level between the ARG 6 building and the bleachers is therefore 1335.558 – 1335.27 = 0.288 ft . Adding this difference to the height of the bleacher corner (11.093 ft) gives the impact height of Shot 1: 11.381 ft.
Next, we notice a slight horizontal offset between Vent 2 and the origin of shot 1 (near window 2). This is most likely caused by discrepancies between Google Maps’ overhead imagery and the Reuters drone footage. Google Maps recently updated its top view of the Butler Farm, now showing the new barn at the rally site. The roof of the barns in this newer image are much better aligned, with less perspective distortion. Using this updated photo to rematch with the Reuters top view provides a more accurate alignment:
This new reference image can be used by anyone to trace 2D trajectories. It appears to be the most accurate alignment available to date.
With this correction, the trajectory line is perfect, with all three points aligning exactly.
For those who want to verify in their own CAD system, here are the heights of the three points:
- Origin of Shot 1: 7 ft (1342.27 ft at sea level)
- Trump’s ear: 10.68 ft (1345.95 ft at sea level, with 48-inch podium)
- Bleacher railing impact: 11.381 ft (1346.65 ft at sea level)
As you can see, this clearly shows a trajectory of a rising (ascending) bullet, making it impossible for Crooks to have achieved this trajectory since his rifle was positioned higher than Trump’s ear.
Now, regarding potential collisions: when checking against the fences, Fence 1 does appear to present a possible obstruction (whereas Fence 2 does not), which supports your concern.
However, since September 2024 we have suspected that shots originated from this exact position. In reviewing the line of fire, we found notches deliberately cut out of Fence 1.
These notches align precisely with the shot trajectory. It is highly unlikely this was a coincidence.
To answer your question directly: yes, the fence would have blocked the trajectory, but it appears the fence was deliberately modified—by cutting out a substantial notch—so the shot could pass through unobstructed.
This has been a lot of information. I’ll pause here to invite questions, comments, and counter-evidence.
