So It's Back To First Principles

Agreed. It’s very, very weird. At 18:02 Nicol radios Crooks is between buildings, has a backpack and went towards Sheetz (Nicol had to be facing south here). Then at 18:04 he abandons a place with vantage points overlooking north, west, south and east, a place that has been the only place capable of providing directions so far, to go downstairs to warn people and then actually doesn’t warn them? What happened, he got lost on the way? He was at another door elsewhere? What were the other local snipers doing, knitting?

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More notes regarding the “interim report”.

On page 77, they refer to Woods like “An AGR Sniper from Beaver County who had been positioned inside the AGR building …”

On page 53 is one of the few indications that the committee has any idea Murcko was in the building:

Radio logs obtained by the Committee show that the local snipers positioned in the AGR building did not receive any notification on their ESU radio channel about an individual on the roof before Crooks fired, and the Beaver County sniper that was posted in the AGR building told the Committee that neither he nor his partner in the AGR building were aware of anyone on the roof before shots were fired.

They refer to Nicol as “AGR Sniper 1” several times, but never make any reference to “AGR Sniper 2”. Just like in the press, Murcko is a magical ghost who can never be talked about.

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Updated: 9:31 PM EDT Jul 16, 2024

Prior to Crooks firing, …Inside that building below, sources say, were members of the Beaver and Butler counties’ emergency services units and SWAT teams, who, sources tell Pittsburgh’s Action News 4, were told not to be on that roof, where Crooks ultimately took position and fired before being shot by the Secret Service.
…were told not to be on that roof …by USSS I recall

The Pennsylvania State Police replied:

PSP provided all resources that the United States Secret Service (USSS) requested for former President Trump’s rally in Butler on Saturday, July 13th, including approximately 30 to 40 troopers to assist with securing the inside perimeter. Among PSP’s duties at the rally, the Department was not responsible for securing the building or property at AGR International.
So what were camo shorts & bearded PSP officers doing at AGR complex?

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You’re talking about Door 9 on the east side of AGR 6. The activities that occurred after Nicol’s 6:02 pm radio message, where he went downstairs to try to find Crooks, and met two LEO officers, took place outside of Door 13, on the northwest corner of the building, facing northward.

Those who deny that those activities happened deny all of the evidence describing it. The confusion between it and the Door 9 activities stems from a n erroneous entry in the AAR, which is a document full of inaccuracies, especially in the timeline maps.

Denying that Door 13 activities did not occur because you don’t believe the witness testimony because there is no video of it happening, is like denying the audio of shots fired because there is no video of the bullets traveling through the air. In an investigation, you cannot arbitrarily choose which evidence to ignore, it needs to be proven not to be authentic, invalid, or inaccurate before it is dismissed or treated accordingly.

But what do I know, I’m just a Certified Professional who has investigated various incidents for the past 30 years of my career, delivered trainings and a seminar on the topic, and published a few related magazine articles. How silly of me to even think about taking the evidence at face value. But I digress.

You might find some interested reading on the matter here.

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I really don’t understand why this has been such a bone of contention. If Nicol said that he went downstairs to take delivery of a sandwich he ordered, I would be asking what kind, and from what shop, and whether that shop sells sandwiches, and if they do, whether they sell that kind of sandwich on that day, and what company delivered it, etc – just like a homicide detective in the interview room.

I don’t care about the sandwich, I just want to know if he’s telling the truth. So if Nicol says he met some officers downstairs, who were they? Are there any law enforcement people involved in this whole thing who will testify that they met with Nicol around that time? I doubt it. That’s why I harp on this issue.

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Prove it. I’ll wait.

I’ve already provided significant evidence that it did, along with a well-reasoned, logic and evidence-based analysis, which I can now add corroborating PSP witness testimony to that analysis, so I’ve made my case.

If that’s upsetting you, let me rephrase: I totally believe Nicol 100%, and I just want to flesh out the details of what door he exited, and who he talked to, and I fully expect that we will find two local PD guys who say they met with Nicol and everything is as he said. But then, if there’s some unexpected problem finding those guys, that would indicate a big problem.

Edit: I originally wrote Murcko here when I meant Nicol because my brain is utterly fried.

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I’m going off his commands (Beaver) report. It states he went downstairs of building 1. That’s not the northwest corner of the building. Where do I find the document that states he went out the other door?

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I wasn’t criticizing you in the least - only trying to summarize a small point about what we do or do not know.

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Wait… is there a source/witness for door 13 or is the slide conjecture? I don’t remember which evidence supports door 13.

Btw… doesn’t the burden of proof rests with the person making the claim, not the one denying it? Asking us to prove he wasn’t at Door 13 with the resources we have is asking us to prove a negative of sorts.

I didn’t take it as criticism at at all. I was just trying to explain the tool and what thought process went into selecting who is on it, and didn’t want anyone thinking it’s meant to be all inclusive, that’s all. Sorry if I came across any other way.

That’s not evidence at all. It’s conjecture.

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So you read that all and didn’t see any evidence referenced in that analysis? Or are you just dismissing it offhand?

Edit: I quickly perused my analysis and counted 23 times that the evidence was quoted, which makes sense, because the whole thing was an analysis of a key piece of evidence everyone has been using, and many are getting confused by.

The problem for me is that the Interim Report that Brian60221 quoted says that Nicol went down to meet “the law enforcement officers responding to the suspicious person,” followed by "one marked vehicle and one unmarked vehicle pull[ed] in together. But then it says, “PSP testimony later confirmed that a Butler PD car and PSP car came into the parking lot on the east side of AGR …”

The east side is where Door 9 is and where most of the LEO gathered, but where Nichol did not appear until much later (as per dashcam). So this is really not any confirmation of whatever might have happened earlier at Door 13.

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It’s not a problem for me at all. In fact, it may even lend credence to one of the speculations I made in my analysis. But if you read it, you might already know that. Did you read it? I find that most people who dismiss it haven’t even read it. I will gladly debate my analysis point by point, but I will not debate it if it hasn’t even been read.

Upset? Do you have any evidence that I’m upset? Or do you just know that I’m upset because you think and feel that I am upset. What if I told you I wasn’t upset? What if I told you I don’t even get upset when my work is blatantly and publicly being mocked in this forum?

Defending sound incident investigation and analysis methodologies, with vigor, is not being upset. Quite the contrary, it shows concern for those who might be lead astray by faulty logic and assumptions.

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The problem for me is not with your work, i.e., the deduction of how Nicol might actually have been at Door 13 on the NW side of aGR, etc. even though there is as yet no video confirmation of this. My problem is with the language of the Interim Report, which suggests that Nicol’s story is confirmed by some PSP testimony that only mentions the east side of AGR.

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Not discarding it at all. I read it and understood it, but I still wouldn’t call it evidence, I would call it conjecture. A good one, granted. I wasn’t aware there was a debate going around which door was used, and to be fair, it does make sense, but without evidence, technically it’s conjecture. Evidence would be electronic door logs that would support the conjecture, I believe. That said, media report alone does suggest a case for that door 13 (then again, the same media which reported a Sonata…).

I’ll even chip in… The whole door 13 hypothesis from the slides does make sense, and I propose the officers Nicol talked to were actually the undercover ones (one of which, cammo shorts, who I believe to be Nate Michael), since afterall the undercover ones were immediately to the west of northern most AGR building just before the shooting (Piper Grimley full-res.

Door 13 could even explain that possible flashlight inside AGR… after Nicol finished talking to the undercover officers, he began his return to his post only to hear loud noise from metal bangs coming from the east side, from the roof, unidentified direction of sound… he turns off the lights, gets his flashlight, looks around and hears gunfire. His reaction is then… to wait a little and then go outside through door 9.

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Looks like a good ID…
So who’s the bad ass camo shooter emerging from Building 6 at 19:00?
Was he associated with camo shorts & mr black beard PSP dudes?