So It's Back To First Principles

[bigtim]

@howdoiknowthisinfo

you seem to assume that a bullet travels in a straight line trajectory, which is not the case.
the straight line of sight is the lower boundary of the bullet’s trajectory and the range at which the weapon has been zeroed determines approximately where the bullet drops below this line of sight…

Thank you for reminding people, as I have tried to do.

THIS is something folks are missing with trajectories when drawing a laser-like straight line from point of shooter to point of impact. Bullets do not work that way.

With a 5.56mm (and most others) there will be a variance between the optic and the barrel, generally a couple inches, that must be accounted for when “zeroing” a rifle at different ranges. There will also be a slight bullet “arc” or a slight rise and then a dip which continues until it strikes something. This is “elevation.” There can and generally is ALSO be a lateral “windage” or side-to-side movement based on wind. For extremely long shots, professionals even factor the rotation of the earth in their calculations! The key takeaway is bullets are not lasers. The drift up and down, side to side as well.

For those that don’t know this, all other variables equal, an unimpeded bullet fired exactly parallel to the earth, will fall and land on the ground at the exact rate as a dropped bullet at the same time from the same height. IOW they will land on the ground at the same time. So remember that when trying to determine trajectory. Gravity is always at play.

In this case, we don’t know at what bullet type and weight nor do we know range the rifle(s) were zeroed, or where their points of aim were. The bullet that struck Trump, might have been aimed for his chest or throat and been a bad zero, or a bad aim, etc. We just don’t know. Further, there was a eastern wind of 5 to 7 mph.

ShootersCalculator.com

In input some best guesses and other data and came up with, if using 55 grain .223 and a zero of 100 yards, with known elevation (415 meters), wind speed 7mph, temps, and other data or best guesses as estimates:

At 150 yards, the bullet drops 1 inch and drifts 2.2 inches.
At 300 yards, the bullet drops 13.6 inches and drifts 3.1 inches. In this case, from west to east.

So, Crooks would need to adjust his zero or accommodate for range: 25 yards, 100 yards, 150 yards (hence the range finder may have aided him in adjusting zero). Same with the potential shooter on the N. rooftop. There are adjustments on the rifle or optic to allow a shooter to adjust to known distances. But we know and can calculate within reason how much drift and drop those bullets experienced.

[howdoiknowthisinfo (howdoiknowthisinfo.com)]

@bigtim

For those that don’t know

yes, what i find very striking is that several of the most active critics and deniers of what we say on this forum have no shooting experience at all (for example roger and brian confirm this in their own posts).

how is it possible that the project leader of a project for trajectory and ballistics analysis does not even have the most basic knowledge of ballistics, rejects very viable options based on prejudice, bias and cognitive dissonance and makes such bold statements without any references or relevant qualifications?

the answer is, from my point of view, very simple: the attack on Trump has been carefully orchestrated and made possible by undermining the skills and expertise of the people he should be able to trust blindly.

well, here we see the same thing: Chris is a trustworthy person and has a very solid core team supporting him, but the second layer of his people is infiltrated by purely incompetent bullies with no good intentions!

and when i point this out, i am the one who is labeled arrogant…

so be it

[pk2019]

You know, geography is destiny. I suggest to tone down the discurs a bit. Not everyone has the same interests or knowledge base. roger-knight is certainly not a project leader here, but has constructed his own model. There were others, like schroederized and, I believe, sloggo2u who build their own models, like you. When an adminstrator crudely closed the geometry thread, opened another one and soon closed that new thread again, I heard nothing more form schroederized at least. sloggo2u had a very interesting LIDAR dataset and then said, that the google earth elevation data are partly wrong (or very imprecise), for example at the south-eastern edge of building 6. Whoever had invested much time, effort and due diligance does certainly not want hear he wasn’t an expert or even be labeled as an “denier”, with well known connotations. That said, at least I do not know which one of the two contradicting hypotheses is correct. And there are more than just these two.

[howdoiknowthisinfo (howdoiknowthisinfo.com)]

hello pk2019,

as you must have noticed by now, I am not the one who charges or bullies.

the sword cuts on both sides.

my model does not use the ground levels as reference as these vary so much, but the top of the various buildings, as these are mostly (or at least more) even and “more” horizontal than the ground levels.

the very uneven ground surface is what does roger-knight’s system/model in, and he does not want to hear that…
these are just observations.

I go for transparency and openness, which is why I have provided my kml snapshot to everybody who wants to have a look at.
if they do, that is fine, if they do not, that is a pity and lost opportunity for them…
as far as I am concerned, I am not married to any of these systems and will update whatever is necessary as soon as there is corroborated evidence to support the change.
so far, this is what makes most sense based on the many things I have analyzed so far…

I use google earth pro and the coordinates/height/elevation of the walls and roof of agr building 6 have changed indeed, but that is not problematic for my model

thanks for your feedback!

[bigtim]

@howdoiknowthisinfo

I have been asking for the speed of sound that was used for the sound analysis

I have seen 1150 fps number thrown around as a good estimate. Wikipedia says 1125 fps or 343 m/s.

[vegaspatriot]

This post has one of the more detailed SoS calculations I’ve seen here.

Audio Analysis Is Most Consistent Two Shooters At Trump Rally

THERE WAS A 2nd SHOOTER Based on the timing of the “sonic boom” and report of 1st shot at Trump’s mic — time difference 0.22 secs — the muzzle of the gun had to be 417’ ± a few feet from Trump. That does NOT get you to where Crooks was. It gets you EXACTLY to the front edge of that building. Given that the 1st floor windows were too low to shoot line of sight to Trump, and those windows seem to have been “cleared” by law enforcement — the DJ video shows that — I think 2nd shooter was in the ce…

[howdoiknowthisinfo (howdoiknowthisinfo.com)]

thanks!

I will use 349.58209950074297 m/s (1146.9228986244848 fps).

“they” reject the hypothesis of the real shooter on the higher roof because “the sound analysis does not match the distances”, but they do not use the value of the speed of sound that matches the atmospheric conditions (mainly temperature) for that specific day.

so in my model I will use the value that should be used (this value is close to the values ​​you just gave)…
we will see if that makes a difference, huh…

another example of bias and prejudice as to why they reject that shooter location without careful evaluation…

[howdoiknowthisinfo (howdoiknowthisinfo.com)]

thanks!

I will check these values using parameters for sniper rifle bullets and sniper muzzle velocities…
it is very unlikely that they have been using this type of ammunition and rifles in their analysis…

[pk2019]

Hi Howdy,

I could understand the reservation of roger-knight and others since previously the information on your web site was so sparse that at least I could not really retrace your method (apart from the “similar angle” argument). But now you say:

@howdoiknowthisinfo

my model does not use the ground levels as reference as these vary so much, but the top of the various buildings, as these are mostly (or at least more) even and “more” horizontal than the ground levels.

This wasn’t clear to me at all, and possibly also not to your at times square-jawed contrahents. It’s a really nice idea. But then how to marry (or at least befriend) your model with that one of roger-knight and others?
I sometimes wonder that to my knowledge no american geodesist packed his instruments and simply determined rise and talf in situ.

[howdoiknowthisinfo (howdoiknowthisinfo.com)]

@pk2019

This wasn’t clear to me at all, and possibly also not to your at times square-jawed contrahents. It’s a really nice idea. But then how to marry (or at least befriend) your model with that one of roger-knight and others?

I mentioned earlier that the model of roger is crippled beyond repair… I based this statement based on

• his back tracing approach that he illustrated 2-3 times based on the input that I gave him and
• the fact that he always tries to back trace things to the location of the roof where the man died and
• the fact that he constantly focuses on the height of different objects while ignoring the different ground levels and
• the fact that he was not even aware of the simple fact that the JCB hydraulic lift stood in a depression, and thus lower than the right bleacher and
• the fact that he was not even aware that the ground floor of Trump’s podium was several feet higher than the ground floor of the corner of the bleacher

every time he input the very accurate data that I provided to him, he came back with a horizontal line and the claim that the back tracing had led to a shooter position that had to shoot through (!) several buildings…

his system is really completely inappropriate for this analysis…

@pk2019

I sometimes wonder that to my knowledge no american geodesist packed his instruments and simply determined rise and talf in situ.

the fast buriers of information sent their geodesists to the site the day after the event, he…
probably to document which evidence scenes have been wiped “clean”…

[roger-knight]

Hi howdoiknowthisinfo and BigTim,

As I stated in my previous Post, I am not a riffle guy and I have already reached out to the community for help on this topic:

@roger-knight

If anybody could calculate how many Inches, I would gladly integrate it into our simulation.

Maybe you guys can help? The length of the shot in 3D (from the wall of building 6 to the bleachers corner) is 503feet. How many inches does the bullet sink due to gravity and how many inches does the bullet move to the side due to the wind?

If you could give me these two numbers, I will integrate it into the “back trace” simulation.

Thanks in advance.

[pk2019]

I remember that you wrote about wrong elevations previously, but I must have missed the rationale. If you derive these facts ultimately from roof heights, isn’t that equivalent to a petitio ad principii?

• the fact that he was not even aware of the simple fact that the JCB hydraulic lift stood in a depression, and thus lower than the right bleacher and
• the fact that he was not even aware that the ground floor of Trump’s podium was several feet higher than the ground floor of the corner of the bleacher

[intolerance]

Shooter intentionally hit Trump’s ear?

this guy goes over certain specifics like wind speed, what it takes to hit a target with a red dot AR, etc. you can see around 12:30 that the shots land on target even with wind.

so for us to give you accurate numbers, I think we’d have to at least know the bullet trajectories. like the one bullet the struck the railing or hit the firefighter, is anyone able to somewhat accurately trace back the bullets back to the rooftop? we could start there and maybe see if wind that day was affecting Crooks’ shots in any significant way.

my current theory is no, the fault lies more in his choice of cheap ass AR-15 and a basic red dot sight

here is a quick explanation why Crooks’ shots missed so badly https://youtu.be/Q-jCdR249Vw?si=DSDd59W_b31d797e&t=430

[roger-knight]

Hi again howdoiknowthisinfo,

I would like to reply to your comments below:

@howdoiknowthisinfo

I mentioned earlier that the model of roger is crippled beyond repair… I based this statement based on

• his back tracing approach that he illustrated 2-3 times based on the input that I gave him and

• the fact that he always tries to back trace things to the location of the roof where the man died and

• the fact that he constantly focuses on the height of different objects while ignoring the different ground levels and

• the fact that he was not even aware of the simple fact that the JCB hydraulic lift stood in a depression, and thus lower than the right bleacher and

• the fact that he was not even aware that the ground floor of Trump’s podium was several feet higher than the ground floor of the corner of the bleacher

every time he input the very accurate data that I provided to him, he came back with a horizontal line and the claim that the back tracing had led to a shooter position that had to shoot through (!) several buildings…

his back tracing approach that he illustrated 2-3 times based on the input that I gave him

Sorry I don’t understand what you are trying to say. Please be more specific.

the fact that he always tries to back trace things to the location of the roof where the man died:

We are not trying to back trace to the man who died. What we are trying to do is to evaluate if the official story that is claimed in all mainstream media that crooks shot all 8 shots, or are two shooters involved? Since we are very lucky that the first shot hit Trumps ear and then the corner of the blister, we get 2 points defined in space, which makes it possible to back-trace the shot from where it originated. If the back traced shot would lead back to Crooks (or you call him the “man who died” ) it would give us the impression that maybe all shots could have been shot by Crooks. However if the back traced bullet leads to somewhere else it would mean that there is a second shooter. According to our calculations the back traced bullet leads to building 6 and not to Crooks on the roof. So the hypothesis of 2 shooters become more favourable.

the fact that he constantly focuses on the height of different objects while ignoring the different ground levels and

I would claim that we put the most efforts in this forum concerning ground levels. Maybe you have not seen our posts yet:

@roger-knight

Our team at “Site Reconstruction of the Assassination Attempt” here on Peak Prosperity has discussed this topic many times. We claim the building is at 1335 feet height.

The latest ground levels which we are using are: AGR building 1335 feet, Trumps position 1337 and the bleacher wheels at 1336. I addid this informatoin to the Excel sheet below, so that it is clear for everybody

the fact that he was not even aware of the simple fact that the JCB hydraulic lift stood in a depression, and thus lower than the right bleacher:

I am using the first point: Trumps ear second point: corner of bleacher, these are the only two points of interest to backtrace a bullet. The hydraulic lift is totally irrelevant for this calculation

the fact that he was not even aware that the ground floor of Trump’s podium was several feet higher than the ground floor of the corner of the bleacher:

As mentioned above, we take under consideration that Trump is 1 foot higher than the corner of the bleachers. See explanation above.

[phecksel (PhilH)]

@roger-knight

How many inches does the bullet sink due to gravity and how many inches does the bullet move to the side due to the wind?

Sites-VistaFederal-Site

[roger-knight]

Hi intolerance,

Thank you for your feedback.

Here is the bullet trajectorie:

[roger-knight]

Hi Bigtim,

Thanks for your feedback. I appreciate your detailed explainatoin.

@bigtim

a type of infra-red night vision type optic

When would you use such an infra-red night vision optic? Maybe when you are sitting in a dark room, so that you can see things?

[intolerance]

if he jerked the gun or the trigger and the barrel pointed at the railing as the hammer struck the primer, then that looks like a pretty good hit. so what I mean by that is, it doesn’t seem like wind had much effect or that there was any significant bullet drop at that distance.

if wind was affecting the shots then for him to touch Trump’s ear with a bullet, he would’ve had to have been aiming slightly to the right of his target. if the bullet drop was really bad, then for the bullet to touch Trump’s ear he would’ve have to have been aiming the dot way above Trump’s head.

i think it’s safe to assume that where Crooks aimed, the bullets went in a pretty “straight” path to their target.

[roger-knight]

Hi PhilH,

Great site and I appreciate your efforts.

But since I am not a riffle guy, I am not able to fill out the fields correctly. Could you fill it out? If something is unknown, you can take your best guess such as riffle type or type of bullets… a very rough estimate is sufficient for the moment

[bigtim]

Lowlight and night time exterior and interior situations, such as patrols, raids, room clearing, underground tunnels, driving without lights, flying in aircraft at night without lights, etc. where one wants to keep normal lights off and move in the cover of darkness as an advantage, or searching in the dark (such as done by helicopters, drones, etc.) where lights are unwanted or impractical.