https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2020/0207/1113879-bats-town-australia/
Thanks for the link. I will read this evening. These are exactly the kinds of thoughts that have been in my mind the past few days. I wonder if these days might be the last of “normal”.
https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1226254545308803072?s=21
https://www.biancoresearch.com/coronavirus-what-panic
Sorry, i live in Europe and i see no possibility to hide an epidemie. We saw in China that after running one month (December 2019) the rows in front the hospitals started to mount. I see none of that.
I also believe that corona is rendered ineffective with higher temperatures. China is biding time with the isolation until warmer weather arrives.
So the problems i see are mostly economically. Supply shortages will no doubt cause pain. And yes, one moment, sooner or later, the rotting financial system will go down. But timing is difficult.
The intersections of disease and civilization change history’s direction.
My 15yo grandson asked me what I thought about the coronavirus outbreak and how it might affect us. My analogy was that the world economy is a race horse and the horse just developed heart problems. If the horse stumbles and falls while running, then it may well not get back up to finish this race.
History doesn’t repeat, but it sure can harmonize.
The great influenza of 1918 had a huge impact on the world just on the heels of WWI losses. I have yet to explore how that affected the direction of history. At this point I’m just thankful that all my grandparents survived it. Thank you Chris for that good interview with John Barry who wrote ‘The Great Influenza’.
Another disastrous disease that is often overlooked is the bubonic plague. Twenty five million people died from a flea spread bacterium. It was spread by shipping routes and ship rats. Rome, Persia and Byzantium lost so many people that they became much weaker and susceptible to the spread of Islam whose members camped in the wild and didn’t use ships for travel. During the summer of 542 the city of Constantinople lost 5000 citizens a day to the disease. A great book on this subject is ‘Justinian’s Flea’ by William Rosen.
None of us can know the future, but only head burying ostriches could think that this [maybe temporary] shutdown of China will have no affect on our daily lives.
Thank you Adam and Chris
I learned from you that nCoV binds to ACE II receptor sites in the lungs.
So I did a little googling (see below) and ended up writing myself a prescription for Losartan (angiotensin converting enzyme blocker or ARB). I’m an older white male at greater risk.
ARBs (angiotensin receptor blockers are meds that lower blood pressure) have been shown to markedly lower coronavirus fatality rates in mice.
The virus latches onto angiotensin II receptor sites on the surface of the cells in the lung and then its RNA gains entry. The virus then replicates inside the cell, but inflammation is decreased as angiotensin II is blocked and not released. This is not inflammation related to fighting the virus.
February’s issue of Lancet is devoted to nCoV and one article describes nCoV as creating a “cytokine storm”. Angiotensin II is a powerful pro inflammatory hormone that does just that.
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
ARBs do not lower your immune reaction to the virus. It does however prolong the process (by decreasing the damage caused by angiotensin II mediated inflammation) providing time for the body to mobilize T and B cells in this effort, enabling recovery.
The following are some helpful websites that address the role of ARBs.
from Sept 2019
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337129671_Influenza_pandemic_preparedness_A_special_challenge_for_India
Notice the country from which all the below PubMed.gov articles originated
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Chang_Li3/publication/272078933_Angiotensin_II_receptor_blocker_as_a_novel_therapy_in_acute_lung_injury_induced_by_avian_influenza_A_H5N1_virus_infection_in_mouse/links/568bc76108ae8f6ec7522e78/Angiotensin-II-receptor-blocker-as-a-novel-therapy-in-acute-lung-injury-induced-by-avian-influenza-A-H5N1-virus-infection-in-mouse.pdf?origin=publication_detail
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25655897
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24800825
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25391767
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16001071
Most developed states/nations track on a weekly/monthly basis existing flu cases, and the health departments publish this data online. For example the last 10 years of influenza data from my state can be found here:
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/Influenza/Pages/reports.aspx
Now that data is not perfect, we want to know about a corona virus, not influenza, but what it does give us is data on the months for the largest amount of cases, and the regions in which get it more, so we have a rough template as to how it will spread. I can see an increase in cases in the colder months, and I see locations where it happens.
I suggest you take some time find your state records for influenza and make your own growth map as to the possible outbreak of corona.
Your comment dated Saturday, February 8 is the same as the one which was issued yesterday, Friday, February 7. Was this an error? Did you paste the wrong comment? You describe it at the beginning as being recorded on Friday, February 7, so I can only think this is a mistake.
Thanks
Of all the info shared around here in recent days, that image is the first one to make me weep.
The pain it represents is beyond imagining.
God help the people of China. God help us all.
Not long ago peak prosperity old timers discussed investing in primary (vs secondary and tertiary) assets. Last weekend the individual farming our property asked me what primary assets were worth without individuals to ‘work’ them. Think about it. No one to farm farms. No roughnecks to put natural gas in the pipelines or liquid fuels in our vehicles. No one to move food to your grocery store. No renters for your real estate. Primary assets only have value in a functioning society.
2019-nCoV has the potential to change the landscape. Thetallestmanonearth provided a really great post regarding the real world and shared sage advice: hedge now.
Here’s my take away:
- Masks, gloves, UV-lamps and elderberry are great deterrents, but I am assuming most of us will catch this bug and your age, general health, and genes will dictate your chances of survival (hospitals will be overwhelmed and not in the survival probability mix).
- Isolation for extended periods of time, from my perspective, offer the best chances of getting through this. If you are living in remote Wyoming, you have a great chance of ducking this pandemic. If you are in a large Blue city - good luck.
- Stop thinking of storing lots of dried-canned-frozen food. Start growing your food. Get off the food grid and grow your own.
My gut says things will grind to a halt worldwide. We will no longer be thinking about shorting the market or the price of gold - it won’t matter (for now). For the past decade Chris has talked (hammered) preparations for the individual. No more beta testing - this is the real deal.
For those who are interested, Bitcoin just pushed through the $10K range.
No thanks on the Bitcoin. But rhodium’s getting close to 10,000 at $9,500 and it’s something tangible that you can actually hold in your hand. Here may be one factor driving its price:
|
I believe the bitcoin rally is all about evading capital controls - first in China, and then worldwide. Once the pandemic hits the third world, their economies will be hit the hardest, and their currencies will tank, and their governments will impose capital controls in order to stop the currency collapse.
My theory anyway. So big money is front-running the rush to get bitcoin in order to evade the coming capital control regime.
Thanks for that link AO. Why does it not surprise me. We have been watching the Chinese response to their domestic epidemic with growing alarm for the past month already and are only now acknowledging why the mobilization has been so extreme and overwhelming.
They knew from the outset what had been unleashed prematurely in their own backyard and have gone into panic mode to put the disease back in the bottle.
I do not doubt for a second that this illness was bioengineered to kill China’s enemies and adversaries (that would be us) or as a means to depopulate parts of the world they covet for its resources (and that would be Africa).
Why can we not just say what is obviously on all our minds? The Chinese military has sought to create a deadly weapon that would give it a battlefield advantage without having to fire a single shot. But they made a huge mistake by forgetting that bats fly and their creation would escape containment on wings.
Live by the sword and die by the sword is the appropriate expression here. That power hungry Communist regime is indeed bent on global dominance and can never be trusted from today onward.
Let’s hope the Chinese people themselves take matters into their own hands and permanently end the pathetic dictatorship of Xi and his CCP before they bring anymore hardship on the rest of the planet.
We are hardly out of the woods. Next winter it will be our turn in the West to battle this illness for better or for worse and we already know a vaccine will still not be ready by then.
This was truly a crime against humanity.
A Great video from a Professor in the UK.
https://www.ccn.com/professor-says-coronavirus-infecting-50000-day-he-may-be-right/