km64, Thank you! I’m reposting here your the link to this very moving, sobering and on-point article:
Fighting Suicide in the Midst of a Pandemic
https://www.intellectualtakeout.org/fighting-suicide-in-the-midst-of-a-pandemic/
PP members, please take heart and share. Thank you!
Sorry this is second hand, but my wife and I got a phone call today from an old friend who has been living in Utah for a few years. She has an auto immune issue so is very worried about exposure to this virus. A few days ago she came down with a low grade fever, (Not that uncommon for her, but given the current concern…), so she called her Doctor to get his advice on if she should go and get a test for COVID-19 at one of the new drive thru stations. She said her Doctor actually yelled “NO!” He went on to explain that, due to short supplies, test personnel are not changing their gloves between patients unless the patient knows enough to request it, and although the testers are wearing masks, they are having to lean into each car to obtain the samples for testing, (and very few in their cars use any PPE). Car after car after car. Her Doctor was in a political fight with administrators because these drive through test, as they are being run in that area, are as good as being a drive through delivery system for the virus, and he knew this was to be avoided by his patient, our friend, at all costs because of her pre-existing condition.
Another example of ‘it seemed like a good idea at the time’, or ‘we may not have thought that one through’.
I have actually been sick for 4 days. Its definitely a respiratory deal. and today was first day with unbelievable weakness and fatigue , though the cough and tennis ball in chest feel has improved. no fever yet. but did have loss of appetite only today.
Anyhow my doctor wanted me to go one of these drive-through temp testing places that they are supposed to open sat in my area… he said what could it hurt… well my exact thought, if they are no using best hygiene during collection it can be a real mess. Second , after doing a bit a research in my state - these are not test kits they are using - they are just collection swabs - basically they collecting them and only processing the ones for people who meet a criteria…and are sick what>??? so know you dont have real testing just fantasy testing… and which is nothing more than collection to put you at risk… WTF . never the less… my risk exposure was my mail carrier on a windy day… I was down wind without a mask - thought i would maintain a distance but he wanted me to hand my packages to him… and he shouted - when he realized how heavy there were…almost dropping them at me feet. ( a moment in lapse of judgement ) it takes just a moment to leave the house without a mask… If I survive this and its not the covid… ( make note the mail carrier had no PPE and was coming in close enough contact with, mail carriers are the hub of the community. ) I will not leave the house at all without ppe - even to go to my mail box bank at the end of the street. You never know who or what you will encounter.
I have to concur - there is no real balance, what we must do is a sacrifice. We can live with a slow economy. One were we go without a lot things we are accustom to. However, even if we are far from social unrest, once the food supply is grossly interrupted - the real crises begins. Hence Dr Martenson’s recent premium video. Which I didnt see because because I am a poor cheap disabled slob.
But, regarding your observation- the way I see , is we cannot make this choice of balancing or sacrifice, it will be made by the people ultimately. The governors can give us the green light to go back to work, however, there will be a tipping point when too many are sick and dying and healthcare is no longer available, that each man for himself scenario will arise. Meaning, you are not going to go to work and risk your life and throw caution to the wind, hoping most will just be a little sick. You will want to protect yourself and your family by whatever means possible. You are not going to sacrifice your life - neither will others… EVEN if they know, that there will be greater pain later for the current actions. We have been doing this with the economy for years and we dont want to take our medicine now and are content knowing it going to hurt much worse later… and we seem not to care about the later. we only seem to act on the now. ( part of peak prosperity’s goal is to steer you through this type of human behavior ) SO, even though people know there will be food shortages, they will believe there will be some solution down the road when that arises… And to some degree there will be, and to some degree there will be a lot of death and possible social unrest as well. You cannot make people risk their lives to see who the 2 or is it 3 - or is it 4 or 10 % will be that parish. Look at the Drs and nurses now… questioning their dedication to sacrifice their lives potentially. what about other essential workers like the postal workers… it wont be long now before we see something big happen with those… – and if you put everyone back to work and let this burn for economy sake… you will see when the postal workers start to die and farmers and food packers etc… to do their jobs… it will all stop… you will not see product anywhere… so killing the economy and pulling the plug to flatten the curve comes first… the economy takes a much farther back seat. I think we have room to shut it down even more. In fact my belief is we should shut it down 110% everything. Everthing!!!.., all stores, food stores, government offices, schools, banks, everything, even power grid workers ( even if it means no electric ) Shut it all down for 8 weeks. Hospitals too… no new patients. everyone on 100% complete utter house arrest. no interaction of anykind. 8-12 weeks later - the disease should be completely burned out except for something in the freezer ( which is possible could escape again. ) but by the time it cycled back up we would have a good 6-8 mos of productivity and hopefully closer to a solutions and know how to immediately shut it down again… what we are doing now is a slow burn … the two alternate theories a fast burn and a zero burn… I think the zero burn total lockdown everything - would have the absolute least impact. People should have prepared for at least 12 weeks self sufficiency. The CDC even told people to prepare for interruptions, if these people didnt, they are morons… find family or freinds that have a little extra… all Mormons , are taught to have 6 mos or more provisions on hand… there are many other preppers in the country, who knew sooner or later something like this would hit… So, I think there are lot more people prepared, but people dont know how long they need their provisions… if we had a finite day… I think people would manage… we keep setting back the day - as we are going backwards even with flattening the curve. Its far from enough. but the answer is definitely not to light up the economy. that would end just one way… NO one wants to be the sacrifice for the economy.
as another commentor put it earlier today, If you went to a restaurant that seated 100 people and the greeter/server said to you… - “We have an active shooter situation today, but dont worry its not serious - only 4 dead and 20 wounded” would you want to dine there? (we dont want to lose business and make you starve) every restaurant becomes an active shooter scenario as does every other operating business./ ( that is the realization that will happen when you turn the lights fully on. )
Gaia’s Garden is one of the Permaculture bibles. In it, the author, Toby Hemenway, made an honest assessment. He estimated that Permaculturists, produce, at best, 25% of their needs.
For the last couple of years, I’ve participated in the local harvest. The harvest labor shortage, at least in Central Wisconsin, has been dire. The hours are long, the work is dirty and the pay is laughable, but I seem to have a need to contribute.
The farm I’ve been working for is a family owned business that centers around potato farming, but is in all sectors of farming. Despite it’s family ownership it is a very large “factory farm.” Last year, we only harvested 8,500 acres of potatoes, because the planting weather was bad and didn’t allow the 9,500 acres that they normally grow. They also broker 10% of the potatoes grown in the US.
I was one of 40-45 potato truck drivers. In two months, I hauled in the ballpark of 6,000,000 lbs of potatoes from the field to storage. I estimated my best day at 750,000 lbs, in one day, and I drive one of the “smaller” trucks.
The point is 7.5 billion people will not grow all their own food. Back yard gardens will produce some of the food that an individual household needs, but we need the big farms to survive, at least for a while.
And that’s just farms. There are other critical portions of the economy that we need for civilization to survive.
I realize that civilization may not survive, but I for one, am more than willing to do my part to see that it does survive, at least in some form.
518 tested positive…
https://www.ibtimes.com/meatpacker-smithfield-foods-becomes-largest-covid-19-hotspot-us-518-employees-testing-2960006
Meatpacking company Smithfield Foods has reportedly become the nation’s largest hotspot for the coronavirus, where 518 employees have tested positive for COVID-19.
I’ll let people with the data and more time on their hands to offer proof of this profs theory.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/
A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it.
The governor ought to be working with the Feds to make sure green card workers will be available in a timely fashion. It’s a known issue with some added problems with COVID19.
I would write your representatives at all levels with this concern, to make sure it’s dealt with soon, rather than when the moment comes.
I’m having trouble maintaining focus, keeping a positive mood and keeping an optimistic outlook.
I’m having trouble when I’ve still got a work from home job, have food to last another month without grocery shopping and was generally a loner to begin with.
I don’t know how people with less are managing. The mental strain could result in far more deaths than the virus.
I will say, part of my mental health protection is avoiding the doom-n-gloom online (which is why I do not post here very much anymore.) I’ve tapered off the news as much as I can while still maintaining some situational awareness of what’s happening (local/state/region/country/world.)
It’s not easy, but when I focus on what I can do I feel better than focusing on what I have no control over.
I think a simpler explaination is that the Chinese goalseeked numbers become overwhelmed by the world numbers, plus a secondary timing effect with different countries ramping up. Also I’d recommend adding a lag for the various numbers as people take longer to recover than “not recover”.
Km64,
I believe the last two paragraphs said all I needed about the good mathematician in the article you linked : -
Barbash, speaking after Ben-Israel had left the studio, insisted that “we’re going to be living with the coronavirus for the next year.” He added: “I strongly urge that we not let mathematicians — who know nothing about biology — determine when we lift the lockdown.”Fin
Chris referred to the idea that banks are expected to be in trouble as loans default, and that he expects the Fed to bail them out. I suggest that bank ‘bail-ins’ are also a distinct possibility and those who hold deposits in banks (in all countries) should be prepared for this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWDx3nKm_Gc&t=116s&fbclid=IwAR1B4byyr1BucUo8J6WgN-x-0C5hOSmjchWzINmyiD25B6zrHKT_9Ah6A00
I love the sign on his wall “well that was a shit idea”
Good points, Les. Especially grains and legumes - large acreages are definitely needed for the gargantuan population numbers we’ve generated in the last hundred years. I’m guessing that Chris’ next piece about the food crisis deals with this? Unfortunately I’ve been blocked from accessing that part of the site - it appears to have decided I’m both a member and not a member, and keeps tossing me back and forth between the two requirements. I can get in here, and comment, but nowhere later than here. Anyone else having this problem???
oregonlive.com news site called for pic submissions of quarantine hair cuts. SOOO great! Living west of the Rockies is definitely liberating. Many women are shaving their heads and guys getting colorized. Teenagers even letting Mom cut their hair!
My 20 yo son is getting shaggy and hating it. He’s allowing me to take hair clippers to him later. Luckily he’s fine with just buzzing it down to a #3 all around.
Talk about brave!
I think this blog is worth following closely:
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/04/17/whats-happening-with-remdesivir
All of us commenting here are members of the site, but some of us who cant afford it are not paying members with access to teh premium memebers sections
If this was an answer to my question, then I am a paid up “premium” member. My paid membership lapsed for a week or so, as the site doesn’t warn you when that happens, but it’s paid again now and I am still not allowed in for that article. I don’t know how long it takes for the gods in the machine to recognize payment these days, but it used to be instant. Not any more. I just wondered if this was a general site glitch or if it’s just tripping over me for some reason. I’ve put a query in to the support email, and also the online form, but no response yet beyond “ticket numbers”. I guess if nothing has happened by the end of the weekend I’ll have to make a lot more noise.
Actually, A LOT more noise. I have since discovered that I did, in fact, have an automatic membership renewal take effect on April 5th. It seems I’ve had a double membership. One of them lapsed today (although I was cut off yesterday), and the other one renewed 10 days ago. But I’m still cut off. Houston, we have a problem…
CHRIS OR SOMEONE - please take a look and unlock my membership PLEASE!