The Coronavirus Is A Nightmare For The Global Economy

As China has now placed hundreds of millions of its citizens under quarantine, its economy is grinding to a halt.

Workers can’t leave their homes. Factories are idle. Most (if not all) of China’s ports are no longer shipping. International flights are increasingly banned from the country.

When the world's #2 economy hangs up a big "CLOSED" sign, that's going to result in a major negative impact on global trade.

As the manufacturing powerhouse to the world, you'll be challenged to think of ANY industry that won't experience serious supply chain interruptions and shortages from China's woes. For instance, did you know China makes the vast majority of our prescription pharmaceuticals?

A MASSIVE hit to the global economy will directly result from the damage the Wuhan coronavirus is currently doing. And it may get worse, a lot worse.

So ignore today’s ridiculous all-time high stock prices. They can’t last in the face of what’s coming.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at

To the many worried folks who have reached out via email, social media, and in the site comments – Chris and I are well.
You’re kind to be so concerned for us.
But don’t worry! We’re still here and busier than ever following & synthesizing the coronavirus developments and then distilling out the insights we think are most important for you to know about.
We’re juggling this with a number of other important PP projects, which – I won’t lie – is making getting time to sleep (or shower) more than a small challenge.
So don’t worry too much if we’re a little tardy with a new post. It means we’re making progress on those other PP improvements (one example: optimizing website stability and speed, given the recent spike in traffic to the Or that we’re investing in a little shut-eye so that we can keep up this crazy pace.
You have our commitment that we’ll remain glued here, offering continued coverage of the pandemic threat until we calculate it’s no longer a material public health emergency.
Which we truly hope happens as soon as possible.

Thanks for this update. You guys are carrying a heavy load keeping all the rest of us informed. I appreciate you. Take time to take care!! Best always.

Not sure how valid this is, and it may have been posted on one of the other threads prior. Seems relevant and very possible. I am trying to procure the original link.

34,958 of which 6,106 in severe condition Deaths: 724



Adam, in my opinion, you hit this right on the head. How this can be anything other than devastating for the global economy is beyond me. I am just amazed at my family and friends that want to say that they don’t feel threatened by the virus (I think to myself, just wait) and have not given a thought to the worldwide economic and supply implications.
To me, that image in another thread of the bus driver without even a mask sitting next to someone in appearing to be in full gear says it all.

When considering various man made virus possibilities, is there only a single sequence that everyone is analyzing? For example, the retracted Indian paper discussed 4 likely short inserts and Dr. James Lyons Weiler pointed out a different type of insert with high homology to pShuttle vector technology and SARS spike protein. I’m wondering how the two groups can look at the exact same sequence and find such markedly different anomalies? Is this like some kind of weird Rorschach test for geneticists where you find what think you’ll find?

Chris, You and Adam are dangerous people! Your Wikipedia page has already been deleted. Will the tech giants try to stifle your speech further? YouTube is owned by Google. Will they try to curtail your platform? Have you considered other options? As long as they tolerate your message, you should continue using their services; however, once the plug is pulled, you’ll not have that option anymore. doesn’t censure material. I’d recommend investigating this source - just in case.
Also, Google isn’t the only search engine out there. There are many others that do a great job. I like because they don’t track me! I still use Google Earth, but I try to limit my exposure to Google as much as possible.
Just my 2 cents,

I found this article to be of interest. It bogs down a bit with a–for me–in a too-technical discussion of various types of aircraft, but you can skim over that part.

Death rate in Wuhan climbs to 4.9%

Again, contradicting the numbers and the official government dictated 2.1 percent mortality rate, she said the death rate in Hubei Province is 3.1 percent. She then added that Wuhan had the highest mortality rate in the province at 4.9 percent, and claimed the rate of death in the rest of the province had dropped by 0.16 percent. ================================

Critics Say China Has Suppressed And Censored Information In Coronavirus Outbreak

China's state censors have clamped down this week on digital items related to the outbreak of a new coronavirus, removing local news reports that expose the dire circumstances in the city of Wuhan, epicenter of the outbreak, and scrubbing social media platforms of posts from Wuhan residents who say they are ill and desperate for medical care and supplies. ===========================

Concerns mount about coronavirus spreading in hospitals, study suggests

The study, published in the medical journal JAMA on Friday, involved analyzing data on 138 patients hospitalized with novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia in Wuhan, China. The data showed that hospital-related transmissions of the virus were suspected in about 41% of the patients.
Specifically, 40 health care workers in the study and 17 patients who were already hospitalized for other reasons were presumed to have been infected with the novel coronavirus in the hospital, the data showed, also revealing that 26% of all the patients were admitted to an intensive care unit and 4.3% died.

The coronavirus is already hurting the world economy. Here's why it could get really scary

"A severe pandemic would resemble a global war in its sudden, profound, and widespread impact," the World Bank assessed in a report on pandemics from 2013. (The Wuhan coronavirus has not been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization.)

‘Crisis mode’: Coronavirus disrupts the heart of electronics manufacturing in China

How delays could cascade

The supply chain has already been disrupted with the week-long delay to factories re-opening, said Sherina Kamal, risk analyst at Resillience 360, a logistics risk-management company backed by DHL. “The ripple effect coming from one region in China is completely unprecedented,” Kamal said. “We’ve never seen anything like this.” ==========================

'Patients are on edge': Coronavirus fears trigger a run on masks, gloves and other gear

At Wolkar Pharmacy in Baxter Springs, Kansas, pharmacist Brian Caswell can’t keep enough respiratory masks on his shelves.

“We’ve had families come in and buy everything we’ve had,” Caswell said. “Patients are on edge, and they’re preparing.” ========================= Over 400 Companies Have Warned Of The Impact Coronavirus Could Have On First Quarter Earnings =====================

France to close two schools near ski resort after coronavirus cases

PARIS (Reuters) - Two schools near a French ski resort where five Britons have been diagnosed with the new coronavirus will be shut next week as authorities try to determine with whom those infected had been in contact, a regional health official said. Eleven Britons, including the five who tested positive for the virus, are being examined in local hospitals. ==========================

Coronavirus has spurred 'unprecedented' wave of US flight cancellations, analyst says

Data from the U.S. Department of Transportation suggests that cancelled flights between U.S. cities and China and Hong Kong are costing the airlines between $313,000 to $1.1 million for each day those flights are cancelled, depending on the carrier. ======================

Deadliest day for coronavirus as mainland China records 86 fatalities

To stop the virus from spreading further, Beijing has taken the unprecedented step of trying to quarantine entire cities in Hubei. About 60 million people are under various travel restrictions, as roads are blocked, train stations closed and flights canceled. The Chinese government has issued new regulations to severely punish people who disrupt the epidemic control work. Those who violate the rules will be subject to speedy arrests and sentences, and even the death penalty.

Everything is so happy here, with the happy headline: “Wuhan combs communities to leave no coronavirus patient unattended”.
Notice below the video that Xinhua is funded by the Chines Government

Oh no! What happened to the happy music? Here they come to take me away.

Lets see…Do we end up here?
Maybe here:

No free speech unless it’s happy speech:

China tightens censorship on coronavirus as authorities boost propaganda

The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC)
announced on Wednesday
that it punished a range of platforms and publishing accounts. CAC said it “supervised and guided” companies that include Sina, Tencent and Bytedance -- the owners of some of the country’s most popular social platforms (Weibo, WeChat and Douyin/TikTok respectively). It also said it punished a number of accounts for “independently reporting against regulations” and spreading false information, but didn’t specify how.

Chris and Adam - you guys are the best. We SO appreciate what you are doing, and sharing with all of us. A question here that you may have dealt with and I didn’t catch it, but Chris said that the quarantined ship would give us good data. I’m wondering if that has to be qualified with the petrie dish effect, in that the infection rate is likely to be much higher among people who can’t get away from each other or from their common restricted environment? Also, do they have more or less of medical equipment to deal with infections as they arise, and hazmat clothing for the caregivers?
And on another note, the lock-down of China is just the largest and most visible shock to the global supply chain. The fires in California have all but disappeared down the memory hole, and even Australia’s fires are getting less attention, but apart from the natural and human tragedies involved, these are also massive blows to the supply chain. I regularly buy certain dried fruits from a bulk supplier - can’t get them now, on hold indefinitely - fires in California. Just a small example.

The Pandemic Isn't Ending, It's Just the Beginning of Global Disorder and Depression

Charles Hugh Smith. Of Two Minds [abbreviated slightly]
When you've been lied to, you've been betrayed. Betrayal has consequences.
Unsurprisingly, denying the pandemic is unstoppable and consequential is the order of the day: authorities everywhere are terrified these realities might leak through all their oh-so-obviously desperate firewalls and filters. Why are they terrified? Because they know the entire global economy, including the linchpin Chinese and U.S. economies, was extremely fragile before the pandemic arose: why else the panic-stimulus and panic-repo policies of the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China in the pre-pandemic months of Q4 2019?
And so everything is covered up, and if that doesn't work, then outright denial is the default policy. The number of cases globally is absurdly understated, the number of deaths in China is absurdly under-reported, and so on.
But the biggest denial campaign is aimed at masking the fragility of the global economy, as the only thing keeping the rickety, speculative-bubble, insolvent global economy from imploding is the belief and confidence of the masses that everything is going swimmingly, so keep on borrowing, borrowing, borrowing, buying, buying, buying and speculating, speculating, speculating.
While the real-world battle to limit the spread of the virus in China gets the headlines, the battle inside your head to maintain your confidence in the system is just as important....
The key dynamic in recessions and depressions is confidence: confidence that the condo you buy today will be worth a lot more tomorrow, the business investment you make today will generate higher profits tomorrow, your job benefits will increase tomorrow, your house value will rise tomorrow, and so on.
Once confidence in ever-higher wages, benefits, sales, profits and speculative gains withers, all bets are off. The loss of confidence is akin to a loss of faith or loss of credibility: none of these can be restored overnight.
Once your trust in authorities has been shattered by gross incompetence, authoritarian suppression and a laughably unbelievable tsunami of lies, you don't wake up the next morning with your trust in bogus statistics and reassurances fully restored.
Confidence [is] replaced by uncertainty, anxiety and fear.
The tragic irony is that Chinese authorities hid the epidemic to save political face, but their increasingly transparent lies and desperation are destroying what little international credibility remained after their attempt to save political face blew up. Rather than saving face, they've lost the last shreds of credibility they still possessed.
Here's how contagious viruses spread: a traveler who has the virus but doesn't yet have any symptoms rubs his nose beneath his mask and then takes the bus ticket and hands it to the driver. Then the traveler grabs the handrail in the bus, leaving viral particles. Later, in another bus station's bathroom, he lifts his mask because it's hot and uncomfortable and sneezes. Hundreds of other travelers pass through the bathroom within hours.
With the loss of trust and faith comes disorder.

The 2020 US Census results will shape democratic government representation and allocation of trillions of dollars in government resources, infrastructure development, and more for the next decade. US residents should be receiving info by mail in March, including on-line and mail-in options for completing the Census survey.
The US Census will be in full swing by spring and summer. By then, US nCoV pandemic spread and severity should become apparent to all, with response systems established and perhaps strained to overwhelmed. The Census could be the US equivalent to the Chinese Lunar New Year as a catalyst for country-wide nCoV exposure and infection.
I hope Census workers will be appropriately trained re: nCoV and equipped with PPE as they spread out across the country gathering data–and possibly spreading the virus–via person-to-person contact. (Will they also be “taking temperatures” as part of a public health service?) This will make them all the less welcome by many residents.
I plan to complete my survey on-line or by mail and will be encouraging family and friends to do so as well.
Some key dates to consider (source):
Census workers will be out in force for three days (March 30 - April 1) to count the homeless “…people in shelters, at soup kitchens and mobile food vans, on the streets, and at non-sheltered, outdoor locations such as tent encampments.”
In April, Census workers will be visiting “…college students who live on campus, people living in senior centers, and others who live among large groups of people.”
May - July, Census workers will visit homes of non-respondents.

Coronavirus: Chinese officials scrambling to keep food flowing to cities on lockdown

I sell chemicals for a living to various manufacturing sectors. A lot of global chemical production is in China. Before LNY I was getting quotes and email reply’s within 24 hours. Since then I have not received a single response to our inquiries. Other importers I know are reporting the same thing. Specifically, a partner in Wuhan and another outside of Shanghai have gone radio silent. The products we import go into everything from machine grease, metal working fluids, food preservatives, nylon, inks, paint, transportation lubricants etc. I can think of at least 3 products where there is zero production capacity outside of China anymore due to their scale and competitiveness. I’m sure there are many many more products across all industries where that is true. Remember too that in addition to their exports, there are also essentials they must import that are not reaching their population of 1.4 billion people. I don’t know how this plays out, but I know it will be a disruption like I’ve never seen in my career. Hedge now before your neighbors notice.

The global economy is not just important for financial reasons as Sandpuppy points out above. It is an integral part of our civilization. Just as a fabric thread is woven into a carpet so is the global economy a critical facet of modern life. So what we face is not just an economic disruption but potentially a civilizational collapse. Coming to an understanding about the behaviour of complex systems and in particular the nature of tipping points was a key motivation for me to radically change lifestyle and move to a rural homestead back in 2011.
The following is part of an article by David Korowicz written in 2014. It is titled Catastrophic Shocks Through Complex Socio-Economic Systems:
A Pandemic Perspective andcan be downloaded free from his website
To briefly summarize Korowicz explains why, beyond a certain threshold of impact, you can’t necessarily restart the economy again after an epidemic runs its course
7. Recovery & Recursion Failure
… once supply-chain failure starts to go
critical, the removal of the primary cause does not allow the immediate resumption of socio-economic activity. Why?
The disruption could have pushed companies into bankruptcy, and purchasing power in the economy would
be lost as trade collapsed. Failures in critical infrastructure including payment might also occur. More generally there would be an intertwined supply and demand collapse.
More broadly, if an economy was shattered, and its forward looking viability looked both precarious and uncertain one would expect a collapse in the value of a country’s currency. Rather than helping exports (which
would be very little because the economy’s productive capacity had collapsed), it would hinder imports of
emergency supplies and make debt in external currencies much more difficult to service. The economic damage and reduced economic prospects may then cause tightened credit conditions, spiraling bond yields and
systemic bank failure.
There are also issues that are most pertinent for more complex societies. We imagine that after a pandemic
wave people are again available for work. But people cannot however become productive immediately because other inputs are also needed. But those inputs are stalled because they rely upon other inputs and so
on. More broadly we may define Recursion failure as: “the inability of a complex economy to easily resume
production and trade after a significant collapse because in a complex and interdependent economy, production and trade must resume in order for production and trade to resume”.
Further even if a government wanted to rebuild, it may be too complex to orchestrate resumption from the
top down. This is firstly because the economy has evolved by self-organization, nobody has ever had, nor
could they have put its elements together in the first place. Secondly, even if it could be done, the systems of
command, control and supply that might do it would be the very systems that had been undermined.
Over time entropy would become an issue as engines rust, reagents become contaminated, and expected
maintenance and repairs are left undone. This would all add to the cost and inputs needed for resumption. In
a more complex society the degradation rate may be higher for thermodynamic reasons.
Overall, we are saying the longer a socio-economic system spends in the critical regime, the more likely it is
to undergo a complete systemic collapse and loss of basic function. In addition, the longer it spends in this
state, the more difficult it may be to ever return to its pre-pandemic state.
This is a complex society’s equivalent of a heart attack. When a person has a heart attack, there is a brief
period during which CPR can revive the person. But beyond a certain point when there has been cascading
failure in co-dependent life support systems, the person cannot be revived. This means that the socio-economic system could be changed irretrievably and the job of society and government would be to both manage the crisis and plot a fundamentally different path.

This story I want to relate is one that belongs in the category of " I don’t know if this information has any relationship to the Coronavirus research that was conducted in China" but it might be one small missing part of the puzzle so I will tell it here anyway.
I am a Canadian who lived in Nairobi between September 2018 and November 2019. I was there full time for about 14 months in other words. I was domiciled in a State House Road compound near the University of Nairobi for most of my visit.
When I first arrived there I was really impressed by how many fruit bats were active each evening and so spent a lot of time observing them while I had my evening cigarettes. In my compound there was a towering 10 or 12 story tree that the Ethiopians call a Shola and these trees produce copious amounts of fruit that hang from the trunk and branches. I don’t know what the Kenyans call that kind of tree but they have an enormous canopy and this one was buzzing with hundreds of bats every night as they feasted on the fruit.
Sometime in February or March 2019 (I cannot recall the exact date and did not record it unfortunately) the bats abruptly disappeared. Not a few either. It was all of them vanishing (100%) over the course of a few nights except one solitary bat that returned each evening and chirped incessantly over her missing colony.
So I began to ask questions of the locals thinking that maybe someone had blocked a chimney or attic in the neighborhood and trapped them in an attempt at extermination. Nobody knew anything and the local Kenyans I spoke to were dismissive and disinterested saying things like maybe they just flew away to another tree. Few were even aware that the colony existed or how busy it had been. But the fruit season had not ended and the tree was still brimming with food so I was pretty unsatisfied with the answers received.
So I looked at the local roof tops and could not see any blocked chimneys. But I also noticed that the neighboring trees also no longer had bat colonies. So this was not a problem on one single compound or just one tree but rather an neighborhood wide event. I remained there for another 10 months and in all that time the bats never returned ruling out the possibility that it was merely a migration of some sort that had taken place.
And why does this matter? Well its only now after reading so much about Coronavirus research that I am starting to try and put two and two together and wondering out loud if those bats were not in fact captured for research and possibly even transported out of Kenya. I honestly do not know. But maybe someone else reading this post does have another piece of information that can connect the missing bats of Nairobi to a local cull of wildlife that were possibly used for virus research purposes.
If anyone does know, by all means please speak up.


China blocks restart of Foxconn plants due to coronavirus: sources

Move further disrupts production of Apple, Amazon and Huawei devices

LAULY LI, COCO LIU and CHENG TING-FANG, Nikkei staff writersFEBRUARY 08, 2020 16:45 JST UPDATED ON FEBRUARY 09, 2020 01:26 JST
This will have a huge impact on global supply chains.
The market is providing a gift for those wanting to get out at bubble prices.
Insiders know what’s coming too.