(Unfortunately I cannot find that scene when Lt. Columbo asks the witnesses and all answers are different: https://youtu.be/e3JO9geIV-E?t=357)
What I referred to was the cognitive dissonance, and that is stronger than the polygraph.
I think we don’t need to eat the entire pot of soup to figure out it is fish soup. We already know a lot about the blind mice running back and fort at the east side parking lot. But the key questions are at the western side. And don’t forget, there might be experienced detectives among the alleged conspirators.
Greg should show on a picture, exactly which door he went out. There are at least 21 doors.
Since we don’t have time-synched audio sources, it is necessary to assume the location for one of the 10 shots and call that “ground truth”. Once that is established, then the locations of the other 9 shots are computed. Therefore, if I move the location of shot 1 to a different location, all of the other results change too. Taking a specific example, if I move shot 1 to the wall vent, the mathematical solution for shot 10 changes to an implausible state, as shown in the YouTube video.
Should I point out the reference to the McNamara Fallacy and Confirmation Bias, explained starting at the 2:12 mark in this related video?
“Speculators” are free to ignore the physchological factors involved, whereas “Investigators” must check their biases at the door to properly and accurately complete an investigation. “Confirmation Bias” is one, but so is 'Belief Persistence."
We also need to consider the difference between statements made while the event is in progress, which I presented, and statements made after the event during witness interviews. They are two different categories of evidence.
That’s because the evidence shows the two patrolmen pulled into the East lot. You might be assuming that it was the West lot, which is a fair assumption given the way the account was described. That is what I assumed initially, until I looked closer at the AAR Timeline Maps. The evidence that it was the East lot I provide in this post.
yes, I am very familiar with logical fallacies and cognitive dissonance.
that sword cuts at both sides… both for you and me and the other people active on this forum.
I am open to every possibility, provided there is corroborated evidence showing one way or the other.
I am not married to any hypothesis and do not dig my heels in the dirt to defend a debatable position at all cost. if you check what I have posted the past few weeks, you should know that by now.
I try to stick to the evidence based facts as close as possible
currently, I am undecided about a couple of points, and I have updated my view on other points, all based on and by reviewing evidence…
if it turns out that crooks was the single shooter and that the 10th bullet was fired by the southern barn sniper, that is fine by me, but so far, I have not seen enough matching puzzle pieces to come to that conclusion…
well, I am not a fan of the term “2nd” shooter, as from my point of view, the first 3 shots were not fired by crooks.
if crooks fired any shots, that would have been the 5 rapid-fire rounds, making crooks the 2nd shooter…
where people assume I “ignore the evidence” because I do not believe that “the evidence” “clearly” points to the northern barn sniper as the shooter of the 10th shot, it is not that simple…
I am undecided, just like @vegaspatriot is very careful before he promotes somebody’s identification status and removes the “unconfirmed” or similar label…
and whether it would be more satisfactory to people or not remains to be seen…
Generally I go along, Door 13 would be the closest and most logical one. But since we don’t know the floor plan (1+2) of building 2 yet we can’t say where the stair is exactly placed. If the stairs end up 1st floor on the very east of building 2, there would not be that much of a distance difference compared to Door 14.
As a mind game I keep this as a 2nd Option in my side pocket.
In my analysis I present the possibility that the 18:05-18:12 timeline entry (corrected to 18:03-18:12 since the 18:05 assumed time entry was 3 minutes off) could have been the report author confusing the Door 13 event, which occurred around 18:03, and the Door 9 event, which occurred at 18:13. Both of which involved 1 marked and 1 unmarked police vehicle. It is clear to me that the final draft of that report was not reviewed for accuracy by everyone involved before submitting it to Sen. Grassley.
As we all go after the evidence, here I’ve aligned a video that I became aware of thanks to @vegaspatriot Research Tool.
At 18:10:11-18:10:16 his hand movement indicates he receives something over the radio (most likely the message from Hercules 2). After this they pick up their rifles that were still pointing south up to this point.
Unfortunately we can’t see Hercules 1 when shot 9+10 was fired, but it is evidence that Hercules 1 (at least the one guy closer to Trump - D. King) was already looking north (18:08:58) when Tyler Collins hasn’t arrived where he finally parked his car (M500-010482 - car parked at 18:09:03). This contradicts the statement made in the USSS-HSGAC-Interim-Report.
“According to the USSS Counter Sniper Team Leader, as soon as he and his partner (both at the Hercules 1 post) heard this radio transmission [+], they repositioned themselves to face the AGR building.”
[+] from Hercules 2 “And from those two vehicles I saw one individual emerge from the tree line, identified him as a police officer, and I couldn’t tell why he was moving urgently, but I went over the radio with the following transmission: “Security Room from Hercules, locals are working something at the three o’clock, approximately 200 yards out.””
This again is disappointing since you promised to us that there was no way that you would fail
…again it’s getting old and your credibility is being shredded daily
If it is true Crooks (assuming it was him that was on the AGR6 roof) didn’t take the first 3 shots, how do you explain the casing that was ejected by his rifle at the exact moment shot 1 rang out?
this is really great footage!
this proves that the southern snipers were surprised by the first shots and if the 10th bullet came from them, that means that they were able to adjust their scope and align their rifle(s) to crooks in less than 15 seconds…
that would not be bad at all as far as response time is concerned!
the same goes for the response time of the SWAT officer who took aim and fired the 9th bullet in less than 5 seconds after the first shot was fired…
so, “repositioned” is simply moving their setup from looking south to looking at the AGR site…
some people call this repositioning “abandoning their post” as they were tasked to screen the southern area of the territory, I would call it using common sense…
and indeed, as I mentioned earlier, these reports are not reflecting the facts, but simply show the outcome of consensus meetings to make sure they can control possible damage caused by releasing these reports…
