So It's Back To First Principles

Here is a Spotify list of Trump Rally song that might help.

Donald J. Trump For President Rally Songs - playlist by Cody Porter | Spotify

2 Likes

Having stood there and eyeballed it, I know the vents will clear. The top of the windows are close but I can’t say one way or the other.

3 Likes

As I had already said, I don’t take all of what Rowe said at face value, and thus do not share all of what he himself considers fact. Nonetheless you insist to sneek in your favorite hobby horse.

You know what? I found the reply of @aaronmckeon of what probably was the result of someone flagging your posts rather lame. Nothing could have hindered him to open a public thread in parallel. The sad result is that we now have to live with clutter in the first principles thread and in the audio thread as well, because many avoided to be seen even near such an idea. And Aaron could even just have invited both of you, as advocati diaboli against common sense arguments to their $ 1700 premium member thread instead.

2 Likes

it all depends on the distance at which the rifle was zeroed…

image

this is what the trajectory of a 55 grain bullet from an AR-15 style rifle would look like at the atmospheric values and wind conditions where the rifle is zeroed at 100 yards.

that means that when the shooter looks through his scope and aims at the center of the cross hairs, he will hit that target if the target is at 100 yards in laboratory conditions.

laboratory conditions means that the exact input parameters should be met.

in reality, there are always deviations from the ideal conditions: wind is not exact and blows in more than only horizontal directions, the bullet is fired by a person who breathes, has a heart beat, may be nervous, etc, which are all conditions that influence how the bullet flies to its target…

if the target is closer than 100 yards, the target will be hit higher than what he saw in his scope, and if the target is further than 100 yards, the target will be hit lower than what he saw in his scope.

in the column “trajectory (in)” you see the bullet drop distance in inches.

so, if the rifle Gary was referring to was zeroed at 100 yards, I would doubt that the bullet would still be rising, unless the shooter was aiming seriously above target…

Man on the roof with a gun that he supposedly pointed at him…and this officer spends seconds immediately before shots ring out: looking at the 3rd window area instead of the roofline…after telling everyone by the fence further down to “get out of the way”. Things that make you go hmmmmmm.

1 Like

I did not include this JCB hydraulic lift and red tractor in my model, but it looks like the JCB hydraulic lift and/or the red tractor next to it (both next to the left bleachers) may have hindered the line of sight from that location…

It doesn’t. Trump is higher than that on the stage.

And the people in the set of bleachers behind and to the west of Trump have line of sight back to the 3rd window.

1 Like

that line of sight looks quite obstructed to me…
it looks to me that the JCB hydraulic lift that held up the speakers is visible through the JCB cabine’s greenish glass, which means that Trump would not be visible from this camera position…

So based on all of this, is it going to be very unlikely that we can track the sniper location and first and/or second location from which the bullet(s) were fired even if we can get the height of the bleachers and the height of that railing down to an exact inch?

It doesn’t block it. I already told you: people in the set of bleachers furthest west had LOS to the 3rd window. In fact, if anything, those pieces “frame” the shot, literally.

So without knowing how the rifle was zeroed, is it possible that nothing he does will be definitive as to where the shooter was?

1 Like

yes, it is not realistic to assume that you can back trace the location of the shooter based on an approximate height of Trump, the approximation of the offset of the top of his ear to his total length and the exact interaction point of the railing of the right bleacher (furthest away from the shooter). these are all guestimated values… and also note that the director of this back tracing model has many times confirmed he has no idea what a rifle looks like (free rephrasing, but you get the point :wink: )…

a much more sensible approach is the one I am working on, namely, if you take a possible shooting position, and you plot the ballistic trajectory from that point to any of the victims (dead or alive, human or hardware). if these trajectories match for a certain number of bullets/victims then that is a location that must be further inspected…

the height of the bleachers and the railing is known with good confidence levels, but the location of the bleachers is not, and the point where there was an interaction between bullet 1 and the railing is not known either… not even a fair approximation…

two weeks ago, that point was believed to be the exact corner of these bleachers. by now, that point has shifted already about 3-4 ft towards the middle of the bleachers.

bottom line: there is no certainty whatsoever about the input parameters of the infamous back tracing system…

1 Like

that is very true…

we do not know anything for sure:

  • there was a rifle photographed on the roof
  • it is claimed that the 9th bullet damaged the rifle such that it could no longer fire as a semi-automatic, and that the shrapnel of that rifle has injured crooks on the roof
  • the pictures of that rifle do not show any damage, and it was never reported that the rifle was damaged before the bodycam video became available showing the 9th shot. only since that video has become available, the rifle damage has been inserted in the official narrative
  • we know that crooks’ father purchased in 2013 a DPMS A-15, and it may be that crooks used that gun, but that gun is a semi-automatic
  • the 5 shots that were fired after the first 3 were shot in rapid fire. this may mean that:
  1. the rifle was modified such that it could shoot in full auto. if you listen to the audio/video, you hear that there was a pause of 1 second after the 5th shot. then came the 9th shot from the SWAT officer that either injured crooks, or shot and damaged his rifle, which then injured crooks. so, if the gun was in full auto, it would have stopped after 5 bullets, e.g., because there were only 5 bullets in the clip/magazine
  2. crooks used a fast-fire technique based on what can be called “a jitter finger”. this is something that is used by gamers to hammer a keyboard key or the mouse. such a technique is also applicable to firing a gun, but it requires expertise and training…
  • we do not know the bullet type (weight and caliber) and how much powder was used in the cartridge
  • we do not know the distance at which the rifle was zeroed
  • we also do not know the exact wind speed at the time the shots were fired

so, all these things are unknowns :slight_smile:
and there are more, but these give a good introduction to the unknowns and these all play a role in back tracing where the shooter may have shot from…

Did not see this version of the video. That sounds like Elvis Presley. I did not think they would play him on a trump rally, lets see if I can’t find this video and song title.

@vegaspatriot

Gotcha - Found the Elvis song. Elvis Presley – If I Can Dream - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-pP_dCenJA

The video on the RSBN was exactly when this video of elvis ended. So I got a timeline from RSBN. Synchronised with the WTAE clip… and we have timestamp. The WTAE Clip that KINCSES Zsolt has linked starts at 17:06:49. You first spot Crooks at the left corner at 17:06:57.

Approximates
RSBN – Shots fired: 06:42:54 Actual time: 18:11:33
RSBN – Elvis stops: 05:40:02 Actual time: 17:08:41
RSBN – WTAE starts: 05:38:10 Actual time: 17:06:49

WTEA with Sound - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UojlcfpSFZs&t=4s

Thanks alot! @kincses-zsolt

Edit: Sometimes I am daft. Thought in PM. Its 17:06:49 not 15:06:49

3 Likes

Great. That’s how I use RSBN to back calculate times. You have a time warp at 15:06:49, by the way. :wink: I have those myself from time to time, pun intended.

I would think that where the bullet goes, relative to where you sighted it, would depend on how you zero’d the sights.

But I would think that possible bullet trajectories depend only on muzzle velocity, angle of barrel at time of firing, and various atmospheric and gravity conditions once fired.

In other words, changing how, or even how well, you sight a rifle only changes how you aim the rifle, not how the bullet is physically capable of flying, once it leaves the barrel.

1 Like

I like your summary of observations👍

1 Like

You insult the Keystone Cops … at least they were funny, not treason and felon coverupers.