So It's Back To First Principles

If the picture posted by the FBI is accurate, there is nothing about the condition of the rifle to stop it from functioning. The bullet did not touch the buffer tube or the parts inside at all. Before the pic, it was all conjecture about the condition.

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I wondered immediatly about the energetic “I will keep pointing out what I have evidence for”. Why actually? Like a representative of the one and only true faith. But we have his word for TMZ and the flying casings after all.

Some people think of things from their supposed end, and probably no one is completely free of that. Yet the bullet casings and recoil discussion reminds me a lot of the amazing shapes you occasionally see in the clouds, animals, dragons, ghosts and certainly also saviors. Or the amazingly clear face on the surface of Mars, which fascinated me for a long time: Pareidololia.

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Aha. Thanks. I didn’t look hard enough.

Agreed.

I’ve repeatedly had to correct folks who re-state this INCORRECT FACT. The first shooter (whoever it was) did NOT MISS. Had Trump been a static target, rather than unpredictable movement and perhaps a timely gust of wind, it was a direct fatal headshot to the temple. Even with the last moment movement, it was still a hit. Whoever pulled that trigger, knew what he was doing. Subsequent shots, however, would have been inherently less accurate (1st shot offers time to aim, subsequent shots heap on stress and require re-adjusting the rifle, rush, moving sight picture, etc.). So taking luck away, the first aimed shot is going to be the most accurate.

Certainly plausible, except I doubt he would have put anything more than the barrel resting on the ridge cap. As you’ve pointed out this could have caused the first 3 shots to sound different than the followup 5 shots, if he moved to a kneeling or other position moving the rifle barrel/muzzle farther from the metallic roof surface.

Fantastic. Here’s things I think MUST be looked into.

  1. Those AGR#6 vents, inside, outside, the entire AGR#6 interior inspected and photographed and mapped including the attic behind those vents. What are the vents connected to, do they open, is it possible or not to have a snipers nest there, etc.?
  2. The 2nd floor counter sniper rooms, and all those windows on all sides.
  3. All the relevant door access points and how they lock (manual key, key card, etc).
  4. The AGR 2 story building rooftop, I believe #7. The video you took is helpful but someone needs to do a detailed investigation of that rooftop, access, hiding spots, any evidence of a shooter up there, etc.
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We cannot see the exact condition of the buffer tube, but it appears likely undamaged and just the plastic shell of the fully extended Magpul stock was damaged. Assuming that is the case, the buffer tube and more importantly the spring and buffer inside presumably were undamaged and the rifle should continue to function without problem.

Furthermore, taking this a step forward, even assuming the rearmost end of the buffer tube and spring were damaged, I don’t think that would cause a stoppage and the rifle would likely still continue to fire in semi-automatic mode, or at worst manual mode (single shot, manual charging between shots). I think it would continue to operate without issue.

It is possible Crooks had a different rifle, magazine, or ammunition related failure but that’s total speculation without any evidence. So there’s no direct evidence to suggest the rifle was inoperable.

I think he stopped firing because someone was shooting at him!

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Hi KHunter,

And welcome, great to see you here and I am happy you addressed this topic before posting your video. We should absolutely look at each data point together and once we agree together you can go ahead and post your findings on YouTube. Something I really would have appreciated Gary would have done before posting his video, because according to our calculations, he posted a completely wrong number of Trumps height and debunked all our findings of a possible 2nd shooter.

Shall we take it step by step?

I already see a controversial topic of which I was not aware of, namely Trumps height. I did a quick Google research and found out that 10’ 3” is exaggerated because they usually take his height and divide it by his weight, so Trump has a very big interest to be as tall as possible and to be as light as possible, but people on Twitter debunked it showing this Tweet:

I would need more time to do more research, or maybe the community in this forum can do more research for us. His height is therefore ranging from 5’ 11” - 6’ 3” ?

The stage height I would like to get back to you at a later stage.

Shoes, I agree, we did not include this.

I think a bit more fine tuning for Trumps height is necessary and we should definitely agree on the same numbers that add up the total height of Trumps ear.

The bleachers:

Let’s take the first number of 12’2" which you mention which I think is not correct according to our @schroederized who has a 45 year experience in CAD drawing. He was the one who defined this height. Maybe he can provide us with his DXF drawing for better understanding. But this is the latest post from him about this topic:

So shall we take these two points (Trump height and Blister height) as our first two points of discussion?

IMO, if anything was resting on the ridge cap, it was the handguard, not the barrel.

I know I’m not the same height at 70, that I was at 25. My driver’s license still lists my 25YO height.

Well that all sounds great…you guys knock yourselves out. You have to remember that some of us are old and retired. Technology back in my day consisted of an 8-track tape deck and a rotary telephone. I feel a sense of accomplishment just having figured out how to “somewhat” use a desktop computer and a drone.

The video link that I shared comes from a folder on this website. Are you yinz telling me @cmartenson is uploading fake videos into the PP folders? Great! Now I have to find somewhere else to hang out. :exploding_head:

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What evidence has led you to decide there were two shooters? Hopefully, it is not the echoes and the angles. Those would never hold up in court and the 4 or 5 people working on them on this site can’t even agree. The two-shooter hypothesis is in the yellow for me, but maybe one of us will change our opinions as more evidence is revealed.

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Welcome. The more opinions the better.

I’ve heard this expressed all over the internet but it’s wrong. The shot was off and had nothing to do with the slight head turn. The wind? Possibly a wee bit but not for a pro. Also, a pro would’ve had another bullet on the way before Trump removed his hand from his ear with the wide left of the first shot corrected. There’s no stress for subsequent shots from a pro. I’m not revealing my background but I have some shooting experience. Keeping your head straight, take your index finger and point it at your temple keeping it about an inch from your head. Now turn your head to the right. Where’s your index finger pointing?

I’m trying to get the floor plans or access to the AGR Building. It was encouraging to see the building unguarded today, so perhaps things are loosening up a bit and we can get the additional information.

Convincing me there was a shooter on the tall building is a hard sell. I can’t see it when there are better concealment options.

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I’m not sure why I think this, but this looks like a WTF moment to me from Crooks. I get the impression he was dumbfounded that someone shot at him. Maybe he’s just dazed from the bullet but it seems like such an odd reaction.

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Yup, laymans semantics not meant for scientific specificity. Obviously the MLOK ATLAS rail and handguard would be the thing to rest on the ridgecap, considering only maybe a couple inches of the end of the barrel are protruding.

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Stick around, you’re doing great things and work here!

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Wind can play a huge impact. At reported 10 knots, that’s a 4" drift. Gusting winds can be difficult to track without spotter. The wind at the muzzle will have a bigger impact than winds at POI.

Was it Mike Tyson that first said, “Everyone has a plan until he gets punched in the face.” A different spin on the old military concept that “Plans change because the enemy gets a vote.”

Whether Crooks was on a suicide mission, to die on the rooftop or in an IED car, or thought he’d escape, being shot at likely caused a reality check and he had somewhere else to be …

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Several commenters have recently expressed their doubt regarding the height of the Speedy Bleachers that was struck by the same bullet that grazed President Trump’s ear. I’m the guy that provided the initial drawing of the bleachers after discovering the brand name in one of the shooting videos seen in the news. The drawing that I found on-line and posted, did not include a dimension for vertical height, rather only a total dimension front to rear of 231" or 19’ 3". I downloaded the drawing and using a CAD program, “traced” the original .jpg copy, splitting pixels, making it as accurate as possible. Believe me, I’m detail oriented … enough so that I’ve been accused of being the President of the National Nitpicker’s Association. The actual height dimension that came out of that drawing was 11’ 1 27/64" but I thought 11’ 1 1/2" was close enough … and I knew that everybody in the forum would think I was cra-cra if I got down to 64ths. Obviously, overall height is affected by leveling, loading, tire pressure, etc. Anyway, I’ll stick with 11’ 1 1/2" until I get an opportunity to measure one myself.

Also, I noted that the drawing from Speedy Bleachers shows that the top rail across the back is a 3" tall, 1 1/2" wide, 3/16" wall steel rectangular tube that I’m certain is galvanized. Recently, a newcomer to the conversation, KHunter, theorized that the bleacher is 11’ tall and that the bullet struck 4" below that height. If that were correct, it probably wouldn’t have hit anything as it would have missed that top rail. Possible to hit one of the 5/8" vertical balusters, but not likely. Unfortunately, the patriotic bunting was draped across the back of the bleachers, obscuring our view of where the bullet actually struck. BTW, I still think that the cloud is the galvanizing on the back side of the top rail being vaporized.

Note to daniloraf, see KHunter’s post to see why you are mistaken regarding the Speedy Bleachers being 12’ 2" in height.

Cloud

We’ll have to agree to disagree. It was only a 140-yard shot. A pro would’ve made that calculation instantly. I can “almost” make that shot with a bow in those conditions.

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FBI Butler Updates

Amongst other things of note:

Rifle Analysis

Additionally, regarding the subject’s rifle, the FBI Laboratory Division successfully test fired the weapon, concluding it was—and remains—fully operational.

They also positively matched all eight shell casings located on the roof with the subject’s rifle.

So, according to the FBI, you are correct in assuming it did not in fact damage the buffer tube nor impact the actual operation of the rifle in any way.

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Hello Schroederized

I was looking at a different website for the specification of the bleachers in question. I do think that we are both looking at the same bleachers. It is just that the specific information sheet on the website that you link to gave the critical value of the height at 11’2".

The website I was looking at was as follows:

It gave a height 12’2". That however, is to the top of the posts at the back.

I too was looking at the side on specification diagram for the bleachers (that does not show the posts) - that being the technical drawing in question. I extrapolated from the 28 inches for the full vertical component. I too was counting pixels. This gave me practically 11 feet exact to the top of the railing. However, if the much larger distance for the 231 inches is used, and again one counts pixels, I get 11.134 ft… This is exceptionally close to 11.166666 feet, which is exactly 11’2".

You have convinced me that the correct answer is 11’2" from the ground up to the back of the railings. This image details both values in question:

I still do think though that the best way to determine the bullet impact is to evaluate the disintegration cloud in the first frame. I looked at the height, and then at the lowest part of the dust cloud, as best as I could determine them. I get 4 inches down from the top of the railing.

In this case then, it is 4 inches down from 11’2", which gives 10’10" or 10.8333333 feet.